Vikings' first round draft grades
I started doing a round up and found that the SI Vikings' site had most of them. Grades are all over the place. I think JJ ended up in a good situation and will surprise people with the Vikings.
Nick Baumgardner, The Athletic: A
He may need to learn behind Sam Darnold for a minute, but I love his long-term fit with coach Kevin O’Connell and think he could be more ready than some believe.
Brent Sobleski, Bleacher Report: A
Kudos, Minnesota Vikings. They didn't bite on all the rumor-mongering about McCarthy going much higher in the draft. Instead of moving their extra first-round pick to trade up into the top five, the Vikings flipped fourth- and fifth-round picks to move up one spot, while getting a sixth-rounder back.
Joseph Acosta, SB Nation: A-
The Vikings didn’t have to move heaven and Earth to trade up, and eventually got the guy that would fit their offense. I think McCarthy is a ways away from being a starter, but he doesn’t have to start right away with Sam Darnold playing. McCarthy is a confident passer off play action and a good enough athlete to make the O’Connell offense work in the long term. Good fit for Minnesota and McCarthy.
A- (includes Dallas Turner)
Analysis: The Vikings moved up one spot to grab McCarthy, presumably to box out Denver and Las Vegas. He did not throw 40 times per game in Michigan's run-heavy offense, but he has plenty of arm, excellent mobility and accuracy throwing to either side of the field. He can surprise with his open-field speed, and his ability to win games at the high school and collegiate level carries weight with NFL teams. While not a physical specimen, he is similarly built to C.J. Stroud and other quarterbacks recently drafted with top-10 picks. The Vikings made a pre-draft trade with the Texans to get a second first-round selection (23rd overall) and then moved up from that spot to nab Turner. His 4.46 40 turned heads at the combine, but he still fell, thanks to the rush for quarterbacks and likely also because of his average size for the position (6-2 3/4-inch, 247 pounds). He uses that low center of gravity and 34 3/8-inch arms to separate from blockers playing the run and long-arm them into the quarterback in pass-rush mode. He's a very good value at 17, even though today's trade ate away at the team's mid-round capital, both this year and next. This draft is lean at edge rusher, and the Vikings decided to take a risk.
Rang: A dominant defense and run-heavy offense provided McCarthy limited opportunities to pad his stats, but when he was called upon to make important throws, he showed zip, accuracy, mobility and mettle. He does not possess the howitzer of some of the other quarterbacks of this class. However, leadership and charisma matter at quarterback, and McCarthy has perhaps the best combination of that in this year's class. Few would recognize that more than a former quarterback — like Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.
Grade: B+
The Vikings' patience pays off, as they make a much smaller (and far cheaper) move up the board to land their new franchise quarterback. McCarthy is largely unproven as a passer after playing in Michigan's run-heavy offense, but he's got tons of potential, and his skill set is a perfect fit for Kevin O'Connell's offense. This looks much better than moving up into the top five for the same player.
GRADE: B+
Charles McDonald, Yahoo! Sports: B+
Getting the quarterback without having to move up too far in the draft is a solid result for the Vikings. It may not be the quarterback they originally wanted, but it's still a solid prospect to build around and he's walking into a great situation.
Grade: B-
Minnesota didn't have to give up a bounty to secure its quarterback. That's a significant victory given the tough spot this franchise is in as it tries to reset while simultaneously competing. Still, it's fair to feel underwhelmed with McCarthy as the successor to Kirk Cousins. Not only is the signal-caller somewhat of a mystery box after his time at Michigan, he's also not the drastic stylistic shift from Cousins that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seemed intrigued by and that the team could have gotten from, say, Drake Maye. The setup for McCarthy is quite promising, though, as Kevin O'Connell can help him play efficiently early in his career with tons of play action and intermediate throws. And it doesn't hurt to have Justin Jefferson to bail him out.
Matt Verderame, SI.com: B-
During his time in Ann Arbor, McCarthy never threw for 3,000 yards in either one of his starting campaigns. The question is how much he can develop at the pro level.
Grade: B-
Minnesota didn't have to give up a bounty to secure its quarterback. That's a significant victory given the tough spot this franchise is in as it tries to reset while simultaneously competing. Still, it's fair to feel underwhelmed with McCarthy as the successor to Kirk Cousins. Not only is the signal-caller somewhat of a mystery box after his time at Michigan, he's also not the drastic stylistic shift from Cousins that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seemed intrigued by and that the team could have gotten from, say, Drake Maye. The setup for McCarthy is quite promising, though, as Kevin O'Connell can help him play efficiently early in his career with tons of play action and intermediate throws. And it doesn't hurt to have Justin Jefferson to bail him out.
While we understand the Vikings needed a quarterback and felt like they had to trade up get them, we don’t have J.J. McCarthy graded high enough to warrant this type of a move and pick.
Grade: C
Grade: C+
They had to fill the quarterback spot, so it makes sense to take McCarthy. I don't love him as much as others do, but it will be interesting to see how Kevin O'Connell and company will make it work.
Touchdown Wire (USA Today)
Minnesota Vikings select Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick. Grade: D
J.J. McCarthy is a good quarterback. If you trade up into the top 10 of a draft to get a good quarterback, as opposed to a field-tilting quarterback, you had better hope everything goes well around him. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has the playbook and the weapons to make the most of McCarthy, but the low ceiling shows up all over his tape. This seems like a misunderstanding of his NFL potential, and that’s why the grade is so low.
During his time in Ann Arbor, McCarthy never threw for 3,000 yards
He passed for 2,991 yards last season. I guess if he’d completed one more 9-yard pass this reporter would be sold? Good grief.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:07 AM ^
Yeah, he averages 9 ypa, more than Drake May, and had an average depth of target if 10.3 yards, which was more than Williams or Nix. The idea that 3,000 yards is some sacred efficiency number and not just a byproduct of throwing the ball 400 times a season is crazy to me. And let's be honest - McCarthy threw against something like 5 of the top 10 defenses in the country this year while most of these other guys threw against mediocre defenses regularly.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:09 AM ^
Don't forget that he didn't play a fourth quarter until, what, Penn St.?
April 26th, 2024 at 10:39 AM ^
I came to terms a long time ago that the teams who are running up the scores, stat padding, keeping their hero-ball QBs in the whole game, etc…are doing the “right” thing.
I disagree with that approach…but there’s demonstrated rewards for doing so. Between draft evals which seem to take box scores as some holy divide between “good” and “bad”, awards which seem to only look at the number of TDs thrown, and a Playoff Committee which has ADMITTED that they take style points and score differential into consideration…there’s actual, tangible punishment for shutting your offense down after a game is functionally over.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^
I see your point and don’t disagree to how big scores / point differentials are viewed.
My view has always been.. the trade off - which is - a big score with starters vs game reps for the 2’s, 3’s, and 4’s on the depth chart. The big score is a short term boost - while the game reps is the long term investment. I always favor the long term approach - game reps are irreplaceable.
So I read that touchdown wire article because I thought "that sounds like some dumb analysis, wonder what else they think" and they gave a B grade to the Falcons for Penix and said this:
Well, this was unexpected. Michael Penix Jr. is the best pure thrower in this draft class, and he’s got a ton of weapons in his new home, but the Falcons just gave Kirk Cousins a mega-contract. It will be fascinating to see how Raheem Morris lines this all up, but Penix’s talent is undeniable if he can fix some iffy throws under pressure.
So yes, if Penix finds a way to not play poorly when the other team gets pressure on him he'll be great, which is something that applies to every QB drafted ever. I like Penix enough as a QB but at some point "he can't move and turns into a below average QB when blitzed" is a bad sign for your future franchise QB.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:41 AM ^
Not saying they’re going to turn out the same, but wasn’t the book on CJ Stroud pretty similar?
April 26th, 2024 at 11:30 AM ^
To an extent but Stroud didn't have a series of lower-body injuries, wasn't 23, and had shown mobility outside of the pocket at OSU to a degree that you could see it was there if he needed it.
Also, Stroud's drop off under pressure wasn't great (I think it was mid-to-low 50% completion percentage) but I saw today that Penix under pressure last year was 41% and 5 TDs to 6 picks. That's not great to a degree far worse than Stroud. And again, he's a guy with physical limits that Stroud didn't have.
Penix might buck the trend as well but I also sense that GMs might be doing what they did with Josh Allen a bit, where the one time an inaccurate QB in college became really good in the pros makes them overlook the bevy who didn't. Same with Penix and Stroud, where the one guy who really morphed into a solid under pressure guy makes people ignore the myriad of guys who turf throws with a blitz on the way
April 26th, 2024 at 10:13 AM ^
The one that made me realize that these guys are bias and mostly full of crap was this one:
Grade: C+
They had to fill the quarterback spot, so it makes sense to take McCarthy. I don't love him as much as others do, but it will be interesting to see how Kevin O'Connell and company will make it work
Compare that with his draft grade on the Falcons…
Falcons 8- Michael Penix, j.r.
They opted to take their quarterback of the future by taking Penix. He has all the tools, but will learn and wait behind Kirk Cousins. I wonder if he can rush the passer. Like the player, but don't like the pick. Grade: B
Saw that too. Prisco's rationale on the scoring makes zero sense at all. Penix at #8 is a terrible pick for the Falcons. I hate the pick b/c they have needs RIGHT NOW that should have been addressed. That should be a C- at best.
JJ at #10 - when he was significantly higher on most draft boards, including that of Bill Belichik - is a relative steal at a position of need.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:15 AM ^
"He doesn't possess a howitzer like other QBs in class..."
Not sure the person that made this comment watched much of JJ! The dude has a rocket arm!
April 26th, 2024 at 10:28 AM ^
The success of an NFL QB is very much chance and system. Further, the QB’s ability to process information and read defenses quickly -and study his ass off - is huge.
Lamar Jackson is currently not in the NFL if Baltimore decides to not build an entire offense around him and be patient with his growth as a passer.
Joe Montana - Bill Walsh, west coast offense. Never had the physical attributes of Marino or Elway
Patrick Mahomes - probably putting up numbers anywhere, but winning at this rate - the marriage with Andy Reid and his play calling are huge.
Brady - obviously…always clutch and hardest worker in the building, but Pats defense carried those early teams until he became Tom f’ing Brady.
JJ seems to be in a good spot to develop
Patriots in their 1st Super Bowl win with Tom were something like 22nd in total defense.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:46 AM ^
Physical attributes matter only so much for a qb. Much more important, IMO, is what’s between the ears and McCarthy has that well above the other qbs taken (other than maybe Nix with his experience). Unfortunately, a lot of people look more at stats as a way of rating a qbs draft ranking. I think the Vikings got McCarthy at a very good spot for them, and in a few years it will look like one of the highest values for a pick in the 2024 draft.
April 26th, 2024 at 10:50 AM ^
The Touchdown Wire article is Doug Farrar. He wrote the piece saying that Harbaugh was 'mean' to his Stanford players.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2014/01/19/doug-baldwin-richard-sherman-jim-harbaugh-pete-carroll
Color me 'not shocked' that he would take a dig at a Harbaugh QB.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:14 AM ^
"...he's also not the drastic stylistic shift from Cousins that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah seemed intrigued by and that the team could have gotten from, say, Drake Maye."
So what kind of drastic, stylistic shift sstands between Drake Maye and JJ McCarthy? I mean, I watched UNC play several games over the last couple of years. They run a pro-style offense, similar to what Michigan ran only with more emphasis on throwing the ball. Maye sometimes had to bail out and run away from pressure. He's decent outside the pocket running the ball, but nobody would call him a 'running QB'. I think JJ is more mobile, though. The passing games were pretty similar, too, even if UNC threw downfield more often. And I see JJ's arm as better than Maye's - far more accurate in every day situations and so much more clutch than Maye can ever hope for.
I have no friggen' clue what people see in Maye over McCarthy. I just don't get it. If JJ's throws are just outside of 'arms reach' when we complain, Maye's are 3-5 yards from the receiver! WTF am I missing???
April 26th, 2024 at 11:26 AM ^
Now do the Lion's draft.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:34 AM ^
The JJ doesn't have a strong arm takes are just lazy and clearly people who didn't watch that much UM football. I mean due to the nature of the offense he didn't get to uncork long balls yes, but there were some intermediate throws he made that were only fit in because of his arm strength. Also several on the move throws he made look effortless which you can't do without a strong arm. Honestly the takes that JJ doesn't possess above average physical skills are just odd to me. Has good speed and agility when healthy, and has an above average arm.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:36 AM ^
"not a physical specimen"
Is JJ that much smaller than Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen? Critics are finding any way they can to knock JJ down.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:56 AM ^
JJ looked THICC at his draft party. He clearly put on some weight (all weight gain is good) as I'm sure he needed to bulk up for the NFL.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^
I watched a ton of reacts to the Vikes pick last night.
The best one by far was Bill Belichick breaking down his film. He had one bad thing to say and everything else sounded like Harbaugh fawning over him.
JJ gonna star. It’s going to be pick 4 vs pick 10 for OROTY.
April 26th, 2024 at 11:59 AM ^
Just to clarify, I’ve never taken the top pick seriously. All athlete with no need to ever read a college defense is not a great predictor of future success. Biggest gamble in the draft
April 26th, 2024 at 12:06 PM ^
The 33rd team gave the Lions a C for drafting Arnold. 🤷
A reminder that none of these grades matter.
April 26th, 2024 at 12:37 PM ^
I wish these pundits were held accountable for their predictions/grades. As I noted pre-draft about the JJ hype, Ryan Leaf went 2nd overall, Tom Brady in the 6th round.
April 26th, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
The NBA doesnt give college volume shooters a huge bump in its draft. Its interesting that the NFL is coveting these players from the chuck and duck offenses. LSU WRs, USC and LSU QBs. Maybe its time to look at this another way and see if efficiency isnt the number one factor not "This guy scored an 80 yard passing play vs Western Kentucky". Im sure there was a lot more flash in Tom Bradys draft.
April 26th, 2024 at 12:57 PM ^
Never threw for 3000. Damn that nine yards he failed to pick up ( he had 2991).
If he was good enough to get that extra 9 yards, we could have won more games!
Wait, whut???
April 26th, 2024 at 12:59 PM ^
Not saying anything here than most everyone else hasn't already said, but I think JJ ended up in the best possible spot he could've ended up in with teams that were clearly looking for a QB. He's walking into a situation where he gets to throw to the best receiver in the league, has a really good TE, a really good RB to lean on, and what sounds like at least a decent to good OL. I imagine he'll still have some rookie QB growing pains, but he's been set up for success.
Jadyn Daniels and especially Drake Maye are walking into barren wastelands with their respective teams. They've got no reliable help (currently) around them. Caleb Williams does have some help around him, and picking up Odunze was a smart move with that ninth pick, but they are still very much a work in progress. I don't recall their OL being all that good so Williams could be running for his life quite a bit.
Only other team that would've intrigued me for JJ is going to Denver, solely because I'm curious what Sean Payton could've molded him into. If he could've made him into his next Drew Brees, but I'd also feel bad that JJ would be walking into a really lean situation with Denver for the next few years as they get out from under Russell Wilson's cap hit, and then they still have to contend with Pat Mahomes for the next decade at least.
This is only tangentially related (QB's), but: There was recent quote in a Feldman article from a coach along the lines of "every PAC QB seemed to be throwing to people that were 5-10 yards wide open."
I'm no QB guru, really didn't watch much of the PAC, and know this is a a classic stereotype of the conference...nevertheless, I wonder about the talent that was being thrown against. Dane Brugler gives 27 BIG defensive players a draftable grade vs. 14 PAC players. PFF's projected top 10 by defensive position for next year includes 17 BIG and 3 PAC players, so it's not like there were several big-time players taking another year of eligibility, either.
I don't think JJ's obviously better than the other guys, but a lotta QB's will look good against analogues to last year's Purdue/MSU teams.
This is why coaches like Lincoln Riley have such a shiny W-L record - they play most games against tomato cans that simply cannot athlete like OK, USC, OSU, Bama, et all... Buy a little time for Caleb Williams (or Baker Mayfield, or <insert name here>) and his WR's will eventually get open.
That doesn't happen against peer teams. Check Riley's record against playoff opponents. Check his QB's records against peer opponents. Not 'P5' opposition, which includes the likes of MSU, NW, ISU, ASU, GT, etc... Check it against athletic peer teams.
It's not good... Go back and watch the USC-ND game from last year. You'll see exactly what Chicago just drafted.
I'd upvote this, but I'm not sure how (or if I'm even allowed to yet?) :).
But yeah, although there are definite limits to transitive property types of assessments, I was thinking about how ND demolished USC. I'm very interested to see how the new teams do next year. We'll see how things progress over the summer, but I'm not immediately worried about the USC game next year. The squad I'm really curious about is Oregon. The advanced summary stats (FEI, S/P+) say that team was Georgia/Michigan/OSU good last year: a step above Alabama, Texas, Penn State, etc. I can't quite get there (I think they will be more beatable than Texas or OSU next year), although I admit that I only watched the two games they lost.
I can't even understand this 'D' rating. "The low ceiling shows up all over his tape." What low ceiling? The kid won 27 of 28 starts in college and should have won the one he lost.
wellthatsjustlikeyouropinionman.gif
April 26th, 2024 at 10:23 PM ^
And USA Today sucks as bad as it did when their big ugly boxes showed up in cities in the early eighties.