Mailbag: Well, I Asked For Stupid Questions
The gap.
Biggest gap for a Michigan athlete between their potential and their reality during their time at Michigan?
— Matthew Cheney (@matthewdcheney) March 17, 2021
This is a fascinating question. I'm going to leave out guys who saw their careers derailed by injury (Antonio Bass, Tarik Black) and also guys who the recruiting industry airballed on (Kevin Grady, Derrick Green) and limit this folks who clearly had something to offer and did not get to display it for whatever reason:
- Devin Gardner. Gardner looked like a Heisman contender at certain points (ND UTL II, the two point conversion game against OSU) and was battered to pulp by the worst pass protection of all time at all other points. Not too hard to see him in the NFL if he hadn't ascended to nirvana in the middle of an MSU game.
- Ernest Shazor. Electric hitter, five star recruit, repeatedly ran the wrong way at incredible rates of speed. He must have had some personal issues because he went from a projected second-round pick to completely undraftable in a couple months in which no football was being played.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones. Five star wide receiver with massive athletic talent who saw his QB exit the pocket repeatedly and avoid downfield shots even when they were blitheringly wide open. Might as well file Nico "60 targets" Collins in here too.
- Denard Robinson. Had just established himself as the most electric player in college football when Brady Hoke came in and brought in a guy who wanted to put him under center. Nerve injury had a lot to do with his late-career fade, too, but seeing Denard run a waggle will remain a crime against man and panda forever.
- Evan Smotrycz. Smotrycz was coming off a 53/44 shooting year and was a career 41% three point shooter on ~200 attempts when he decided to transfer to Maryland. A major reason for this was the fact that he got drafted into playing a bunch of center, which he openly loathed. He ended up being redundant with Jake Layman at Maryland and faded into being a bench player as a senior. There's an alternate Smotrycz history where he gets to be a stretch four under Beilein for four years and has an absurdly efficient statline as an upperclassman.
Protests?
Given the timing of #NotNCAAProperty do you think it's likely there will be an on court protest during the tournament?
— Mathew Puskar (@NoExtraT) March 18, 2021
That's impossible to project but I do feel like that day is coming closer every year. Getting garbage meals while quarantined in a hotel so that everyone except you gets paid buckets of cash does seem like a potential tipping point. At some point a team is going to realize that they have a considerable
I've advocated for teams to adopt a mini-boycott where they don't play for 15 minutes—and if the network cuts to commercial the counter starts over. That would be a wake-up call that could escalate if necessary.
[After THE JUMP: ravoli rebels]
Space lawyer asks about earthly concerns.
Do we have to go back to pants post-pandemic? Or at a minimum can we transition to track suits?
— SpaceLawyer (@MahanicNick) March 17, 2021
Asking a blogger about pants is like asking an elephant about tank tops. I am familiar with the term but see no application to my situation, whether there's a pandemic or not. So yeah be a lawyer in a track suit, I'm sure it will go fine. You will get many clients and judges will remark on your casual, comfortable efficiency.
Freaky Saturday.
What would happen if every B1G school’s football and basketball coaches switched jobs, ie Harbaugh coaches hoops and Juwan coaches football?
— Michael (@BravesAndBirds) March 17, 2021
Every team in both sports would get massively worse except for Michigan State basketball, which already plays football, and Purdue football, which already plays basketball. Ohio State fans would commit atrocities beyond belief outside of a Fogo de Chao in suburban Chicago. Northwestern basketball would win the Big Ten title by winning 11 overtime games 35-32. Iowa fans heads would explode as their football team turns into #chaosteam-era Indiana and their basketball team runs a precisely regimented offense that does not realize there is a three point line. Nothing would happen at Wisconsin.
[Campredon]
Self-abuse for wins.
Would you let Brad Davison elbow you in the jewels* if it means Michigan goes to the Final Four?
— Patrick Barron (@BlueBarronPhoto) March 17, 2021
*would also be filmed and uploaded to Twitter
Is he pretending that he's doing a basketball at the time? If so, yes. You can only get so much velocity in while also badly missing a layup. That would be temporarily painful but unlikely to do any lasting damage. Also the angles are all wrong so I think this is a glancing blow.
If he is loading up specifically to disintegrate my sous vide and croquettes, no. I shudder to think what kind of carnage Brad Davison could do unbound by the specter of a flagrant 2.
[Campredon]
The Johnsening.
Will the Livers situation be the impetus for Johns to finally breakout the next 3 weeks and realize his seemingly high ceiling potential? I’ve always been a big fan of his and feel like he’s always on the verge of a breakout
— JVBlitz (@blitz_jv) March 17, 2021
For a given definition of "breakout," sure. I'd be just fine with Johns recapturing his sophomore form. He's has been marginalized this year but last year he was a highly effective bench player. In Big Ten play he shot 64/38 and had a TO rate just over 10, and that was in over 20 MPG. The only slight drawback was his usage, which was in role player territory at 15%.
This year most of his numbers have declined because Livers has been available and Franz can't be benched for long stretches. Johns has always been mercurial, a guy who seems more prone to big performance swings than most, and I think the sparing playing time has affected him. He has trouble finding his way into games when he's only playing a handful of minutes.
There seemed to be a shift when he got the start against OSU. He got to the line four times by backing down his opponents and hit 21% usage by creating a lot of his own shots. That's a new level of aggression for him, one that he should be able to maintain into the tournament because he's not going to meet a lot of 4s who aren't going to be vulnerable to that.
Johns is also a 36% three point shooter and should be able to absorb kickouts that were going to Livers without a disastrous drop in efficiency. I think it's 60/40 against that he performs well enough to spur a deep tourney run and people start talking about him like the presumptive starting 4 next year.
COVID returns?
If only one senior can come back who would you like it to be: Smith, Brooks, Brown or Livers?
— Marc-Grégor Campredon (@MarcGregor) March 17, 2021
Who is the most likely to come back for an extra year?
Given the composition of the team next year and the fact that young point guards often struggle, Smith is the pick. Livers is the best player of those four but Michigan is bringing in a plug-and-play stretch four in Caleb Houstan and should have a senior Brandon Johns back. Also you're probably going to get some Moussa Diabate minutes at the 4. If Smith does not return the point guard will either be a sophomore Zeb Jackson or freshman Frankie Collins. That would be asking a lot, especially since Collins is coming off a disjointed, strange final high school season that hasn't seen him play many games.
Smith is also the most likely to come back. Livers tested draft waters last year and has a real shot as a 3&D wing in the league. Brown's in the same boat. Brooks and Smith don't have NBA aspirations, but Brooks has been around the block in four years at Michigan. Smith hasn't actually gotten to have a high-major season where there are people in the stands.
Zombie Wisconsin.
i asked ace but cc’ing you now: i had a fevered daydream about a situation called Zombie Wisconsin where they all come back for the bonus year and are worse and Davison lands more nut punches than twos and they all look like Punished Snake from Metal Gear. will this happen?
— ακόμη δέσμιος εις τον Τάρταρον (@3dPartyInternet) March 17, 2021
No, but only because Micah Potter and Greg Gard want to throttle each other.
Hockey retention.
Basically, how many of the high-end draft picks do we stand to lose and who will likely stick around to help us climb past the older skilled teams?
— Alex Garbarino (@DrGarbs) March 17, 2021
This is pretty much the question about the hockey team as long as it keeps recruiting like this. Michigan has recruited so well that they're going to have four players in the top ten and could have three in the top five. Players who go that high are often signed by their teams immediately even if they end up playing in the AHL for much or all of their first year as a professional. This isn't a certainty, though: the Red Wings left #4 overall pick Lucas Raymond in Sweden and #5 overall pick Jake Sanderson matriculated at North Dakota.
The thing Michigan needs to do is hang onto their high-end stars until they have a blow-out Hobey year and only lose them after that. Or at least some of them. This class is particularly well-suited to do that because three of their four top-end prospects are already on campus and are the kinds of players what teams might leave in college for another year. Owen Power is a defenseman, and D usually take more time. Kent Johnson is ultra-skilled but needs a year of physical development. Matt Beniers is maybe the most ready since he's a 200-foot player but his size may mean an immediate jump isn't in the cards. I'm not expecting everyone back but neither am I expecting that Michigan will lose all of those guys.
Meanwhile they've got folks who project as two or three year college players: Brisson, Bordeleau, Truscott, and incoming recruits Ethan Edwards, Dylan Duke, and Mackie Samoskevich are all guys who have been or will be drafted in the late first to fourth rounds, which puts them in a sweet spot where they have high end talent and enough flaws that they'll stick around Ann Arbor for a while.
This is going to a be a pivotal Michigan Hockey summer. The good news is that they've stockpiled so much talent that they can take some hits and expect to go into next year as one of the best teams in the country.
No
are pop-tarts ravioli
— Joe (@blueandjoe) March 17, 2021
Is Saturn tea?
Re Q1 - Jerod Ward. Super high-end recruit, flashed some great talent at times, but never seemed to put it all together.
Tough to reach you're potential when your knees won't cooperate
Recruiting wasn't a huge industry in the mid-'90s, but what I remember is that Ward shot up the charts based on amazing performances (a bunch of 3s) in a small handful of all-star games. He might've gone from a Top 60 guy to a Top 5 guy based on those.
I remember watching him before his knee trouble. Even at that time I thought Maurice Taylor (who'd go on to play a few years in the NBA) looked like the better overall player.
Still, it would've been nice to have seen him at full strength.
Spike Albrecht. He could have averaged 34 points per game (based on 17 first half points against Louisville) if only he had been used properly and given a chance.
March 18th, 2021 at 11:48 PM ^
This was very disappointing. I subscribed to recruiting magazines at the time and was pumped Michigan was getting Ward. Maurice Taylor and Maceo Baston ended up with better careers at U of M.
Those mid-to-late 1990's teams feel like such a massive waste of potential. Had the top recruiting class in the country in both 1994 & 1995 yet they all they had to show it for it was a single 1st round win in the NCAAs in '98 (which was vacated because of the Ed Martin scandal). And then we spent the next decade in the wilderness until Beilein came.
Have a considerable.....
A. Amount of power?
B. Lack of understanding about the entire process?
C. Amount of homework?
D. Consideration to consider?
You need the special MGoBlog Decoder Glasses to read the rest of that sentence. (They come when you redeem 16,000 MGoPoints.)
I'm not at liberty to discuss the rest of that sentence, but it's a doozy. Really mind-blowing.
So a considerable about of ovaltine then?
I KNEW I should've posted more meaningless gifs in the posbangs! Doh!
Tee-tee is tea?
"At some point a team is going to realize that they have a considerable"
Literally on the edge of my seat... A considerable WHAT??!!??
Only the pure of heart can see the rest of that sentence.
No, I can't see it either.
Re: Michigan Hockey Summer
the new NHL TV deal may mitigate it a bit, and Michigan's players are in the top 5 it may not matter, but I bet on the whole there's more draft-and-stash this year so that NHL teams don't have to pay extra salaries.
Unless rookies are that cheap, in which case they'll sign people who aren't ready. I guess I'm just thinking Covid/cash could make this year weirder in terms of some of those decisions.
You’re more optimistic about the hockey returnees than I am. If we get one of those three top guys back I’m ecstatic, and whomever it is probably enters next season as the Hobey favorite.
I don’t think the Davison question is that good. Michigan could make the FF without Davison taking a swing at Brian, and has twice recently with a couple other seasons where it was close. The tougher question is, a Davison swing for a win over Ohio State in football.
The other problem with the Davis question is the premise. He throws elbows to the head and forearms to the dangly bits.
I will gladly donate all my MGoPoints, an ice pack, and a nice steak dinner to any member here who takes this Davison swing for a win over Ohio State in football.
Not an original thought, from twitter, but a Soy Vanilla Latte is a three bean soup.
Mr. T is a tea.
If the players play a protest half, the reaction of bettors and Vegas will be a sight to behold.
I'd put Irvin in there for the first question. Shot 43% from 3 his freshman year and was never able to replicate that, though he did expand other parts of his game throughout his career. Combine his freshman shooting with his upperclassman well roundedness and you get a sophomore Nik Stauskas type of performance.
Yeah but that seems mostly due to back injuries which sapped his athleticism. He's like Josh Langford.
He was a nice catch and shoot player but I never saw him as a playmaker. Not that athletic either. Even if his shooting hadn't regressed (and I wonder if JB broke his shot), he couldn't pass or handle the ball like Nik Stauskas.
No way. He had way more production than those other guys. And he was good but not like he was ever seen as a lottery pick. He basically lived up to his potential. What was his shooting the other years? I'm sure it wasn't bad, but I'm guessing highest the first year because he just stood there and shot 3s. Lots of guys FG% goes down when they have to be a bigger cog in the offense.
Tea it up!
Hah, love the tea diagram.
Totally thought the hockey question was a basketball question as I missed the header.
Disagree about Smotrycz. He was somewhat highly rated but ultimately not that athletic and didn't have a great motor. He was long and supposedly could shoot, but he was no Wagner brother. As his stint at Maryland proved, he was just a guy.
I think Kam Chatman is a better pick for player who never came close to reaching his potential. Maybe he was never as great as his recruiting profile suggested, but he still seemed like a guy who could have developed into something. Exactly what I'm not sure.
Personally I'd love for Brown to return. Is he seriously considered an NBA prospect? I get that he's a bouncy-ish wing who can shoot, but if Livers is a mid-second rounder I don't really know what Brown would be. Selfishly, I think he would be awesome at Michigan. A lot of people seem to think next year is Johns' time to shine but given his struggles, I don't know what that's based on. He's a nice bench player to have, but I don't see how he starts over the freshmen.
Chatman is a good call. His senior year after his transfer I think he was 40+% 3 shooter with like 8 rebounds a game and 80+% from the free throw line I believe. He only played 3 years in college I think. Also, he grew like 2 inches over his college career as well, and if I remember correctly, he was also pretty young when he started college. Like a little younger than LeVert was when he started college. But no one talked about that as much for some reason.
delightful.
with all due respect, and as someone who rarely cooks a protein outside of my trusty sous vide appliance, i believe that "my sous vide and croquettes" is a meaningless phrase. best to go with the simple unadorned "balls."
I could see Brooks come back as well, but Smith seems my far the most likely. I like Brown but at this point he went from starter to WF to top bench guy at UM and he'd be fighting for similar minutes next year, most likely.
I hope Johns makes the leap. I don't think he's suddenly going to become a Livers replacement but if he can be an above-average defender and shoot wide-open shots that's all anyone should expect.
Gardner will always be the most "what-if" football player in my mind because he flashed the potential to be great and probably would have benefitted from his senior year under Harbaugh, yet was so destroyed by Hoke that he never really recovered. I am also in the minority here and say that DPJ felt as much a recruiting whiff as a victim of poor QB play. He was a great athlete but he never seemed to develop solid route running and his hands weren't as consistent as you'd hope for a top-flight WR. Still a good player who could have been better with better QBs throwing to him but at some point I'd expect the #1 guy in a class to crack 100 yards or for his only multiple-TD game to be against someone other than SMU.
I feel like Wisconsin is going to be a bunch of 25-year-old dues next year, all deploying old-man YMCA skills while constantly adjusting their knee braces. It's going to be so weird.
I think we can retire the whole "what Gardner would've been under Harbaugh" thing. Harbaugh's track record of QB development here means Gardner probably wouldn't have been a whole lot better than what he was.
I'm not disagreeing, as much as qualifying, but the improvement may have come more from functional offensive line play. Rudock did well here, too.
Rudock played well in his year at UM and I think Gardner would have had similar success.
I also will continue to believe that a lot of Harbaugh's struggles the past two years were from having McDaniel's as the QB coach and not having a dedicated WR coach. Rudock played well under Harbaugh, Speight played well until he was hurt, and people getting angry that the 750-ranked player in the country, who transferred to UM after losing his job at Houston, didn't set the world on fire went into that with unrealistic expectations. Patterson looked promising as a first-year player as well, but the past two seasons Harbaugh ceded control to McDaniels and that really hurt QB development and production. I'm actually optimistic that this year QB play will be markedly improved specifically because of Harbaugh's influence on the spot along with Weiss.
March 18th, 2021 at 10:29 PM ^
Agree. I think the better question is "what could Gardner have been under Urban Meyer?" Probably a household name...
Ok, but DPJ has been more productive in the NFL already than he was at Michigan. Also, they whiffed on that whole class? Kind of hard to blame DPJ when nobody in that WR class, or even the class as a whole practically, did much of anything.
I think if Denard qualifies for your list, then so does Mitch McGary. His tournament run in 2013 showed what he could do, but he only ended up starting 12 games in his entire Michigan career after struggling with his weight in his freshman year and then having his career truncated due to back problems and weed. Does a healthy McGary get Michigan to an NCAA championship in 2014?
Yes. He would've made a huge difference against that Kentucky team that just absolutely crushed us on the boards. Wisconsin would've been tough in the F4 but get by them and all you have left is a 7 seed UConn.
March 18th, 2021 at 10:31 PM ^
Yeah, plus that UK/UConn final was one of the worst basketball games I've ever watched.
If we could get back 2 of 3 of Powers, Beniers, and Johnson and get 2-3 years out of Bordeleau, Brisson, and Truscott I would be thrilled. Like mentally dreaming of a few frozen fours in the next few years thrilled. Portillo's probably not going anywhere either.
The discussion about switching coaches reminded me of former Purdue basketball coach Gene Keady. He was an All-American football player who started coaching basketball because that was the only coaching job available.
I didn't know that, thanks.
I think a fair number of CBB coaches could be decent CFB coaches. I bet Coach Howard would be one of the better ones to make the switch. I mean, last 5 years of Bobby Bowden at FSU had as much hands on football coaching by Bowden as a CBB coach would do...
I disagree with that. I think most CFB football coaches would have functional basketball teams because of recruiting. Might not know a damn thing about the game, but just hire "coordinators" to do that and recruit to the program. CBB coaches don't know how to recruit to the numbers football looks to bring in on a yearly basis.
If we are talking players who were unable to display their talent "for whatever reason", then Mitch McGary might be one of the most disappointing case studies.
I just want Brandon Johns to dunk on people. He is tall with some bounce and he never just dunks it- it’s always a double pump layup. Is he getting stuffed in practice all the time or something?
What kind of monster makes mac & cheese with water?
I laughed for a minute straight at the tea chart.
Re: question 1, imagining an alternate history vs OSU where Kelly Baraka lights it up
We had this guy at QB once, Lloyd rotated him in and out with the younger local QB golden boy. I wonder what that guy would have done here if Lloyd had not platooned him with the local hot shot. But Devin Gardner is the winner, wish we could have some kind of day or recognition for him at a home game.
A (sad) list would be a career derailed by injuries. Tony Boles would be on that list.
In the somewhat way back machine, Allen Jefferson. Rb with super smooth moves and awesome acceleration, was poised to jump into starting role post Jamie Morris and blew out his knees. Never got a shot because Leroy Hoard and Tony Boles passed him up.
Good call, I forgot about Allen Jefferson. We were stacked back then at RB.
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