CFB Nerds Michigan-PSU Prediction
Here's the link to the video.
Some notes:
- Their model predicts a Michigan win
- They pick PSU because they think Michigan's injuries could very much hurt offensive production
- They said their predictions would be much more in-line with a Michigan win if the injuries don't hamper Michigan as much and offensive production thus falls in line with previous games
- They agree with Drain that PSU has Dotson and little else; they seem to like the Michigan pass D
- Their concern for Michigan is on offense
My personal view is that they are overweighting the actual impact of injuries. Michigan sat quite a few guys against a clearly overmatched opponent due to an abundance of caution. The game will be close, but Michigan has the horses to handle things on offense and keep Dotson from destroying things on the other side of the ball.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
I'm not sure that the weather tomorrow is going to really impact what Penn State plans to do on offense anyway. They haven't proved they can run the ball even against bad teams and with perfect weather. They can't run the ball even if they want to, so by default they're going to have to throw.
The real question is how much the weather will affect that.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
Maize or blue pants? That’s really the only thing that matters.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
the Nerds are predicting Maize.....
based upon multi-variant statistical analysis
November 12th, 2021 at 12:51 PM ^
I really want the maize pants (no chance we wear blue since it would blend into Penn State's uni's too much). But I feel like Harbaugh is probably traumatized from the 2 times we've worn the maize pants (against Penn State in 2017 & Sparty this year) so we'll likely never see them again until maybe an easy opponent on the road just to get our juju back?
Bet your money on the all whites, basically.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:18 PM ^
How is this decided? HC decision? Player vote?
November 12th, 2021 at 1:22 PM ^
Maize pants gives more contrast with the PSU unis for the passing game. White or blue blend in too much.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:38 PM ^
pants have zero bearing on a passing game. You aren't looking at them. Helmets and jerseys are the only things that matter so there is plenty of contrast.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
I enjoy their content, but I have one flaw with their model: it doesn't include special teams.
If I have this correct, their model is basically predicated on how your offense and defense do against an opponent relative to that opponent's average. For example, if an opponent usually gives up 120 yards rushing a game and you got 150, you're a good rushing offense. In addition, they base performance on yards per play.
I like their O/D reasoning well enough, but field position created by special teams plays a huge role. Michigan is #4 in FEI's net field position rankings (#7 OFP, #5 DFP), while PSU is #103 (#122 OFP, #75 DFP).
Lastly, we aren't as injured as they believe.
November 13th, 2021 at 2:45 AM ^
I like those guys, but frankly I wish they talked less about the model.
The model might be decent over the course of a season, especially if you're somebody looking for some sort of sportsbook advantage in the long haul, but it never feels like a super interesting way to approach an individual matchup to me.
It's a shame because I do like the guys.
November 12th, 2021 at 12:57 PM ^
i dont know how you "know" we sat guys last week. We also lost 2-3 of them during the Indiana game. I wouldnt feel confident if All, Anthony, Corum, Henning are out for this game. All and Schoonmaker can be redzone targets now that we remembered to use big bodies in the redzone and not just run into walls. Anthony is a great trusted presence now for our QBs and we know Corum's impact. I want henning just because he's been stable on punt returns more recently and the further down the depth chart we go on punt returns, the closer you are to a disaster play or 2... whether its letting punts bounce and go for 75 yards (minimal) or fumbling (maximal).
We usually lose guys in time for osu, so if a couple come back this week and we can get healthy against MD, then maybe we break that cycle
November 12th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
Henning looked fine in a recent Instagram post walking totally normal.
Last week him and Anthony walked off the field normal together
November 12th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
That's all it really takes. Pressure and time. That, and a big damn poster.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
Take away Dotson and win the game. Easy.
November 12th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Man, if we only had Lamar Latrelle slinging the ball at QB - bet those CFB Nerds would pick us in a landslide...
November 12th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
This is a game under Harbaugh we should win but rarely do!
November 12th, 2021 at 5:23 PM ^
These guys predicted a Michigan win against MSU.
So...you know....big fucking deal that they pick Penn State.
November 12th, 2021 at 9:22 PM ^
Michigan is 14 points better. Home crowd and B1,G officiating will keep the margin to 4 or less though.
November 13th, 2021 at 2:41 AM ^
It's a chaos season, and Michigan somehow still hasn't totally established their offensive identity, but I do not think Penn State is good, I think Michigan wins in a game that's not particularly close.