WTKA Roundtable 10/24/2019: Stop Trying to Cheer Me Up
Things discussed:
- The weird road game when there's lots of mistakes, and this is still that game despite this being the best game they played all year
- Harbaugh killed three drives in Penn State territory or near enough by not going for it on 4th and short
- The mugging: can't argue the refs were the difference in this game.
- Shea had a good day. Peoples-Jones's drop: two guys open crossing each other in the middle of the field, Patterson doesn't see it, then he rolls out and finds DPJ and the safety rakes it out—that's on Shea. Brian thinks Shea's performance was okay, not great.
- Yippee they ran bubble screens and it worked because they've been ignoring it.
- Regular screens: why hasn't one worked all year? It wasn't a pick if Charbonnet doesn't trip but it wasn't going to work.
- Sloppy play—they still can't handle tempo (which is bad this week).
- Sam: RPO illegal man downfield: correct call on Ruiz but PSU has a guy 8 yards downfield who breaks up Hawkins's interception attempt wasn't one. The push-off is 7 points or 4 if PSU gets back in range. The Collins thing! The mugging on 4th down! Need to have officials grading so it's left to people like Craig Ross to grade them.
- Notre Dame: Brian says go ask Seth. Ed says they've got those DEs. Ian Book's a good QB. They've been trying to find a running game.
- Michigan as they were in the 2nd half last week can beat them, but this is a solid opponent.
- Back to Shea: if he has this game in context of a decent season we're down on his PSU game.
- Brian: Stop trying to cheer me up and make me optimistic about stuff. It's not going to happen. It's not. It's a one-game season and we're going to get hammered in that game.
- Caller: on the ledge, because it's the same old problems every season. Brian: we were hoping Harbaugh would come in and be a top five coach, and we're not there—we're on James Franklin level.
- Isaiah Todd: The way Michigan stays as good as they were under Beilein is they recruit better.
[Player after THE JUMP]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream on Podbean.
Segment two is here. Section three is here.
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It's like the Clay Davis: I'll take any m'f'er's yards if they're giving them to me.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:21 AM ^
Brian: Stop trying to cheer me up and make me optimistic about stuff. It's not going to happen. It's not. It's a one-game season and we're going to get hammered in that game.
Holy smokes. The BPONE, emo stuff is getting tiresome and is really polluting the culture of the board.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:41 AM ^
Agreed..it's like a pouty teenager at this point. Pathetic.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:55 AM ^
I think Seth needs to take over as full-time football writer. I don't even bother with Brian's stuff anymore. Not because I don't think he has a pretty good analytical mind when it comes to football, but because his whole demeanor has just been grating and frankly a little childish (not doing UFRs for games that we've lost, for example).
Contrast the way he's covered Harbaugh's teams with the way he covered Rich Rod's teams and the difference in tone is STARK. For whatever reason, he was much more positive about RR's tenure, even until the end of it than he is about Harbaugh's tenure, even though Harbaugh has objectively been 1000x better as a coach for the program. I don't get it.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:08 AM ^
Ok, but put yourself in Brian's shoes for a minute. You've been doing this for over 10 years now. In those 10 years, something you love very much has brought you mostly anguish. Then, you bring in a guy that is guaranteed to fix your broken relationship. However, the fixer unexpectedly turns on you and starts to cause additional anguish and pain. Also, there's change missing off your dresser and your daughter's knocked up. Would you be able to stay positive??? WELL WOULD YOU????? ANSWER ME GOD DAMN IT??????????? AAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG.............I CAN'T TAKE IT ANY MORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 25th, 2019 at 9:16 AM ^
This is a weird, somewhat personal analogy going on.
Also, it's fucking college sports. When you're basically double the age of the players you're watching, figure out a way to emotionally distance yourself from it. Lots of people who write about way more important things find a way to do so.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
i miss the optimistic and enthusiastic brian. he does have two kids also while still playing football manager... ...that takes a toll.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:47 AM ^
The football manager stuff can sap your will to live.
If anything, kids tend to mellow you out. They certainly have for me.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
i was thinking more of lack of sleep than any emotional fluctuations.
regarding football manager, i bet brian is one of those purist who NEVER saves and reloads after a non favorable result.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
The day Wisconsin ran on us over, and over, and over again under RR to sock away another defeat for us, I took my kids to the park.
I took my kids to the park alot back then. And I'm glad I did. F*ck BPONE when you have too little humans who want nothing but to spend their waking hours with you.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:28 AM ^
"figure out a way to emotionally distance yourself from it". Sure, I get that and I can, because I only have to spend the few hours it takes to watch the game. I'm just saying that it would be a hell of a lot harder to do that when you're in Brian's position of living and breathing it every day.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
Somehow thousands of other bloggers manage to do it without similar effects, many for worse teams than Michigan.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
The only difference between me and Brian is that I don't write about football on a blog. I, too, have had the experience of being a Michigan fan the past 10 years. I, too, care about how the team does and have been disappointed over the years. And you know what? I still don't feel the need to be depressed and whiny about where Michigan is right now. Can things be better? Sure, they always can.
Are things really that bad right now? No, not really. Michigan has been winning a lot of games, and been this close to winning the conference and getting a probable playoff berth. OSU has just been better, and that sucks, but come on. Michigan put themselves a decade behind where OSU was by hiring Rich Rod and Hoke, and JH has been playing catch-up the entire time. It just is what it is.
If Brian is unable to look at the program objectively without it severely affecting his mood and affecting his job performance ("can't write today because muh ennui and BPONE, you guys!") then maybe he should consider not doing it anymore. Just a thought.
October 25th, 2019 at 1:24 PM ^
I think we can beat Ohio State.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^
"Turns on you" is a strange characterization, but a lot of people in this community (Brian foremost) treat M losing as some sort of personal betrayal. They are the ones who seem to most want "accountability" - as if that has anything to do with the success of the program moving forward, rather than some particular personal philosophy on cosmic justice.
I do like Brian's occasional aside about the emotional state of (a portion of) the fanbase, but it so often veers into full-on "whatever" sulking. As if the program is some villainous side character in his private psychodrama.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Yeah, as stated before by others, no one hates losing more than the players and coaches. Your negative feedback for losing to them, the accountability, is already there.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
He's a spread zealot; and RR had the purist form here.
I remember one post in particular when we were just bumping along I think to a 7-5 season when he was vociferously defending the offense.
It is what it is. I love MgoBlog as a meta. I just start avoiding all the BPONE stuff. It just gets harder over time.
We have double digit wins. We have no scandals. We are competitive with MSU. We have the offensive scheme everyone wanted. We have kids who graduate.
That's a shining hill of positivity compared to the vast majority of college football.
October 25th, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
And we're the only program in the country which goes on overseas trips annually, which may not matter to a lot of fans, but I think it's a really cool thing. They are college students after all.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:33 AM ^
"It's a one-game season."
This is dumb, and antithetical to the whole notion of playing games, having fun, etc., what people did with college sports before Emo Brian began to swirl the drain. Thank god the kids don't see it that way. Enjoy your misery, but own your own ridiculous karma.
Why not just shut down the site, re-open for OSU, and commit seppuku in the aftermath?
Good to know that you're miserable now and going to be miserable later!
Let's face it, most of the air has gone out of this thing.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
I would argue three factors have taken much of the joy from college football and I say this as an emotionally invested M fan, donor and season ticket holder
a. Playoff Format: With current format anything outside top 4 is failure. Realistically should be 8 or even 16 teams if you eliminated conference championship games and just played it out on the field. Would be big ratings too.
b. B1G Divisions: These are bs in terms of historical rivalries (Little Brown Jug, hello) but also make for a weird uneven B1G. The whole Conference Championship that bases out of this weird format also problematic.
c. Rampant Cheating: If your team is a willing participant (SEC or, say t(tm)OSU then you’re cool with the system today. While there has always been rampant cheating (SEC comes to mind) the scale is problematic and the imbalance vs what seem ethical programs is frustrating (see Stanford) and they like M seem to have a cap on outcomes accordingly.
You probably cannot scheme, facility or coach past c above. After years of railing about and being beaten by these factors I think it’s kinda broken part of Brian. If you are an older fan elements here make you at least a little sad about a lost past.
tl/dr: Expand the playoff and let’s roll
October 25th, 2019 at 9:26 AM ^
A. I would take even further - only a very few fanbases will be satisfied with a season these days. 3/4 playoff teams finish with a loss. 50% of bowl teams finish with a loss and maybe 10% of bowls are worth getting excited about winning outside of the playoffs, so you have like 5 happy fanbases at the end of the year.
B. Is whatever, conference championship games are money and therefore not going anywhere. You could realign the conferences but CFB rosters and coaching staffs turn over so often that realigning probably won't change much.
C. I would just rephrase this as "top heavy recruiting" and leave it at that. I agree with your sentiment but there are significant barriers in place - 85 scholarships per team, limited practice time, only 11 players allowed on the field (legally) for any given play. These will keep some level of competitive balance. Clemson/Bama/OSU may have 60 players way better than your top 60 players so they can withstand injuries, suspensions, etc. throughout a season but it's usually the top 25-30 that are most important in a single game.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:21 AM ^
I would agree with much of this. As I've said before it seemed in the 90's when we had far fewer double digit win seasons, with a weaker B1G, the angst was way lower. Games were taken much more one game at a time. I remember being amused with my Dad as every year no matter what our record was at the moment he'd figure out a way we could win the B1G, no matter how far fetched. It made for fun morning conversations over coffee before I went to school; and I do cherish those memories.
I think the things you stated are part of it; as well as sports radio, online crap from fans, and the echo chamber of gloom on the internet. Some people just like to vent and be unhappy online.
As to the coaching staff/players making mistakes... I've only coached low levels, basically elementary, so take this with a bag of salt. But one of the things I've seen over the years is different kids and different teams have different abilities to develop over time. Lots of things affect this (Did Johnny's parents split up this year? Is he worried about his math test this week?). One thing that seemed constant was that teams would develop holistically over time and sometimes things looked like a giant shit show early on would slowly start to click. Sometimes it didn't happen fast enough and you had a bad season. Sometimes it would happen quickly and things got fun fast. Sometimes it was half and half. It was always two steps forward, one step back, with a crap ton of repetition and trying to figure out different ways to teach the same things. Some things they never got (if someone can teach me how to make 6th grade lineman not stand up frequently when the ball is snapped I'll be forever grateful).
The temptation is to say 'Why hasn't coach fixed 'X!!!!' from week to week; and being upset/disappointed when improvement doesn't happen. It may also be really tempting to say 'OMG we are blocking better but our tempo is still bad' and assume our coaches are idiots. It may be that they've focused on one thing at the expense of the others because they only have so much time.
It's better to look at all improvement holistically over time. And the rate of improvement will depend on the kids involved, their chemistry with the coaches, and the complexity of the things you are working on.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:43 AM ^
I would not at all be surprised if WTKA dropped this segment next year. Jesus, Brian, lighten up.
October 25th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^
Said the same thing in the weather thread yesterday...didnt want to create a new thread as I knew this was coming.
If I were Sam, I would shut it down today..just replace it was the captain and the coach, maybe leave craig and ed on. Its insufferable.
October 26th, 2019 at 12:41 AM ^
Damn.
I am gone for one week and we all getting canned?
I hope not, I would miss it, but at least I would earn a few more bucks.
October 25th, 2019 at 8:45 AM ^
Disappointing
October 25th, 2019 at 9:11 AM ^
It would be neat to see a Brian UFR of a Bo game and see where, in his day, he would rank nationally among coaches. Same with Moeller. Be neat; almost like the 'The Teams' series they are doing.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:27 AM ^
"It's 3rd and 4 and we run the same ISO off tackle they ran the last 3 plays, FFS. Give up and punt, RPS -2."
October 25th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
It's probably good that this site only slightly overlapped the Carr era. I'm not sure Brian is alive if it didn't.
October 25th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
I mean, under Carr we managed to win 80% of our games when we had a serious contender for the greatest quarterback of all time starting for us! Starting the year after we won the national championship, at that...
October 25th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
Ahh but even back then I remember people complaining about under utilizing our talent. *sigh*
'We should win national titles more often!'
October 25th, 2019 at 11:55 AM ^
Tom Brady was in fact not as good a college QB as people claim, and that's coming from someone who thought he should start over Henson.
Carr also won about 75% of his games; Michigan under Harbaugh is around 73%. So...not a huge difference. And the reason Michigan lost those games after 1997 was because they couldn't handle mobile QBs to save their lives yet again.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
This is a good idea. While I'm not going to sit and watch a whole game from 50 years ago, I would be fascinated to read a UFR.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:14 AM ^
I think there's a way to make a passion into your job, but this site's immense downer energy highlights how dangerous it can be. Like, if you're this unhappy watching Michigan football, just stop. Focus on the upcoming basketball season then.
Like, I expect Sam to be needlessly homerific at times, but like when Ed Fang is telling you you're being a downer then you've got a problem. Like, DPJ dropped a ball that was in his hands. Collins could have brought in a ball. Black has been really down this year. If you want me to talk about NFL WRs, those guys catch those balls. Devin Funchess and Jeremy Gallon caught a ton of balls with Devin Gardner running for his life.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
the day when i agreed with Ed more than Brian...
but to be fair this is a blog and not a strictly news platform. i guess being subjective and emotional is part of being 'just' a blog. and if he did stop watching football it's not like anybody else from mgoblog staff that is vocal is very optimistic of this program at the moment...
October 25th, 2019 at 9:51 AM ^
I agree it's an opinion-ish site. But like, even the UFR (which is seemingly more objective analysis than usual) had a lot of "yeah the guy was covered and another dropped it, but Patterson also should have thrown a different pass, so -1" which feels uneven.
I actually think Seth and Dave have been somewhat more optimistic.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Sometimes I wonder if all the analysis is like analyzing workflow at the sausage factory. If you UFR'd Oklahoma, Notre Dame, PSU, and maybe even OSU or Clemson over time you'd start to see errors that they got lucky on, or that their athletes were able to bail them out of.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:59 AM ^
"Good morning, Pooh Bear," said Eeyore gloomily. "If it is a good morning," he said. "Which I doubt," said he.
1) I'm not looking for:
But a little less
would be nice.
2) Brian is the boss, he sets the culture for the organization. Hard to judge what the rest of the staff would be without this influence.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:15 AM ^
I'm not sure going for it on the 4th downs would have been a good idea. We've been pretty bad on 4th and short this year.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
was thinking the same thing....... we don't have a hammering panda
we need a hammering panda
October 25th, 2019 at 9:19 AM ^
Not a great listen when Brian is THIS depressed. I mean come on. Yes OSU is great and M gets beat probably. But there is joy in watching football, specially Michigan football. There is fun in seeing the team dominate Penn state in 4th quarter. They played hard, and I respect that, cherish that and frankly enjoyed watching that on youtube/tv etc. Yes winning is fun, but I am not willing to be so negative as to not enjoy the process of football.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:37 AM ^
'we're on James Franklin level'
c'mon... really brian?
October 25th, 2019 at 11:14 AM ^
Franklin @ PSU 2015-2018:
38-15
1-3 bowl games
2 top 10 finishes, 3 top 25 finishes
1 Conference title
2-3 vs. Harbaugh
Harbaugh at Michigan:
38-14
1-3 bowl games
1 top 10 finish, 3 top 25 finishes
0 conference title
3-2 vs. Franklin
October 25th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
Yeah actually. If anything Franklins better given the hardware.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
You always have to have a Brian in the room. And listen to him even if you don’t agree or ultimately follow him. When everyone is wearing rose colored glasses and patting each other on the back for too long, a painful reality will find you. Ask Notre Dame, USC, FSU. And us. And if there is a just God, Ohio State someday soon.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:59 AM ^
The difference is I don't think everyone is wearing rose colored glasses. Feng isn't known for his polyannaish outlook. I think Brian is just to the point where he's reading the data in the worst possible way. He seems one step away from how he was with Hoke during concussion-gate; and the objective reality of Michigan football is oceans away from that.
October 25th, 2019 at 11:59 AM ^
Yeah, at no point would Ed be considered a sunshine blower about Michigan football. Like, I don't agree with his analysis all the time but the guy clearly has some basis for his takes.
October 25th, 2019 at 9:55 AM ^
Ennui Brian can be fun, but this year he’s gone full blown Eeyore and is dangerously close to just becoming “negative hot take” guy. Not quite hot take, because he’ll back it up with a pile of data, but it’s still a pile of data that he’s started passing through a max depression filter to serve the downer narrative.
“One game season”. Bullshit. There are two more rivals on the schedule. LFG. Look, I’m not expecting us to beat OSU either, but if we lose that game, I’m gonna let it depress me for a day. I’m not going to be bummed out every Saturday between now and then and then all offseason over it. At this point if we do manage to pull out a victory over the Buckeyes I’m convinced Brian is going to UFR it just to prove it was all a fluke and Michigan is still doomed to mediocrity.
“If Shea has this game in the context of a decent season, we are disappointed in his performance in this game”. WTF? If Shea was always great, this good game would be disappointing? What is the point of this tautological statement except to crap on people who enjoy watching the team improve, even if it’s in fits and starts?
c’mon man, if people can write detailed reviews of every game of Illinois football, you can find a way to bring some joy back to following the Wolverines.
October 25th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
I actually get the impression that it's Brian's optimism at the start of the season that has led to this negativity. Illini fans expect their program to suck. Michigan fans expect their program to excel.
Brian was fairly optimistic at the start of the season. For example:
- "For the first time in a very long time Michigan might have a clear advantage at QB in The Game." and overall QB rating was 5/5. Brian's prediction was "Patterson sets a Michigan record for touchdown throws. He finishes 7th in Heisman voting."
- Brian was encouraged by the Gattis hire and predicted "Michigan finishes 8th in offensive SP+." (We're 52nd right now.)
I'm not making excuses for Brian -- I'm not a huge fan of the pessimism, although I agree with him that objectively we're probably going to get rolled by Ohio State, again. I do think, though, that the ennui of Brian and the Michigan fanbase is based on eternal optimism followed by the crushing reality that Ohio State and the other bluebloods that we would like to consider our competition have reloaded while we look shitty on offense against mediocre teams. Illini fans don't have to deal with that swing -- they anticipate being shitty and they are (mostly) shitty.
October 25th, 2019 at 11:02 AM ^
I see that as a fatal flaw with many Michigan fans. Not being able to look objective reality in the face and just give in to crazy optimism. I think we all did with Gattis this year. We didn't take the risk seriously. And so the fall is that much harder.
But maybe it's starting to turn.
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