Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

The last decade of Michigan football has followed the same general pattern. Early season results give a sense of hope and progress, which are then stomped into a fine paste by a cruel and uncaring fate. Which, for today at least, is good news.

You see, you can’t have your hopes crushed unless those hopes are first built up. A rocket needs a certain amount of fuel to reach the optimal height from which the catastrophic explosion can have the most spectacular result. And in Michigan’s case, that fuel has been provided time and again by the home opener.

So far, so good…

In the last ten years, Michigan is 10-0 in home openers. They have won those games by an average score of 42-10, with 9 of those 10 wins coming by 20 or more points. In those ten games, they have outgained their opposition by an average of 3.3 yards per play (and that number jumps up to 4.2 yards per play under Harbaugh). Michigan has surrendered more than 14 points once. They have scored fewer than 30 points zero times. They trailed in exactly one of those games at any point, held a lead at halftime of every game, and have held a lead for every moment of every second half.

[After THE JUMP: Insight into Middle Tenneseanity]

I don’t offer much of an opinion as to why the last decade, which has been so filled with pain, has nevertheless opened so well at home each year. Some of it surely has to do with the level of competition; the only Power 5 opponent in that stretch was Oregon State, who… yeah. And some of it comes from the inherent advantages of playing at home in the largest stadium in the country. But for whatever reason, this game never seems to be a problem.

So, can Middle Tennessee be the team to reverse this trend? Maybe. Maybe not. Probably not? I’m gonna be honest with you. I don’t know much about Middle Tennessee State University’s 2019 football team. Now, this isn’t entirely my fault. They’re returning like 10 starters, so even devoted MTSU fans barely know anything about their beloved Blue Raiders. But even before everyone left, my knowledge was approximately “I think Brent Stockstill is still the quarterback?” And now that Brent Stockstill and his 1600 career passes are gone, I got nothing.

However, I have good news: while my knowledge of Middle Tennessee (the football program) is sub-par, my knowledge of Middle Tennessee (the region) is vast. I too live in the Nashville area—a mere 30 miles west of Murfreesboro, where MTSU resides—and can therefore provide some general insight into today’s opponent:

• MTSU will feel at home in Ann Arbor. Something like 60% of the residents of the greater Nashville area are transplants from the state of Michigan. Also, MTSU’s defensive coordinator, Scott Shafer, spent approximately 4 months in Ann Arbor that one time.
• MTSU will be well-conditioned. This evening’s forecast is extremely pleasant, so heat may not be a factor. But the Blue Raiders live and practice in a region that is practically uninhabitable this time of year. So, like a marathoner who trains at altitude, these guys have been primed their bodies to operate in a land where the air is practically a poaching liquid. They’re going to be running wind sprints for fun between plays.
• MTSU will not handle adverse field conditions well. There is a chance of rain this evening. And if that happens, Middle Tennessee is in serious trouble. Any —ANY — precipitation will cause complete and utter chaos.

Snow day? Snow day.

The equipment truck will end up overturned on the golf course. The team busses will be three hours late to the game. Half the training staff will be sent to Meijer to stock up on bread and milk. The only player allowed to speak at the coin toss will be the guy holding the conch shell.

• MTSU will hit 56% of their field goals. That might not sound great, but it can be good enough.
• MTSU will play with great camaraderie. If the bachelorette parties of Nashville are to be believed, all it will take to get MTSU hyped is to play “Old Town Road” or “Sweet Home Alabama.”
• MTSU eats insanely, unnecessarily spicy chicken. This is unrelated to the football game. It’s just worth pointing out. Chicken doesn’t have to taste like magma guys.

Add it all up, and it’s hard to see how Middle Tennessee reverses the tide of recent history tonight. So sit back, relax, and enjoy that moment where you don’t yet know the destiny you’re being set up to suffer. Michigan 42, MTSU 10

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COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

A few months ago, I had an epiphany. I had just finished a brisk two-hour hike to a mountain-top Buddhist shrine in Sri Lanka. Sitting at the edge of a rocky cliff, ensconced in blissful solitude and surrounded by the tranquil trawl of fog and clouds, I turned my reflective attention inwards. I thought long and hard about Big Important Things. Human pain, man’s eternal struggle, our collective unceasing suffering, listening to Lee Corso trying to get through a College Game Day broadcast. I slipped into a state of transcendental, meditative zen as my surroundings evaporated and I became oblivious to the physical realm. My mind was blank. “This is what Mark Dantonio must do when one of his star players commits a serious felony,” I recall thinking to myself.

Contemplating yet another Outback Bowl

I reflected on my own personal life choices that have in one way or another led to my own pain, my own suffering. I retraced various pivotal intersections of my life, my past actions and inactions, chances taken, and opportunities forsaken, each weaving together to lead me to that very moment, sitting on top of a Sri Lankan mountain.

Mostly, I thought about that day as a profoundly naive 7 year old in Southeast Michigan when I proudly—and naively—decided I would be a University of Michigan football fan.

And then I thought about crossing routes in Columbus; of a fumbled punt snap in Ann Arbor; of a cold night game against what should have been an easy win over an overmatched opponent in Iowa City; of a fourth down spot for which I doggedly studied more physics than I ever did as an undergraduate engineering student. Nightmarish visions swirled before me. Brady Hoke boorishly gnashing his hands together on the sideline like it would activate some sort of Clap-On-Clap-Off neural circuit for competent coaching in his brain. Something called a 3-3-5 with more holes in it than a Luke Fickell story. A god damn Turnover Chain Beanie Baby. James Fucking Franklin triumphantly lifting a Big Ten Championship Trophy before Jim Harbaugh.

Turnover Beanie Baby

Inspired by my immediate surroundings, I recalled the Buddhist concept of Nekkhamma, which is loosely translated to “giving up the world” or “detachment.” I contemplated how easy it would be to expunge myself from this decidedly worldly struggle, this unholy decade-plus pain. To simply detach myself from Michigan football fanhood and escape suddenly into the night like Urban Meyer from a team he realizes probably won’t win as much anymore. The suffocating stress, frustration and futility that have long come to define my Fall Saturdays would suddenly be released and replaced with pacifying nirvana.

And that’s when the intrusive thoughts began to creep in. Josh Gattis’ shiny new offense. Ronnie Bell leaping 15 feet into the air to snag a deep corner fade. Zach Charbonnet trucking his way to the end zone. Ben Mason seamlessly making the position switch to defensive line, carving a maniacal warpath into the MSU backfield, and actually eating Brian Lewerke alive. Shea Patterson raining bomb after bomb against Ohio State while Ryan Day looks on from the sidelines like a hopelessly lost assistant sales manager of a Dayton-area Home Depot and Greg Mattison smashes the red button on his Life Alert as he fills his Depends.

My pulse quickens. I can't help it. This is the year. This is the year we beat Ohio State. This is the year we win the Big Ten. This is the year we win the national championship.

With all due respect to Nekkhamma, I cannot detach from Michigan Football. Hopelessly futile optimism is my curse and I fully acknowledge I am likely setting myself up for catastrophic disappointment. But, hey, that disappointment won’t come until later in the season, October at the earliest. Right? I mean, it’s definitely not happening today against…. Uhhhhh…. Montana Technology and Science University, right? It couldn’t. I can’t name a single player on their team. No. It can’t. It would never. For sure.

Michigan 2, MTSU 4