jaylen harrell

Tonight the football world turns its attention to downtown Detroit and the 2024 NFL Draft. Over the years of the Jim Harbaugh era we've grown accustomed to Michigan to having quite a few players drafted, but the next three days has the opportunity to be historic. Harbaugh himself was talking up the possibility of Michigan setting NFL Draft records in 2024 last summer and now with only a few hours to Draft Day, it remains plausible. Georgia's 2022 draft remains the record, with 15 players taken off the Bulldogs' national title winning roster. Can Michigan tie, or exceed 15? Today we'll go through each player, their chances of getting drafted, and what NFL Draft scouts are saying about the heroes from Team 144: 

Certain to be drafted (7)

JJ McCarthy

Consensus Big Board ranking: 23 

Likely Draft Day: Thursday  

What scouts are saying: In all likelihood, the first Wolverine off the board will be the QB, JJ McCarthy. Where exactly he goes is up in the air, as it could be as high as #2 (theoretically) and could be somewhere in the teens. The consensus of scouts seems to be more bearish on McCarthy when it comes to actually ranking him, as the consensus big board puts him 23rd, but the sense is that because QB is a premium position, JJ will go higher than that in the actual draft. 

Scouts seem to like McCarthy's athleticism, intangibles/leadership, and arm talent (velocity and accuracy). His winning ways in both high school and college, in addition to his raw tools and mobility as a passer are certainly tantalizing. However, McCarthy's reads and decision-making are seen as areas for uncertainty. The low volume of throws that JJ has made over his Michigan career relative to some of the other top quarterbacks are another example of that uncertainty, a bit more of a mystery component than other QBs posses. Some suggest that it may be best for JJ to sit a year behind an experienced QB, while he continues to develop as a QB reading through his progressions. We shall see whether whichever team inevitably drafts McCarthy in the first round has that plan in mind. 

Kris Jenkins

Consensus Big Board ranking: 49

Likely Draft Day: Friday

What scouts are saying: Jenkins has been on NFL Draft radars for several years now and he seems likely to follow Mazi Smith's path into the league. Smith was drafted 26th in last year's draft, a bit higher than anticipated, but Jenkins' profile and projected ranking is in a similar ballpark. Good, and among the best DTs in the class, but perhaps not an elite stud a la Byron Murphy II or Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton. Jenkins generally falls in that second tier of tackles after Murphy and Newton, alongside Ohio State's Michael Hall Jr. and Florida State's (formerly WMU's) Braden Fiske.  

Jenkins' profile is a bit of an unsexy one to a lot of scouts, but with some safe projection. Like most Michigan players, he's lauded for his work ethic and intangibles, the sort of guy NFL teams want to draft. His run defense generally gets favorable reviews from scouts and he graded out very well athletically at the NFL combine. There's also more safety in Kris Jenkins' NFL pedigree through his father, even though the two are built rather differently. Jenkins' counting stat production and general pass rush is what grades out a bit more negatively to scouts, wondering if he has that explosive, home run upside. Still, for teams looking to beef up the D-Line with a safe run stopper who may still have upside to explore (remember Jenkins' body transformation at Michigan), Jenkins is a solid bet and I'd expect him to go in the 2nd round on Friday night. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: all the other guys]

FORMATION NOTES: The UFR Glossary is here and you may want to brush up because DeBoer made me bring out rare formations like a true under-center Single-Wing, and weird notations like Z->Y means the WR and TE have switches spots. This is the Go Go setup (aka Single-Wing RB) that UNLV was running way back in September.

I put covered players in parentheses, but Washington also managed to get away with some illegal formations where nobody was covered, in which case I just put a question mark in there, e.g. Go Go Right (?).

"Hide H" was a trick where Rome Odunze hid out at tight end and got M to align in a mismatch. That's him trying not to be noticed as the H-back on the top of the formation (where all the Michigan players are pointing).

I'm using "Flex" for a TE split out wide for a 2x2 set. "Demi" means the TE isn't tight but neither is he in the slot (see #37 on the left). Also we were treated to a skycam version of this game, so I can provide a few canonical examples of terms we're often flinging around, and some new ones. Michigan in the above is in an G front, which means the nose is head up over the guard. Sometimes he was over the tackle, which I call Wide, where the DT is lined up over a tackle.

Letters or numbers (A, AA, 0) in the defensive front that means they've added LBs on the line of scrimmage in that alignment (A gap, both A gaps, head up on the center, etc). Another nuance I can capture with greater accuracy than usual is the difference between Kirby Smart's "Mint" front and a true 404 where the DL are heads up on the tackles—I think a lot of the Tites I charted this year were actually Mint. Michigan got creative too. This is "Crable":

I'll also try to note in the text when Michigan used sim pressures, since that's going to be relevant.

[After THE JUMP: Winning a natty.]

UFR GLOSSARY is here.

FORMATION NOTES: There's no way for me show them all. Here's Eagle Zero:

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Slight tightening of the rotations. Graham and Derrick Moore had the most snaps of the DL, with Jenkins, Grant, Stewart, Harrell out there about half the time, McGregor a bit less, a couple drives of Benny and Goode. LBs were mostly Colson and Barrett, with a dozen snaps for Hausmann in place of Colson and two disastrous snaps for Jimmy Rolder. Rod Moore went the whole way (no Sabb) with Paige giving a quarter of his snaps to Q-Jo. Will Johnson came off a snap after the one he overran Harrison; McBurrows got some nickel time before that, and M put Sainristil outside when Johnson went out.

VIDEO NOTES: In recent weeks Fox has been abusing YouTube's awful policies for copyright control to harass anyone with clips from the game without regard to Fair Use. The best you can do is dispute the claim and wait 7 days for them to even bother to check if they violated the law when they blindly issued a strike on your account, and then if Fox denies your dispute you have to escalate to the legal system. This is the plan, and we've been through it before, but it's not very conducive to visual aids in an article that comes out a few days after the game. I put some of the clips on Streamable and will move others over if Fox issues further strikes.

[After THE JUMP: The Greatest Game of Football Ever Played.]