josh christopher

Jace Howard to Walk On

The first bit of major roster news to break last night was TMI's Josh Henschke reporting that Jace Howard will join the program as a walk-on. This isn't a major surprise—his dad is the head coach and once signed the then-biggest contract in NBA history—and it opens up a scholarship while Michigan pursues Josh Christopher and grad transfers.

That news got superceded in the witching hour, however.

Colin Castleton Enters Transfer Portal

Castleton had a hard time getting off the bench as the season went on [Campredon]

Michigan's offseason approach foreshadowed unexpected attrition and that describes Colin Castleton's decision to put his name in the transfer portal, news that broke after midnight. Castleton's departure leaves two traditional centers, redshirt senior Austin Davis and blue chip freshman Hunter Dickinson, on scholarship for next year's team.

Castleton's transfer didn't come entirely out of left field. After beginning last season as Jon Teske's primary backup, Castleton fell behind Davis not long after Michigan's early-season schedule got difficult; the skinny sophomore needed another year before he'd be ready to match up with the bigger and stronger competition. Relegated to garbage time and the occasional two-big lineup, he cracked double-digit minutes only once after the calendar flipped to 2020, and that came in a Rutgers game Isaiah Livers missed to injury.

While our maxim of never giving up on big men applies to Castleton, between the declining minutes, playing for a coach that didn't recruit him, Davis's return for a redshirt senior year, and the addition of Dickinson, it's understandable why he'd seek another opportunity.

While Castleton's departure leaves Michigan with two true bigs, they have plenty of flexibility with the current projected roster. Brandon Johns ended up playing more at center than Castleton by the end of the season and should only be better suited for that role with another season of experience. Isaiah Livers, should he take his name out of the draft, played a little small-ball center under Beilein. Incoming freshman Isaiah Todd, should he remain in the class, has the potential to be a switchable nightmare against certain lineups.

Castleton never seemed to mesh with what Juwan Howard wanted out of his center. I still like Castleton's talent but it makes sense that he'd look to utilize it in another system. Michigan, meanwhile, should be able to absorb the hit if they don't have too many more departures, and we'll see if Castleton's exit spurs them to look at a grad transfer big man.

[Hit THE JUMP for the current scholarship situation and the potential roster developments.]

Michigan is currently sitting at number four nationally in the 2020 team rankings per 247. While it may not be in the cards to lock down the top spot, the Wolverines have a legitimate chance to pull-in their best recruiting class since 2012 and on par with the likes of Duke and Kentucky. We gained a bit more clarity for available scholarships this week as some of the current personnel went public with their decisions and now is a good time to examine where we stand on the recruiting trail.

California Dreaming

Consensus 5star prospect Josh Christopher played with the hearts of many last week when he tweeted an edit of himself in a Missouri jersey………….and followed up minutes later with posted edits of Arizona State, UCLA and Michigan as well. Christopher himself provided everyone a sigh of relief when he essentially said gotcha(!) with this:

Okay next time I make a post about college, it’ll be a commitment. Fr this time trust , no more games

— Josh(ua) Christopher (@Jaygup23) March 25, 2020

Wolverine Nation’s anticipation on this recruitment is at peak levels, with the Michigan edit getting over 1,300 retweets and nearly 10,000 likes. And from what I’m hearing the optimism may be warranted. My sources tell me Michigan sits in good position with Josh, and while it may not be a done deal, the expectation is that he will commit to Michigan as it stands right now. Our 2020 commits are also confident that Christopher will make his way to Ann Arbor.

In news that may not seem relevant at first glance, 2020 4star Cliff Omoruyi committed to Rutgers on Sunday. The interesting note here is that Omoruyi is rumored to be telling folks that Josh Christopher to Michigan is happening. Normally, you take something like that with a grain of salt. The fact that Cliff seemed destined for Arizona State, only to pick Rutgers at the last minute, may lend credence to his alleged claim.

Rivals doubled-down on their Josh is boarding the Wolverine Express projection this morning with Corey Evans’ weekly Twitter Tuesday:

“Christopher has not set a commitment date and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he just randomly announced his decision on social media. There really is no rush on his part, though, but it does feel as if a commitment is imminent and I expect him to pick Michigan.”

Your author was among the first to note that Christopher’s informal top two were Michigan/Arizona State, with many others corroborating the same later on. So I decided to check in on the Arizona State insiders to measure the confidence in Tempe. The ASU folks have been overly confident throughout, so to see the Sun Devil Source temper expectations…

“Dead even with Michigan. [Chances of ASU landing Josh]”

…last week was pleasant.

This is the most optimistic I’ve been with regard to Josh Christopher, I’d peg the chances at 70/30 for the L.A. native suiting up for Juwan Howard next year as of today.

[Hit THE JUMP for Greg Brown news and updates/film for the 2021 offers]

Let's dive back in to more of your questions, starting with what makes for a successful coach.

Hi Ace,

Curious on your thoughts on what the most important aspects to being a great college coach are (e.g. 40% recruiting/roster management, 30% team management, 20% PR/face of program, 10% scheme/Xs-and-Os, etc), and how you'd grade Howard's first season along those lines, as well as a prognosis going forward.

Best,
Mike

I'll preface with this: there's a lot more than one way to be a highly successful college coach. Recruiting at a high level can cover for shortcomings as a strategist. A strong player development program can make up for recruiting lesser talent than your peers. John Beilein and Larry Brown have (officially) made the same number of Final Fours. Same goes for Bill Self and Jay Wright. These coaches aren't similar in on- or off-court approach but they've fit at their respective schools, which is arguably the most important factor.

If I had to break it down into categories, they'd be: fit with school/administration, recruiting/image, roster management, player development, scheme, and game management. While an elite college coach doesn't have to be great at every one of these factors, they usually check off most of the boxes.

It's early yet to be able to judge Juwan Howard on some of these. A quick stab at grades:

Fit with school/administration: A. I'm assuming the readers of this post are familiar with Juwan Howard, former All-American at Michigan, basketball lifer, and universally regarded good dude. It's hard to overstate how fortunate the program was that such a tight fit was available despite the late timing of John Beilein's departure.

Recruiting/image: A. Howard is the face of the program, his first recruiting class ranks fourth in the country, and he could still add a second five-star to that group. This moves up to an A+ if Josh Christopher commits—it'd be difficult to imagine a better start after Howard had to hit the ground running with a 2020 class that needed more commits than usual.

Roster management: Incomplete. We'll learn more about Howard's ability to juggle a roster this offseason. He appears prepared for unexpected attrition with Michigan's pursuit of multiple grad transfer point guards even though the team is full for the moment after scratching Austin Davis and Adrien Nunez off the potential attrition list.

Beilein learned the hard way that great programs lose players at a steady rate to both the NBA and programs where even established rotation players can find more playing time; it took him a while to adjust and he still got caught off-guard by last year's early entry decisions by Jordan Poole and Iggy Brazdeikis. Howard seems to know how the game is played and his experience as both a former elite player and the father of high-level prospects should serve him well.

Player development: Incomplete. The unexpected breakout of Austin Davis indicates Howard at least should be good at getting the most out of his big men. That said, it's way too early to put a grade on his player development. This is something to revisit a year or three down the road.

Scheme: B+. I really like the framework. Howard didn't stand pat with John Beilein's offense despite having his pick-and-roll duo as seniors, instead building around the ball screen offense with plenty of NBA sets and added wrinkles. The defensive philosophy was also clear: play man defense with the occasional zone changeup (almost always after a timeout), use drop pick-and-roll coverage when possible, run shooters off the arc, and force players to beat you one-on-one.

I need to see more to move the grade any higher, especially since he could build so much off the Simpson/Teske pick-and-roll—we'll get a clearer view of how Howard wants to operate as he molds the roster to his preference instead of working with another coach's players.

Game management: B-. The area I most want to see improvement. Howard made some strange lineup decisions during the season that were usually borne of his strong adherence to the hated autobench policy. His best schematic adjustments often came either between games against the same opponent (see: hedging Cassius Winston and leaving Xavier Tillman to shoot in the second MSU game) or too late in the game to alter the outcome (see: playing Brandon Johns at center against Wisconsin).

I wouldn't say Howard was bad at game management by any stretch. He had to work within some serious limitations when Franz Wagner and Isaiah Livers were absent for significant stretches of time. He utilized timeouts well on both ends, drawing up effective plays and using that zone changeup to flummox offenses running a set to beat man. I would've loved to see him in a postseason tournament setting this year. Alas.

[Hit THE JUMP for what I'm missing most about the tournament, what next year's offense could look like, and more.]