bighouseinmate

April 29th, 2024 at 10:14 AM ^

The addition of Goldin to next years team automatically upgrades the floor from .500 b1g/potential NCAA bubble team to a 7th to 11th seed and top five/six b1g team. If the team gels very well they’ll be a top-25 team by season’s end.

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5003

bighouseinmate

April 30th, 2024 at 11:46 AM ^

I think the floor is high even with the nearly complete turnover of roster and coach in part because of the coach’s success thus far in fairly quick turnarounds, and in part because the players weren’t just merely deep bench pieces on their previous teams but most were starters or the first or second off the bench, meaning they all have played significant minutes on either p5 or high major teams. Yes, the primary offensive and defensive philosophies will be new but they’ve all likely played within those philosophies at times as change ups on their previous teams. The transition will have some bumps, but they should be much lower than if the roster was guys who hadn’t played much college basketball previously. That’s my take, anyways, even if it does seem overly optimistic.

Joined: 12/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5003

bronxblue

April 29th, 2024 at 11:21 AM ^

I've been accused numerous times of being way too optimistic abut UM sports generally and, weirdly, MBB in particular, to the point that I was rather graphically described as performing sexual acts to multiple individuals at the same time due to my zealotry, and even I think 1 7/8 seed might be a bit too high in year 1.  It's not that these guys aren't talented (they are) but they are mostly players in a new system and with relatively limited experience playing together even with an offseason to prepare.  

There will be hiccups, missteps, guys in the wrong place at the wrong time or not being on the same page.  And a lot of them are up-transferring to one extent or another.  Yes, Donaldson, Gayle, and Walters are coming from similar programs but Goldin, Wolf, and Jones are going to run into a different level of competition than they're used to, while Pippen, Brooks, and Cason are all HS kids making that transition to college ball.  There are 5 guys (if you count GW III) on this roster who've played some level of P5 basketball, and even that's got caveats about playing time and effectiveness.  That's actually worse than last season's roster on paper, which is sort of insane to think about.  

They'll likely show growth during the year and I like the pieces they have, but I've contended that .500 in conference and on the bubble is the floor for this team, and being on the bubble would be the expectation.  This year the conference was really down so .500 gets you in the 5-6 range but next year there are 4 new teams in the conference and, in theory, they'll mostly be solid teams.  But a 7/8 seed this year were teams like Texas, Wazzou, FAU, etc.  Not great teams but ones that had coherent approaches with more experienced (at this level) rosters.  Thats what "scares" me about this team - they're are a lot of unknowns and even the floor requires them to really hit on a bunch of these transfers and signings in a way that would be great if they happened but aren't statistically a given.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172093

Perkis-Size Me

April 29th, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^

"If the team gels"

That's it. That's the kicker right there, and the big massive question mark that we won't know for some time. 

No one will argue that on paper, this is a pretty good team now. They're not going to win the Big Ten, but they've got some players for sure. The issue is that almost none of them have played together (not the guys who will be starting or be important rotation pieces anyway) and they've got bad history going against them when it comes to teams that have built through the portal. I think NC State was one of two teams last year that built mostly through the portal and made the tournament, and Final Four run aside, they barely made it in as a 17-14 team to begin with. 

Granted, Dusty built this roster through the portal out of sheer necessity, so he gets a pass for that this season. But these guys still have to learn how to play together, and do it in a relatively short amount of time. I think they have the talent to make the tournament, but I hold no expectations about them actually making the tournament. 

Joined: 11/30/2011

MGoPoints: 106310

UgLi Eric

April 29th, 2024 at 1:57 PM ^

"They're not going to win the Big Ten"

Honestly, they could. Purdue won't be as strong, though likely still a good team. FAU might have been close to a top big ten team last year and Dusty is setting his sights on exactly that goal, big ten championship, final four team, in year one. That's probably coach talk, but it could be done. Maybe Dusty is as good of a roster builder and keeper as advertised, his coaching staff seems experienced and believes in him. I would push pause on any projections, but also why say what we cannot do? Football recently surprised me....

Joined: 10/09/2016

MGoPoints: 14277

mGrowOld

April 29th, 2024 at 10:19 AM ^

Amazing what a change from the last days of Juwan.  From the basement of the B1G with a roster of mismatched parts to........THIS.

My optimism for the men's BBall team is extremely high right now.  We have an excellent coach, and excellent staff and now an close-to excellent roster.

Joined: 10/04/2010

MGoPoints: 213985

UMfan21

April 29th, 2024 at 10:24 AM ^

It's one of the biggest reasons to change coaches when things get "stale".  A new coach injects optimism and causes a temporary spike in commits.  We even saw it when Juwan was hired.  The trick is to have success this year and keep that optimism going...

I continue to be nervous about our NIL situation.  Basketball seems to have always had a culture about guys wanting $$ and if we are not competitive in that area, then our coaching won't matter we will always be at a disadvantage (more than football or hockey)

Joined: 09/28/2009

MGoPoints: 51255

michgoblue

April 29th, 2024 at 10:37 AM ^

I think that NIL money is a much bigger factor for one and done type players. Those guys seem to just chase the largest bag, knowing that they are only making a one year pitstop. For players who plan to be in school for 3+ years, while NIL definitely factors in, as long as Michigan has even an average and IL program, we should be fine in terms of competing for those recruits. As we’ve seen over the past couple of years in college basketball, it’s far better to build a program primarily with guys who will stick around for three or four years. With a rotating cast of 1 and done players.  So, while we definitely need to improve our NL, I’m not as worried about it as some are.

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: 32198

DennisFranklinDaMan

April 29th, 2024 at 10:54 AM ^

I personally think people need to stop worrying — indeed, stop even talking — about NIL. For as long as I've been a Michigan fan (and it's well over 50 years now), our fan base has convinced ourselves that for one reason or another we simply can't compete. Our facilities are sub-par, and we won't be able to recruit. Our academic/admission standards are too high and we won't be able to recruit. Other teams cheat by paying their players, and we won't be able to recruit. Our coaches don't emphasize advanced passing games and flashy stats, so we won't be able to recruit.

And every time a new issue comes up, we insist that previous problems weren't serious, "but this one ...".

And yet, somehow, despite all odds, we manage to compete just fine, at a level (for major revenue-producing sports, at least) unlike any other university in the country.

Evidence suggests our athletic department knows what it's doing, and is sufficiently funded. Why not just let them do their jobs and focus on the games? I'm not saying not to be critical — I think, unfortunately, the criticism directed at Juwan's performance was justified — but this constant insistence that for some reason or another we're unable to compete verges on the hysterical. 

Joined: 01/23/2021

MGoPoints: 14547

Zoltanrules

April 29th, 2024 at 10:47 AM ^

Great get!  Coach May seems to be the best of Coach Beilein and Deion Sanders. Even if he stops here, which he won't, Coach May has done a terrific job in a short amount of time. The Maize Rage should be something with this new influx of offensive and defensive talent and exciting style of basketball, not seen at Crisler in two years.

Joined: 08/23/2009

MGoPoints: 21628