MBB: VA at -3.5...?
Does VA -3.5 seem a little light to anyone else? I hate betting against my team, but that sounds like easy money to me right now. Hopefully it wouldn't be later in the season when our point guard play gels.
Sorry to interrupt the football revelry. Please carry on. Louder.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
I was thinking the same thing when I saw it at -3 this morning. With our lack of defense I have pretty low expectations for this years team!
November 29th, 2022 at 3:34 PM ^
seems way low to me, I agree
November 29th, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^
Easy money right there.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:39 PM ^
The dude who bet $753K on the OSU ML at -315 or whatever thinks that is a terrible bet.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^
Maybe I can get some good crypto advice from that guy.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
Maybe the mystery OSU bettor was SBF.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:42 PM ^
I’ve learned something in my gambling days and it rings true to this day. If the line looks too good to be true, it usually is. Vegas doesn’t give discounts
November 29th, 2022 at 3:54 PM ^
Never heard truer advice than this!
November 29th, 2022 at 10:20 PM ^
That’s pretty good advice man….
November 29th, 2022 at 3:44 PM ^
Yeah, that's surprising. Virginia is really good. And the way we have looked the last three games...ugh. This could ugly in a hurry.
Also...what the hell with the 9:30 start time? Stupid!
November 29th, 2022 at 5:45 PM ^
As a CA resident I'm happy about the start time.
But this also means we're the headlining game for today, I think. ESPN likes the best games to be in the 9 and 930 time slots for this event.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
Not going to be pretty but at least it's on late so I will miss most of it.
November 29th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
Do we have to watch?
November 29th, 2022 at 3:53 PM ^
Not only that, but im seeing michigan is the public favorite by a slight margin. I'm really confused
November 29th, 2022 at 3:57 PM ^
Michigan is not going to completely suck this year, they will have some moments. This is their first real game of consequence at home and they will play at a high level. I don't expect them to win the game but I think it will be close.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:13 PM ^
Yeah, they've scuttled a bit as we should probably expect given they've turned over 4/5 of their starting lineup again but they're not as bad as some people assume they are. And guys like KenPom (67-62) have it close while ESPN's win projection is "only" 67-32 UVa (the same they have for UW vs. Wake). I think UVa wins this game but it's probably not a blowout because that's not really UVa's style and I assume UM will show up against a big opponent at home.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
The Dukes are trying to corner the market.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:05 PM ^
I had no idea UVA was #3. Crisler isn't a huge homecourt advantage, so I wonder what the sportsbooks know.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:18 PM ^
They're a weird #3 to me. There really hasn't been a standout team this year yet; former #1 UNC just lost twice and dropped like a stone in KenPom. Kentucky has lost twice. Gonzaga has lost twice. They're an experienced, solid team but they started the year #18 and feels like #3 is partially because the teams ahead of them all lost not necessarily because they set the world on fire.
November 29th, 2022 at 5:49 PM ^
Torvik has UVA as the #13 team in the country and since it's in Ann Arbor, has UVA only a 2.8 point favorite.
Kenpom is a bit higher on UVA.
The books tend to very closely track the predictive metrics unless there's a major injury or something.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:06 PM ^
The saying is that Vegas always knows something… these weird lines that are super obvious and seem like easy free money are often traps for the public
November 29th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
I hate betting against us but that’s easy money. And if I’m wrong then we’ve just beaten the #3 team so I’m happy. Of course if we lose by 3 or less then it would be a double whammy. So now I’ve just jinxed myself.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
betting against your team..... kinda feels dirty, like you're paying for a win.
I never win when I bet, so maybe I should start betting against us all the time.......
November 29th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
Why is paying for a win dirty? I bet against Michigan bball 4-5 times last season against Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, etc. The wins that started to be must-wins for tourney chances. Sure enough we won most of them and the $10-20 I lost (I know, that's chump change and not even real money to actual gamblers and those truly making profits) each time felt great; for me, missing the tourney was going to be sooo painful. I might as well have made a few bucks if we did. Sure enough I bought joy by getting our guys to the dance...so to speak! No dirty feeling whatsoever.
November 29th, 2022 at 4:14 PM ^
Um...this seems...somewhat light indeed. Does Vegas know something we don't? Is Corum playing or something? ;-)
November 29th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
I don't know all the ins and outs, but aren't odds these days usually figured out by an algorithm doing the math on all the money in and calculating the optimal quantitative financial outcome for the bookie regardless of outcome of the game?
So perhaps the odds are what they are to encourage more Virginia money to come in. It's quite possible there's too much money on Michigan? Maybe it's because of the football win creating a lot of enthusiasm among Michigan fans.
Degenerate gamblers and gambling experts, feel free to correct me.
November 29th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
I don't know, I'm skeptical of this team but for some reason I feel like they pull it off tonight. Should have fresh legs. I'm predicting a great shooting night, plus HD will probably play well against VA considering he grew up in the MD area. Just a gut feeling...
November 29th, 2022 at 5:39 PM ^
You're not wrong in HD finding a way to have a grudge. I think he can probably muster one up on just about anyone.
November 29th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
I agree. I would’ve thought the line would be closer to 13. There is nothing I’ve seen from Michigan this year that shows me that they should be in this game. But we’ll see.
November 29th, 2022 at 5:41 PM ^
If the spread looks too good to be true, go ahead and bet the company payroll on it
November 29th, 2022 at 5:47 PM ^
Guys, it’s a typo. The line is -35.
All joking aside Im watching the game because WTF is up with that line?
Michigan football is headed to the Big Ten championship. USA beat Iran and advances. I can take a loss in basketball if needed.
Let’s go!!!!!!!
November 29th, 2022 at 6:01 PM ^
Not a betting man, but if I was as much as it pains me I'd bet the house on Virginia. Literally the way the basketball team has played this year against far lesser opponents I can't see them staying within 10 points in this game.
November 29th, 2022 at 7:19 PM ^
The way the crushed illinois yes, but Vegas could also be baiting you to think that.
November 29th, 2022 at 11:21 PM ^
Well….they know
November 30th, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
This didn't age well....