Fee Fi Foe Film: Indiana Offense 2020
Resources: My charting, IU game notes, IU roster, CFBstats, Last year
Last year the Hoosiers lost Michael Penix early and got used to the light touch of Peyton Ramsey. This year you can tell. Penix is throwing 100 mph darts, and a couple of times his receivers flat-out dropped them because they couldn't believe a ball could travel so fast. Especially from that arm angle. Once they adjusted, hooooo boy there were some tight windows. Penix is a thrill. Not just for sophomoric beat writers either.
The film: I'm not doing more Rutgers nope nope nope plus IU-Penn State was fuuuuuuun.
Personnel:
PDF version, full-size version (or click on the image)
Reminder that the solid colors mean the guy's the solid #1 starter, and bolded names are veterans. Most of these guys are the same as last year. You remember Mike Hart but Big RB #8 Stevie Scott III, and speedy little slot #1 Whop Philyor, by reputation if not sight, because he's had a habit of being unavailable when they play Michigan. Scott's backup RB #6 Sampson James is the only 4-star playing, and isn't too different from Scott.
"The wide receivers fortunately did not look like the world-beaters IU always seems to turn up," would be my famous last words if I was dumb enough to say such a thing. Without taking anything away from secret five-star factory Michigan State, Indiana's WR room was at least considered an upgrade on East Lansing's, and looked like it against common opponent Rutgers. PSU got handsy, especially against Whop, but even with the flurry of "refs-2"s that IU suffered in my charting, longtime up-and-comer WR #3 Ty Fryfogle was responsible for as much bad as good in the passing game, and is not a blocker. He was a very effective receiver last year, matching Ronnie Bell's YPT (10.6) and Fryfogle's 72% catch rate bettered Ronnie's by 11 points, albeit on a much lower target rate. The other three guys, tall WR #13 Miles Marshall, fast-ish WR #2 Jacolby Hewitt, and playmaking freshman #18 Javon Swinton are all at least 6'2" and rotated evenly. None were getting much separation from PSU's corners, neither of whom gave up 200 yards to an MSU freshman recently.
[After THE JUMP: the players and analysis.]
-----------------------------------------
They also go through a trio of tight ends. The receiving option is veteran TE #86 Peyton Hendershot (+2/-1 run blocking), who at 250 is plausible as a blocker but flexes out as a receiver as often as not. I actually preferred the junior TE #89 Matt Bjorson (+4.5/-1, –1 pass pro) who kept getting under guys trying to blow up his kickouts. True freshman TE #88 AJ Barner (+1.5/-4) is still not quite wintered.
Since Penix is a left-handed passer, the right tackle is the blindside. That is contextually significant in grading RT #76 Matt Bedford, a clearly talented true sophomore who was alright (+2.5/-3) as a run blocker but –5 in pass pro. Bedford was good enough as a true freshman last year that longtime starter Coy Cronk left for Iowa, but Bedford struggled in protection against PSU, if not to the degree of his mirror. The sad unfortunate tasked with containing All-American candidate Shaka Toney went to LT Caleb Jones (+4/-4, –11 pass pro). Jones is a huge ("362"), boxy slab of beef who's got some agility that appears in the run game, but not enough to keep up with Toney, who had Jones's number all game.
IU moved their one interior returning starter to center. C #57 Harry Crider (+6/-5.5, –0 pass pro) can play, but he wasn't quite comfortable making line calls against PSU's weird-ass blitzes, which often overloaded the (offense's) right side as help went to dealing with Toney. RG #51 Mackenzie Nworah (+1.5/-1, –3 prot) and the LG rotation of #56 Mike Katic (+1.5/-2, –2 prot) and #72 Dylan Powell (+0/-3, –1 prot) all got pushed around by PSU's DTs. Katic is a redshirt freshman who feels a year away from being a solid Big Ten player; Powell is a Stanford grad transfer who missed last season with an injury. That Nworah, who's also been constantly battling injuries over his career, seems to have his position locked down over the two unseen options was a floor scenario for IU fans going into the season.
--------------------------------
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Despite the new coordinator (yes THAT Nick Sheridan), they're still a team that spreads three or four wide from 11 personnel, with two tight ends on the field for a little more than a quarter of their standard down snaps. On passing downs it's 50/50 whether the tight end will be split out as a slot receiver, and they'll put Scott out wide for an empty look on the regular.
Formation | Personnel | Playcall | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Down Type | Gun | Pistol | Ace | Goal | Avg WRs | Pass | PA | RPO | Run | ||
Standard (37) | 51% | 33% | 16% | - | 2.72 | 35% | 5% | 24% | 35% | ||
Passing (29) | 89% | 11% | - | - | 3.00 | 86% | - | 7% | 3% | ||
Total (66) | 61 | 19 | 7 | - | 2.85 | 38 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
The difference this year is it's become highly predictable. They run or run an RPO that's just a backside bubble screen on over half of their 1st downs. They also run the same runs to the same side—I charted nine Belly runs, and Penn State was running specific blitzes by the end to defeat those. As Brian mentioned on WTKA this morning, you can tell Sheridan's a guy who played for Lloyd Carr.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? The IU staple of Outside Zone often got one of these guys planted in the backfield, at which point Scott would pivot off a tackle and see what he could get. They ran a lot of Belly at Toney, a Winovich type, off the back of Jones. They also threw a lot of fades and stop routes. Mesh came back late, though against PSU's two-high zone that mostly turned into unproductive swing passes to Scott.
Hurry it up or grind it out? IU will mostly grind it out but they're modern enough to be lined up at 29 seconds, look to the sideline, then adjust. I never saw them snap on a tempo in this game.
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): Penix is Joe Milton, a "pro-style" passer who doesn't run often but absolutely can, and has the hugeness to add a yard or three after contact. This was one of just two clips I could get of him on his feet, both on two-point after attempts.
I take it you've seen the other:
That's a 7/10, which is dangerous but not well-used. He did miss a couple of keep opportunities on those belly runs, but PSU mostly schemed to let the ball go to Scott.
HenneChart: Note the ratio of dead-on to otherwise. Our DSR metric doesn't account for that.
Michael Penix Jr. | Good | Neutral | Bad | DSR | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opponent | DO | CA | SCR | PR | MA | BA | TA | IN | BR | ||||
Penn State | 8 | 13(1) | 1 | 6 | 1 | - | 3 | 5 | 2 | 69% |
This is a highly talented dude, and this was considered a bad game for him. He could have had a much bigger output but for drops.
When Indiana finally mounted their late comeback after giving up the lead, and Penn State was just mauling their pass-blocking, it was Penix playing on another level that accounted for the wild finish.
Part of that is his wind-up, which looks weird, but is actually getting the ball out pretty quickly. If there's any criticism it's that Penix has a Joe Miltonesque tendency to rip a heater when the point is just to get it to 1st base and jogg off the field.
Frames Janklin Factor: Tom Allen is the kind of man who celebrates loudest when random events go his way. He also gave Penn State an extra possession in this one by calling a doomed run with seconds left in the 1st half, which led to a fumble and a free field goal attempt.
Dangerman: We've already discussed Penix, who is going to do at least one WTF thing against Michigan.
The receiver to be most aware of is again the slot guy, though if you were going to add the most superfluous nickname ever to Mister Elias De'Angelo "Whop" Philyor it would be something like "ol' sweet routes". That's not to say he lacks speed. He's a legit 4.5 at least. This is against PSU's nickel safety LaMont Wade:
I also have to recognize RB Stevie Scott III, who won't be in contention for all-conference honors because the conference is so loaded at his position, but plays on the level of a typical 2nd team All-Big Ten RB. Scott is coached by Mike Hart so people make those comparisons, with the rider that he's Mike Hart but Ron Dayne-sized.
Scott is only averaging 3.37 YPC this year but that needs to be in context of an offense that's usually providing him 2.37 yards before he has to burrow through a wall of linebackers to get one more. He's also a plausible receiver; Scott will line up wide ten times a game, but his route is usually that stand-at-the-LOS thing that everyone copied from Baylor. He had 7 YPT last year on 30 targets.
You can also tell Mike Hart has been coaching him; there were several crushing backfield blocks on a day PSU was determined to throw the farm at Penix.
OVERVIEW:
I am worried for the obvious reason, but also because there is a lot more potential in Indiana's offense that they haven't yet accessed. Sheridan hasn't gotten the feel yet for when to call things, and when he doesn't have a plan he falls into patterns that Don Brown should pick up on. Also the receivers have been living in a Peyton Ramsey world for years, and an adjustment from the knuckler to the 102 mph fastball guy isn't an overnight process:
The offense has two less fixable areas weakness, neither of which Michigan is in great shape to exploit. The first is the strength of their interior offensive line. They graduated the mauling RG you remember for injuring Winovich right before the 2018 Game, as well as a center who was a perennial Rimington Watch Lister. IU has been trying to work in more outside zone because their interior guys are bull-rushable, but they're not particularly agile either. When they play Ohio State the Hoosiers are doomed; Michigan's DTs however haven't shown the ability to dominate weak offensive linemen, and the Wolverines haven't surprised anyone with their 3-3-5 attacks since Labor Day weekend of 2017. Indiana's tackles are good enough in the run game to be a problem if Michigan keeps trying to use Kwity and Aidan inside. If Kemp et al. can't hold up to doubles here it's time for cyans.
The second is pass protection, because the tackles aren't great at it, especially Jones, who's just not built to handle a Winovich-like bender. These were back-to-back plays:
The caveat for Michigan is what you saw against Michigan State: if you're throwing a first-read fly route against single coverage you don't have to stand in the pocket long and you can use the time you do have to step into a confident throw. Yes, that is part of the IU offense, and it terrifies me that Penn State had to get away with some stuff they will call 100% of the time on Michigan to not get cut up by it.
No matter how good Kwity and Aidan are at getting into the backfield, if IU can copy MSU's ability to turn that 30% play into a 90% play there's nothing Michigan can do but put up a Help Wanted sign. I imagine Michigan will have some kind of answer besides asking Gray and Perry or whomever to stick with Fryfogle and Marshall and the rest of the 6-foot-2 brigade on an island, but that answer will open up other things. My guess is those other things will be quick underneath passes to punish Brown's propensity to solve his problems with aggression.
Even if you do get them behind the 8-ball, Penix is a dude who can get them out of it.
If this is just a typical wild nonsensical Michigan-Indiana game that Michigan wins on some stupid shit I'll take it.
Moment of Zen:
Since I don't do Dear Diary anymore but I am clipping games maybe I'll add it to this column. I needed some excuse to include this:
November 5th, 2020 at 1:02 PM ^
Well that was encouraging....It's a good thing I've already planned to put the Christmas lights on the house this Saturday. I'll already have a backup plan in the event this game turns to trash.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^
DVR
Check score after kids are in bed
If you like the results sit down and enjoy a good hour watch
If you don't like the results continue enjoying your Saturday
Prosper
November 5th, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
Kids are grown ups with their own kids but yeah. Started that in 2018 after the Ohio beat down in Columbus. The 62-39 debacle. Should have started years sooner. Can now enjoy my Saturdays more and a win enjoy my Sunday mornings. Just hope it doesn’t get to the point I even stop using VCR.
November 5th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
That's the primary plan as far as I'm concerned. Michigan football is dead to me until Harbaugh is fired. I defended him until this week. I'm done. No excuse for this past week shit show. That was inexcusable.
No DTs on the roster. No CBs. A defensive coordinator that won't change anything despite deficiencies of the team and an offensive"brain trust" that couldn't figure out running up the middle wasn't working. OL that couldn't block for a single play they ran. LBs that couldn't follow the play or fill holes. Already mentioned the DT and CB situation. QB that can't throw the ball down field.
Milton, Corum and, Dax Hill were there only three that showed up last week. Not that Milton did a good job, he's just too limited.
Fire them all.
Fire the entire football staff, let all the players transfer, bring in new everything. Scrub everyone in the building who's been there and start with new everyone so there's no interference from people who think their opinion is important. This shit show is ridiculous.
November 5th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^
Yeah. Once the ass hats responsible for this shit show are gone.
November 5th, 2020 at 8:02 PM ^
Winner gets to coach Michigan? Im sure it was covered in the many coaching change threads, but Allen would be a good hire and would finally bring Mike Hart home.Give Gattis a raise to stay with the savings and fire everyone else.
If Harbaugh somehow pulls it off, maybe it leads to a turn around and buys him an extra year. I’d be happy with either.
November 6th, 2020 at 11:09 AM ^
Way too soon for Christmas lights. At least get past Thanksgiving.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
So I take it we’re not getting UFR this week
November 5th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
We just need to chant louder.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:15 PM ^
This game reminds me of last year's Iowa game--just find some way to win the game. Doesn't have to be impressive, doesn't have to be a 2-3 score win to make us feel good.
Win. The. Game.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
2-3 scores? I’ll feel good with a 1 point win. In OT.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:45 PM ^
Exactly. Just win the damn game; I don't give a rat's ass about style points or margin of victory. Hell, give me MOOIU.
November 5th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
Do not care. Not watching another Harbaugh dumpster fire this year. Season tickets likely to be either halved or eliminated altogether.
November 5th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
Just sell them to me! I'll definitely take them
November 5th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
If I'm IU, I find #4 and attack him every single chance I get.
November 5th, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
I have absolutely zero confidence that Don Brown will be able to get the defense ready for this game. I see it being a close game in the 1st quarter until Indiana figures out the defensive game plan while Don Brown stands on the sidelines with his stupid bugged out eyes behind that stupid shield he wears waiving his arms like that is supposed to help anything.
While listening to 97.1 yesterday, Marcus Ray called the Mike and Rico show and admitted that no former players have any confidence left in Harbaugh and his gang of clowns. He endorsed Tyrone Wheatley as being a great option to hire after the Harbaugh experiment comes to a disappointing end hopefully sooner rather than later and I could not agree more! We all know the reason he left in 2017 is because of Harbaugh.
November 5th, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
Marcus Ray has always been his own biggest fan and still holds a grudge to this day against Harbaugh. While I don't have a lot of belief in Harbaugh I couldnt give a rat's ass what Marcus Ray has to say
November 5th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
If Marcus Ray things UM should hire Wheatley then they should absolutely not do that because Ray has some of the worst ideas I've ever heard.
November 5th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
If a head coaching candidate is a Michigan alum or coached at Michigan in the past 20 years, I don't want them.
Fuck Michigan men. A bunch of washed up losers who think we are elite because we say we are and that we have cool helmets. Move into the 21st century assholes.
November 5th, 2020 at 3:29 PM ^
Agree. For the love of god, I hope Warde reaches out to Eric Bieniemy. He’s easily my favorite, and a ton of nfl teams are gonna go after him this post season
November 5th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^
My only concern about Bieniemy: he'll bring back Kordell Stewart as QB coach and Michael Westbrook as WR coach and those two will spend all practice slinging 65 yard Hail Mary's to each other.
November 5th, 2020 at 5:24 PM ^
WOW...I had never even considered that!!! For some reason, I thought Rashan Salaam (sp?) was the running back on their team during that game, but you're absolutely right!
November 5th, 2020 at 11:58 PM ^
He was, but I upvoted that post all the same.
November 5th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Wheatley may or may not be a good HC, need a larger sample size. That said, his name would absolutely not be, in any way shape or form, associated with being the HC at Michigan at this point if he wasn't a former player, and THAT my friends, is the entire problem with Michigan.
November 5th, 2020 at 4:39 PM ^
Marcus Ray’s opinion on Michigan football is one of the few opinions that mean less to me than Jim Harbaugh’s opinion on Michigan football.
November 5th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^
As if Marcus Ray was ever a Harbaugh supporter. He belongs on 97.1 with those 2.
November 5th, 2020 at 8:05 PM ^
Lol. Marcus Ray is a fucking idiot.
Wheatley has almost no HC experience. That is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas.
November 5th, 2020 at 2:58 PM ^
I'll be the optimist and say I think Michigan figures this out. MSU got a ton of good things go there way last weekend and still barely beat UM. The corners aren't great but I watched the MSU game again and there were a couple of plays that were hairs away from being PBUs or picks. Again, you need to make those plays and MSU did but IU hasn't looked all that good against PSU or Rutgers offensively (I'm actually more worried about their defense) and Brown can game plan for them to a degree he maybe can't against PSU or OSU.
It's going to be scary because Penix is a good QB, but he's inconsistent and is just as likely to explode at IU as at UM.
November 6th, 2020 at 4:04 AM ^
Much respect to you for watching last week’s game again. Not sure I could force myself to do that. It gives your opinion on the matter a lot of weight.
November 5th, 2020 at 3:40 PM ^
Indiana keeps their QB in while inside the 5 and runs with them? Idiots.
November 5th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^
Wait, the season is still going?
November 5th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
"to punish Brown's propensity to solve his problems with aggression"
I think you mean cause his problems with aggression.
November 5th, 2020 at 4:32 PM ^
Someone pointed this out on here on Saturday night. On third goal at the 15 with the score 20-17 Don Brown called an all out blitz. Sparty knew it because that's what Don Brown always does and calls a screen and scores a TD to ice the game. If M just plays their base defense they hold Sparty to a FG and has a chance with over 5 minutes to go only down 23-17. Think back to Wisconsin in 2016, Michigan is up 14-7 with 2:23 to go. Wisky has 4 and 10 at their own 5. Don Brown leaves Lewis on an island and he comes up with the huge play. If it is thrown another foot it is a game tying TD.
November 5th, 2020 at 4:30 PM ^
Guess we are moving on like it's post-OSU week
November 5th, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
Has their been an update about Barrett being out, or is this just speculation?
November 5th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^
I think we lose this one 21-42.
But maybe they recover and win this game and several more down the stretch. What value does that have anymore? Year 6 and lose to both rivals, have players sit for a possible bowl game, lose possible bowl. Rinse and repeat the formula for 2021. This is the Michigan difference.
November 5th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Welp. Not good, Bob.
If someone had told me in September that Michigan football would come apart before the Lions this season, I'd have offered to eat a lemon. But it looks like that might just happen.
Or we could win by 10-14, who knows.....let's hope that's what happens, because it sucks to have no confidence in this team - especially the defense.
November 5th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
IU is ALWAYS a wild card; who knows what they'll do or how they'll play. They got lucky against PSU, but I know I never look forward to playing them. I think you match up well and should win by 14+.
November 5th, 2020 at 9:40 PM ^
I’m taking a road trip to play golf on Saturday, will be gone from 9am until 9pm. Not sure I’ll even record the game
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if IU won
November 6th, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
Should be an entertaining game for non-UM fans. For those still emotionally invested, its going to be a stressful few hours. Michigan football back in full swing!
November 6th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
where is Mazi Smith? Or is he another lost top talent from this staff...?
Comments