I Don't Trust It But It's Still There
9/18/2021 – Michigan 63, Northern Illinois 10 – 3-0
Fortunes change quickly in MAC (and, er, Pac-12) bodybag season. The aftermath of last week was a lot of people pointing and yelling about one half of an equation when both halves were true. The aftermath this week is a lot of people considering maybe thinking about proposing to run at the football Lucy is holding. Transitive football has been invoked.
You see, Rudy: Michigan hammered Northern Illinois like it was not there, and Northern Illinois beat Georgia Tech, and Georgia Tech was a yard and a two-point conversion away from overtime with Clemson. Therefore Michigan should be a ~53 point favorite over Clemson. It's science.
Add in Washington getting off the mat and Western Michigan beating Pitt and things get stupid fast.
I almost never share this because people overreact to it and it has no predictive value, but I CAN'T HELP IT, THIS IS THE WORLD I WANT TO LIVE IN.
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 19, 2021
SP+ top 5 if all preseason projections were taken out:
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Ole Miss
4. Texas Tech
5. Florida
You probably skipped over the "no predictive value" bit as you look longingly at that football poised under the girl in the blue dress's finger. Even if you did, it's little defense. The things that are supposed to have predictive value are also inviting you to have a run. SP+ with priors—ie, Connolly's baby—has Michigan sixth. ESPN's other predictive ranking system, FPI, puts them at the same spot.
This is a far cry from rampant 7-5 predictions preseason. MVictors' "Mood" has shot up in a few short weeks:
I'm not going to tell anyone how to feel. I am merely going to suggest that you are all fools and we are doomed. Okay, yeah, Blake Corum. Okay, yeah, Ohio State's running around demoting their defensive coordinator mid-season. Okay, sure, the defense is checking in well above expectations.
A rational person would be experiencing cautious optimism at this point… if he could block out the entire recent history of Michigan football. A rational person who cannot do that would measure the potential upside of investing versus the downside and hoard all his emotional chips on the sideline. Or maybe whatever, life's for living. Let's open up the possibility of ruining a weekend again. Maybe that is your decision, if you are a fool. A person with no ability to judge risk. A straight-up innumerate weirdo.
Yes, I'm talking myself out of it.
-----------------------------------------
Even your author—high up on the list of skeptical Michigan fans and thus high up on the list of skeptics worldwide—has to admit there is a tremor in there.
You can get a sense of how much stupid your team contains even against the dregs of college football—ask FSU. Every college team has some, just waiting for the right moment to come out of its cage and do just fine in its quest to make heads explode and surrender cobras bloom like so many wildflowers. Nobody is immune; some teams veritably drip with it. Many Michigan teams of recent vintage have.
To date, Michigan's level of stupid is shockingly minimal. There have not been guys handwavingly wide open. The running backs are perfect metronomes. They haven't turned the ball over. The punts are fair caught. The kicks go in the endzone. The offensive line has been creepily efficient at preventing opponents from blitzing into the backfield.
This is coming off a season so rife with stupid stuff that the NIU quarterback, who had 18 passing yards for most of this game, had 323 in his Michigan State incarnation, more than half of them to a guy who was also in a famous Vine. They deep-sixed the defensive staff and made Sherrone Moore the OL coach, displacing Ed Warinner with a guy who'd never officially coached the spot. One of the new, touted defensive coaches left for Buffalo a couple weeks into his Michigan career.
In short, this makes no sense. No amount of offseason turnover should result in this drastic reduction in stupid, let alone the seemingly chaotic turnover of 2021. So I don't trust it. But I am, like, looking at it. I look at it and I see it and I wait to be informed I am on an acid trip and the squirrel is actually a fox.
I look at it, and don't trust it, but it is there. Resolving into something. Maybe this is a weird season and Michigan will benefit. In a year more reminiscent of chaos seasons of 15 years ago than the usual Alabama trudge of late, Michigan looks remarkably unchaotic. For now. I'm still squinting.
AWARDS
Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week
hey let's make pancakes [Campredon]
#1 Your Offensive Line. I mean, four different backs averaged at least 6.2 YPC. McNamara was not sacked and had eons of time to hit Johnson on the long TD. OL got out in front of Henning's edge plays, and obliterated everyone on the interior.
#2 Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, and Donovan Edwards. Combine for 267 yards on 30 carries and you might make it up in this section. IMO Corum remains a nose or six ahead of the pack but the ability to keep everyone fresh and not make anyone in particular Chris Perry in that one MSU game is hugely valuable. 3 points each! Sure!
#3 AJ Henning. 70 yards in punt returns and two explosive offensive touches slides him in front of a couple other candidates.
Honorable mention: There was so much rotation on the D that nobody got a ton of time to stand out, but both Nikhai Hill-Green and Josh Ross came up with sticks; Gemon Green grabbed a deflection; Dax Hill had a drive-ending PBU. Cornelius Johnson's double move was rad.
KFaTAotW Standings.
(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)
16: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU)
11: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU)
7: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
6: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU), Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU).
2: Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Brad Robbins (HM Wash), Jake Moody (HM Wash), Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU)
Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week
Michigan executes a two-minute drill with one 87-yard pass to Cornelius Johnson, adding another data point to the "Cade McNamara has a deep ball" column.
Honorable mention: More or less any running play. Michigan forces a turnover.
MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.
The one drive NIU had in the competitive section of the football game.
Honorable mention: Uh, Henning let a couple punts bounce? The holding call that brought back Franklin's touchdown.
[After THE JUMP: more SP+ madness]
OFFENSE
Ask again later. We knew going into this one that the NIU defense was bereft of talent, played pillow-soft coverage, and had been paved by lesser lights. This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the country. The things GT did are the things Michigan was going to do. This from the first drive was more or less lights out. Watch #86 Schoonmaker to the bottom of the line completely wipe a purported DE:
He had a good game but the opponent had a ton to do with that.
Caveats aside, there are some things you can take from the game. Let's sift some sand:
zip zap [Campredon]
Blake Corum, yeehaw. There were three or four runs in this game where I involuntarily cocked an eyebrow: Corum slipping through two ankle tackles and keeping his balance, Corum patiently waiting for a gap and then exploding into it, Corum finding a cutback lane on a play designed well away from his eventual destination.
THIS is poetry in motion.
— Due# (@JDue51) September 19, 2021
NIU actually has a good defense called and the LB scrapes over the top to get in position. But the blocking is perfectly executed. And Blake Corum. My goodness. Puts his hand down aftrr initial contact, then explodes. pic.twitter.com/7nGVZbOOm5
He WOOPED a linebacker at the line of scrimmage in a hole that didn't look like it had enough room for that sort of thing. And yeah dart is on the table:
Blake Corum is FAST pic.twitter.com/5CzMxg8bdh
— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 18, 2021
Corum came in 3rd nationally in PFF RB grade this week, FWIW.
AJ Henning is fast. Henning got the punt return job in this game and looks set to keep it since when he lets a ball bounce sometimes he takes it back 30 yards. (Still advisable to catch the ball.) Henning was two ankle tackles away from long touchdowns on his two offensive touches and Michigan should probably be crafting ways to get that touch count up to 4 or 5.
AJ Henning's bro is Andrew Vastardis. Vastardis displayed impressive mobility in space on both of Henning's touches. Here he gets accidentally chipped by a DL and that's probably the only thing separating him from enough of a block on a safety that Henning goes the distance:
On the jet he pulled from C and got in a thump:
He's been impressive.
[Campredon]
Donovan Edwards is also fast. The pause here and then the burst:
Normally we'd be talking about how to get him more carries but from where?
Another day almost totally lacking in OL mental issues. Seth with have to confirm this but I'm not sure we've seen a DL or LB get a free pass to the backfield more than a couple times this year. Even good OLs will occasionally have a mental biff that gives a front seven player a free TFL. Here NIU got two, one of which was a freebie when McNamara fumbled the snap. Washington had three but two of those were from secondary members on bubble/swing screens. WMU had two; one was from a corner. That's one front-seven TFL per game so far. We've also seen approximately no pass rushers come in clean.
Despite being very bad, these defenses are stunting and blitzing and doing things that they hope will confuse Michigan's OL on a regular basis. Bad defenses might do it less as they try to get the basics down, but everyone has tricks up their sleeve. Michigan has not been vulnerable to them yet. Here's Keegan, one of the greener guys playing for Michigan, calmly identifying a LB blitz and dealing with it:
LG #77
A passing game. Another game with only 11 throws from the starting QB, so data remains thin on the ground. This was more encouraging, obviously, with McNamara looking confident and polished. There was the TD, of course, but he also hit a TE seam:
Big difference between this D and Washington.
Meanwhile in JJ McCarthy: he looked very viable as an occasional runner on the keep he got inside the five, and there is a certain je ne sais quoi about the ball he throws.
DEFENSE
[Campredon]
Possibly meaningful result given the opposition. The one thing NIU was doing really well over the first two weeks was run the ball, particularly with Harrison Waylee. Waylee got banged up and left early, returning a bit later. That limited his impact somewhat; even so 34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 per) might mean something. His compatriots didn't do much better.
Michigan did this without leaning too heavily on its starters. Michigan substituted rampantly even in the first half: Jenkins, Jeter, Whittley, Mullings, Colson, Morris, and Harrell all got significant numbers of snaps, with no or little discernible dropoff.
File in the same bin the OL is in. Aside from one obvious coverage bust—probably Josh Ross not following the TE in the flat—on the NIU FG drive Michigan got through another game without seemingly like they were higgeldy-piggeldy because they're implementing a new system.
The limitations of the NIU passing game factor in here, but I mean… Rocky Lombardi seems about as likely to hit a 30 yard pass as a 7 yard one so unless the NIU gameplan was real bad I'd imagine the lack of any shots anywhere beyond the sticks was at least partially a function of the defense disguising what they were doing and forcing checkdowns. I'm still concerned about what's going to happen when Michigan runs into some top-shelf wide receivers, something that might not happen until… Penn State?
Lombardi did Lombardi things. He dropped down the MAC level because he's not at all accurate, and he missed a half dozen relatively easy throws that could have set up third and short. This was a relief in the moment but makes discussion of the pass defense difficult because there wasn't a whole lot to go on, coverage wise, outside of a few well-defended slants.
Harrell's got to check his six some. He seems to be too eager to get after the running back; the early Lombardi keeper on the FG drive was an easy read with Harrell turning his hips and flying into a blocker at high speed.
SPECIAL TEAMS
[Campredon]
All right yeah you can keep doing this. AJ Henning has the job:
If M can take punt return back to a strength this could be the top special teams unit in the country.
Congratulations Brad Robbins. I think 0/0 is infinity so congrats on the best punting game in the history of football.
Boo! One point to the crowd for vociferously booing NIU fair catches on kickoffs.
MISCELLANEOUS
On the move up. Michigan's surge in the ranking systems is unusual. Here's a list of risers and fallers:
Teams whose ratings have changed the most (good or bad) since the preseason projections. There's a chance OU still runs away with the Big 12, but with K-State & Tech trending up, we've got SEVEN teams between 22nd and 48th. Odds of a logjam of 6-3 teams tied for first: >0%. pic.twitter.com/f9rfIe4r70
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 19, 2021
Note that there's a huge gap between Michigan's preseason rating and anyone else on this list. The #2 team here by preseason expectations, Kansas State, ranked 61st. Michigan was 17th. It's a lot harder to exceed expectations by that much when your expectations are already pretty high.
What are we doing here? You're NIU, you've given up 50 points to Wyoming, it's 7-0 against Michigan in the first quarter and you've got a fourth and two from the three. Go for it! You're not here to put up a first quarter Sad Field Goal (TM Dave). I mean, you are. But you shouldn't.
I was going to have a second rant after NIU pulled out the ol' Do A Bunch Of Motion And Then Call Timeout play, but they went for it afterwards.
HERE
Alex's game column:
The only other notable storyline in this game was Michigan's use of a laundry list of reserves. JJ McCarthy took over at halftime with the rest of the first string offense. He went 4/6 for 42 yards. The rest of the second string offense came on shortly after, including a backup offensive line of Karsen Barnhart, Chuck Filiaga, Greg Crippen, Reece Atteberry, and Trente Jones (left to right). Donovan Edwards had 8 carries for 86 yards and two scores. Christian Dixon had one catch for seven yards. On defense, such names as Makari Paige, Michael Barrett, Rod Moore, Taylor Upshaw, George Johnson III, and Caden Kolesar got extensive time, before even more obscure walk-ons took the field in the fourth quarter.
And yet, after approximately one quarter of the college football season has been played, Michigan is currently 6th in the nation in yards per play, sporting an impressive 7.88 average. That ranks ahead of of the likes of Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama. And they’re 4th in the nation in plays of more than 40 yards and #1 in plays over 50 yards, 60, 70, and 80 yards. And they’re only 3 yards to Johnson away from being #1 in plays over 90 yards. By any metric, this is one of the most explosive offenses in America, highlighted this week by Michigan scoring touchdowns on their first 9 (!) drives of the game, 8 of them on the ground.
Anatomy of the double move. State of our open threads.
ELSEWHERE
Bill Connelly put out a bold predictions post that reads like his version of our RAW TAKE podcast segment (selections: FSU is going 2-10, Washington will win the Pac-12, etc.). Michigan shows up in an assertion that two non-OSU Big Ten teams will make the playoff:
The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.
Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa. … But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.
Also, we've got a potentially historic version of GopherWatch this year as UConn competes with a couple of teams from the 1920s to be the worst D-1 school ever.
Also in (slightly) historic:
Saturday's game at Michigan is the first time since the 2006 Louisville game that Rutgers is involved in a matchup of teams 3-0 or better.
— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 20, 2021
Maize and Blue Nation. Maize and Brew. MVictors on Jerry Green.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
This point gets lost all of the time. Football is supposed to be enjoyable to watch and play.
I want a Big Ten and National Championship as much as any long suffering Michigan fan. But, I also love watching well executed football without being concerned about the next team on the schedule or the moderate psychic benefit to investing early in loss angst.
We have seen some really good football from Michigan in 2021. It can be enjoyed sui generis.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
I will enjoy one more semi-gimme game (I predict M 34. Rutger 17) and then await the onset of Bpone, which should arrive sometime Sunday morning. Welcome back, dear friend.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^
Great point. I talked to an old friend and tried to speculate on "what does it mean??" after the last couple of games. He had the perfect response - "I don't care - I just had fun watching these games."
I think that's something that has been lost over the years, especially as we've moved from the Rose Bowl objective to requiring a perfect season or else - in the era of OSU being their most dominant in their history. It is harder to enjoy yourself at one game without mapping out the trajectory of the future games.
Michigan kicked ass, played well, looked impressive, and seemed both organized and exciting while doing it. Let's enjoy it week to week and hope it continues!
September 20th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
especially as we've moved from the Rose Bowl objective to requiring a perfect season or else
This is one of the biggest reasons I've advocated a playoff system that automatically includes P5 conference champions, regardless of overall record, plus at least three at-large spots.
September 20th, 2021 at 5:36 PM ^
Thats more than 2 cents worth...its the way I've felt from the opening kickoff of the season. Enjoy these games...we are only a few months away from empty stadiums and a completely broken team.
Too many people looking for reason to poke themselves in the eye instead of just enjoying the wins. The team has looked fantastic...period. There will be bumps in the road, loses likely (no one should expect an undefeated season and thats true for 99% of the teams) and it will feel like crap...that day will come so why not enjoy the hell out of these absolutely beautiful wins (minus the R. Bell injury).
September 20th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
Amen.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
Coach Hammock lost his team in the first quarter with his sad field goal attempt. You could see it on his players faces. He didn't trust them to get a yard or two when it was already clear that fg's weren't going to win you the game.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:41 PM ^
It was 7-0. You, Brian and anyone else who think it wasn't just fine to kick that FG are out of your fecking mind. You people do not know more about football than football coaches.
They had no idea Michigan would score every single time they had the ball. They had come back from 29 down the week before to take the lead. They had moved the ball fairly competently on us.
"Take the points, there are more where that come from" was exactly what he was thinking, and I was perfectly OK with that.
20 minutes later it was over, but he had no idea that was coming at the time he sent the FG team out.
September 20th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
When you are a heavy underdog on the road you play aggressive.
September 20th, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Seems legit. The Fox sideline reporter said Lombardi told his team that the FG attempt was ok because NIU's offense was going to be able to move the ball on Michigan "all day."
September 20th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Under the theory that you shouldn’t do what makes your opponent happy, he was right to kick the field goal. We all wanted them to go for it to give us a chance to preserve the shutout. He got points on the board. Unfortunately for them, the next points took a long time coming.
September 20th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^
Yep, take the points and get your defense ready. I think the coach was crazy for not airing it out and challenging our secondary more, I mean did he watch tape of Lombardi last year? Lots of running plays called on 3rd and long were the real head scratchers for me.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
What about going for 7 points and short of that giving your defense 96 yards to work against an offense pinned at their own goal line?
September 20th, 2021 at 5:04 PM ^
Agree to disagree. If I just gave up 50 to Wyoming, I'm not playing for field goals while trying to pull off a big upset on the road.
September 21st, 2021 at 7:26 AM ^
man, i’m not seeing it. they had us on our heels…the field goal allowed us to catch our breath and get back to work in a neutral position. i think a touchdown - or starting the next drive on our own 2, for that matter - makes us tighten up.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
That 2006 Rutgers Louisville game was probably the high point for Rutgers football. Ever. Also last if the two year period where we considered if the new Big East was for real.
Also, i don't think 2021 is crazy. 2020 is the anomaly. It was a season where we didn't have the full team ever practice together. We know other schools did - cue Ryan Day's "I'm going to drop 100 on em." I think it's a pretty simple explanation of why 2020 is the anomaly, and 2021 is more in line with 2015-2019. And also the D is very different. But Yea I'll believe it if we win in MadTown.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
"That 2006 Rutgers Louisville game was probably the high point for Rutgers football. Ever."
Except Rutger claims a national title in 1869, so some sort of high point(s) that could compete with the 2006 Louisville game for highest point must have occurred 152 years ago.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:00 PM ^
Fair but there were like 500 people in New Jersey that cared about football at the time and Harvard and Yale don't believe that counts. I think rising to the top 10/130 is still higher than being #1/2
September 20th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
I don't disagree. I was just making funnies.
September 20th, 2021 at 6:40 PM ^
I was trying to too. I think i failed. I feel like Rutger.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
In the podcast, Brian admits that the lack of chaos and stupidity this year, especially with the OL, correlate with him backing off things like UFR responsibilities. It was Brian, man. It was Brian who put us through all those years of wandering the desert. J'accuse, Monsieur Cook!
Is it too early to start talking reparations?
Also, re: SP+, this quote from Connelly was already posted in the thread over the weekend but it's too good not to throw up again:
Q. Do you ever have a moment where you are at odds with your SP+ just as a fan? Where you just look at the numbers and go "come on man, this can't be."
Connelly: You mean like when it has Michigan 6th? Michigan's the best example right now. They've absolutely looked great for two weeks. Don't know if they can pass, which will probably be a thing at some point, but we know that they've looked really good so far and Western Michigan is not terrible. Washington, eh, we'll see what they have to offer exactly. But they've looked undeniably good and they've moved up in SP+ and I just wish they hadn't. And the funny thing is that Michigan fans wish they hadn't. No fan fan base yells at me as much for liking their team more than Michigan does, and I kind of get it because we know what could happen next.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
It was Brian, man. It was Brian who put us through all those years of wandering the desert. J'accuse, Monsieur Cook!
My own competing silly narrative is that Brian will be the Tyler Trent of 2021.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:05 PM ^
It was Brian, man. It was Brian who put us through all those years of wandering the desert.
Hey, that's a great point! Didn't he start the blog in 2004? Then:
- 2005 was The Year of Infinite Pain
- 2006 was the death of Bo
- 2007 was The Horror
- 2008 was...well, you know the rest.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
IIRC, he started it right after the 2004 season ended, too...
September 20th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
December 4th, 2004 to be precise:
September 20th, 2021 at 2:06 PM ^
hopeful but cautious
September 20th, 2021 at 2:07 PM ^
Am I crazy or is it rare to see a lineman counter like Vastardis did on this play? I don't know that I remember seeing a lineman look like he's run blocking one direction for a few steps, then pivot and lead block the other way
September 20th, 2021 at 2:55 PM ^
His performance is one of the ones I'm most interested in watching the next few weeks. He went from "hoping we replace him" to "let's call plays where we want him to block one way, reverse field, and beat our fast running back to the edge so he can block a DB." WTH man....nice job!
September 20th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
That play is a NFL Center type of play, not a CFB Center type of play.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
Go back and watch the old Joe Gibbs Washington [TEAM NAME REDACTED] offenses from the 80's through early 90's. Counter Trey all day, every way. Master class in having mobile linemen that can execute those type of things. Love that offense especially when it reached it's peak in 1991-92 where Gibbs figured out how to run the 1 TE / 3 WR / 1 RB offense. Perfect balance of being able to knock you around on the ground and just when you commit to stopping the run, Ricky Sanders, or Gary Clark could take the top off your defense while Art Monk was open for 15-20 yard crossing routes in the middle of the field.
September 20th, 2021 at 11:11 PM ^
We have the rushing attack (caveats apply, of course), and Cade can throw the deep shot. I would REALLY like to see the 15-yard cross. I want him to be able to throw it, and perhaps more importantly, I want the coaches to be confident enough in him to call that play.
Now we've seen the 20+ yard seam throw (against NIU, to All), which is a step in the right direction.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:48 PM ^
Exactly why I had a man-crush on Ruiz and thought he was unequivocally the best lineman (after a few games of seasoning) we had while he was here. It ain't easy being tasked with Center duties and also pulling and otherwise not being where the D expects to see you. Ruiz was bigger and more mobile than Vastardis imho.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
McCarthy needs to learn how to slide. Don't want to see him get wacked on a run like McCaffery.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Brian captured my feelings too. What a weird place to be as a fan base. Many of us entered the season expecting to suck and to shove this regime out of town before the end of the season. Now after 3 games it appears that we don't suck and might actually be good....but we have years of data telling us to hedge our excitement and expectations.
What I come back to is this - all of the games that really scared us before the season are still yet to be played. I was slightly optimistic at 8-4 (mostly out of hope, not logic) and in that projection I assumed we'd start 4-0. So what's changed really from those marginal pre-season predictions? The next 9 games are likely to end 6-3 more than they are 8-1.....so Brian is right to be cautious and we should listen.
But......what we're seeing with our own eyes is trying to flip the narrative. Sure, all the games were at home against lesser teams. But if you were to write a script that ended with us in a 2016-like season, what would you have written different about these first three games? Blow out lesser teams and look great doing it - done. I guess you probably wouldn't have written a script where Bell gets hurt and you might have included a 250-yard game for Cade. Otherwise? Pretty spot on. I'm going to hold my expectations in check for now......I am also shopping for tickets to the Wisconsin game.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
To me there's a couple of things that changed - this team's 3-0 has looked good. We beat the bad teams in 2017 and 2019 early but struggled to do it. We still may go 6-3 to close out the year, road trips to Madison and Happy Valley don't engender much confidence. But the other thing is our "years of data" show Harbaugh teams as generally 10 win outfits that cannot win the big one, the major exception being the Covid impacted 2020 when the team couldn't practice together. I wonder if we over corrected our expectations because of a fluky year.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Part of those expectations is based on the players available during the seasons where it was possible to win big. In 2016, Speight got injured and still couldn't throw the ball beyond 20 yards in the air against OSU. That's a big, wet towel dropped on your offense... They lost Peppers a minute before the Orange Bowl, and Butt during it. Add two more towels...
2017 featured John O'Korn. Give us a serviceable QB and my money says we beat OSU.
2019 was Patterson letting us down. I don't think that team was as good as 2016-2017, but the defense and run game proved able against Bama (and the first half against OSU). Repeated Patterson pass attempts (and failed reads) sank that team...
I won't say this years team is as fully capable as those previous teams, but I also cannot identify any one weak area to call out. There is reason for optimism here, more than there is reason for pessimism...
September 20th, 2021 at 3:03 PM ^
2017 was the line, that's the reason we got to OKorn. And 2019 i think was more on Gattis than Shea. But they did look damn good in October and November until...it looked exactly like 2018 all over again.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
We definitely over-corrected after last year - especially considering the issues with the B10 scheduling and then so many players just opting out at the last minute that were expected to play critical roles - Nico, Ambry, Mayfield*, etc.
It is also a result of ending the seasons against OSU in such miserable fashion and leaving a bad taste in our mouth. They can literally do no wrong unless they're in the playoff against one of the other two elite teams. Meanwhile we scuffled a bit with recruiting and PR, end on a sour note against a rival, had last year fall apart, and were ready to give up.
I still think 6-3 is more likely than 8-1 the rest of the way, but if we finish with 10 wins and are competitive in those games? Hard not to call this a great season even if we're not in the playoff.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:12 PM ^
thanks for the jerry green bump. i was absolutely delighted to see him, delighted that he was escorted on the field by ronnie bell (sans crutches, btw).
September 20th, 2021 at 4:44 PM ^
Guys like Bell and Haskins keep me coming back every year and keep me a Michigan fan no matter the record. Maybe every team has guys like them, but I just love seeing good genuine people like them. Even my wife noticed Bell out there with (that old guy) and commented.
I'd keep Harbaugh around the program forever if just to keep recruiting good kids who turn into good men (for the most part).
September 20th, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
It’s usually easier to write interesting negative stuff than positive stuff. So congrats, Brian, for writing interesting positive stuff.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
Me: "This is interesting, and I love interesting. But three data points are an insignificant sample. Let's observe the subject a bit more, see if we can replicate these results in more varied conditions such as bombarded with high-energy Madison particles, bathed in a East-Lansing Condensate, or perhaps in a pressurized vapor of State College.
The "silent majority", I'm sure: "WHY DO MICHIGAN FANS KEEP BELITTLING THE TEAM!"
September 20th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Nerd.
Signed, an insolent unsilent minority
September 20th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
The regular season has 12 data points per team (Hawaii opponents excluded), and 3 of 12 is hardly insignificant. They may be the 3 most unreliable data points of the season, but they matter.
September 21st, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
Even all 12 is somewhat insignificant in a predictive sense.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:22 PM ^
Great stuff Brian.
Really encapsulates where I am currently as well.
I want to believe, but promised myself that I wouldn't take things to seriously...it is a game played by recent HS grads after all. That counts for being negative, but also not getting overly positive either.
Trying to be as balanced as possible this year and just enjoying football for its entertainment value.
So far, so good.
September 20th, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
I agree with your sentiment.
Perhaps we, the collective "wolverine nation", needed/needs to be humbled and relearn how to just enjoy watching our favorite team play on Saturdays again before the curse of BPONE can be lifted. I, for one, will resist the urge to start thinking about Indy or Playoffs until they actually occur (whenever that may be) and will just enjoy the games one week at a time in the meantime.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
Michigan won’t always look THIS dominant, and there are so many potentially heart-breaking games left to play. But as you allude to in this piece, looking crisp, ready to play, and all-around well-coached is NEVER something to take for granted. Harbaugh has had 9-10 win teams that didn’t look sharp to start the season. Simply looking like one of the best prepared teams in all of CFB is a big deal
September 20th, 2021 at 2:32 PM ^
In 2015, 2016 and 2018 we toasted the mid.majors, and in 2016 comfortably beat the pac12 south co-champ. In 2017 and 2019, we struggled with the likes of Ciny, Air Force and Army. I think looking good in the non conference should portend good things, but also the Big Tent East looks more xomoetitive this year and we've got Wisconsin and Penn State on the road
I'm excited. I think we are good. I don't think we are contenders for the Big Tent East until we beat Somebody.
September 20th, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
In 2018, the team came out flat and incompetent against ND, and an offensive line that would end up being good looked wretched. Now, of course, 2018 ND was better than anyone we’ve played so far. But it’s more about how we look—very few mistakes, tons of stuff installed on both sides of the ball, making the most of the talent on the roster, etc. No idea how the rest of the season will play out, but this is easily the sharpest, most consistent, and best-coached I remember a Harbaugh team looking early in the season.
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