Week 4 B1G projected scores
Which projected scores surprise you?
We’ll start with the undercards:
Chattanooga @ Illinois (Thu)
- Vegas predicted score: off
- SP+ predicted score: Illinois 27-14
- I first thought I’d be surprised to see this game be this close because Illinois has looked somewhat almost okay; but Chattanooga is ranked #6 in SP+ among FCS, so maybe this one will be tight.
Central Michigan @ Penn St
- Vegas predicted score: Penn St 46-18
- SP+ predicted score: Penn St 41-14
- Perhaps Clifford ages less rapidly in this game than most others? These scores suggest a better performance by CMU against PSU than Auburn.
Indiana @ Cincinnati
- Vegas predicted score: Cincy 37-21
- SP+ predicted score: Cincy 38-15
- Indiana is 3-0, but SP+’s clear national leader for flukiness: beat Illinois w/ 31% post-game win expectancy, and WKU w/ 11%! Cincinnati rolls.
Miami @ Northwestern
- Vegas predicted score: Northwestern 28-21
- SP+ predicted score: Northwestern 28-25
- Northwestern always loses some awful non-conference game that makes the conference look bad (and makes Nebraska look even worse!). I wouldn’t expect NW to do it again, but this game looks way too scary close for the conference good.
Florida Atlantic @ Purdue
- Vegas predicted score: Purdue 41-21
- SP+ predicted score: Purdue 38-19
- Purdue needs a nice bounce-back game.
Iowa @ Rutgers
- Vegas predicted score: Iowa 21-13
- SP+ predicted score: Iowa 25-15
- Not sure ether team will score as much as these projections.
…and now for the headliners…
Minnesota @ Michigan St
- Vegas predicted score: Minnesota 27-24
- SP+ predicted score: Michigan St 26-26 (by two tenths of a point)
- The only game with a split winner (barely). A good opportunity for Minnesota to validate its run for a West Division title. In preseason analysis, I stated that MSU’s game last week was the first of a 6-game stretch that will define their season; they can’t afford to drop two in a row because they have Maryland, OSU, Wisconsin & Michigan in their next four games. Are they looking at a 2-4 stretch? …1-5? …0-6?
Wisconsin @ Ohio St
- Vegas predicted score: Ohio St 38-19
- SP+ predicted score: Ohio St 34-19
- As much as SP+ loves OSU’s offense, I’m surprised Vegas has higher regard.
Maryland @ Michigan
- Vegas predicted score: Michigan 41-24
- SP+ predicted score: Michigan 38-20
- Big Noon Woot! Preseason, I said this is one of three conference matchups with the greatest likelihood of being the B1G’s highest-scoring game of the season. Vegas likes 7 more total points than SP+. Perhaps both teams exceed projected scores in this one?
September 21st, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
Let’s keep the 50 point trend alive. 52-10 Meeeechigan.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
Michigan wins by 20+
Maryland sucks and while little Tua may be a decent ballplayer, it's not going to help them against Michigan.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:53 PM ^
I like Tua but he has a tendency to force things and throws picks in bunches. Particularly when they fall behind early. I think this game will get out of hand by halftime. Michigan cruises 52-8. (I predicted a shutout last week with a score of 66-0. Don’t let that fool you. I’m really bad at picking games)
September 21st, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
Badgers are about to pull an Ed Norton and curb stomp OSU. It will be a lot more pleasant to watch though.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
That scene messed me up man.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:41 PM ^
Maybe Mertz can finally tap into all that hype he had from his first game. Otherwise Wisconsin looks down and of course after they fall off of our schedule and onto ohio’s
September 22nd, 2022 at 8:09 AM ^
I read that and my antiquated mind immediately went to "I don't remember anyone getting curbstomped in The Honeymooners, and if anyone did it, it probably would've been Ralph."
Wow, I'm out of touch. And this is coming from someone who really liked American History X.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
OSU is gonna do a LOT more than that to Wisconsin methinks...
September 21st, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
But in retrospect, I would've expected OSU to do more against ND as well ...
September 21st, 2022 at 6:29 PM ^
With jsn back, they are back to firestorm on offense unfortunately.
September 22nd, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
JSN barely contributed vs. Toledo. Perhaps keeping him rested for B1G play.
September 22nd, 2022 at 8:11 AM ^
This is textbook OSU, pal. Looking rusty coming out of the gate, either barely winning a game they should clobber their opponent in or dropping it altogether. And then by mid-October all of their weaknesses just magically disappear and some even turn into outright strengths.
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
I'm looking for them to put up 50 on MSU
September 22nd, 2022 at 2:58 PM ^
They'll do at least that with their passing attack against that shitty MSU pass defense. And when I use the term shitty, I'm actually being kind to that sorry group. That MSU pass defense is a train wreck
September 21st, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
I like Rutger over the Hawkeyes (10 to 7). I think they will give them a run for their money.
The terps have a good offense but I think M defense holds them to two TDs.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:43 PM ^
While we don’t have the pass rush talent from last year this cession of the defense plays to one of tagovailoas weakness by giving multiple looks that change post snap I think he gets some yards but tosses 2 picks.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
We were pretty “elite pass rush or bust” last year, luckily we had someone as consistent as Hutchinson all the way until the Georgia game where they did a great job mitigating both our ends….this “no name” defense seems to be more solid top to bottom with the majority of last years contributors being a year more seasoned into the same system (thank you Jesus for John Harbaugh recommendations and the Ravens). I feel this unit is more disciplined and with quality depth, I don’t expect Talia to break off anything huge and will be contained as much as he can be, I do believe this defense is near elite.
Also, practicing 1v1’s with offense and defense, I’m sure JJ gives a good look to the defense in terms of his ability compared to Talia.
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
I agree we don't have the pass rushers like last year, but all the teams we played generally just got rid of the ball, threw it downfield to not take a sack.
September 22nd, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
Rutger shuts out Iowa 5-0 as the hawkeyes are saving their remaining 20 points on the season for us.
September 22nd, 2022 at 7:16 PM ^
I go over to the Iowa Rivals boards every once and awhile and if they lose to Rutgers - especially in a low scoring game - that board will be beyond meltdown.....and it could very well happen. Brian Ferentz has to be the most hated man in the state of Iowa right now
September 21st, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
MSU’s game last week was the first of a 6-game stretch that will define their season; they can’t afford to drop two in a row because they have Maryland, OSU, Wisconsin & Michigan in their next four games. Are they looking at a 2-4 stretch? …1-5? …0-6?
Totally agree with this. Now granted, it's always tough to win out west (we haven't since the '98 Rose Bowl, and I don't even know the last time we did in the regular season; if you don't count at Colorado in the mid-90s it's been at least 30 years). But Washington was at least on paper one of Sparty's better chances to pick up a win in that stretch, given their struggles last year. Minny and Wisconsin might be the next easiest games? Yeesh. I know the Terps have October MD and their defense working against them, but man Taulia has to be licking his chops thinking about what he can do to State's secondary. If they don't beat Minny, I think 1-5 could be a real possibility...
September 21st, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
Iowa-Rutgers could be 0-0 after 10 OT's.
Buckeyes will probably annihilate Bucky.
I think Minny will be Top 10 by end of the season. I expect them to win here, maybe a close one.
I hate playing September Maryland, much prefer November Maryland, but it's at home, JJ is on his way to the Heisman this year, so yeah, it'll be fun.
September 21st, 2022 at 10:08 PM ^
Iowa already has a 2-0 win in their history. Time for a 2-0 loss.
September 22nd, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
Minny will be interesting this weekend. Their schedule so far was easier then Michigan.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:31 PM ^
Iowa 4 - Rutgers 3
September 21st, 2022 at 6:16 PM ^
Respectfully, I think you’re way off. There’s more offense than you are giving them credit for.
My prediction is: 5-3 in eleven (11) OT’s…
September 21st, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
That would be a crazy safety. Loss of 98 yards.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:27 PM ^
OT 2 pt conversions after 4th OT period... so it would be a 2 pt conversion. Hmmm... that requires offense so I'm calling BS. Rutgers wins in that scenario.
September 21st, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^
What if Iowa forces a turnover and returns it for a "touchdown" on Rutgers' 11th OT 2-pt try?
September 21st, 2022 at 11:31 PM ^
Well, I didn't consider a defensive two-point conversion. Good point. I believe that is correct and it would be the most Iowa thing ever.
September 21st, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
I thought we had already learned to never bet on Minnesota.
I also hope that we win every conference game this year by the score 42-27.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^
How would Michigan give up 27 points to Iowa? They'd have to be up 42-6 and then start handing the ball to Iowa and escorting them toward the end zone.
How about they alternate between winning 42-2 and 42-7?
September 21st, 2022 at 10:10 PM ^
Even with an escort, they would get lost.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:00 PM ^
Minnesota @ MSU reminds me a decent bit of the Purdue @ MSU game in 2018.
- MSU was just a slightly above-average team that particular year, and was coming off a game where they got whooped pretty good, and one of their units looked particularly awful (Michigan 2018, where Brian Lewerke went 5 for 25 (!!!) for 66 yards).
- Purdue was the team everyone was talking up in the West, just coming off the demolition of OSU in West Lafayette.
- MSU was installed as a 2-point favorite, and most of the money flowed to Purdue as people were overly influenced by the previous week's games.
- MSU won by a couple scores.
I know I took MSU last week (oops), but I'm taking them again this week. I'm not on the Minnesota bandwagon just yet and I think both Minnesota & MSU could be teams that are (1) a bit above-average but also (2) not good enough to be exempt from "up-down theory" (Wojo on WDFN talked about this all the time, and it does seem like all the non-great/non-hideous NFL teams and a good chunk of middle-tier college teams ping-pong like this).
MSU being a home dog doesn't seem right to me here - in his first 5 seasons in MSP, PJ Fleck has never won a road game against a B1G East team that didn't finish 0-9 in conference that particular year. That's a pretty crazy stat. I think MSU to win is the value play here.
(and if Minnesota does win, that means MSU is going 0-9 in conference play. So even if I lose, I win)
September 21st, 2022 at 9:48 PM ^
Bovado has MSU as an underdog by 3 points!
Before the season, I created a post and predicted that MINN will win the west. However, I said that one of their losses will be to MSU on the road. This is not a good match up for MINN. Despite its problems with passing attacks, MSU is not bad again the run, especially if the RB is not a speedster. MINN has an excellent running game but that is going against the relative strength of MSU's defense.
As much as I hate it, I put some money on the little brother.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
Go Gophers! 31-17
September 21st, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
The winners..
Illinois covers
PSU over the Chips
Cincy hands the Hoosiers their first loss of the season
Miami over Northwestern
Purdue big over FAU
Rutgers over Iowa
Minny wins in EL
Badgers lose solidly in Columbus
Michigan .. 42-27
September 21st, 2022 at 6:30 PM ^
I'll take MSU in a squeaker, OSU by 3 scores, Michigan by 3 scores, and pain for anybody who watches Iowa-Rutgers
September 21st, 2022 at 6:32 PM ^
No way Iowa puts up 21
September 21st, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
…on offense
September 21st, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
Sure they can. This game has been lost to history a bit, but in 2018, Iowa scored 24 points against Penn State. A rather normal total. Except that it occurred in this fashion:
- 2 safeties, both on PSU punts --- one blocked punt through the end zone and one way-over-the-head snap through the end zone. Both safeties occurred in the first 17:00 of the game (!!!).
- 2 field goal drives, 47 yard and 15 yard drives. On the longer drive, Iowa had a 4th-and-goal at the PSU 4 and was going to go for it (!!!), but had a delay of game and then kicked the FG.
- 1 touchdown, scored when Iowa faked a field goal (!!!) and threw a touchdown. The pass went from the holder to a pass-eligible offensive lineman (!!!).
- 1 pick-six.
- 2 extra points.
That's 7 points from the defense, 6 from the offense (giving them credit for the FG drives here), 9 from the special teams and 2 as a gift from the opponent. 24 total!
September 21st, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
Various Iowa vs. Penn State games must account for like 70% of the safeties recorded in Big Ten play this millennium.
September 21st, 2022 at 9:24 PM ^
LOLOLOL …….. the 2017 Penn State vs Iowa game was 8-7 for basically the entire third quarter. Iowa actually had a touchdown (!), PSU had 2 field goals (the LONGEST of which was 21 yards!) and of course a safety.
Scoreagami is always a thing in those games.
September 21st, 2022 at 6:40 PM ^
Minny msu will be close for the first half. Msu will run away with it. I’ll say 31-14.
michigan 48-17
osu destroys wisky 38-10
September 21st, 2022 at 6:57 PM ^
I am genuinely excited to see what Fleck comes up with against Sparty. I see Minny winning by double digits for a “signature” win over a B1G East opponent. Row The Boat!!
September 21st, 2022 at 9:06 PM ^
Morgan is a fine QB and Ibrahim is obviously amazing. If Fleck wants to go strength vs strength, I think it may be brutal rock fight. If they pass early and often, I think Minn rolls.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:00 PM ^
I can't wait to see how our defense responds to an actual offense
Michigan wins 45 to 17
I may actually watch the O$U game just to evaluate them since they are playing a real team this week
September 21st, 2022 at 7:59 PM ^
OSU should sleep walk through their schedule, which sets us up nicely for a dominant performance. Ryan Day is John Cooper 2.0.
September 21st, 2022 at 7:06 PM ^
I trust the offense more than the defense at this point.
A mediocre offense would have had trouble executing at such a high level, even against subpar defenses, so I'm convinced this offense is somewhere between very good and legendary. I think Michigan threatens 35+ in pretty much every game this season.
I think our defense is still an unknown. They're at least okay, but it's hard to know beyond that given the offenses they've played. If they stifle Maryland's offense, I think that's some real data.
I'll guess our defense has a couple weaknesses exploited on Saturday but largely takes care of business. 48-21 Michigan.