What I didn't know about the Coaches Poll
Looked at the point totals for today's Coaches Poll. Looks like we're solidly behind LSU, but only slightly ahead of Georgia. The key is gaining and maintaining separation from LSU/Georgia in the SEC and Oklahoma/Texas in the Big 12.
Then wondered who might have given MSU a point (for 25th). Then checked the voting coaches roster. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2018/08/02/amway-coaches-poll-65-college-football-coaches-panel/881592002/
I was mistaken in thinking every coach votes. Simple addition could have given me a clue. Of the Top Ten, Michigan, ND, Oklahoma and UCF are not represented. Not sure what this might mean for the first CFP rankings, but the CFP board could have a slightly or more than slightly different view of the top ten than either coaches or media. Could move us up or down, but I doubt Harbaugh gets the benefit of the doubt from some of these coaches, especially the Liar and the Scowler. Same from SEC coaches.
Obviously, things will move based on performance, but the very fact that not all coaches vote and we've heard how staffers often fill out ballots makes me think this poll may not translate into similar rankings after the first four.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^
How stupid is it that OSU only fell to 9th? I'm mad that I even care about this
October 21st, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^
They're 7-1 and they didn't lose to Maryland, like a team ahead of them did.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:42 PM ^
They just got blown out by a team that lost to EMU. I know teams evolve throughout the season, but they were obliterated by someone who lost to a MAC team. This doesn't generally happen to top 10 teams. And they struggled with Minnesota and Indiana. They have no defense and they can't run the ball. How can any reasonable person think they're a top 10 team.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
Because if we lost by 29 points to a .500 team that lost to EMU, we’d only drop 7 spots in the coaches too
s/
October 21st, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Michigan is going to have to convince the selection committee they belong in the top 4. I hate to say this but... beating an undefeated, #2 ranked OSU would have been a lot more valuable than beating an OSU team that has a loss and is not ranked in the top 10.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:50 PM ^
Honestly, at this point I would rather Michigan spank a helpless OSU @ the Horseshoe leaving no doubt on the score board, in the final record, or in the rankings that we are #1.... and that the Tide has shifted. I want recruits to be overwhelmed by what Urban could not get out of his 5* studded team, and to choose Michigan instead. If that means winning B1G Championship but missing out of the playoffs because of some stupid rule... this year I am fine with that. (not happy about the idea, but fine with watching OSU slither into the dark hole from which they came).
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
OSU could lose to MSU in E. Lansing on Nov. 10. I would not be at all shocked. Now; would that be a good thing or a bad thing for Michigan?
October 22nd, 2018 at 12:00 PM ^
Speaking of "Tide", if Alabama can beat up on helpless teams and still get positive reviews about it, we should get some good props if we beat a 1 or 2 loss Buckeye team at the 'shoe...
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
This is the smartest deep-breath comment I have heard from any of my fellow Wolverines in the last 36 hours. Not pertaining to the Coaches Poll particularly, but the general nature of the OSU loss and its effect on all of the playoff metrics.
I hope you don't mind, RAH, if I quote you extensively.
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:23 AM ^
If OSU wins there next three games they will easily be top 10 again. Then we will have 4 wins against ranked teams in the last 6 games. Plus the Big Ten Title game. Win out and we are a lock for the playoff.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^
The key is win your games. If UM wins out they are in 100%.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:09 PM ^
This is the NCAA we are talking about - we have a loss it will never be 100%
October 22nd, 2018 at 12:47 AM ^
The key is the coaches poll means nothing anymore.
October 22nd, 2018 at 1:32 AM ^
Assuming Bama, Clemson & ND hold set, if Oklahoma wins out they'd definitely be in the conversation. I think we still get the nod with a stronger strength of schedule, but it's nowhere near 100%. If Texas wins out we should be solid due to their Maryland loss since the committee does consider common opponents.
October 22nd, 2018 at 7:46 AM ^
100%. Just like how the committee wanted OSU in the first playoff over TCU. They want Harbaugh and Michigan in. They wanted them in 2016 and if not for one of games (either Iowa or OSU) they would have been in.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:33 PM ^
Was this written by a bot?
October 21st, 2018 at 10:34 PM ^
This has no effect on the committee’s rankings - at least not officially. Neither does the AP poll.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:50 PM ^
I could have been a little clearer, but I get that. Just speculating on how different the CFP committee's rankings could be from what we've been seeing. They might see us closer to LSU than the coaches or writers, which would be encouraging for final outcomes.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:56 PM ^
Even that doesn’t matter. LSU plays Bama soon. Either they lose and they’re out of the playoff, or they have the best win of any team in the country by far and clearly deserve to be ahead.
Michigan is 98% in if we win out. Better schedule, better wins, and a better loss than Oklahoma. The PAC 12 is basically done. The only worry is a bizarre one-loss Bama scenario. We’ll be fine.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:11 PM ^
The 1-loss Bama scenario isn't even that bizarre. They could lose to LSU, or they could lose in the SEC Championship game. Then there's Clemson, Notre Dame, and the SEC Champion. I've already seen people on Twitter advocating that Alabama get in as the 4th team over Michigan in those scenarios. It doesn't make any sense to me, and I think the precedent is against it, but that's where we are at this point.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:06 PM ^
Alabama will knock off LSU and Georgia (if they win the SEC east, in the SEC championship game). Michigan will have the 4th spot if we win the remainder our games. May be jump ahead of ND to the third spot. I much rather play Clemson than Alabama in the first round.
October 22nd, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^
History shows the committee does not line up with polls.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
For what it's worth, these rankings are for entertainment purposes only and give us a barometer of where teams stand. Michigan's bye comes before the first playoff committee poll comes out, so we get the benefit of any doubt resulting from this weekend's games.
I don't see the committee putting Michigan in the Top Four week one. But that will change based on the upcoming schedule.
The biggest game next Saturday is Florida-Georgia. And the following week is huge with Alabama going to Baton Rouge to play LSU and Michigan squaring off at home against Penn State. Notre Dame has Navy and Northwestern the next two weeks.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:37 PM ^
Among the undefeated teams, OSU was 2nd. Now among the one loss teams, they're 6th. That's a substantial drop.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
Recency bias is anreal thing in college football.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:45 PM ^
Recency bias is anreal thing in college football.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:01 PM ^
.....as is a 29 point loss to a .500 team.
October 21st, 2018 at 10:58 PM ^
Recency, yes, but also quality of the loss. They looked baaaad. Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, and of course Michigan have losses that are much more defensible.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:02 PM ^
We need to 'kill it' on the bye week. Notre Dame jumped up on their bye week. One more spot up should do it and then we have a chance to replay those domers.
October 22nd, 2018 at 6:36 AM ^
I don't want the D to give up a single point next weekend.
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^
I'd be extremely disappointed if they even gave up a yard this Saturday coming up. We need to shut this bye week down.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:06 PM ^
I hate to say this but ND should be ranked in front of Clemson. Not sure if they are better but ACC is weak AF this year and ND has better wins. Lets hope FSU can pull the upset this week. Also, would help if PSU would soundly beat Iowa - we are going to need all the quality ranked wins we can get.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:45 PM ^
Yes. Clemson almost lost - perhaps should have lost - that game to Syracuse. At home.
October 21st, 2018 at 11:35 PM ^
The key is...
Win the next game. Polls will take care of themselves.
October 22nd, 2018 at 7:12 AM ^
Need Bama to win out to give Georgia and LSU two losses. (Assuming Georgia makes it to the title game)
October 22nd, 2018 at 11:50 AM ^
So you're saying that PSU voted for msu so that they can say their only losses were to ranked teams? Makes sense.