juwan howard is different than john beilein

I'm off for the next week to recharge, so I figured before I go a combined MBB/WBB mailbag was in order, starting with a MBB/WBB combo question.

The Ultimate Basketball School?

Which school is poised for the best combined success in men's and women's basketball over the next decade? Is Michigan better positioned than Baylor or UCONN? #mgomailbag

— Matthew Duprey, PharmD, PhD (@PharmDuprey) April 8, 2021

Unless Kim Mulkey's behavior catches up to her on the recruiting trail, which hasn't happened despite her history of poorly worded (at best) statements and fraught relationship with some former players, it's hard to say any program is better positioned than Baylor. The men's team just won a national championship after making it at least as far as the Sweet Sixteen five times since 2010. The women's team has made 12 straight Sweet Sixteens and captured national titles in 2005, 2012, and 2019.

After relying almost entirely on the transfer portal to assemble this year's champs, Scott Drew recruited at a top-ten level for the 2021 class headlined by five-star wing Kendall Brown and already has a top-50 commit for 2022. It's hard to imagine that slows down now that he has a ring to show off.

UConn, meanwhile, is poised for continued dominance on the women's side. They have the best player in the country, Paige Bueckers, heading into her sophomore season, and she'll be joined by another #1 overall recruit in DC PG Azzi Fudd along with (depending on where you look) either two or three more 2021 five-star signees. Of any individual program mentioned in this section, UConn WBB has the best chance of winning a national championship in the next three years—it'd be somewhere between a surprise and a shock if they didn't get at least one.

On the men's side, though, the Huskies have the weakest program in this section. Since their unexpected national title as a seven-seed in 2014, they've made two tourneys (as a 7- and 9-seed) and haven't made it out of the opening weekend. Dan Hurley's recruiting has picked up steam but his classes are topping out with fringe top-50 prospects instead of five-stars. The last 247 composite five-star to sign with UConn was Jalen Adams in 2015 and he didn't live up to the billing, going undrafted and ending up in the G-League.

Michigan should slot in between those two schools in terms of combined success. Here's my stab at ranking these programs by most likely to win at least one national championship in the next ten years:

1. UConn WBB
2. Baylor WBB
(gap)
3. Michigan MBB
4. Baylor MBB
(gap)
5. Michigan WBB
6. UConn MBB

[Hit THE JUMP for how the WBB team can move up those rankings, a look at their recruiting, how fast PGs can pick up Juwan Howard's system, and more.]

I GUESS WE SHOULD ADDRESS THIS:

NBA storylines we'll be monitoring in the NCAA tournament: Juwan Howard, No. 1 pick candidates, mid-major prospects, upperclassmen vying for first round consideration and more (with @Mike_Schmitz)https://t.co/b5aP8xn8Wu

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) March 17, 2021

Seth: Hope Howard buys Jim a steak and milk with the money that used to be his.

BiSB: /Homer into the bushes and re-emerging meme/

Harbaugh NFL rumors
Howard NBA rumors

For those who don't know NBA Media... is this the same insular "The Shield is life" attitude, or would there be some meat behind it?

Brian: I have a hard time believing he'd leave before Jace and Jett are done.

Ace: Same here. NBA media aren’t as militant as NFL because, aside from basketball drawing better journalists than football in general, they’re more willing to acknowledge that they are two different games with different draws.

They will also acknowledge job security in a way NFL guys did not. The nba is ruthless, meanwhile Howard could be here forever.

BiSB: For immediate purposes, it feels like "Howard might leave for the NBA" rumors are less damaging for recruiting purposes in basketball than football, at least for top-flight guys.

Ace: I don’t think anyone is taking them too seriously.

BiSB: True, but even if they persist.

Alex: Also important to draw a distinction between “NBA wants Juwan” (which... of course. I can’t believe Minnesota hired Flip’s failson instead of him.) and “Howard interested in NBA.” I don’t know if anyone would offer him Full Control like SVG had with the Pistons or whatever but I’m sure there will be interest from pretty much every team that may have an opening.

Ace: FWIW the NBA as a whole has been pretty bad about promoting longtime black assistants and that may sour Howard on the league a bit. Seeing Steve Nash get a head coaching job with zero experience after he got passed up multiple times has to stick. They’re talking about maybe needing an NBA version of the Rooney Rule.

[After THE JUMP: Who’s worried not worried]

Michigan probably could've avoided overtime in this one.

Facing an Oakland squad playing their fourth game in five days, the Wolverines were flummoxed in the first half by the Golden Grizzlies' zone defense, turning the ball over 15 times before the break. A baseline hook by Trey Townsend on one of a handful of designed plays OU had time to install in a COVID-ravaged preseason gave the visitors a shocking 33-31 halftime lead.

Everything that could go wrong in the first half did go wrong. In addition to the comical number of turnovers, there was Mike Smith picking up two fouls, Franz Wagner scoring a mere two points, Chaundee Brown crashing back to earth as a shooter, and Isaiah Livers getting into a yelling match with Juwan Howard in the huddle, then throwing a Gatorade cooler when he was pulled shortly thereafter.

dime [Campredon]

Presumably, Michigan would settle their differences, adjust to the zone, clean up the turnovers, and pull away. They did this. Eventually.

The key was freshman center Hunter Dickinson. Oakland had no answer for his post scoring and exquisite passing. He flashed the latter in the first half with a nifty assist to Brandon Johns but went scoreless in only nine minutes. Once he got into the game again, Michigan was fine.

The trouble was Howard didn't insert Dickinson back into the game until nearly nine minutes had elapsed in the second half. Michigan had continued to struggle with the zone, shooting 3-for-11 in the half before Dickinson replaced Austin Davis, who hadn't built on a couple early buckets and wasn't containing OU on defense. Smith had created a couple quick baskets in transition before picking up his third foul and coming out. The Grizzlies pushed their lead to six points multiple times, including the possession after Dickinson checked in.

That'd be the last time Michigan faced that large a deficit. On the ensuing trip down the floor, Terrance Williams slipped a pass to Dickinson for a dunk. For the rest of the game, the Wolverines ran through Dickinson. He scored 13 points on seven shooting possessions, dished out three assists, pulled down a couple boards, and grabbed a critical steal in the second half. He dunked in traffic. He created dunks for others. He called out cutters on defense. He looked nothing like a freshman.

you'll never guess who assisted this dunk [Campredon]

Michigan still needed more. Despite some good looks, they missed six of their last eight shots in the half. That included a desperate chuck from Dickinson at the buzzer after OU blew up the initial plan to get it to him in the high post and the play completely broke down. Just prior, a bump by Livers on the baseline sent Rashad Williams to the line for two bonus free throws that tied the game. The heavy home favorites were going to overtime.

And then it was over. Dickinson won the overtime tipoff, ducked into the post, caught an entry pass from Livers, and laid the ball in. After that, OU had to foul him pretty much every time he touched the ball, giving him four more points at the line. With M's defense flying to the ball, a couple Livers triples put the game way out of reach. The final ten-point margin almost looked respectable as long as you ignored the "(OT)" next to the final score.

The Wolverines played about as a poor a game imaginable, didn't maximize their available talent, and managed to come away with a win. Dickinson finished plus-18 in 25 minutes. The other other players to come close to that +/- were the two whose minutes most closely aligned with the freshman center's time on the floor.

A close call against a bad team isn't the ideal way to figure out the best lineup. There are worries out of this one—Brown's bad game, Brooks' turnovers, and Wagner's continued lack of production chief among them. But every team has their duds. Michigan won theirs, and in the process, Dickinson may have forced Howard to adjust the lineup in a way that'll provide short- and long-term benefits.

[Hit THE JUMP for the full photo album and box score.]