Basketbullets Examines 2021-22 Lineup Possibilities
On Monday I took a look at the potential returners and departures from this year's roster as well as possible offseason additions. One longshot came off the board yesterday when five-star 2021 center Charles Bediako committed to Alabama. [ALMOST IMMEDIATE UPDATE: Mike Smith announced on his Instagram that he's not coming back and will enter the NBA Draft. A full post is coming shortly.]
Most everything else is still on the table. Sam Webb even added a scenario I'd dismissed as unlikely in a quick note:
I still expect Michigan to be active in the portal, but I expect the focus lead guard help to be the focus. And that’s even if they get Eli Brooks or Mike Smith back (I haven’t received word on either yet).
I've seen a couple insider-y message board posts (which I now cannot locate, I apologize) that suggested Minnesota's All-Big Ten point guard Marcus Carr isn't going to be a Michigan target. There are still a lot of intriguing lead guard options out there. Your guess is as good as mine regarding possible transfer additions at the moment, though that process can move fast, as we saw last year with Mike Smith. (It took a little longer to get Chaundee Brown on board.)
Now that we have a handle on the many ways the roster can take shape, it's time examine the potential lineup combinations and how they project to fare. Let's get this over with: any realistic roster projection for next season doesn't include Isaiah Livers or Franz Wagner, or at least that's how we're going to protect ourselves from disappointment.
To avoid confusion, I'm referring to the five players who've already played their senior year but have the option to return without counting against the scholarship limit as "super seniors," while Brandon Johns and Adrien Nunez are the two regular seniors.
Two Super Seniors, No Grad Transfer
Point? [Campredon]
It's sounding more and more realistic to expect at least one senior to utilize the extra year of eligibility. 247 hoops insider Dotman has dropped hints that both Eli Brooks and Chaundee Brown could be back for another season. The Wolverine's staff is also mentioning that possibility. Let's start with that scenario: every other super senior leaves, as does Wagner, and Juwan Howard decides not to hit the transfer market.
Here's one way that roster's depth chart could look, keeping in mind that most of the roster is capable of playing multiple positions, including the entire starting lineup outside of Hunter Dickinson:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
E. Brooks | C. Brown | C. Houstan | B. Johns | H. Dickinson |
Z. Jackson | K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | T. Williams | M. Diabate |
F. Collins | A. Nunez | J. Howard | W. Tschetter |
[Hit THE JUMP for this group's outlook and several more lineup combos.]
Strengths: There's plenty of experience in this group and a whole lot of size. Howard can throw out some different looks up front with Dickinson/Diabate/Johns/Williams. If one of the young guards—whether it be Zeb Jackson, Frankie Collins, or Kobe Bufkin—emerges as a viable starter, Chaundee Brown can slide into a sixth man role or start over Caleb Houstan at small forward. Either way the team would have some serious scoring punch coming off the bench.
Weaknesses: Is Eli Brooks a true point guard? He's never quite been that level of playmaker in his career. The team may end up short on perimeter shot creation if Jackson doesn't break through or Collins isn't ready to play a huge role right away. While they're plenty talented up front, they lack a traditional center aside from Dickinson, and Moussa Diabate is probably going to be more impactful on defense as a four than a five at around 6'10/220.
Outlook: A lot hinges on Houstan's ability to be a high-level scorer right away, which I believe he's more than capable of doing. This would be a really good defensive team that may be a top-end distributor away from having an elite offense. A Big Ten contender, to be sure, but perhaps not a national one.
Replace Brooks with Smith and you answer the distributor issue but open up some questions about the perimeter defense.
Three Super Seniors, No Grad Transfer
there's always room for a productive center [Campredon]
A similar outcome that looks to be on the table is Austin Davis also coming back, which redistributes the frontcourt minutes a bit and could very well make room for Diabate to start at power forward if he doesn't also have to be the primary backup center. (The Big Minutes Brandon Johns believer in me feels conflicted about this; it's a good problem to have.)
Just for fun, I've moved this depth chart around to show the Zeb Jackson breakout scenario:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
Z. Jackson | E. Brooks | C. Houstan | B. Johns | H. Dickinson |
F. Collins | C. Brown | T. Williams | M. Diabate | A. Davis |
K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | W. Tschetter | ||
A. Nunez | J. Howard |
Strengths: Same as the previous section, but now add more frontcourt depth and flexibility that opens up a lot of possibilities for Howard. Johns shoots well enough that he could conceivably be a small forward in some truly massive lineups that could be dominant on defense.
Weaknesses: Same as previous minus the big man stuff.
Outlook: The added depth and versatility raises the ceiling on the team a bit, in large part because they'd be in much better position to overcome an injury in the frontcourt.
One Super Senior, Transfer Guard
it'd be nice if these started dropping [Campredon]
If Michigan is going after a lead guard in the transfer portal, I'm assuming a Mike Smith situation where that player steps right in as the starting point guard. That also fits well with Brooks as the most likely of the super seniors to come back; he can reprise his role as an off-ball glue guy and part-time offensive initiator, which best fits his game.
It's easy to add in other super seniors and go "yes, this makes the team better," so let's stick with Brooks as the only returner among the five in this scenario:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
TRANSFER | E. Brooks | C. Houstan | B. Johns | H. Dickinson |
Z. Jackson | K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | T. Williams | M. Diabate |
F. Collins | A. Nunez | J. Howard | W. Tschetter |
Strengths: Assuming the transfer is at least a decent Big Ten starter (not always safe, I realize, though one of the young guards could also emerge), Brooks would be able to play his natural position. As long as one of the young guards is functional as a backup, the backcourt will be a strength, and the team starts looking pretty similar to this year's.
Weaknesses: Diabate (or Johns) would be a great sixth man in a different way than Chaundee Brown, but the bench is very green and may lack scoring punch—this group might need Terrance Williams to start hitting jumpers. Like with the first scenario, the team is also a little thin in the frontcourt.
Outlook: A lot rides on which transfer signs up, of course, but guaranteeing Brooks can reprise his role would be huge. This group may need too much adjustment time to win a conference title but if the young players have a solid improvement curve during the season and the transfer point guard settles in late like Smith did, it's not a team anyone would want to face when rotations get tighter in the postseason.
No Super Seniors, Transfer Time
I'm starting to really like the idea of these super seniors:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
TRANSFER | Z. Jackson | C. Houstan | B. Johns | H. Dickinson |
F. Collins | K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | M. Diabate | TRANSFER |
A. Nunez | J. Howard | T. Williams | W. Tschetter |
Strengths: Any team with two five-star recruits joining Hunter Dickinson in the frontcourt is going to be pretty good.
Weaknesses: Total turnover of the starting backcourt plus losing Brown raises a lot of questions about playmaking, scoring, and defense, in addition to depth. If the team has to run most of its offense through the post, there's a cap on how effective they'll be.
Outlook: This might need to be an elite defensive team to make up for some offensive shortcomings, at least to contend for the Big Ten again, and having to rely on unproven guards and possibly an up-transfer from a mid-major puts their ability to shut down opponents into question.
The Worst Case, I Hope
I'll preface this one by saying it's unlikely to happen, but also that if I didn't at least mention the slim possibility that none of the super seniors come back and the team suffers the most brutal loss it could, the universe would surely respond with evil laughter. Here's what it'd look like if Dickinson went pro and Michigan's attempts to strike gold in the portal only result in backup-quality players:
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
F. Collins | Z. Jackson | C. Houstan | B. Johns | M. Diabate |
TRANSFER | K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | T. Williams | TRANSFER |
A. Nunez | J. Howard | W. Tschetter |
Strengths: Honestly? There are much worse situations than having to watch the #1 class in the country learn on the fly. This starting lineup would be very athletic and switchable. They could be a surprisingly good defensive squad despite their youth.
Weaknesses: Very thin. Very young. Could run into serious trouble against Big Ten centers. Might not have enough shooting outside of Houstan.
Outlook: A fun young team but probably not one that's going to make another Elite Eight run.
Fine, Let's Imagine The Roster of Doom
please oh please oh please [Campredon]
If I did the above, I'm also doing this thought exercise, which I couldn't even commit to entirely because to fill out the depth chart I felt compelled to free Brandon Johns, because...
PG | SG | SF | PF | C |
---|---|---|---|---|
M. Smith | E. Brooks | F. Wagner | I. Livers | H. Dickinson |
Z. Jackson | C. Brown | C. Houstan | M. Diabate | A. Davis |
F. Collins | K. Bufkin | I. Barnes | T. Williams | W. Tschetter |
A. Nunez | J. Howard |
...lol.
Strengths: Burning down the countryside
Weaknesses: lmao
Outlook: Banners
If everyone comes back, I don't see how that isn't a national championship team. An entire lineup of starters in their second year playing together...with a center who's likely to add to his offensive repertoire.
Scary for the rest of the Big Ten and the country!
Eh, slow down.
You're replacing Livers and Wagner with Johns and Houstan.
I think we'll be fine, but we're in no position to assume that today.
We have no idea what Houstan is going to be but Wagner had a dominant 2nd half of the season. Livers has been the MVP for 2 years and we KNOW Johns isn't giving us that.
...wait, when you say everybody, do you mean EVERYBODY?! Even the guys we know are gone (Wagner, Livers and now Smith). Because sure, in some fantasy world where those guys came back, hell yeah we're a Final Four team from day one.
But that's not happening.
Who is point guard M Davis in the roster of doom? A favorite transfer of yours?
Ace - could you put odds on which is most likely to happen.
Edit: what I meant with odds was percentages. Obviously he stated a bit of the odds in his write up, but not likelihood in terms of percent chance that this might happen.
This team needs at least one guy who can create his own shot off the dribble because every team needs that guy. That guy isn't Brooks. It could be one of the young guys or a transfer, but you can't build a truly elite team without that.
Agree.
You need one guard who can take over a game with his scoring because there's bound to be that one game where shit just goes sideways.
There's a rumor out there that we're trying to snag Rutgers grad transfer Jacob Young. He's already pretty damn good but I think he would be BEASTLY under Juwan Howard.
Should be M. Smith, not M. Davis, in the last depth chart.
The last scenario obviously isn't happening but I do think we might be dismissing the idea that Livers returns a little too quickly. The dude can't return until October and there is a good chance that no NBA team wants to take a chance on him because of that. Why wouldn't he want to return and potentially play himself back into the draft?
My scenario is him getting paid for his NIL rights and leaving a legacy far beyond the games. I think if he could make that happen, he'd consider a return.
Otherwise, go get paid, young man, whether here or abroad. And, thank you.
Smith not coming back. https://www.instagram.com/p/CNX4tcEA_8f/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
Yeah that's about as official as it gets. Straight from his own Instagram account. I wish him well, as I'm sure we all do.
Eli could surprise at PG. Towards the end he seemed to be better equiped to force the ball into the post than Mike. There were several times where Hunter ran the pick and roll, it was open, and he didn't get the ball. Eli was able to skip passes into the post when Mike was out. Long term???
Agree. Eli could surprise. His left-handed passing looked increasingly crisp as the year wore on, and ostensibly he comes back, if he does, to show future pro teams that his skill set is wider than to now demonstrated. Running the pick and roll?
Eh. Terrance Williams can feed the post. The PG needs to do more than that.
I know it's just for kicks, but that Roster of Doom team could swap out Davis at center for Johns and hold up just as well, if not better.
just came here to cap off that last roster with TROGDORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!
The biggest question marks appear to be in the back court. Apparently, Smith just opted to go pro. That leaves Zeb Jackson as the heir apparent as starting point guard. He seems ultra talented but still untested with few minutes this year. I think he will likely make a sophomore jump if he gets the minutes. But we don't know for sure. We would need him to click as distributor/playmaker and one of the freshman to be a capable backup. If Brooks comes back, he could fill that role to a degree but we really need an elite point. We need shooters to fill in for likely departees Livers and Wagner. But again, we need Zeb and/or a freshman guard to be capable outside shooters.
So a transfer is a real possibility with these question marks and inexperience in the back court. Unless Brooks and Brown both come back.
The front court looks set barring the unexpected. I really hope Johns gets the minutes as a starter. He seems ready to assume a larger role and likely will make some great strides with game experience.
It'd obviously be nice to have an elite point guard, but I think we'd be fine with just a competent game manager, especially if Dickinson continues to progress as a passer and we surround him with shooters. Brooks is more than capable of getting the ball up court and feeding the post, and he's an excellent defender against opposing points. If the expected guys come back and we get a little playmaking out of the freshmen, I think we could definitely be a Final Four team with Brooks at the point.
FWIW, Sam Webb thinks the starting guards will be Collins and Brooks if Eli comes back. Collins is apparently more ready to step in at PG than Zeb.
Finally someone gets it. Collins is the real deal. Zeb is a ball of potential (just like Johns for 3 years).
Collins has 'it'. He is a stud, and a good shooting stroke away from being a 5* top 20.
His hustle, playmaking and athletic ability are absurd. He will be an amazing PG here.
I totally agree about Frankie. He's got way more potential at point guard than Eli (and I love Eli) or Zeb. I don't see them keeping Collins off the court. Sure there will be some growing pains. But late in the season he could pop some eyes.
Interesting to hear. Jackson didn’t show much at all during 1 year on campus. Collins looks very talented in terms of athleticism, ball handling, passing, defense. Not sure about his scoring and shooting range, but he looks to be a next level player compared to Jackson to my amateur eye.
My best case scenario is a transfer true point guard with Brooks & Chaundee coming back.
That would most likely put us top 3 in B1G and Top 10 Nationally.
Yes but I think Brooks and Chaundee alone put us top 3 in B1G and Top 10 nationally.
OK, Good point and I can agree with that. I still think we still need a distributor, shot creator & press breaker @ PG to be elite. I love Zeb, but not sure if he's there yet.
I assume the amended roster of doom (since we know Mike Smith is on to the NBA -- Bon Voyage!) has Eli Brooks as the PG and Chaundee as the starting 2? Or do we get to play the hypothetical transfer PG card (Max Abmas?). Is this a MAX DOOM roster?
No, I've not heard that Abmas is transferring (nor have I heard that he's not). I do remember a certain MgoPodcast where it was stated something along the lines of -- if Abmas is transferring, I want to find him a spot...
I really really really want Moussa and HD on the floor together for at least a few minutes. The defense would be insane
I think that can be arranged...I am also intrigued by a Moussa and Johns lineup because of the switchability (and the fact that most teams don't have a 5 that would punish that).
Yeah if Cockburn and Garza are gone the number of just massive centers is going way down, and the number of teams with a backup center who is going to give a guy like Johns or Diabate trouble straight physically is basically purdue
Chaundee coming back would be absolutely huge
Time will tell, but I think this article is massively undervaluing Diabate. He has NBA level size and length, very athletic, can guard any position, can protect the rim. can shoot it a bit, can pass a bit, can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket and is going to be a major problem in the paint on both ends. He will be one of if not the most talented players in the conference and a guy that very well might be the best player on the team as the year goes on. I normally do not expect freshman to make a huge impact, but Diabate is a special talent and we have a coach that can get the most out of him. He can absolutely be a game changer.
Agree on Diabate. Great athlete and will be a defensive stopper at the 4. His offensive game is still a work in process IMO but in a lineup with HD, Houstan, Brooks, etc. where he can be a third or fourth scoring option, he will really shine. Also, good chance that his offensive game really develops during his freshman year and will be a matchup problem by the end of the year.
I think offensively he’s a bit raw to be the best player on the team (I think that will be Dickinson). But I’m a full on believer that he’s a defensive game changer from day one. He’s going to be a terror on that end of the floor.
Would Roster of Doom's 3rd Team beat Northwestern though?
Michigan needs a legit true PG from the portal no matter who stays.Eli is not a full time PG.Collins is a Fresh.He may be fine but I wouldn't give the ball to a true fresh.
Yeah, because a freshman at PG didn't work out for Gonzaga too well.
Yes, Suggs is the exception rather than the rule...but Collins is very highly rated.
Zeb Jackson looks to have good handles, speed and athleticism. At this point, it's hard to know if he's a classic PG. But, with Brooks, you'd have two combo guards who can handle the ball...and then Collins who appears to be more of a traditional PG.
He IS the exception to the rule. And even if Collins is great, we'd still be thin at the PG position. Zeb just doesn't look like a PG. So get a transfer.
Frankie Collins is the real deal and going to play good minutes.
One of your lineups is probably wrong. Without Hunter, Johns is probably a 5 not a 4.
You can’t run out a 220 lb 5 in the B1G or you will get destroyed.
Eh....I see your point and I'm not going to argue that Diabate for all of his talents would have been able to deal with Kofi or Garza.
But for 10-15 minutes per game I think he can hold his own against the likes of TJD, Liam Robbins, the Wisconsin duo, the 4-headed monster at MSU, whoever Northwestern calls their center, etc. It won't be ideal, but neither was playing Davis. With AD you get the savvy veteran who's 260 pounds of country strong.....but he can't move or jump or contest shots. With MD you get length, speed, athleticism, switchability, and he's still probably going to be 230 by the time he gets to the first game.
*burninating
Ace - thanks for putting this together even if it is impossible to think through all of this and things are no doubt going to change weekly for a while until things settle down. Overall I think you captured most possibilities. However, I do have a few areas that I slightly disagree....
- I think it would be surprising to see three top-60 recruits all come off the bench and have part time roles. I'm not sure how that plays out - maybe fewer super seniors come back, maybe they don't dip into the portal, maybe Johns doesn't play as much as some of us want/expect.....
- I feel like the MGoCrew is less hyped about Bufkin than I am. He feels closer to plug-and-play than most recruits we've had in recent years and when I see him behind multiple players .... especially Zeb.
- I could almost say the same for Collins. I'm picturing a Curbelo2.0 season for him and see him as being a potential starter and perhaps not needing a grad transfer PG.
- I think Houstan is going to be awesome and hit the court as a starter. But....to call him a "scorer" might be optimistic. I think he's a lot like Livers - which means points but not usage or creation.
- Diabate needs 20mpg easily. He can get 10 of those behind Hunter and probably 10-20 at the 4.
Finally someone who realizes just how talented this freshman class is — probably the best since 1992.
How about 2 or 3 Super Senior's and 1 Grad transfer? Nothing to stop Howard from paying his sons way for a year! Also ins not out of the question that someone that isn't getting any minutes transfer out.
Get one transfer PG, preferably one with size and a shot, and call it a day.
PG: Brooks (25), Collins (15)
SG: Brown (18), Brooks (8), Jackson (8), Bufkin (6)
SF: Houstan (30), Brown (10)
PF: Johns (13), Diabate (15), Williams (12)
C: Dickinson (28), Johns (12)
Brooks: 33 mpg
Houstan: 30 mpg
Brown: 28 mpg
Dickinson: 28 mpg
Johns: 25 mpg
Diabate: 15 mpg
Collins: 15 mpg
Williams: 12 mpg
Jackson: 8 mpg
Bufkin: 6 mpg
...that's an 8 man rotation with Jackson and Bufkin getting the rest of the minutes (similar to Williams this year).
If you wanted to take 5 away from Johns and split it on Diabate and Williams...I wouldn't argue with you.
If Davis comes back, give him Johns 12 minutes at C and take 7 minutes from Williams and give them to Johns, giving him all 20 minutes at PF.
------------------------
And in 2022...
PG: Collins (30), *McDaniel (10)
SG: Jackson (25), *Je. Howard (10), Bufkin (5)
SF: Williams (15), *Glenn (18), Bufkin (7)
PF: Diabate (30), Williams (10)
C: *Clingan (25), *Grad Transfer (15)
Collins: 30 mpg
Diabate: 30 mpg
Jackson: 25 mpg
*Clingan: 25 mpg
Williams: 25 mpg
*Glenn: 18 mpg
*Grad Transfer: 15 mpg
Bufkin: 12 mpg
*Je. Howard: 10 mpg
Williams: 10 mpg
*McDaniel: 10 mpg
...no way 11 guys average over 10 mpg, but I have no idea where to pull from.
I don’t get how Dotman still gets an “insider” label.
Im sure he hears things, but it seems like his sources are the same as Sam Webb’s. Plus All he does is make vague, cryptic posts that either don’t pan out or are impossible to understand and then he gets upset when people try to interpret what he was saying.
I like option 3 the best. Brooks stays and we get a transfer PG. That seems like the best roster construction but I love me some Chaundee so I won’t complain a bit if he is back.
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