OUR WATCH HAS ENDED

I fired off an unusual Sunday post because I was sick of updating and updating and updating a post and thought it would be obsolete by Monday. It was. Roddy Gayle Jr is in. Sam Walters is in. Lorenzo Cason is in. Vlad Goldin… well, he should be in sooner rather than later.

Assuming Goldin, this is as of this moment a basketball team with zero open scholarship slots. To go from "Will Tschetter, I guess?" to this in a couple of weeks is the most whirlwind roster makeover in the history of Michigan athletics.

BUT ADMISSIONS?

Never say never in this department but they've officially announced Gayle and Jones. They briefly announced Donaldson before yoinking that back so I assume that he's on the verge. Goldin should be a grad transfer, Wolf was at Yale, and Walters had just one year at Alabama. My assumption is that after the prior debacles, Dusty May wasn't going to let anyone announce until their transcript got checked out. We'll see about the validity of that assumption.

ARE WE DONE?

Probably. Anyone who comes in at this point would either have to be cool with a year of apprenticeship or tantalizing enough to take despite a potentially negative knock-on effect for guys projected to be in the rotation—primarily Will Tschetter and Nimari Burnett.

Two of the obvious take options aren't happening. St Mary's SG Aidan Mahaney visited Creighton, has a couple more visits set up, and is picking between three non-M schools for his final one. Meanwhile, FAU SG Johnell Davis is seemingly between Kentucky and Arkansas.

I still think Oakland F Trey Townsend isn't happening, either, but he's apparently done with visits; Michigan is one of three schools that got one. Ohio State and Arizona are the others. Tony Paul points out that OSU just picked up former teammate Micah Parrish.

The other two guys worth the swing are Khani Rooths and Liam McNeeley, two top 50 recruits who could play the 3 or 4. I am still in 1% mode when it comes to McNeeley. Rooths is more plausible but the "I am 100% open" tweet is a bit of a downer, and Michigan's depth chart is suddenly jammed.

I mean, sure, if either of those guys wants in you take them, offer Jace Howard a PWO spot, and figure it out later. But Michigan just went from the place you'll definitely play a ton to a place where you're in a war for minutes. I think this is it.

So!

[After THE JUMP: what you've won]

ROSTER

Projected starters in bold. Important rotation players in italics.

PG: Tre Donaldson (Jr), Durral Brooks (Fr), Lorenzo Cason (Fr)
SG: Roddy Gayle (Jr), George Washington III (So), Justin Pippen (Fr)
SF: Rubin Jones (Sr*), Nimari Burnett (Jr*), Jace Howard (Sr*)
PF: Sam Walters (So), Will Tschetter (Jr)
C: Vlad Goldin(Sr*), Danny Wolf (Jr)

I project that one of the four underclassman guards gets ~10 MPG but I couldn't tell you who.

As far as usage goes, my money is on Gayle and Goldin being the two starters who get significantly above 20. Donaldson should be around 20, with Jones and Walters rounding it out.

HOW GOOD IS THIS?

Relative to where Michigan stood two weeks ago it's incredible. The roster above is not only full, it looks like something you might see at an established, good program five years into a coach's tenure. The roster is:

• OLD. The projected nine-man rotation has two underclassmen in it—Walters and whichever G steps up. The two seniors are super seniors.
• BALANCED. The aforementioned super-seniors are the only guys in the rotation who will be out of eligibility next year. There are three seniors, five juniors, two sophomores, and three freshmen. Portal era and all that, but there's a solid chance this team goes into next year even older.
• PROVEN. Donaldson, Gayle, Jones, and Goldin have all been major pieces for top 50 Kenpom teams. The two up-transfers projected to start are a 7'2" center who was the most efficient back-to-the-basket player in college basketball last year and a 6'5" defensive menace—these are not the kind of up-transfers who you worry about falling flat at a higher level.
• FLEXIBLE. Michigan has three guys in the starting lineup who ran the point for their teams a year ago. They have a 1-2 center punch that rivals the Wagner/Teske year. Rubin Jones can check just about anyone. The chance Michigan gets forced into a lineup where the parts don't fit together is relatively low.

Bart Torvik's projections are a little wonky—Goldin at 77% of minutes and Wolf at 69% isn't going to happen—but provide a reasonable baseline expectation. That expectation: 22nd nationally assuming Goldin commits. If Michigan was returning this roster and adding one or two guys, a bid would be a "slam dunk," as the kids say.

The problem is that the roster was "Will Tschetter, I guess," as of two weeks ago and teams assembled largely from the portal seem to be less than the sum of their parts. In February, 247's Isaac Trotter noted that the portal kings weren't that good at doing basketball:

Ten notable teams throughout college basketball filled their respective rosters with seven or more transfers from the 2023 cycle. All eight of the high-major teams on that list are on pace to miss the NCAA tournament.

NC State did make it in but required a miracle run through the ACC tournament to do so. (Yes, then they hilariously donked Duke en route to the Final Four.) It's also worth noting that St John's got hot at the end of the year and barely missed; they ended up #21 in Kenpom. They probably make it in if they don't inexplicably lose to 8-24 Michigan at the beginning of the year in a game where it looked like none of the St John's players had ever met before.

This is our concern, dude. May built his FAU program on continuity that is unheard of in the modern game; he will not have that this year.

POTENTIAL ISSUES

As constituted there are a few different things that could trip Michigan up other than having to wear nametags until conference play.

High guard turnover rates. Donaldson had a 20 TO rate; Gayle was at 19; Jones was at 18. Burnett had an 18 as well. You can live with one shot creator at that level; three is rough. Then again, the three transfers were primary creators for their teams; at Michigan they'll share that burden.

A power forward spot that does nothing but score. Will Tschetter and Sam Walters were both crazy efficient last year; they got 40 and 30 percent of their teams' minutes, respectively. Both guys were defensive liabilities last year, and extremely foul prone. Part of Tschetter's problem was playing a significant number of minutes at center; presumably that won't repeat with Goldin and Wolf on the roster.

Walters has some upside here because he is crazy long and doesn't have to be the quickest guy to start making himself a defensive pest. With Tschetter it's mostly about mitigation.

Frontcourt depth. Right now there are four guys for two spots and the possibility that Burnett or Jones could reasonably check a four. That's fine. One injury to a guy taller than 6'5" and things get iffy.

Gayle three pointers. Gayle was playing through a wrist injury a year ago, which may explain his 3P% falling off a cliff. On the other hand he continued to knock down free throws at an 83% clip.

One guy being a ~30% three point shooter isn't going to kill Michigan when it looks like there will be at least three plus shooters on the floor at all times, but if Gayle can get up to 35% that changes how teams have to defend him.

WELL?

Six seed?