Wisconsin up to 22 Positives

Submitted by CincyBlue on October 31st, 2020 at 9:44 AM

Per Barry on Gameday just now. 

michgoblue

October 31st, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^

Yup - at some point we have to get away from counting positive cases for a disease for which a significant percentage never even suffer symptoms, over 90% don’t go to the hospital and over 99.5% survive. Not saying that covid isn’t real and shouldn’t be taken seriously, but the obsession with “positive cases” is misplaced and leading to bad public policy decisions. Many of these positive cases have such a low viral load that they are almost no risk of transmission or serious effects. The current testing is binary - covid or no covid - meaning that a person with even the lowest detectable viral load will test positive. If we did that every year with any number of other contagious virus infections, the “positive” counts would be similar and we would never leave our houses.
 

The more troubling accurate and important stat is hospitalizations. On that metric, the state of Wisconsin is heading In A bad direction, but the college football players testing posture are not. 

wolverine1987

October 31st, 2020 at 11:06 AM ^

100%. Covid is real and serious, particularly for a segment of the population, generally speaking those over 50, but when we keep talking about cases without any other context, we are not doing the public a service. On Gameday someone said thoughts and prayers to Trevor Lawrence, as if he had a serious risk. He doesn't, nor do others in his age group (with of course the occasional exception). Our focus should be on hospitalizations, and currently in some states they are trending badly, to your point. We should consider this seriously, just as we should also acknowledge where the risks are low. 

TESOE

October 31st, 2020 at 11:35 AM ^

Let's talk about Trevor Lawrence's dad or his grandfather...deeply and respectfully religious types.  Let's talk about their congregations.  Let's talk about CoVid 87.  It's never been about the players.  It is about US. The U.S.

Enjoy the game but don't pretend it is the smart play.  It was/is not.

blueheron

October 31st, 2020 at 11:28 AM ^

"... we have to get away from counting positive cases for a disease for which a significant percentage never even suffer symptoms ..."

Interesting start ...

"Not saying that covid isn’t real and shouldn’t be taken seriously ..."

You pretty much just did say that, in your classic long-winded fashion.

"Many of these positive cases have such a low viral load that they are almost no risk of transmission or serious effects."

I'm sure you dug that out of a reputable medical journal. Maybe you could include a citation.

"... never leave our houses."

Obligatory (for you) hyperbolic statement ...

"... more troubling accurate and important stat is hospitalizations."

Not unreasonable. Now, do you think the total number of cases just might be correlated with hospitalizations?

blue in dc

October 31st, 2020 at 11:46 AM ^

While the mortality risk from covid is much lower for college age students, case trends do in fact provide important context on the trajectory of Covid.   Rising case counts in the first two waves were in fact followed by rising hospitalizations and by rising deaths.   The same trend is occurring in this third wave.   Because you see case counts increase first, it provides a signal that can be used to take more aggressive action to slow the spread.

With regards to football players, while the risk to them personally is low, going to a game involves getting in buses, planes, staying in hotels etc.   All of these activities risk spread to other people who may not be as low risk.   
 

 

blue in dc

October 31st, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^

Most other contagious viruses do not kill over 200,000 people.    The reason that people are concerned about positive cases here more than in other viruses is that Covid actually kills many more people than other viruses.

People would not be concerned with rising case counts if they were not being followed by rising hospital counts and death counts.

Since in your silly straw, those tests for other viruses would in fact not be followed by anywhere near as drastic rises in hospitalizations and deaths, people would be nowhere near as worried about the rising case counts.   

Bambi

October 31st, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^

It's impossible to know as of now. Everything is based on a 7 day rolling average of % of the total population that has tested positive along with % of tests that come back positive. The relevant numbers won't be known until the end of next week when we see how many cases they have, and more importantly how many new cases.

Wisconsin entered a mandatory 7 day quarantine for all players/staff on Wednesday so in theory by this upcoming Wednesday we should see the total damage. Everyone is in their own hotel room and after 7 days of isolation no spread should occur in those 7 days, and testing will identify any currently non-identified positives. 

We'll find out whether Wisconsin will meet the requirements to play Purdue next week soon enough, but I think our game against them (and even the Purdue game) should theoretically be in line to happen. If you're in the Red/Red designation you have to cancel, but Red/Orange is still just a suggestion to consider the viability of scheduled competition. If by next week Wisconsin has more than 5% of their population positive (likely) but under 7.5% tests in the past 7 days as positive (likely if the 7 day shutdown is followed) they'd be eligible to play. And if they feel the spread has been stopped in house at that point, I feel like they'd play. Fast forward another week to our game and it's even more likely they meet all criteria to play, especially since they can only miss 2 games and be eligible for the B1G title game.

Obviously any of this can be thrown off if the spread continues. Either from a false negative allowing someone to continue infecting people, someone breaking quarantine, or even just the state of Wisconsin being a hotbed and a new person getting infected after this initial quarantine ends.

mistersuits

October 31st, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^

Even if we could play them in two weeks, would we want to? Time to write the Badgers off the year and have the rest of the teams that can follow protocols compete.

Yooper

October 31st, 2020 at 11:07 AM ^

Never has the adage coaches have preached for years “we aren’t looking ahead, we are taking the season one game at a time” taken on so much meaning. Let’s enjoy each week, especially one where we get to demolish MSU, as, if it comes. 

rd2w10

October 31st, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^

Off topic but what is your current work places policy on Coronavirus positives? I work on a flightline and if someone pops positive they just send him home for 10-14 days and business continues as usual. Is that pretty much the norm in the workplace?

RobM_24

October 31st, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^

At what point does the B1G just give up on the idea of making bowls and just extend the regular season and B1G "Finals" dates? I'd almost prefer that anyway.