We're Going To Need A Bigger Playoff
College football may be dropping traditions left and right but one will always remain: Bill Hancock being trotted out to endorse a reconfiguration of college football he'd spent years decrying.
“This proposal at its heart was created to provide more participation for more players and more schools,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock said. “In a nutshell, that is the working group’s message: more participation.”
We may not get Texas-Texas A&M or Oklahoma-Nebraska anymore, but we'll always have the greatest rivalry: Hancock now vs Hancock five minutes ago.
Anyway, the reconfiguration in bullet points:
- 12-team field.
- The 6 highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids.
- The 6 highest-ranked non-champions get at-large bids.
- The top four conference champions get byes.
- The first round is at home sites. Quarters, semis, and the final are at bowl sites.
- There is no re-seeding to avoid rematches or intraconference matchups.
To the takes machine!
[After THE JUMP: maybe talk to Bob Homegames next time]
Twelve is the right number. Any playoff expansion was going to come with a Group of Five bid. Expanding to eight functionally adds in the Pac-12 champ, a G5 team, the second-best SEC team, and then a single wildcard (which could easily be another SEC team). That doesn't do much to solve the problem that CFB currently has where the whole point of the season is the playoff and the vast majority of college football knows it has a 0% chance of making it in.
Sixteen, meanwhile, is too big. We have a local example of why. The final playoff rankings that year featured Michigan at #14 and Notre Dame at #15. The 2019 Michigan team is the one that lost 35-14 to Wisconsin and 56-27 to OSU. They also lost a game to PSU. Their main accomplishments were that grim 10-3 win over Iowa and a random firebombing of, yep, Notre Dame. The idea that Michigan team—which went 2-3 against ranked teams and was largely uncompetitive in two of those games—would make it in rankles. And ND would slide in right behind them.
Matt Hinton has pointed out that these sorts of analyses assume that the CFP committee rankings, meaningless past #4, are well thought-out…
Two things about retrofitting the 12-team format to past seasons: 1) 2020 was in no way a representative season for anyone, especially not for the Pac-12, and 2) Committee rankings beyond the top 4 in any given season might have been very different if they'd actually mattered
— Matt Hinton (@MattRHinton) June 10, 2021
…but it's not like there are appealing options past 15 most years that might get elevated. The 2019 options just outside a hypothetical 16 team playoff are Iowa and Minnesota.
Twelve excludes teams that had almost universally bleh seasons, aside from the occasional one-loss G5 team that doesn't have a marquee win. It also preserves some of the urgency of the regular season by dangling the carrot of a bye in front of teams.
Why is this happening? Obvious:
…here’s the bottom line: 44 programs would’ve reached the College Football Playoff at least once over a 10-year period. And that’s why they’re expanding.
“One of the things we were responding to was the concentration that’s occurred: 78.5 percent of all the opportunities in the first seven years have gone to five teams,” Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said Thursday.
Michigan's part in this is minor and rather said, but they land home games in 2016 (#6, playing Florida State) and 2018 (#7, playing #10 Florida*). At least we're not Texas, which didn't make the field once in this thought exercise.
*[You can change college football into a 30-on-30 game played only on moons of Saturn and Michigan will be handed a matchup with Florida.]
The format can get weird. This is mostly an Alabama problem, because when Alabama doesn't win the SEC they generally get dropped to the #5 slot, causing the #4 team to swear extensively at the prospect of getting the Tide at a neutral site a week after they kicked a G5 team's face in. This is most notable in 2017, when Alabama got dropped out of the SEC title game by an Iron Bowl loss. They made the CFP anyway and won the title win wins over Clemson and Georgia; in this format they get dropped to #5, facing UCF and then Ohio State.
Finally, Notre Dame gets boned. After years of skating along as a coddled independent handed exceptions, this plan would ban Notre Dame (and other independents) from byes. Jack Swarbrick is salty:
When asked about not having a bye, ND AD Jack Swarbrick said "I look forward to never hearing again about how we played one less game or don't have a conference championship."
— Heather Dinich (@CFBHeather) June 10, 2021
I plan on bringing that up constantly anyway.
What is with these guys and bowl games? This edition of the playoff has at least four too many games played at antiseptic neutral sites potentially many thousands of miles away from participants. It has a bizarre feature: teams ranked 5-8 get home playoff games. Teams ranked 1-4 do not. Fans of teams that make the championship game are looking at three different trips in short order. This is much less of a deal when you live near some of these sites, which is another advantage handed to a conference that really does not need one.
I don't know why the guys at the top of this sport keep letting third-party bowls horn in and grab some of the money so their championship can be worse. I mean, I do: this is a mid-contract reconfiguration and they have to get buy in from the people who run the New Year's Six:
As long as the playoff is operating under the current contract, it has to honor its agreements with the New Year's Six Bowls, unless everyone involved in those contracts agrees to change them.
It is possible that there is an underlying desire to have more home games but that can't happen until 2026-27, so they're going to trot out Hancock to talk about their treasured relationship with these bowls while they prepare a knife in the back.
On the other hand, maybe not:
"I'm not sure playing in East Lansing, Michigan on Jan. 7 is a really good idea." - Bob Bowlsby said, in response to a @DanWetzel question about why using the bowl. (It would probably be a good idea for Michigan State!)
— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) June 10, 2021
That's nonsense, obviously, since the format currently allows for a northern home game one whole week before Bowlsby's horror scenario. But maybe there's still a majority in favor of the geographical slant away from the Big Ten even after the contract expires.
I'm not sure that going to East Lansing is a good idea on any date.
or, let's face it, even remotely plausible that they host a playoff game
Smart of Bowlsby to use them as the hypothetical for that reason. Had he said Happy Valley or Ann Arbor, it could have seemed like he was directly and purposely hindering those teams.
Well, they did make the playoff once already. Guess it is possible.
...and how did that work out for them?
Hey, they *could* have scored if Cook hadn't thrown an interception in the red zone right before the half.
Under this system, though, that team would have had a bye and not played a home game.
Who cares? It’s better to go to the dance with your cousin Johnny than to never have gone.
Welp, we're just gonna have to agree to disagree on that dance partner, Bob!
Practically, I love the idea of Michigan hosting any team from the South, Pac-12 or SEC on January 7. Football weather.
Or <shudder to think>, Wisconsin getting lucky and hosting a playoff game against an SEC / Pac-12 team in Madison, in Dec / Jan.... Think the Packers have a home field advantage?
Oh man. This may be the most exciting part of this whole playoff idea.
First off, why is some college football reporter worrying about playing a game in the north in January? Too soft to watch from a heated press box?
Secondly, the NFL routinely plays several outdoor games even later in January.
I was going to bring up point #2. All of the players that make the NFL are bound to have to play games in Chicago, Buffalo, NY and Green Bay at some point in time....get used to it. Also, if weather "up North" in January is that big of an issue, I'm sure they can figure out a way to play at the nearest dome.
If that has to be the way, I wouldn't mind local-ish games in Minneapolis, Indianapolis, or Detroitopolis.
It's just another weird complaint about change in FBS football that is reliant upon not looking outside of the FBS. As noted above, there are outdoor playoff games in Green Bay almost every year and people survive.
*survive
Not sure about that. Ask Matt Hasselbeck about that.
I want a CFP game with conditions like the Ice Bowl
The gentleman quoted was the Big12 commissioner. I would guess he might have a vested interest in making sure Oklahoma or one of the TX schools doesn’t play in the upper Midwest in December or January……..
Logged in to upvote.
So the top 4 seeds don’t get a home playoff game, makes sense
In fairness, the top 4 seeds get a first round bye, which is better than having to play, even at home, in round 1.
And that's not at all debatable, so let's drop the canard that teams #1-4 are somehow getting shafted!
Having the 2nd round as bowl games is silly enough without having to resort to Tucker Carlson level arguments!
I don't see how this is disingenuous. Another game is gate revenue, concession revenue, etc. Sure, the teams at the top almost certainly don't need it, but that doesn't mean they shouldn't get the opportunity. It's entirely possible that Bama never (I say this mostly sarcastically) plays a playoff game in front of its own home crowd while mid-tier teams may get to do so regularly.
I'm not out here trying to defend Bama/Clemson/Georgia/Ohio State/Oklahoma, but I completely understand how not being able to host a home playoff game is a slight. That advantage and the payoff were well-earned.
Look, this debate really warrants no further discussion - just ask Saban, Dabo or Day whether they'd prefer a home game or a bye in the 1st round.
Just ask em...
I doubt the home teams will get anything close to normal revenue from the games - the majority will go to the NCAA and a shared revenue pool for the teams / conferences just like with the bowl system now.
I am sure the home school will get an additional % to cover costs and fees but the big incentive would be publicity, fan engagement, and local business/tax revenue.
This makes it sound so much worse than it actually is. Yes, ideally the first two rounds would be home games for the highest seeds (5-8 host first round with 1-4 receiving byes, and 1-4 host the second round). But you can't really plausibly argue that the top four seeds are getting hosed by having a bye instead of a home game. Maybe from a purely financial standpoint the home game would be better, but overall you're much better off getting a bye and an extra week of rest/prep. Especially since this expansion doubles the number of games you have to win for everyone outside the top four.
TLDR, a first round home game is a nice consolation for teams 5-8, but the first round bye is the true prize of the seeding.
An extra home game, and a PLAYOFF one at that, is a stupid amount of money for any AD to turn down, especially when the alternative is a bye week and a "first round" playoff game in an antiseptic NFL stadium they will likely need to give away tickets to.
Right from a competitive standpoint, they're not getting hosed at all. They are in the quarters automatically. Teams 5-8 have to win a home game to get there.
It is possibly getting hosed from a financial perspective but they could balance that out with the payout structure. It is getting hosed from a fun fan experience perspective though.
Is anyone actually arguing that they're getting hosed? Byes and game location are completely separate decisions and the point is that there's no reason to have the second round at neutral sites. If you really want to include the bowls, make the rule that playoff games are at the pre-selected location of the higher seed (this location could be their home stadium), think Rose Bowl: Official Playoff Home of the Big Ten or Alamo Bowl: Post-season Home of the Texas Longhorns. Does it suck more than home sites? Yup, but it at least shifts the power in these relationships towards the schools and not the bowls and if teams want to screw over their fans for a little extra money, at least the fans know who to blame.
Yeah, it's their fans that are getting hosed (and, I guess, people that like to watch games on TV that take place at interesting stadiums with unique traditions), not the teams themselves.
The only downside is that as a fan it would be awesome to host a home playoff game for one of your greatest teams. Like if Michigan finished #3, I'd be happy with the bye but bummed we don't get a home playoff game
Sure, that awesome home game might even be against App St!
From a winning games perspective, you are absolutely right. Get a "Win" via bye is better than getting a potential loss or a win but with injuries via playing a game at Home.
From a excitement and fun perspective it would be great to crush a team you don't regularly play (that is likely significantly weaker than you) in front of your home fans during a playoff atmosphere.
I can see both sides of the argument. If it were UM and I had a chance to see a playoff game at the Big House or scoot into the second round where I have to watch on TV as we (probably) struggle against a much tougher opponent than we'd have faced in the first round... I think I want the home game. Also, winning a playoff game VS losing a game after siting on a bye probably plays better with recruits(?).
Sharks ahoy!
Good lord, can you imagine playing Florida or Florida State (or any SEC team for that matter) AT Michigan in November/December? GLORIOUS.
More here to like than not
Plus:
-ND finally stops getting favored status unless they join a league
-G5 inclusion/end to fans of G5 whining about their exclusion.
-Right number of teams (you probably need 12 to get the G5 inclusion) plus benefit, in form of a bye, for teams that have exceptional years
-CFB reclaims New Years Day with important games
Minus:
-Continued use of neutral site "bowl" games means excessive travel for fans, means most iconic venues in the sport play little part in the sport's championship. (The "mid-contract" explanation does make sense, but hard to see commissioners abandoning their buddies on the bowl committees then just to benefit the fans).
Ambiguous but baked in feature:
-"Amateur" players now generating even more revenue that they see only a fraction of.
-Non playoff bowl games even less important, but that was already true.
I agree with all of this except your last point. The Music City Bowl was always going to a lightly-watched exhibition, mostly for the fans of the two teams playing (who weren't winning a championship this year anyway) and for those of us who just want more football on December 21st.
As for the revenue part, if the NIL stuff starts happening, more opportunities to play in highly-watched games could be big for guys to get some licensing. I know it's a different sport, but think about what Spike Albrecht would have gotten for deals after his crazy first half in the NCAA final. You have a lesser-known player who has a huge game in the CFB playoff and now he might get some money out of it.
Good points, though I wonder if this situation makes it even harder to sustain those lower tier bowls since they may receive even less viewership with casual neutrals choosing to watch the playoff bowls. No idea how many of them survive today, to be sure, so will have to be seen.
Don't think they'd be any great loss at this point, other than the benefits to younger players on the teams.
No it won't compete, because just like it has been, the lower bowls will be in the weeks leading up to the playoff, meaning there won't be any other football to compete with. Those never had crazy high viewership anyway, so I doubt that will dip here.
Let’s toss Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska from the Big Ten and add Notre Dame. Athletic and Academic and geographic fits all around and great rivalry games for years to come.
Let's be real here...ND does not want in the B1G.
Soft schedule in the ACC
ACC?! With Clemson?
ND is more likely to join the AAC!
And they still wouldn't be guaranteed a conference title there!
Playing in the ACC is like playing in the Big West.
Fuck Notre Dame.
So if you're the 7th best conference champion, you're eliminated from contention? Or is that an error in one of your bullet points? I get that most years there won't be more than one G5 school worthy, but if you have two 1-loss (or fewer) G5 teams, both who won their league, shouldn't they have a shot?
I think it almost has to be an error; in effect, it should read:
- The 6 highest-ranked conference champions get automatic bids.
- The 6 highest-ranked remaining teams get at-large bids.
There's no logical reason that a second G5 champion falling within the six highest ranked teams after the six highest ranked champions should be left out. Taking it to the extremes, consider a final ranking where conference champion UCF is 8, conference champion Boise St. is 10, and conference runner-up Cincinnati is 12. Under the original text, 12th ranked runner up Cincinnati would get in over 10th ranked conference champion Boise; that doesn't make any sense. Or consider a season where the Pac 12's two or three loss champion ranks lower than two undefeated G5 champions, but is still in the top 12. That team gets skipped for a 13th ranked non-champion? I doubt it.
Like I said, it has to be sloppy wording
This makes sense. Agree that it would have to be "remaining" teams vs. "non-champions" for the 6 at-large bids.
2018 is an good case study. Based on final CFP rankings:
- top 4 conference champs are 1 Alabama, 2 Clemson, 4, Oklahoma, and 6 ohio state and would get first round byes.
- The next 2 conference champs with auto-bids are 8 UCF and 9 Washington.
- The remaining 6 highest-ranked teams are 3 notre dame, 5, Georgia, 7 Michigan, 10 Florida, 11 LSU, and 12 PSU.
The initial round matchups would be:
- 12 PSU @ 3 notre dame
- 11 LSU @ 5 Georgia (rematch)
- 10 Florida @ 7 Michigan
- 9 Washington @ 8 UCF
If they did it just straight up based on the rankings, first round would have been:
- 12 PSU @ 5 Georgia
- 11 LSU @ 6 ohio state
- 10 Florida @ 7 Michigan
- 9 Washington @ 8 UCF
What wasn't clear to me is how the quarters are matched up. Is it a set bracket at that point, so the winner of 5-12 plays #1 regardless of the outcome? Or does the lowest remaining seed play the highest seed? E.g., if it's all chalk except for LSU upsetting osu, does LSU then play Alabama b/c it's the most favorable seeded matchup?
Great question about reseeding or not. Reseeding makes some sense, especially in smaller tournaments, but it seems rare (I think even the NHL got rid of it), so they probably won't reseed.
Great question about reseeding or not. Reseeding makes some sense, especially in smaller tournaments, but it seems rare (I think even the NHL got rid of it), so they probably won't reseed.
i hate to quote myself, but as i tweeted in response to wetzel's:
"yes, it *would* be a good idea for michigan state, dumbass. that’s the entire fucking point. northern schools should get home field once in a while."
to which i would add: speaking of "coddled," fuck the SEC.
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