Hoops Preview: Michigan State 2020-21, Part Two
THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT | #2 Michigan (19-2, 14-2 B1G) at #61 Michigan State (14-11, 8-11) |
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WHERE | Breslin Center East Lansing, Michigan |
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WHEN | 4:30 pm Eastern Sunday, March 7th |
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THE LINE | KenPom: M -11 Torvik: M -8.6 |
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TELEVISION | CBS |
THE OVERVIEW
It's those guys again, just a little down the road and with a championship locked up this time.
The stakes for the Spartans remain high. They're the last at-large in the Bracket Matrix field, which hasn't yet been updated for them getting whooped yesterday. Bart Torvik's updated projections also have them as the last team to make it, though that means only a 22.3% chance of securing an at-large bid. They need a win on Sunday or they'll need to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament to not be sweating out every one-bid conference's tournament.
Speaking of the BTT, Michigan is obviously locked into the one-seed, which means they're keeping an eye on Thursday's 8/9 matchup. MSU is currently projected as the nine-seed and would stay there with a win and/or an Indiana loss to Purdue on Saturday afternoon. If MSU loses and Indiana wins, however, the Hoosiers would jump the Spartans and knock them down to the ten-seed.
Meanwhile, Rutgers is the most likely other team in the 8/9 game. They're locked into that matchup outside of a few scenarios involving them beating Minnesota and Maryland losing to Penn State. Maryland is the other possible eight-seed.
THE US
Seth's graphic, updated for banner [click to embiggen]:
No other changes. We're awaiting official coach of the year awards before crowning certain, uh, coaches.
THE LINEUP CARD
Seth's graphic [click for big]:
No changes other than the record. Yes, Tom Izzo started Malik Hall over Gabe Brown last night, but Brown tallied 17 more minutes, and I imagine the Spartans will be inclined to change things up. Any of AJ Hoggard (over Rocket Watts), Marcus Bingham (over Julius Marble), or Joey Hauser (over Marble or Hall/Brown) could start without much surprise; I'd include Thomas Kithier in that group if Hunter Dickinson hadn't just given him an atomic wedgie and stolen his lunch money.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
Back-to-back games against the same opponent mean I get to link you to Brian's preview from literally yesterday. Some additional notes:
- Leaders in playing time for MSU last night: Josh Langford (33 minutes), Aaron Henry (31), Gabe Brown (27), Rocket Watts (22), Joey Hauser (20), then three players (Julius Marble, AJ Hoggard, and Marcus Bingham) tied at 14 and Malik Hall at ten. Your guess at the rotation is as good as mine and possibly Tom Izzo's.
- Thomas Kithier's two minutes went so poorly that I can't imagine he sees the floor unless Hunter Dickinson has been forcefully removed from the premises.
- A certain message board has certain posters clamoring for Jack Hoiberg to play more, in case you're wondering how the point guard position is working out.
Of course, this season has shown us that consecutive games against the same opponent can have wildly divergent outcomes. Colgate gave us the canonical example in January:
MSU does have some strategic changes they can make in addition to the likely rotation tweaks. Michigan's pick-and-roll attack demolished State's drop coverage scheme last night:
From a schematic perspective, Michigan absolutely abused Izzo’s drop coverage approach.
— LAbound (@LAbound2) March 5, 2021
17pts on these 7 possessions.
I’d be shocked if Izzo opts for drop-coverage exclusively on Sunday. Particularly coupled with their guards/wings going under Ballscreens. pic.twitter.com/knJ2RJdR63
Izzo isn't likely to ask his defenders to switch because the team isn't built for that, particularly against Michigan, but we could see more hedging to attempt to force some turnovers or at least an extra pass before the ball gets into the post. As for MSU's offense, well, if you have any workable ideas, you should be a coach.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Well, yeah, those wouldn't have improved.
THE KEYS
less of this, maybe? [Campredon]
Adjust as necessary. Whether it's MSU sending more double-teams to try to induce (even) more Dickinson turnovers, changing their pick-and-roll coverage, or... whatever they come up with on offense, there's going to be something different about the way this game plays out. Juwan Howard has been the tactical match of his counterpart in all but a game or two this season. It's hard to see a day of film review and a practice fundamentally changing how these two squads match up.
Pack the paint. If one had to nitpick after the blowout in Crisler, they'd point to the team playing too tight on subpar shooters in the first half, which opened up some drives and backdoor cuts that were pretty much MSU's only easy points. Gabe Brown is the only guy who requires that treatment and he rarely attacks off the dribble. If anyone else wants to pull up for a long jumper, that's a win.
Ditch the zone. I normally like Michigan's matchup zone as a changeup but Izzo saw something in the way it's run that allowed MSU to repeatedly get Aaron Henry matched up on Mike Smith down low. That was the other way State scored without great effort. As we saw on pretty much all the other possessions, when Michigan plays man, the Spartans have a really difficult path to points. Their best scorer is going against either Franz Wagner or Isaiah Livers most of the time. That's working.
Crush them. End the streak. Emphatically.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 11.
As long as there isn't any Breslin officiating funny business, then we should be fine
Staee needs W badly. Tiny still on the sideline. Plan on some sketchiness.
If I had a nickel for every time one of our beloved maize and blue sports teams should have been fine but then wasn't... I'd probably spend it on alcohol for after the next time we should have been fine but then weren't.
Michigan has the conference locked up, MSU needs a win to get into the tournament. I’d expect some funny business
MSU in a narrow victory with lots of dirty play and the refs ignoring most of it.
Finish Them
You need to re-post the picture of MSU's center rotation. That was priceless!
Turns out the lady in the pink dress would have been a better matchup for them.
Good lord that picture of Bingham next to Smith. He's a stick figure. It's a good think basketball arenas don't have breezes or he'd blow away.
Just a hunch, but I think Izzo believes he can get to the tournament with 9 conference wins and 1 in the B10 tournament. His best chance of beating Michigan is at home where they already beat Ohio State and Illinois. He wasn’t terribly invested Thursday night and he didn’t play his shortened rotation. Expect to see more of Watts, Brown and Sissoko on Sunday. I don’t understand why he plays Hall and Marble. They bring nothing to the table. At least Bingham blocks some shots and Sissoko brings energy and hard fouls. Izzo is also requesting DJ Carstensen’s crew for Sunday. The slugfest that wasn’t on Thursday will occur Sunday.
Can Izzo actually request certain Officials? I agree that Izzo treated Thursday like a scrimmage. I think a win on Sunday makes MSU a lock to make the tournament. Izzo definitely realizes this and is putting everything on the game Sunday. It will be an ugly slug fest and it wouldn’t surprise me to see MSU win.
As we have seen a few times this season, getting us into foul trouble on some key guys is a path to victory. If I’m planning to play UM, I’m starting Sissoko and feeding him regularly early and trying to get HD and AD in foul trouble to force Michigan into the Johns lineup.
Is it reported somewhere that he’s requesting that crew and did he give a reason?
I mean I think we know why, but can you really tell the big ten office that you want an official that lets you get away with physical play?
Just a poor attempt at humor on my part. We got Borowski Thursday, odds are Carstensen will call the game Sunday.
repeating a theme:
Last of the Mohicans. Nice.
Phenomenal soundtrack
Why does one of the MSU players have a planet icon?
Ball Hog. Objects enter his orbit but rarely leave.
I think I asked that same question in the previous preview b/c I thought it was Saturn. That's a black hole for ballhog.
Beat them like they owe us money.......
GO BLUE
Sweep the leg
Win the game.
Shut Yosemite Tim up.
If Indiana wins and MSU loses how does Indiana jumped msu with identical records after msu swept Indiana.
They wouldn't have identical records. Indiana would be 8-11 while msu would be 8-12. The Michigan-Indiana game from our COVID pause was never rescheduled, so they play one fewer game than a full schedule. Hence, IU would have a better winning percentage than msu and would get the higher seed.
Oh lawd I hope that nuance comes to fruition. staee is already big mad that UofM “weaseled” out of playing IU, NW, and PSU. If they get knocked down a peg because of a tiebreaker related to that, the couch fires in east Lansing will be bright enough to be seen by the mars rover.
We're awaiting official coach of the year awards before crowning certain, uh, coaches.
Martelli?!
/s
Only thing I'm worried about is a Sissoko elbow or other dirty shit that lil bro likes to pull.
Lord, this is the only thing that concerns me about playing this game. I haven't watched much terrible basketball this season, but has anyone else noticed MSU curbing the cheap hits during and after their glorified 4 out of 5 run (said in Dicky V's voice)?
You can count on it.
Thanks for bringing me down to earth with the Colgate-Army reality. The point spread is crazy for an M team against the purportedly Top 10 team entering the season. But could have been 30 last night! "We'll see what happens!" No doubt our M team will be motivated! Go Blue!
MSU has played 6 home and homes so far. They are 2-4 on the road and 4-2 at home. Aggregate road deficit is 49 points. Aggregate home margin is 12. That’s a 61 point swing, or ~10 points per pair of games. I’d take a 9 point victory. What worries me is the Iowa series throws everything out of whack. MSU lost by 8 at Iowa, but by 30 at home. Otherwise, the home/road difference would be more dramatic.
That said, the Rutgers games show a swing of 53 points. But we’re not Rutgers.
MSU as a preseason top 10 team made zero sense then and is even more laughable now.
To me, this is the rare exception that I don't predict what KENPOM does.
Moar nice things are available Sunday.
First thing: Win the Big 10 title at MSU's expense. Check.
Next order of business: Throw Sparty in the goddamned woodchipper.
Did I read the fine print correctly-Kithier has an offensive rating of 124? how is that possible?
Hunter Dickinson kinda started taking over in the 2nd half Thursday -- mostly with his rebounding. He's the key I think.
Mildly insufferable. Always Harry.
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