[Bill Rapai]

Hockey Exit: Frank Nazar, Gavin Brindley, Dylan Duke Comment Count

Peter South April 30th, 2024 at 1:39 PM

As the college hockey season comes to an end, we bid adieu to a number of key players on the Michigan team. Some players are moving on to occupations that they got a degree in college for, while many others will be giving professional hockey a shot. Some of these are players exhausting eligibility and were forgone conclusions to depart, including goaltender Jacob Barczewski, defenseman Marshall Warren, forward Chase Pletzke, and practice goalie Andrew Albano, all of whom completed their 5th year of eligibility. 

But there's also the bucket of star players who are signing prematurely with the NHL teams who hold their draft rights. Michigan is no stranger to these sorts of losses and this year we've got three of them to cover. Like Alex did in past years, lumping them together in one combined the post is the best way to break it down and that's what we will be doing today. Three impact forwards recently signed NHL Entry level contracts and have moved on to the organizations who drafted them, with a rundown of each below: 

 

Exit: Frank Nazar III

Sophomore Frank Nazar III was a 1st round draft pick (13th overall) in 2022 by the Chicago Blackhawks. The Mount Clemens native came to the Wolverines via the US NTDP Program in Plymouth as part of the 2022 recruiting class. Nazar's profile was built around the promise of his speed, skill, and offensive aptitude, but it took a while for us to see it unleashed due to injury. His freshman season last year was hampered by offseason surgery, as Nazar was unable to play his first game of the season until February 10th. He finished that season with only 13 games played and didn't feel like we ever got a true glimpse of what Nazar could be. 

This season, as a sophomore, Nazar was finally healthy and able to play in all 41 games for the Wolverines. He centered the 2nd line, where it was not uncommon for him to be lined up against the opposition’s top line on a nightly basis. Nazar was one of the best in the nation in the faceoff circle, winning 54.7% of faceoffs he took, leading to heavy deployment. Night in and night out he was the most consistent 200 foot forward for Michigan as he notched 17 goals and 24 assists for 41 points in 41 games. Of those 41 points, one towered above the rest, his sensational between-the-legs pass to Gavin Brindley for his goal 12 seconds after the Wolverines took the lead in the Regional Final against MSU: 

His Pro Hockey Potential: Frank Nazar III has already begun his NHL career, signing with the Blackhawks on April 14th and scoring his first NHL goal 10:05 into the first period on a breakaway. As sensational as this was for him, don’t expect him to start putting up superstar offensive numbers. What the Blackhawks are getting more of a two-way player than an offensive dynamo, one who has a high hockey IQ, quick feet, and a strong stick which will allow him to be in good defensive position and the ability to use those assets to transition the puck up ice into scoring opportunities. As he develops, look for Nazar III to be the Blackhawks shutdown center who will face the opposition’s top line every night, a contrast to Connor Bedard's offensive prowess. He should also be slotted on the top PK unit and also get time on the 2nd PP unit.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Brindley, Duke, and bigger picture thoughts]

 

[David Wilcomes]

Exit: Gavin Brindley

Sophomore Gavin Brindley was a 2nd round draft pick (34th overall) by Columbus in 2023, the 2nd player selected from the Wolverines by the (Maize &) Blue Jackets after they tabbed Adam Fantilli in the 1st round (3rd overall). Despite being selected as high as he was in the draft, there were numerous detractors who attributed Brindley’s success to riding the coattails of Fantilli, where he played most of the 2022-23 season. Indeed, it was after Brindley was paired with Fantilli that his play took off as a freshman, so the diminuitive forward still had much to prove when he returned to Michigan as a sophomore this season. 

After the 2023-24 season began, Brindley quickly showed the speed, skill, and hockey IQ to drive the top line of the Wolverines, something that he'd do all year. Brindley didn’t just show that he could distribute the puck to collect apples, he also showed a quick, accurate release which resulted in him more than doubling his goal scoring from the previous season (from 12 to 25). He also accomplished this while taking slightly fewer shots than last season, which allowed him to finish the season with a 20.5% shooting percentage (up from 9.4% in his freshman season). Brindley’s offensive prowess was also on full display when Michigan was on the powerplay, as he was a key element in leading the Wolverines to the best powerplay in the nation at 33.6%. Further cementing his abilities as an all-around player, Brindley played a role on Michigan's penalty kill throughout the season. 

His Pro Hockey Potential: Gavin Brindley made his NHL debut on April 16th in Columbus against Carolina, where he logged 12:20 of time on ice. The Blue Jackets' organization is in a state of flux as of this writing, the team yet to hire a new GM and there is uncertainty on who the coach will be next season as well. Thus, it's a bit up in the air how Brindley will be used moving forward, whether he'll spend time in the AHL next season or whether he'll be a consistent NHLer. Logic would say keeping him in the NHL and putting him back with Adam Fantilli and possibly a veteran like Johnny Gaudreau or Boone Jenner would make a lot of sense. Brindley has the ‘will & skill’ to play in the NHL, and if you’re familiar with Brayden Point with Tampa Bay, you can see many similarities between their type of play and body type. It goes without saying that if Brindley can enjoy the success Point has, it will be a great career for him.

 

[David Wilcomes]

Exit: Dylan Duke

Not to take anything away from Nazar and Brindley, but the player I think the Wolverines will miss the most next season will be Dylan Duke. Any time Michigan had a powerplay or even a regular shift where they had sustained offensive pressure and he was on the ice, you could always count on finding Duke battling in front of the net for position to either deflect a shot or play for the rebound, both of which he was extremely effective at. With 3 full seasons under his belt at Michigan, it was impressive to see the consistent improvement in Duke’s all-around game, both with and without the puck. 

After arriving in the 2021 recruiting class, Duke scored 54 goals during his three-year Michigan career. If you apply baseball type stats, those goals were probably scored on a total of 270 feet from the net – which means 5 feet per goal! His net front presence and ability to get his stick on the puck in close is probably what pushed Tampa to sign him now, but what really may have clinched the deal was seeing him play on the PK during the 2nd half of the season. His body and stick position were fantastic and his read and react ability to jump on short-handed scoring opportunities really made him stand out. After scoring 26 goals as a junior, in addition to his contributions on special teams and to team leadership, the Lightning could not pass up the opportunity to add Duke to their pro prospect pool officially. 

His Pro Hockey Potential: Duke’s three-year Entry Level Contract kicks in at the start of next season and he’ll be joining the Syracuse Crunch (AHL) for their final regular season and playoff games now. It will give him an opportunity to acclimate himself to Tampa’s systems and get a good taste of pro hockey. For Duke to end up playing for the Lightning next year, he has to continue his work on his skating. He has developed good speed, but his first 3 strides need a lot of work to get to NHL standards. Duke will also need to adjust his physical conditioning program so that he compete the way he plays in a schedule that plays twice as many games as he’s used to playing. It will take time, but his feel for the game around the net and his work ethic means he has a legitimate shot to carve out a supporting role in the NHL. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

What UM Has to Replace and Change

Losing players at the end of the season to graduation or early departure is a way of life in college hockey, but replacing three players from your top 6 forwards is a considerable challenge for the coaching staff. Returning players like Hughes, Schifsky and Moldenhauer will be expected to take on larger roles, in addition to the presence of recruits like Michael Hage and Matvei Gridin. The return of a healthy Jackson Hallum will definitely help too, as will the incoming transfers like Wisconsin's William Whitelaw. Here are some dimensions that coaches will be evaluating as they try to replace Brindley, Duke, and Nazar: 

Quality Minute Munchers: Brindley averaged almost 21 minutes of ice time per night with Nazar and Duke averaging just shy of 18 minutes. Replacing those minutes with players who will provide that same production will be a challenge. Players like T.J. Hughes, Josh Eernisse, Garret Schifsky, Jackson Hallum and Nick Moldenhauer will be offered that opportunity, but it will be interesting to see who if any of them can achieve that success.

Goals: Nazar, Brindley, and Duke scored a combined 68 goals for Michigan this year, which is slightly more than 40% of the 169 goals the Wolverines scored as a team. Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in hockey but Michigan feels decently set up to stomach this loss. Their returning production is okay, they have a reasonably strong crop of incoming freshmen forwards, and have already made some gains in the transfer portal. 

[Bill Rapai]

Offensive Strategy – Zone Entry: Nazar, Brindley, and Duke averaged over a combined 17 offensive zone entries per game, of which over 70% of those were carrying the puck into the zone. With this type of speed and skill level gone, does that result in a philosophical change in the way Michigan attacks the zone next season? Turnovers at the offensive blueline are dangerous as the transition opportunities could lead to goals against. The coaching staff will have to consider a more dump-and-chase based approach and we shall see if any adjustments to the team philosophy are made regarding this strategy.

On Ice Leadership: Players who wear letters on their sweaters lead in the room, the gym, during practice, and on the bench. On ice leaders are those who are willing take control of the play on the ice, both with an without the puck. They are willing to sacrifice their body to make a play and do whatever it takes to win a game. They play with their ‘hearts on their sleeve’ regardless of the time or score on the clock. Both Brindley and Duke showed this in abundance during their tenure at Michigan. In fact, it was thought by some that Duke would've been named captain next season had he chosen to return for his senior season. The void in leadership left behind by Duke and Brindley will be noticeable, with players like Rutger McGroarty and Jacob Truscott needing to take up the veteran responsibilities. 

Comments

WFNY_DP

April 30th, 2024 at 3:20 PM ^

I don't know that there are the right kind of minutes for Brindley in Columbus next year. Unless a new GM comes in and cleans house, there is already a pretty solid NHL top-9 in place:
Gaudreau--Fantilli--Laine
Marchenko--Voronkov--Chinakhov
Texier--Sillinger--Nylander

Putting Brindley on the fourth line will do nothing for his development. There are still several good players down in the AHL for Columbus (Cleveland is in the AHL playoffs at present).

The wild cards are: 

  • Laine. Does he come back (to Columbus? to hockey at all?) Does a new GM look to move him?
  • Four of those top-9 guys are RFAs. Do they all come back? Does a new GM look to trade any of them to free up space for other younger guys like Brindley?

It's clear getting him in the last game of the season was all about burning an ELC year for him, so in that regard maybe the org thinks he's NHL-ready sooner rather than later. But who "the org" is at this point is a giant question mark and there's no telling what a new GM might do.

ppudge

April 30th, 2024 at 5:07 PM ^

I’m more concerned about goalie next year.  I know we have the Ferris transfer coming in, but do we have any others?  We realistically need to have 3 goalies on the roster and at least a 2nd reliable one.

k1400

April 30th, 2024 at 10:43 PM ^

I feel exactly the same.  We've got puck skill returning, and incoming.  Lately that's not been a problem.  Need a top level goalie.  And consistency on D all year.  Speaking of.... Seamus Casey wasn't mentioned.  Does that mean he's for sure back next year?