WTKA Roundtable 6/23/2022: The Lithuanian Boxer from 1950
Things discussed:
- Re: Bakich, Sam says Seth was right, Seth says Seth was wrong, or at least needs to amend his comments on summer baseball: Semi-Pro ball is a big deal to the baseball world. Replacing a 100-year-old structure may be a good idea, but it's a very BIG idea and would take a massive risk of the kind that the Big Ten won't ever take.
- Baker: Just a Houstan™, but that's something we needed. Set shooter, fills a spot as a backup 2 or 3, was a top-40 recruit so if his hip heals okay he should be an alright defender of 3s. Was on a great offense so okay that he was only 10 min/game at Duke.
- Emoni Bates: The kind of guy Howard protects you from, because he's seen the circus and won't make the same mistake most coaches do. They just lost Frankie Collins to a down move because of a shitty parent. Not actually a good basketball player.
- Youssef: All in favor, good shooting stroke, has skill, can be a Franz lite. Can we win a Zoom recruitment?
- Dug: Best passer at Michigan since? Seth: Makes sense, since Howard probably saw he has two guys named Howard on the roster, and sorted the 247 rankings by best passer.
- Football recruiting: Do we panic? No. Do we worry? Yes. Sam's starting to believe Dante Moore is more likely to go to Oregon now. If you're chasing Michigan State you have a problem. Michigan's new tack sounds like a morality play and is going to blow up in their faces. Players have value to their institutions before they play: they have earned it.
- The players create themselves more than the coaches. Michigan has a good talent evaluation program but so does Notre Dame, and they will get in on these guys too. Hassan Haskins was a great player in high school—the system is getting better at identifying those guys.
- Off-air: This NIL approach is exactly like what got Michigan to fall behind in the 1950s. Oosterbaan and Crisler thought they had a solid program because they won in '47 and '48, and didn't figure out until it was way too late that they really were missing a major shift in CFB history and allowing MSU, OSU, and ND to thrive when Michigan should have dominated the early TV era.
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment Two is here. You can watch the video here:
The Usual Links:
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You could just show him all of Xavier's NCAA victories the last five years.
Will try to listen later but looking at the bullets I just want to say that I absolutely do not agree that Baker is or should guard 2s. He's never been a good defender, he isn't known for being athletic, and he's coming off hip surgery. Would we ever want Duncan defending 2s? Houstan? Livers? I think it is more likely that Baker plays the 4 than the 2, even though I realize that Howard basically likes to have a PG, a C, and three forwards.
I think the guys who will play the "2" for Michigan this year are in this order.....
1. Kobe
2. Jett
3. Llewelyn
I don't think you'll see Baker on the floor at any point without one of those guys anyway, so it makes it easy for him to avoid guarding the 2. We pretty much know our top-8 players right now in the rotation and all we're waiting to learn is who will be that 8.5th player who gets some run but inconsistently. (That was TWill two years ago and Bufkin last year)
" Players have value to their institutions before they play: they have earned it."
...but Michigan NIL law prohibits providing benefits to "prospective students".
Good point.
I also think at a certain point an institution has to be what it is. If Michigan tries to play fast and loose it will be bad at it because that's just not in Michigan's DNA. As things stabilize and things are a little less unstructured, Michigan will figure out a way to move forward and be effective, the football program is too important as a face of the University, but for now, Michigan will be Michigan and it will be slow and cautious and somewhat high and mighty and arrogant. We can be as frustrated as we want to be about this, but this is where we are.
And msu is abiding by the letter of that law as well?
If so, then Harbaugh's nfl dalliance & the coordinator changes may have completely destroyed any crootin benefits of the B10/CFP run.
But if msu is not? Then Fuck that law! Isn't a single other school abiding by ncaa or state laws regarding NIL!
"Isn't a single other school abiding by ncaa or state laws regarding NIL! "
There are no NCAA laws or rules.
There are only state laws - and every state allows different things. Michigan doesn't allow NIL for prospective students. That doesn't mean other states do not.
So I repeat:
Is msu abiding by this MI state law as strictly as Michigan is?
If they are, then we may be in a spot of trouble with the class of '23.
By '24 the concern over Harbaugh's attempted move will likely be passed.
Likely...
I wonder if we would have been better off if Harbaugh had left for the NFL. Atleast with new coach you might get some excitment from having a new guy running things. I dont know seems like the dalliaance is hurting us more then championship run helped.
JFC. You don't seem to remember the last two coaches and how much everyone bitched about the coach before that.
Yeah, I listened to the podcast later because of travel and remembered the same thing. Yes, I'm sure MSU is playing a bit fast-and-loose with that rule but it's there and UM isn't going to risk possibly having legal fallout because of it. That's their nature and you can debate how valid that is but this podcast's ongoing obsession with making UM sound incompetent while ignoring the world they actually exist in is getting a bi tiring.
Nice to see Brian's pic. Would really like to know a bit more about what is going on at mgoblog behind the scenes, who is doing what, whether you're increasing staffing or looking to, who will be writing, who will be doing what. I kinda understand some of what happened with Brian. Not completely clear on Ace, but clear enough. Don't know anything really about the rest. All I'll say is it seems like things have shifted down in terms of coverage, and I'm assuming this is because you're short staffed.
Things always shift down when they are writing/assembling HTTV, but I agree with the rest of your comment.
I think everyone is still trying to claw their way out of the BPONE. It just seems like the AD is forever 1 step forward and 2 steps back. Bakich leaving really sucks. The basketball season was very disappointing. Now, we come off the best football season in what feels like forever, and there is nowhere near the positive buzz we were all hoping for. I'm sorry, but Harbaugh and Warde's approach to NIL is laughably naive and going to cost this program in a huge way if they don't wake up and get with the times.
I'm filing all of that under, I'm mildly curious but its actually none of my business.
Ooof...coaches better hope they somehow pull a rabbit out of the hat with the 5* qb in the 24' class that was up a bit ago, I'm drawing a blank on his name. I understood why they put all their eggs into the Moore basket but sounds like it is going to be an epic blowup in their faces.
Yeah, might be time to pivot. This is turning into a bit of a convoluted recruitment and those don't tend to end well.
I get that 5* QB's are important....but I don't think that they are critical to success. We don't have to look back any further than last year to find Cade McNamara (4*) who lead a team that won the B1G as a RS Sophomore (removing Covid provisions). The other Jake (Rudock) in the recent past was a 3*.
Michigan is still Michigan and should still have the opportunity to land high end QB recruits from across the country. There's also the Portal which provides other opportunities. I realize that Michigan has struggled at QB in some previous seasons....but I'm optimistic as we look forward.
I agree with your take, mostly. I think the issue here is CJ Carr was a legacy and Dante Moore is in our backyard. We lost both - that is just two big swings and misses on guys we should have had a leg up on. Sucks to lose two guys in the backyard but I think the overall lack of exciting athletes committing in this cycle is far more concerning than losing two 5-star QB's for Michigan's long term success.
If finally beating OSU, winning the B1G for the first time in almost 20 years, making playoffs and having one of their best seasons ever, in their 130+ year history, isn't enough recruiting momentum I'm not sure what else Michigan can do.
The way Harbaugh wants this offense, we're fine with guys like Cade McNamara as long as we have two-headed RB tandems like Haskins/Corum or Corum/Edwards, and elite or close to elite level OL play.
That said, Michigan saw what they needed to beat a team like UGA on the national stage, and it was simply more elite athletes - at all levels. Michigan doesn't 'need' an elite QB to win the playoffs, but they certainly need more elite athletes elsewhere.
As for the portal, unless it's a grad transfer it ain't happening. And even then you're not getting any elite players at Michigan (Olu is an aberration that resulted from ALL the stars aligning when his coach left UVA - it is not going to be the norm at Michigan).
You're rationalizing the damage in perception losing 2 SE Michigan 5* QBs in successive classes does to crootin momentum (1 a legacy whose family is synonymous with Michigan)!
I can't speak to the family dynamic that would make Carr reportedly determined from a young age to not go to Michigan (think about it- if his father's version is accurate, CJ was making this life decision right around when Chad Tough was in full swing). I grew up in a Michigan family & nothing would have kept me from playing for Michigan if offered!
But to lose Dante too seems very tied to not being competitive in NIL opportunities. Perhaps it's not, but we're talking perception here!
And if it is something aside from NIL driving these players away from Michigan, well that's an even worse problem, one that couldn't be fixed by "the money cannon" this blog fantasized about for years!
No idea what Dante wants. May be kids who grow up in Michigan wants to move out of the State? I hope not. If it is NIL related, then it is what it is. If Dante and Carr who grew up understanding Michigan and it's Football program and it's history, don't want to come here, I really don't know if a great NIL is going to fix that.
It's possible CJ didn't want to follow in his dad (and grand dad's) footsteps. That's a lot of pressure from an already ridiculous fanbase (yes, ND is nuts too). Maybe he just wanted to create his own legacy. Brian Griese did just that by choosing Michigan over Purdue. But yeah, sucks to lose two kids we 'thought' we had the inside track on.
I think the bigger issue is that it seems, like others have pointed out, that Michigan didn't read the situation properly and went all-in after Moore when they should have had other viable options at QB. Regardless, having elite QB's at Michigan is not really a thing - I said it before and I'll say it again, if Michigan really wants to compete at the highest level they need a dominant OL and elite RB's. Then just add in as many elite athletes anywhere you can. Trying to go for the Trevor Lawrence or Arch Manning type QB's has never worked for Michigan (Drew Henson aside, and even then he didn't pan out). But that's just my uneducated opinion as a Michigan fan since the late 80's.
I dont know if i can listen to this any more... its making want to start drinking at 10 AM. If Sam is worried then im worried
Agree, Sam framed it like a question, but I think it's pretty clear that is what he believes is happening and that he is telling us all to get ready for it.
I gotta say, it’s really disappointing that we are acting like we are above NIL.
Enjoy this year gentlemen, because we might be the heading into a 5-year slump.
I am still holding out hope that they are going to surprise everyone on the field. It is possible. Yeah. Not looking like a positive video.
The good news is that this won’t impact this years team, and likely won’t impact next years team much. But beyond that…yikes!
The level the football program has just missile kicked itself in the nuts since January is absolutely incredible.
Am I the only one, or are there others out there who would appreciate more concrete discussion/analysis of how UM uses/intends to use NIL, and how that approach differs from other universities (including in-state analogs like MSU, other B1G schools, and nationwide)? There's an awful lot of vague word-salad getting tossed around (including on today's segment) about how UM's NIL approach is not competitive with other schools. But I'd sure appreciate hearing specific ways in which UM is not making good use of its opportunities. E.g. an example (no need to name names; it could even be a made-up example as long as it's realistic) describing an NIL deal available at another school that would not be possible at Michigan, including what specific features of the arrangement wouldn't work here, and why.
Maybe this has been done somewhere and I've just missed it. But most of what I'm seeing is a lot of hair-tearing and garment-rending that begins to seem un-credible when it's not accompanied by examples.
If you go on a trip to TCU you sit down with the NIL director, and they say they're going to pay X
Michigan did NOT just get this way.
Thanks. But that answer kind of begs my question. What "they" is going to pay X? The TCU NIL director? The TCU athletic department? Or presumably some private entity/company for whom the athlete's NIL has some potential value? I'm inferring from what I've read (admittedly mostly via MGoBlog) that TCU (and other schools) are intermediating NIL deals between athletes (and prospective athletes) to an extent that UM does not. But what is that extent? What specifically is UM not doing that other schools are doing? What happens when you take a trip to Ann Arbor? Does the NIL director not sit down with you? Is there not an NIL director at UM? And what are the reasons for those shortcomings? From the quotes by the AD and Harbaugh, I understand that some reasons are philosophical (or at least principle-based). Or perhaps based in a perception of reputational risk to the university as a whole. But are there other reasons too -- perhaps structural or legal (bylaws, university charter, state laws or regs)?
Zooming back out, my main point is that, from a business standpoint on the part of the athlete whose choice of where to enroll is going to be influenced by the kind of benefit he (and hopefully she) can derive from NIL deals, the value of those deals is going to be determined by those gritty details. So it seems to me any assessment that a school's NIL game is "strong" or "weak" needs to start with those specifics.
It's moneyball (this time with actual money).
Also...what's to stop a NIL collective from working directly w a recruit, like Dante, and signing him to a deal. Nothing. So how much does it matter if Warde and Harbaugh are out waving the NIL flag especially for a local guy like Dante w a name that's already recognisable all over the state. Hard to believe he wouldn't get a top notch NIL deal from local businesses with or without UMs involvement.
What we know so far is our NIL game is weak. This is coming directly from Hunter Dickinson. Beyond that, you can tell from Sam Webb’s disposition on this topic is that we need to improve greatly here. Sam won’t come out directly and say that our NIL game is weak, but you can read between the lines with him.
I’m like you, I’d like to know more and get a more concrete response from the AD how we are going to do this going forward. I’m guessing they don’t even know themselves. And it shows.
We all know that college football players have been getting paid for decades. Some schools paid more than others. Why is Michigan State doing so well now in the NIL era? Does this indicate that they were NOT paying top dollar before, but they are now going full throttle into the new age of more transparent payments? Michigan will fall behind quickly as long as they hold on to the notion that they are the Harvard of the West, but I am curious as to what MSU is doing differently that has so many 4-star recruits signing up. Surely these players can find money at programs with more recent success.
So Wingding put in a ball for Dante Moore to Oregon.
This may be a dumb idea, but is losing Dante Moore and CJ Carr the best thing that can happen?
Missing two elite prospects at one position won't break the program, but it could be the wakeup call that the athletic department needs with minimal fallout. If they get Moore anyway, then they have reason to continue their thisisfine.meme.gif mentality.
I'm not actively hoping for a bad recruiting class, but I'd rather have one very weak class and stark reality resulting in Michigan upping its game than a steady slide into talent deficiencies across the board. (This of course implies that they get the message.)
Maybe.. I guess, but I wouldn't count on it. This is a UM culture issue. Some may call it arrogance, but whatever it is, it almost certainly isn't going to change soon or very fast. I would say there is a better chance of UM reverting to the mean or worse and promoting the kids they get as "Michigan Men" and "players that want to play for Michigan", as opposed to trying to line up cash to get a 5* recruit. The other thing is that a large part of the fan base and admin are just fine with this.
I realize that I'm late to the party on this discussion, but when I read the summary I was curious as a fan of Michigan football history to hear about analogy to the post-Crisler/Oosterbaan era. I listened to the podcast, and didn't hear anything about that. I assumed that "off air" meant the during-the-breaks conversations, which you can usually still hear on the pod. Anyway, if Seth is still monitoring this I'm curious if I might have accidentally fast-forwarded past the Crisler/Oosterbaan conversation, or if it didn't make it onto the podcast?
When we get clobbered by MSU, OSU, and PSU fans need to understand that there is only so much a coach can do if they are caught between a rock and a hard place:. Schools paying recruits to sign and a culture that doesn't allow it.
We will hear the calls to fire Harbaugh, but unless we change with the NIL era, expect more of the same.
We are being outclassed in the portal and in recruiting.
Michigan football is such a massive money generator for the state of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and the University when they are winning
I can't support this stupidity if something doesn't change with how NIL is unregulated and UM not taking every advantage to win.
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