Unverified Voracity Finds The Spot
The locations. Five Fifth Factor Plots, Michigan's shot locations against the Badgers:
Now delete five of those midrange shots (one of them was the long Zeb Jackson make) because they came from the Kenpom Kids. Hot damn. UW entered this game forcing midrange shots at a top-20 rate and allowing just 52% at the rim. Michigan hit 70% at the rim and got to the rim 23 times.
As I've said before, the really exciting thing about this team is the sustainability of the things they're good at. They get to the rim against everyone and convert there; they force a ton of horrible shots. They are currently 8th at forcing long twos and eighth at defending them. Wisconsin: 6/12 at the rim, 5/25(!) on farther twos.
That's how you can have the best 2PT in the country and a top five FTA/FGA rate.
[After THE JUMP: charts of less auspicious character]
Meanwhile down the road. MSU cannot get to the rim. Shot chart from their game against Purdue:
That is seven shots at the rim.
Also in what's-going-on-at-MSU, the closing minutes of that game featured a Ben Carter level tactical decision. Brendan Quinn:
On the other end, though, Williams was feasting on an undersized front line of Hauser and Malik Hall.
At some point, it seemed, coach Tom Izzo would send in a big man to put some size on Williams.
When the final minute arrived and Purdue muscled its way into position to win, it seemed glaringly obvious.
On the last possession — a baseline inbound with six seconds left and the Spartans clinging to a one-point lead — it was downright alarming that the same lineup was out there.
The Spartans stayed small.
Of course, Williams slipped free on a well-designed inbound play by coach Matt Painter and flipped a shot up and in. Purdue 55, Michigan State 54.
Joey Hauser checked Williams for most of the second half.
Stu Douglass talks to Duncan Robinson. Robinson was coached by Juwan Howard with the Heat, of course, and came away thinking the same things most people do:
I loved the stories that Duncan Robinson told @SWD_317 about playing for Juwan Howard in Miami.
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) January 9, 2021
"This can't be what this guy is actually like."
SUBSCRIBE!@Spotify https://t.co/2ovqwvZi9g@ApplePodcasts https://t.co/noiW8ckMaO pic.twitter.com/HET937NLYC
No whammies. I'm checking out NBA Draft articles with the air of a Press Your Luck contestant these days, dreading the moment Hunter Dickinson shows up on them or Wagner pops into the lottery. Mostly good news so far, from the perspective of Michigan fans. The Draft Express guys updated the status of the draft class a week ago, including a section on emerging guys. Dickinson did not draw a mention. Franz Wagner didn't, either, but that could not and did not last. Givony and Schmitz on guys creating buzz:
After a slow start to the season offensively, Wagner has blossomed in Big Ten play, shooting the ball effectively from the perimeter, scoring opportunistically inside the arc and becoming a key playmaking cog in Michigan's well-spaced and highly efficient offense.
Defensively is where Wagner has made the biggest strides, though, as he's shown the ability to contain guards, wings, forwards and even some big men thanks to his terrific size, high activity level, outstanding basketball awareness and textbook technique. While not all that fleet of foot and still lacking a degree of physicality, he's always in the right spots off the ball and is often one step ahead of his opponents defending one on one because of how quickly he anticipates and reacts to what's going on around him. …
While he's never going to be a primary creator due to his just-decent athleticism and projects as a complementary player at the NBA level … jump shot is his swing skill as a prospect.
They also suggest that it "wouldn't be shocking" if he returned for his junior year since he's still younger than a lot of college freshmen like Jalen Suggs and Evan Mobley. (Also Dickinson.) Dickinson did crack their top 100, but only at #82. Livers is #90.
DX also put out a 2022 mock draft ten days ago that has Caleb Houstan 8th and Wagner 48th. (Also Malik Hall? For some reason?) It's early yet but I can't imagine Moussa Diabate is going to get excluded from many more 2022 mocks. Dickinson is still absent from that one, FWIW.
Meanwhile Sam Vecenie is higher on Dickinson:
Wanted to talk about Hunter Dickinson on yesterday’s podcast but just kind of ran out of time. Dickinson is absolutely a real 2021 NBA prospect. He’s been just absolutely monstrous and one of the very few freshmen country-wide that’s been consistently awesome.
— Sam Vecenie (@Sam_Vecenie) January 1, 2021
This tweet was met with a handful of Michigan fans imploring Vecenie to use the Men In Black device on himself, as is right and just. Vecenie did not. Dickinson checked in 39th in his Mock Draft 2.0. (Wagner is 36th.)
BONUS: Other familiar names on Vecenie's mock include #17 Greg Brown, #20 Josh Christopher, #24 Ayo Dosunmu, #42 Ron Harper Jr, #45 Luka Garza, #46 Aaron Henry, #50 Joe Wieskamp, #54 Trayce Jackson-Davis, and #57 Marcus Carr.
Arizona State freshman Marcus Bagley checks in at #19, so Bobby Hurley has two first round picks and two senior guards on his roster and is currently 4-5, slotting in just behind St. Bonaventure on Kenpom.
Good luck with that. Kentucky basketball players collectively decided to kneel pregame in the aftermath of the insurrection at the capitol. Also Kentucky's not real good this year. Kentucky fans + politics + losing = crazy, and yuuuup:
The Kentucky basketball protest was met with resentment in some corners of the state.
A small-town sheriff named John Root who described Kentucky as “the Hillbilly State” took to social media to light Kentucky gear on fire and demand that the university “get a real man to lead the cats and a real team.”
Members of the Knox County Fiscal Court in southern Kentucky unanimously signed a resolution calling for Kentucky to defund UK.
“The University of Kentucky receives millions and millions of dollars every year of hardworking Kentucky taxpayers’ money,” Judge Executive Mike Mitchell told the Times-Tribune. “I think they need to be held accountable for their actions if they can’t manage it no better than that.”
I encourage Kentucky to fire Calipari and hire… uh… Ron White? Sure, Ron White. That's a Kentucky coach we can all get behind.
Sickos content. I mean I was always going to embed this:
the worst long snaps in college football in 2020: pic.twitter.com/Gm9tH10RTb
— seth galina (@pff_seth) January 6, 2021
The number of games with multiple disastrous long snaps is impressive.
Chase Winovich update! Seems to be doing well out there.
It’s so sick
— Chase Winovich (@Wino) January 14, 2021
Keep it here for all your critical Chase Winovich twitter embeds.
A bright spot in football, I guess? PFF's Seth Galina thought that if OSU played their base stuff against Alabama they'd get obliterated. They did, and they did.
We spent the whole week asking — nay, begging — Ohio State to give help to its cornerbacks against Alabama’s receivers. If the Buckeyes could just spend a few practices reinforcing the two-high coverages they already have in their playbook, though rarely used, it would show the Crimson Tide different looks and confuse them even a little bit to at least not put up 52 points. Or, to counter the incredible speed and talent Alabama puts out at receiver, use your nickelback instead of your Sam linebacker to get better matchups.
Ohio State, as we now know, stuck to its guns and surrendered 52 points. Alabama put on a clinic of attacking the specific ways the Buckeyes play one-high in their base personnel. Whether it was man or Cover 3, Ohio State had no shot.
Galina breaks down the various ways in which OSU did the thing they can do almost all of the time—run relatively simple stuff with superior players—when that was never going to work against Alabama. A crack in the façade, if Michigan can translate their super-fast WRs to on-field production.
Etc.: Michigan lands 18th in Perfect Game's baseball preseason poll. Indiana (14) and OSU (23) also make it. Check out Bobby Loesch's Hyball for all your Iowa/Michigan basketball content. One of the more ridiculous examples of NCAA overreach you'll see. Dickinson checks in 5th on Jon Gasaway's list of the top 25 players in CBB. Michigan #4 on Matt Norlander' power rankings, which were released before the Wisconsin win (and Texas's loss to Texas Tech). Going to be #3 on these virtually everywhere soon.
Jeff Borzello talks to Bart Torvik and Jordan Sperber (and some coaches) about whether the eye test has any place in tournament selection. The data people say no; I agree. Matt Beniers had a standout WJC.
January 14th, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Several unrelated comments:
Disastrous long snaps, in college? My Pittsburgh Steelers say "hold my beer."
The eye test has no place in tournament selection? So you'd be cool with a computer algorithm seeding the tournament with no input from humans? No? Then what exactly are you saying?
NCAA perfidy. Yup, it's absurd; and there ought to be no penalty for an unintentional, de minimus violation that clearly disadvantaged no one. But I have several contrarian observations: first, I am tired of athletes who were actually on the team when the violations happened saying "don't take our wins away; that's unfair." But, they are totally cool with sanctions on the current team whose players had absolutely nothing to do with it. (Not saying that is what the UMASS people are doing here.)
Second, it's still pretty effing outrageous that the NCAA landed on UMASS over a few hundred bucks harder than they landed on LSU for OBJ making it rain on national TV after the Tigers won the national championship, or on the schools whose basketball programs got caught on tape paying bribes, or on any of highly organized bagman operations that are so blatant SI wrote an article with specifics, and virtually anyone who has a relative involved in P5 recruiting can tell a story or two.
Third, the NCAA stumbled into a position where the few difference making athletes in a couple of marquee sports get less than they would in an open market, and a whole lot of other athletes get more. Also, Congress in the form of Title IX has dictated female athletes will benefit too. Almost everyone agrees athletic opportunity for women is a good thing. It seems to me it is not evil to cap college athlete compensation, if the trade off is that athletes with no prospect of professional sports careers get a free education. Is the lot of a professional minor league baseball player that much better than a full scholarship athlete? If we are serious about taming costs to universities to compete, we can look at capping other expenses (coaching salaries, facilities,...) It'd be nice if the NCAA was an honest broker, but alas.
Fourth, that's why I love the NIL concept. The athletes who are the real rainmakers can get paid all the market will bear, but the Universities don't have to come up with it. No busting the budget; no dealing with Title IX issues. Best of all, this works for superstars in non-rev sports. Think Michael Phelps, who attended U of M but didn't swim for us, or Katey Ledeckey who cut her Stanford career short. How does it benefit the NCAA or anyone to not have these athletes compete in college? I think back to the professional snowboarder who wasn't allowed to play WR for Colorado. Just, why?!
Finally, some dude on the internet broke down how to...break down OSU's base defense? Paging Dr. Harbaugh, Dr. Gattis. You're needed in the film room, STAT!
January 14th, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
Galina stated, "If the Buckeyes could just spend a few practices reinforcing the two-high coverages they already have in their playbook, though rarely used, . . . "
OSU did run some 2-high stuff in the game. I didn't chart it so can't tell you how much, but it didn't look any better than anything else they ran defensively. I don't disagree with Galina that OSU couldn't line up like they always did and expect to win, but it's hard to take something out of the back of your playbook you don't work on and be ready to play Alabama of all teams in 10 days.
OSU needed to find more possessions and the only way to do that (other than onside kicks--which they should have done to start the 2nd half by the way) is force turnovers. And pressure is probably the best way to do that. They should have blitzed as much as possible and see what happens. Do they probably lose? Yes, and possibly by a lot more. But that game was just a slow bleed out that gave themselves zero chance to win.
And I also agree it's indictment of Day. You have to know your personnel and being the 2nd most talented team in the country is nice and all until you run into personnel that is much better than yours. It's one thing to base up for a few drives and see if you match up. It's quite another to keep doing it as the game slips away at the end of the 1st half.
January 14th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
Arizona State freshman Marcus Bagley checks in at #19, so Bobby Hurley has two first round picks and two senior guards on his roster and is currently 4-5, slotting in just behind St. Bonaventure on Kenpom.
Sometimes I have to remind myself not to be a spoiled Michigan basketball fan. It's been such a constant stream of guys out performing their recruiting rankings and likeable teams being well coached, that I forgot there are Michigan football equivalents in the basketball world. Bless you John Beilein and Juwan Howard for making sports really fun
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