Mailbag: Brown Transition Costs, Let's Go Moo, Schedule Balance, Autobench As Cause
let me show you how we handle punks in the district, punk [Patrick Barron]
Hi Brian,
Everywhere I turn this offseason, it seems someone is writing another article lauding the aggression, complexity, blitzes, and disguises built into Don Brown's defense. These attributes have obvious upside, but are we overlooking what could be a very steep learning curve for this defense? Can we really expect these guys to flawlessly execute such a reportedly complex defense within the first year?
Best,
Stephen Bowie
There will be transition costs; there always are. When you're real good and have real good players those can be overcome. Last year's offense had a bunch of transition costs and still rocketed from 82nd in S&P+ to 30th; in FEI they went from 100th(!) to 33rd. This leap occurred despite weekly UFR diatribes about how various people on Michigan's offense still didn't really know what they were doing.
It going to be tougher for the defense to have anything similar since they were already very good. It's hard to improve much from 20th (FEI) or 2nd (S&P+). The leap from DJ Durkin to Don Brown is probably extant; it is certainly less grand than the leap from Brady Hoke to Jim Harbaugh. Meanwhile Brown's defenses have tended to tread water in year one:
Year | TEAM | YPP | FEI | S&P+ |
---|---|---|---|---|
2008 | Maryland | 56 | 63 | 75 |
2009 | Maryland | 87 | 64 | 44 |
2010 | Maryland | 14 | 20 | 31 |
2011 | Maryland | 83 | 74 | 102 |
2010 | UConn | 40 | 40 | 63 |
2011 | UConn | 56 | 23 | 34 |
2012 | UConn | 8 | 22 | 38 |
2013 | UConn | 64 | 56 | 72 |
2012 | Boston College | 63 | 81 | 80 |
2013 | Boston College | 92 | 98 | 80 |
2014 | Boston College | 30 | 68 | 36 |
2015 | Boston College | 1 | 5 | 3 |
There's a ton of noise in that data since we're not accounting for returning starters and the like. It still suggests that a great leap forward should not be expected.
On the other hand, Don Brown has never been handed even half of the talent he's got this year and it's almost all very experienced. Michigan's starting D consists of eight seniors, a redshirt junior, Jabrill Peppers, and Rashan Gary. While these guys haven't worked on certain things Brown does, they've at least encountered them from time to time; they can also spend the bulk of their offseason working on that stuff since you can take it as read that they've got man free coverages down.
It is a concern, but the schedule is reassuring. I'll take a series of early biffs against teams Michigan beats by 21 instead of 28 if the payoff is a defense that is finally, finally, finally equipped with the state of the art in shutting down a spread n shred. The talent available should mitigate some of those hiccups—a coverage bust doesn't hurt you if the QB is running for his life—and once those get smoothed over, Michigan's ceiling is higher.
Let's go moo
Hello,
In my travels throughout the internet I came a cross a rather unique rendition of 'Let's Go Blue' that I thought should be shared. There is a man named Farmer Derek, a high level Bard no doubt, who serenades his cattle and posts the songs on YouTube. At the end of his version of Royals by Lorde he goes into Let's Go Blue and the cattle respond in kind. I don't know what should be done with this video, if anything, but I believe it should be shared and thought you should be notified. Cheers.
Sincerely yours in football,
PinballPete
This is a great service to the fandom, Pinball Pete:
[After THE JUMP: not cows responding to Let's Go Blue so why even bother]
Schedule balance to return in the future?
Brian:
Much of the talk about future Michigan/Michigan State/Ohio State schedules ignores the likelihood that Penn State will be one of the most successful B1G programs in the next few years. Perhaps you disagree because you trust Dantonio and don't trust Franklin, but I assume that in a decade, PSU is more likely to be competing for division titles than MSU is. With that in mind, the perfect set-up would be what we had most of the time before--go to MSU and PSU in odd years, go to OSU in even years. If we can't get that back, what we have is probably the second best of the possibilities, at least with regard to competitiveness.
Why am I wrong?
Andrew
It's not really about competitive balance. It's about ticket attractiveness. Like it or not, Michigan State is a rival and Penn State isn't. Even when MSU was suffering through those odd 50 years after the South started letting black guys play, the average buzz around the stadium when MSU was in town exceeded that of even good PSU outfits. For people in the state or around the state who comprise the large bulk of ticketholders it is a bigger deal simply because of proximity. PSU might get better; they won't get closer.
The ideal setup is having OSU one year and PSU/MSU the other year, because OSU is a season ticket on its own. If the Big Ten hadn't hated Dave Brandon so much they boned him when the schedules got rearranged Michigan would still have that.
Recruiting profile opinion shifts.
Brian,
As always, I have really enjoyed the recruiting profiles. I know you mentioned that you flipped your view on McDoom and Johnson after you prepared the profiles, but were there any others that surprised you? Personally, you were higher on all 3 of the tight ends than I thought you would be and on the flip side, you were more negative about Evans and Kemp than I was expecting.
thanks,
Jason
Yeah, my opinion shifted on a number of guys in the process of going through their profiles. I'll give you some stock up and stock down guys, but keep in mind this is based on my own internal thought processes rather than the rankings. Also a stock down is not doom or hatred, but rather a guy who might take a while to see the field:
STOCK UP:
- Kareem Walker. The lack of tape and late downgrade made me think I'd go into his profile and come out thinking he didn't get dumped enough. Instead found a guy who does a lot of subtle things and can be a top physical package if things work out.
- Eddie McDoom. Obviously.
- Devin Asiasi. As I mentioned in the post, on Signing Day it felt like Asiasi was a slight bonus on top of Rashan Gary. After going through his profile I was reminded that this was probably the top TE in the country for Harbaugh and his style of play. That is a big, big deal.
- Sean McKeon. Did not realize he was that athletic.
- Josh Uche. The other sleeper of the year. A Don Brown dude.
- David Long. Long is a lock. A lock, a lock, a lock.
STOCK DOWN:
- Ahmir Mitchell. Had not realized his senior season was so devoid of production. Forgot that he got worked by Reon Dawson on that one clip. Off-field stuff also a problem.
- Carlo Kemp. He should be a solid player but appears to be an SDE/WDE tweener who won't excel at either position.
- Devin Bush. For some reason I thought he was higher rated by the services.
- Lavert Hill. Still think he's got great upside and he did have a fantastic senior year. Did not realize there were a bunch of reports that he got burned deep on the regular because of a lack of "eye discipline" out there. More variance in his outcome than I had assumed.
I went into the Nick Eubanks and Nate Johnson profiles expecting what I found, for the most part. Eubanks is a huge wild card. I still like Johnson a lot as the slot who can also burninate a safety deep; I just like McDoom a little bit better since I think he can thrive on the outside. Both are underrated. I also came out about the same on Chris Evans: fast as hell, but a man without a position. I'd be higher on him if this was the kind of offense that had a spread-style H-back.
Autobench as a cause of low fouling?
Like you, I am not a fan of JB's auto bench policy. Makes no sense to take decision making out of the process...game flow, value of being on the floor, downgrade of the replacement, match ups, cooling down a hot shooter, etc. And you have pointed out the fact that UM is consistently one of the lowest fouling teams in the country, so presumably a player with 2 fouls is in less danger of getting 3 and 4 on a UM team. But I wonder if we are missing a nuance wherein the auto bench policy itself helps DRIVE the low foul rate, or at least has a large impact? If player X is coached that the punishment for early fouling is automatic benching, said player is much less likely to foul to begin with, no? I guess the question is that enough of a positive impact to swing the pendulum away from all the obvious negatives?
Yours in Bluedom,
Beegs, class of '89
Unfortunately I can't find anything on the internet that gives you foul times in enough detail to confirm or disconfirm such a thing. I am personally skeptical that autobench drives much of Michigan's low foul rate.
A cursory scan of Kenpom's autobench data by coach doesn't show much correlation between team foul frequency and autobench strategy. Mike Brey is another coach whose teams never ever foul (since 2012 ND has been 6th, 4th, 29th, 5th, and 11th in FTA/FGA) and he is amongst the most autobench-averse coaches in college basketball. Ditto Jim Boeheim, though the fact that he plays all zone complicates things. Arizona and Baylor are also amongst the most aggressive teams in this category and their foul rates are generally low, though not in the Brey/Beilein zone.
I should also point out that there are plenty of good defenses that pile up fouls. The absolute worst team in FTA/FGA a year ago, West Virginia, was 7th in defensive efficiency. #1 efficiency D Wichita State was 327th in FTA/FGA. Fewer fouls does not necessarily mean better D, something that I expect Billy Donlon and Beilein to have a debate on CNN about this fall. Seth made a graph:
That scatter pattern and R-squared are characteristic of two variables that don't correlate much. Foul avoidance isn't even much of a goal to shoot for.
I probably shouldn't bother with a response to this but it happened.
The SEC-ification is now complete.
A fashion show in Detroit?
A program that gets publicity via the tweets from their head coach?
"Camps" in Miami?
I've always held Michigan to an incredibly high standard and the torch bearer of the Big Ten of how sport and Athletics can work in harmony.
I just can't help but think there is now nothing separating Michigan from the likes of OSU, Alabama & Oregon except winning football games over the last 20 years. This sucks.
I'm an Iowa fan who loves your insights on the game and Michigan has always been my 2nd favorite team.
I'm not sure why I'm writing except for I'm discouraged by the last year+ of your program.
Maybe I'm jealous?
Maybe i'm just discouraged by the trajectory of big time college athletics?
dan
I think you're picking your battles unwisely. If you're going to stick your nose up in the air about something it should probably be about something weightier than Twitter or satellite camps. Michigan's APR is through the roof—not that this distinguishes it from most of the Big Ten—and they aren't admitting guys caught on tape beating up on prone women. Again, not that this distinguishes it from most of the Big Ten. Twitter bombs and Nike marketing are small potatoes compared to the things that have gone down at Mississippi State, Baylor, Tennessee, Ole Miss, and various other schools.
Michigan booted Logan Tuley-Tillman for an offense that would have barely registered many places. The guys who have left the team this offseason have, with one exception*, left with degrees. When that's not happening come talk to me about the SEC.
*[Brian Cole was booted for a violation of team rules, again for things that might not have raised flags at many schools.]
Front page content. Just what we needed.
I'm hurt.
Only if I can do a summary thread of your summary thread.
...or maybe I'll make a joke about "true fans" because it feels so good when the beating stops.
My guess is that the front page will be just a bit slower than usual.
The recruiting question regarding whether your opinions of other players ended up changing as you reviewed them was a really good one. That's actually a good idea for a post, now that the in-depth profiles are completed, something like a class summary or class evaluation would be awesome to read, especially since you've had the chance to delve pretty deep into each player.
I would think the guy in that last letter really really hates satin helmets.
at least we have matte then!!
/s ducks back to Bolivia
Eggshell
I'm an Iowa fan who loves your insights on the game and Michigan has always been my 2nd favorite team. I'm not sure why I'm writing except for I'm discouraged by the last year+ of your program.
hahaha get the f out dude, I'm sure you weren't waving our flag in support after the App State game
He's an Iowa fan, so he's used to his team being "kind of good" most of the time and "pretty good" once or twice a decade. Michigan is aiming a little higher, and you've got to make some noise to make that happen.
The audacity of a bandwagon, part-time fan writing in to criticize is staggering. His opinion isn't needed or valued as he thinks.
Iowa Fan Dan must be a professional troll. I'm talking about Grade A trolling here. As in this guy must do it for a living. I mean, he has to know how much Brian HATES one sentence paragraphs that break up continuous thoughts and water down emphasis. Well done, Iowa Fan Dan. Well done.
You, sir, are a genius. I wish I'd written this.
I appreciate your contribution PinballPete, but how the heck did your internet perusings lead you to a guy that plays trombone to his cows? Also, you actually had to listen to the whole rendition of Royals to get to Let's Go Blue. You must be very bored.
I bet a list of Pete's porn search history is fascinating reading.
I went through a period of unemployment and was indeed very bored. I found myself checking in daily with a 24/7 kitten cam from a rescue shelter and playing ps4 all day. All while eating pizza in my boxers. It was a glorious few months
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Meh, maybe he's just a fan of the greatest instrument known to man. I've seen this video a few times because my trombone brothers and sisters have passed it around.
August 5th, 2016 at 10:26 AM ^
I'm alive, but not quite well. You know how syphilis is.
I am glad to see someone actually bought a single from my farewell record, Wholesome. That is my second favorite track, after "Turn it Down, My Ears Hurt (ft. Scotty B.)"
"Michigan's starting D consists of eight seniors, a redshirt junior, Jabrill Peppers, and Rashan Gary"
This sentence literally made me cackle out loud.
I had the exact same reaction and thought of the phrase "cackle with knowing glee"
But, my first thought was -- wow, the reload for 2017 is going to suck.
Anytime you have so many seniors, you're talking about a lot of energy to sustain the level of play. OSU will be finding that out this year. If you recruit like OSU or Bama, that's one thing. But other than Rashan, I don't think our cupboard is quite that stocked (yet).
I remember how it killed Sam Bradford. He was Heisman winner, came back for a senior year. Only, his 5-senior OL from his jnr yr had graduated. His snr yr, he had an all new OL, IIRC (or maybe 1 of the 5 starters returned). And he got KILLED that year; never had time to throw, got injured, etc. And his pro career has been marked with lots of injuries too.
August 4th, 2016 at 11:39 PM ^
No matter the answer, it's the one you learned the most and the quickest because it was exciting, it was fun and when you were presented with someone who really knew how to teach it, you learned at a pace far in excess of any other.
This should assuage your concerns somewhat on how rapidly the D will pick up the complex system that has made Don's defenses among the best in the nation.
I recall at the middle school level when I was able to introduce more than your Eagle overload blitz to the young football players. It took them all of one explanation to realize they would be pulling the surprises and coming at the offense from a place unexpected for them to comprehend how much fun that would be if they pulled it off correctly. Defensive practice was the highlight for the team because although the offense was more complex as well, they had never experienced a defense predicated more on tendencies than simple assignment football, based on reading keys. When they learned that keys are always a part of defense but once the attack had began their assignments were to complete the stunt package they were sold, with their key being passed off similar to a pick and roll in basketball, learning was rapid and it was fun. They picked it up so fast as all teams do when excellent teaching meets hungry student.
You're going to be amazed at the speed with which they learn because part of the package is the freedom allowed in pulling off the design. Actually without it, it cannot be effective. It takes a total commitment on every defensive call and within the first three series the OL will be guessing so damn much, you can actually revert to your base defense and the expectations on the offensive side of the ball will guarantee ineffective reaction.
There are constants in every defense. There will always be a force to contain on either side. There will always be a safe second and third tier. it's incorporated into the defense. Don't be afraid of the curve. it begins to straighten out the very first practice.
Interesting analysis. So close to the first game. I can't wait.
Stock goes up, stock goes down, that's what player stock dooooeeeesssss.
Adam Jacobi? Are you the Iowa fan too?
Michigan's defense doesn't need to "improve" (statistically) to be better. We were unreal in the first half of the 2015 season, and then could not stop the two spread n' shred teams we faced in the last few games. I don't think we will truly know how much the defense has improved - if at all - until the OSU game. Other than that, who are the best offenses we face? MSU and Iowa? Maybe Wisconsin? Do we really expect the defense to struggle at all in those games?
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
Yes, I will be unreasonably interested about the Indiana game for just this reason - to see how a Don Brown D does against an authentic spread.
No they are not Ohio State, but they are a barometer of progress or not. We have struggled with their O for a number of years now.
August 5th, 2016 at 10:25 AM ^
He stood out to me when I attended the spring practice at IMG. I saw a WR wearing #2 that looked different from the other WR's (excluding Chesson and Darboh). I was like who is that guy? It was Mitchell and he looked good.
Hill went from LOCK. LOCK. LOCK. to LOCK. LOCK. LOCK?
I thought your review was still pretty glowing. I don't think a players YMRMFSPA being Jourdan Lewis is an underwhelming thing.
To me, Carlo Kemp is Chris Wormley with family pedigree. Great size for a freshman. 4 star on 3/4 of the sites. Lower body like a tree trunk. I'm pumped to see him in year 3 flash what he will turn into in year 4 & 5.
Wormley may be the ceiling, what I got from Brian's review is that the ceiling may end up being Roh - good starter, not All B1G.
I love Roh's and RVB's. I just think Kemp can be more of an impact guy down the road then those guys were based on the talent that will be around him.
I'd say between Harbaugh's effusive praise and his performance in the Spring game, Kemp is one of the freshman to keep an eye on for early playing time.
August 5th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^
If you were describing any other human who doesn't do things with an EUTM, I would have been irritated with your improper use of "literally" when you really meant "figuratively". However you are describing Jim Harbaugh, so I know you actually did mean "literally". That is hilarious -- had not heard that.
Who knew that cattle reacted to the trombone the same way Iowa girls do to Culver's commercials? By the way, Iowa has always been my second favorite team.
When Don Brown says line up in a 4-3, he means line up in a 4-3.
I don't see the need to 'down stock' Devin Bush. Wasn't he always kind of underrated because he lacks elite size? It seems like that concern is at least somewhat offset by the fact that Harbaugh really wanted him, Brown apparently favors smaller, faster, instinctive linebackers and his offer list is legit: Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisville, LSU, Miami (YTM), Mississippi State, NC State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon, Oregon State, Pitt, Rutgers, South Carolina, TCU, Tennessee, Texas, UCLA, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Colorado and Wisconsin.
Fast, mean, and always in the right place.
And with Don Brown calling the blitzes, I think Bush could end up Ian Gold+++.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
You are correct.
Comments