The Big Ten is once again tipping off conference play with a couple early December matchups as a tease before going full-bore in January. Every team in the Big Ten has played eight or nine games to this point; despite the small sample, we're already seeing some significant movement. The team expected to run away with the title, Michigan State, has stumbled out of the gates, and now there are five teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at finishing first. Let's take a look at the current standings, with preseason KenPom rankings listed at the end for context.

Current Standings

Ohio State's scorching start is the story of the season thus far; I'll get into that in more depth shortly. Five Big Ten teams are in the top 13 on KemPom and top 11 on Torvik; four of them earned top-11 spots in this week's AP poll. Purdue is the advanced stats darling that doesn't have a record to match; their losses are all against top-50 teams and they made a huge move up after stomping Virginia 69-40(!) last night.

Indiana has crept up the standings mostly by not screwing up a cupcake-laden schedule. The jury is still out on Penn State, as well; they're 4-1 against top-100 KenPom teams but haven't played one ranked higher than 55th. Preseason breakout candidate Illinois has disappointed; same with Wisconsin. The bottom of the conference, expected to be bad, has been quite bad.

[Hit THE JUMP for stock up/stock down among teams and individual players, plus new tiers]

Stock Up

who are you and what did you do with Kaleb Wesson [AP]

Ohio State/Kaleb Wesson. As if Ohio State needed anything else going for them, the basketball team looks like a potential Final Four squad. While the Buckeyes were expected to improve, most of that came from projecting improvement out of their sophomore class and an upgrade at the point with the addition of transfer CJ Walker and touted freshman DJ Carton.

Those projections have come to pass, yet the primary catalyst for OSU's leap wasn't so easy to anticipate. Junior center Kaleb Wesson, already an offensive standout, transformed his body in the offseason, dropping about 20 pounds—he looks way slimmer, more mobile, and more explosive. He still gives opponents nightmares with his post-up and stretch five ability. The main impact has been on defense. Wesson had a very-low-for-a-center 2.9% block rate as a sophomore and committed 5.0 fouls per 40 minutes; this year, he's at 7.1% (79th nationally) and 3.4/40.

OSU's defense ranked 25th last year. It's up to second for the time being. They're a top-two team in the country on both KenPom and Torvik, and the human polls may soon join the advanced metrics. I'd go so far as to say the Buckeyes are now the favorites in a conference that looks unexpectedly competitive at the top.

Penn State/Mike Watkins. I was deeply skeptical of preseason projections that had Penn State as a tournament team. I'm still skeptical, to be honest, but so far they've made the algorithms look good. They haven't had any major hiccups and they're 4-1 against top-100 competition. They'll eventually need a win more impressive than beating #55 Georgetown, even on the road. We'll learn a lot more about how they measure up to top competition in these next two games: they open conference play at Ohio State before hosting Maryland.

We discussed a few times in the preseason how Mike Watkins, the talented center who's dealt with mental health problems that have impacted his availability, was the key to the season for PSU. So far, he's been steady and productive, shooting 60% from the field with excellent rebounding rates on both ends of the court and the #4 block rate in the country. He's staying out of foul trouble and playing 60% of the team's available minutes. Everyone should be rooting for Watkins to keep it going.

Trayce Jackson-Davis. I have no idea what to do with undefeated Indiana, which beat Florida State at home on Tuesday and otherwise hasn't faced a team in the KenPom top 80. Freshman center Trayce Jackson-Davis appears to be the real deal, however. He leads the conference in PORPAGATU!, Torvik's adjusted points above replacement player metric. He's been a monster on the boards, a legit rim protector, and a skilled scorer around the hoop. He also draws a ludicrous number of fouls and hits his free throws at a 73% clip. He's a load to handle, and hopefully a one-and-done.

Anthony Cowan. Maryland's senior point guard has taken his game to another level. He's hitting 40% of his three-pointers, only 59% of which are assisted, and his turnover rate is three points lower than last season's career-best mark. The Terps look like a legit top-ten team and he's the tip of the spear.

Stock Down

pretty sure Greg Gard is not an alien bug in disguise [Patrick Barron]

Michigan State/Xavier Tillman. Please keep in mind this is relative to preseason expectations. Michigan State is a very good basketball team and will at least be in the thick of the conference race unless there are some seriously mitigating circumstances.

So far, though, they haven't looked much like the consensus #1 team in the country. While losses to Kentucky and Duke are certainly understandable, MSU wasn't particularly competitive against the Blue Devils on Tuesday in the Breslin Center, and the Spartans have also dropped a game to #54 Virginia Tech. Cassius Winston remains one of the best point guards in the country, but he's not getting the help he needs.

The biggest disappointment from an individual standpoint is center Xavier Tillman, who looked poised to take a leap into all-conference contention. Instead, with an uptick in usage, his efficiency has fallen across the board, and he's also not been as impactful a defender. Opponents have been effective at neutralizing MSU's pick-and-roll game by forcing the ball to go to Tillman in the midrange area. He hasn't developed the three-point shot it looked like he might at the end of last season. While there's still plenty of time for him to turn it around, he might be a little further away from stardom than anticipated.

Meanwhile, Josh Langford is not expected to return this season because of his foot injury, which hurts MSU's outlook at shooting guard. That's been a sore spot thus far, as freshman Rocket Watts is 17/62 from the field. Winston is the only player with even remotely high usage who's been as efficient as expected this season. The Spartans badly need Tillman and Watts to step up or get a midseason breakout from someone like Gabe Brown or Marcus Bingham.

Wisconsin. Turns out losing Ethan Happ is a big deal. Who would've guessed? The Badgers are 1-4 against top-100 teams; that includes ten- and nine-point neutral court losses to #72 Richmond and #91 New Mexico, respectively. They have the #112 adjusted offense in the country, while the defense has dropped from fourth to 35th.

Wisconsin is still running a ton of offense through the post, but unlike how it was with Happ, once the ball goes down there it stays there—Nate Reuvers is averaging 0.8 assists per game. To make matters worse, nobody looks particularly capable of creating a shot off the dribble. All five starters are shooting 30% or worse on three-pointers. The remnants of the Bo Ryan Bug Person Effect may be wearing off, at long last. You hate to see it.

Illinois/Ayo Dosunmu. The anticipated dark horse Illini still can't make the leap to contention under Brad Underwood. They needed overtime to beat Nicholls State in the opener, struggled to put away Grand Canyon in the next game, and then got blasted at Arizona. After four wins against cannon fodder, they dropped a very winnable B1G/ACC Challenge game at home against #80 Miami (YTM) on Monday.

Ayo Dosunmu came back to school hoping to make a push for the NBA draft lottery. His halfcourt offense continues to hold him back. Dosunmu is shooting 7-for-27 on three-pointers; he's barely getting to the free-throw line; his turnover rate is higher than his assist rate. The Illini aren't going to be a great defensive team, so they really need him to step it up.

Aaron Wheeler. Purdue's promising 6'9" sophomore forward is off to a nightmare start from the field, going 10/34 on threes (not great) and 7/26 on twos (holy what now). He's also turning the ball over on 23.5% of his possessions. He's doing everything else well—he's a very good defender—but you have to wonder where his confidence is going to be if this continues. He's still shooting the ball, which is a good sign for the mental side, but at some point the ball has to go through the dang hoop.

Nebraska. Even compared to the remarkably low expectations attached to returning literally one player... woof. Losing to Georgia Tech is fine. Losing to UC Riverside is not.

New Tiers

This is how I had the Big Ten tiered in the preseason:

Tier I: Michigan State
Tier II: Maryland, Ohio State
Tier III: Purdue, Michigan
Tier IV: Illinois, Wisconsin
Tier V: Penn State, Iowa
Tier VI: Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers
Tier VII: Nebraska, Northwestern

Let's try that again. Remember that the tiers matter more than the order within the tiers.

Tier I: Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Michigan
Tier II: Purdue
Tier III: Penn State, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana
Tier IV: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Rutgers
Tier V: Northwestern, Nebraska

There's a little more polarization this time around. Four teams make the top tier instead of one, but I couldn't bring myself to stick Purdue in that top group, nor could I lump them in with the middle of the conference. I may be underrating Penn State but I'm going to have to see more to fully believe. Ditto Indiana. It makes me so happy to drop Wisconsin into the same tier as Rutgers; please don't ruin this for me, Badgers.