Believe it or not, the team's shooting issues come up either directly or indirectly a few times. Let's dive in.
Is there a chance that our 3pt shooting going in the toilet is at all related to the coaching change? Meaning, is is possible that Beilein would have devoted hours to shooting form and mechanics while Juwan is focused more on addressing other things (aka post defense)?
Adam
Chicago, IL
AC1997
I wouldn't be surprised if there's a small impact on shooting because of practice focus—John Beilein is famously maniacal about fundamentals, after all. That doesn't nearly cover the gap in shooting from last year to this year, however. Michigan was in line to have an excellent shooting team this year regardless of the coach; then their top two outside shooters left for the NBA and the third got hurt.
It helps to look at a visual of last year's three-point distribution compared to this year's. Below is a table showing the top shooters by share of the team's total three-point attempts on the season, followed by their three-point percentage.
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
Jordan Poole: 24% share/made 37% |
Eli Brooks: 19%/38% |
Iggy Brazdeikis: 17%/39% |
Franz Wagner: 17%/29% |
Isaiah Livers: 15%/43% |
Isaiah Livers: 12%/50% |
Zavier Simpson: 12%/31% |
David DeJulius: 12%/36% |
Charles Matthews: 12%/30% |
Zavier Simpson: 11%/32% |
Jon Teske: 9%/30% |
Jon Teske: 10%/27% |
Eli Brooks: 6%/29% |
Adrien Nunez: 8%/27% |
David DeJulius: 2%/6% |
Brandon Johns: 5%/29% |
While the 2018-19 squad was not a good shooting team by Beilein standards, the top three shooters formed a dangerous trio, and at least two of them were on the court at nearly all times. This year's starting lineup with Isaiah Livers injured features only one reliable shooter. Franz Wagner's struggles have really hurt. The team has pushed more shots to marginal shooters; this year's Brandon Johns attempts are coming in the competitive portion of games, while last year's David DeJulius chucks were not.
When you remove Livers from this year's team, you get into non-shooter territory in a hurry. That hurts everyone's shooting; when teams can all but ignore three players as outside threats, they can clog the paint without giving up open looks to the primary shooters.
Given the personnel, I'm not ready to make a judgment on Juwan Howard's impact on shooting. This team generates plenty of good looks. Other than Simpson, who was equally bad under Beilein, nobody has obvious mechanical issues—Wagner's shots, for example, look like they should go down.
A portion of Michigan's shooting struggles is due to roster makeup. Another portion is due to rotten luck. (The dirty secret about college basketball stats: a full season is still a small sample size.) Compared to those two, any coaching impact is minor.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]
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