Welcome to the Hotel California
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave (your house).
Governor Newsom just announced that the entire state is under a mandatory shelter in place order. Apparently that report showing that 58% of the state would be infected within 8 weeks made an impression.
Any news from our MGoCalifornian's? Do you have enough toilet paper?
Have to figure more states will be soon to follow.
Good post, SBayBlue, I retired last year and live in Dana Point and also support what you guys (including Gavin Newsom) are doing to fight this pandemic. Taking the more draconian measures earlier in a densely populated state like ours is smart, especially when compared to New York, which is a nightmare scenario in the making. But, with our mild weather, I’ve been biking around our beautiful area more than ever in recent weeks. I don’t know if it’s the recent rain or the greatly diminished traffic, but the sky is clearer now and everything is just gorgeous outdoors! We’ll get through this and come out stronger than before, because our priorities will have been adjusted for the better and for the future!
With all due respect, you need to know the infectious rate in terms of magnitude, say from 1000 to 10,000 to 100,000 to 1 million. How days many day interval does each of these milestones take?
I have a hard time with the thinking that up 50% of Californians will become infected. That's 20 million. At 1%, you'd get to 400,000. At 1% nationally, we'd get to 3.3 million. The CDC should call that good when this event ends. Then we've all done a our part in reducing the infection rate and flattening the curve.
Not many states use California as a model of how to run things. This should be no exception.
We have the best public university system in the country, the most technology and business startups and the biggest tech companies, the 5th largest economy in the world, the most tourism of any state, the most scenic locations, LA is the biggest manufacturer in the country, the most agriculture, and the state is a leader in many other measurable areas. Yes, we have plenty of warts (high taxes, homelessness, high cost of living, crappy infrastructure, air pollution), but which other state does better in so many areas?
I've lived in Michigan, Missouri, Georgia, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, besides California. Been to 46 of our 50 states. There isn't a better state in the union, in my opinion.
Packard, really? Have any sources you'd like to share to back up that comment, and what is your expertise in state governance? Or are you just parroting anti-California BS because that's what you hear all the time from your "news" sources? As a former California public sector administrator, I'm telling you you're wrong, ours is a very well run state compared to most, especially given the large size and diversity of our population and economy. California has run a large state budget surplus ever since 2012 and we're well positioned to ride out the pandemic, again, compared to most other states. The leadership demonstrated in last night's public address by Governor Newsom shows that we're also willing to take strict measures to contain the size of the outbreak, which in part can be attributed to the relatively slow ramp up of the spread of the virus in CA compared to the Metro NYC area, for example.
March 21st, 2020 at 11:00 AM ^
Packard, right now you are in the ignorance is bliss category, just like Mr. orange was when he said this was nothing. In six months we can look back and use hindsight. At that point, you’ll either admit you were wrong or like Mr. orange you’ll make up a new story.
NY Governor on complete shutdown: "If even one (1) life is saved, it will all have been worth it".
Does ANYONE agree with this? Because I'm pretty sure we could save more than 1 life per day in NY by banning (for example) travel by car after 9 pm permanently.
Rhetoric like this is not helpful.
March 21st, 2020 at 10:35 AM ^
A few days ago the New York governor refused to shut down New York. DeBlasio was begging him to shut it down in public after not getting any where in private. New York should’ve been shut down a week ago based on the data. Now the governor is trying to claim the highroad in this? That’s bullshit! He is responsible for the thousands of deaths that will occur in New York.
I have lived in LA since 2002. Mostly in Redondo/Hemosa Beaches, and the last couple of years on the West Side in Brentwood.
Dont' even get me started on Gavin Lose-some and his corrupt Liberal politics. He is part of a political syndicate that has largely controlled CA for many years. It includes the Brown family, the Pelosi family and Gettys. Look it up. He is connected.
Failed liberal policies have killed California. The homeless crisis is an epidemic and they are doing nothing to stop the cause of the problem. The state siphoned billions of tax payer dollars that were supposed to go to the homeless, and the phantom high speed railway to liberal causes such as free insurance and health care for illegals.
CA is a sanctuary state providing welcome arms to illegals, while preying on the legal CA middle-class with ultra high taxes, none of which benefit us. Its the 1 % and the lower classes illegals here, and that is what those in power want. Its a criminal racket.
Come visit us in LA -- Crime, Tents and illegals are everywhere. (btw, I am not saying illegals are criminals, many are here looking for a better life, but they should NOT be getting free benefits that US citizens are denied.)
We are almost out of water and TP...no stores have it here. None. At least traffic is OK now with everyone staying home :)
Wow, whole lot of factually devoid analysis here. I did look it up as you asked. Since 1967, Republicans have controlled the California Governorship 32 of the last 52 years (62% of the time). So tell us again how it's the Dems that control everything and it was all peachy keen during the other years.
Jerry Brown brought the state back from the depths of the Great Recession to build a $22B rainy fund. State economy grew to the 5th largest in the world, and he told both parties to take a hike on spending. Arnold threw school districts and cities under the bus through major cost slashing by cutting vehicle license fees, blowing a hole in the budget and creating the Great Wall of Debt. Dems had to come in and clean up the mess, as seems always.
Tent cities are everywhere, not just CA. There is plenty of money for the homeless, but you cant move them to another place without their consent (aka kidnapping) Also, look up Martin vs Boise. https://nlchp.org/supreme-court-martin-v-boise/ Your current appointed US Supreme Court refused to hear the case, therefore, it's illegal for the police to move the homeless. Whose fault is that? The liberals, or the conservative majority? As for illegals, I'm guessing you'll be the first one out in to the fields picking lettuce or cleaning houses?
I'm an independent btw.
CoverZero, wow, what a horrible hellscape you described! And yet you still live....in Brentwood? Ahhhhahahahahah! Here's a free tip: if you hate California so much, do the rest of us a big favor and move to Arizona!
They have a pretty detailed model in Cal. 58% is if nothing is done. I estimate under 50,000 total if the lockdown holds. Also lockdowns are done in a progression so as not to incite riots. First limits on events, bars, restaurants. Then shelter in place at the city level. Then counties. Then the state. It’s modeled and simulated for pandemic planning to chart the right path. Of course you have to have an administration that understands facts and data.
Also modeled is how proactive you need to lock down before you’ve missed the opportunity. Data suggests new cases per day will peak 10-14 days after a lock down. So the major metro areas in Cal locked down last Monday at midnight. NYC and the NY state only locked down today. I think we are looking at the difference between NY and Cal being similar to Italy and South Korea. Though I doubt cal/we will fare as well as S. Korea. Illinois also has a lock down. Michigan and Ohio we hope will soon.
Roughly: New cases/day in California were about 100 when we mostly shut down by Tuesday. 200/day yesterday. Based other data the peak might be 1000 per day but possibly less due to earlier measures. New cases per day in New York were about 3000 per day yesterday the day before the shut down. That is more than where Italy was at. So we might be looking at a peak of 30000/day in NY. Italy is only up to 5000 /day but still growing exponentially. Cuomo should be dragged out of office along with Mr Orange. (That is non partisan)
Remember reported cases are way under what is measured. By the time someone feels sick they’ve been infected for 7-14 days, they spent another day going through screening to get a test and it takes two more days for the test results. That’s a lot of time to infect more people. And 20% -50% might not get tested and are still running around. Once you have a lock down as long as people comply R0 goes to < 1 and it stops.