What will it take for Michigan to make the tournament?
With 4 games remaining in the season, Michigan sits at 7-7 in the Big Ten and 17-10 overall; we are squarely on the bubble, but currently on the right side of it. I'm not a bracketology expert, so I wanted to pose a few scenarios to those who are more well versed in the subject.
I think it seems pretty clear that if we go 3-1 in our final four games, we are in safely (barring a blowout loss in the first round of the BTT). On the other hand, if we go 1-3 or worse we are out (barring a Big Ten Tournament Championship, or maybeeeeee a competitive loss in the finals).
Furthermore, if we go 2-2 AND win 2 or more games in the Big Ten tournament (make it to the semis or finals) we should be in. Conversely, 2-2 with a first round loss in the BTT means we're likely out.
Therefore, there are two scenarios that provide murkier outcomes, both involving Michigan going 2-2 in the rest of the regular season and winning just one game in the Big Ten tournament. This would mean Michigan would finish 20-13 overall, with a 10-10 record in the conference (including the tournament).
- The Most Predictable Outcome: Michigan finishes the Big Ten regular season 9-9 after beating both Rutgers and Nebraska on the road, but falling to Purdue in Crisler and Northwestern in Evanston. Michigan wins their first game in the Big Ten tournament, but loses game 2 in the quarterfinals to one of Wisconsin, Purdue or Maryland.
- One Upset Win and One Bad Loss: Michigan beats Rutgers, then splits its remaining games against tournament teams by picking up a big win against either Purdue or Northwestern, yet the Wolverines end the season on a sour note by dropping a bad loss in Lincoln to the Huskers. Once again, we win our Thursday game in D.C., but lose on Friday to a ranked team.
Of the two scenarios above, how likely would we be to make it? Would we have a chance in either? Is one of the scenarios better for our chances than the other?
I personally think it might be better to get another Top 50 win and lose to Nebraska, than just beat the teams we're supposed to beat.
February 20th, 2017 at 11:32 AM ^
I never let a few games influence my view of the program, I like to look at things on a macro level. Beilein teams have been especially atrocious on defense since the new block/charge rule was instituted in 2014. Michigan has finished 88th, 97th, 95th, and is currently 107th in adjusted defeciency this season. That means Michigan is essentially the worst defensive teams in major college basketball with about 50 mid major schools being better as well. Why is this important? Because no team has won a national title without finsishing in the top 25 in both offense and defense. Furthermore, since 1979 no team has won a national title without a McDonalds All American on its roster except UConn a few years ago. Beilein has been here 10 years and hasn't landed a McDonalds All American. The odds of Michigan winning a national title until these happen at UM are basically zero.
I never let a few wins vs free falling MSU and IU teams and a UW team without its best player color my opinion on this team. It is what it is. Good on offense, average to bad everywhere else. They are dead last in the conference in rebounding, second chance points, defense, etc. Beilein will never address these weakness in his program because he doesn't know how to. Beilein is the 6th highest paid coach in the country and Michigan just dropped $100 million into new facilities. The fact that the only expectation for this program is to make the tournament in year 10 is just sad. Beilein has either missed the tournament or been on the bubble 7 out of 10 years here.
Nike wants a new coach to pair with Harbaugh and I haven't been shy about my agreeable feelings. This story is getting old and feels all to familiar every year. Can't wait for this thread next year.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 1:39 PM ^
Nike has invested $173 million into UM, they are one of their few flagship schools. They want to start funneling high school players thru Michigan with the intent of signing them once they turn pro as well as capitalize on the marketing opportunities pairing a big name coach with Harbaugh would present. I've heard they think Michigan can do better than Beilein and want to assist in helping land the next guy. Lots of big name coaches want this job and the names would surprise most on this blog. This comes from someone extremely high up at Nike. TWFWIW.
February 20th, 2017 at 11:49 AM ^
Because sports fans in general are a fickle bunch. Especially passionate fans, and this is not unique to Michigan.
February 20th, 2017 at 10:33 AM ^
February 20th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
I will come back later to get enlightened, right now I gotta get my practice rounds in to get my drive to fly long and straight. Got my ass handed to me in a little unofficial pick up over at fire fighters.
February 20th, 2017 at 11:19 AM ^
Can't wait for this thread next year!
February 20th, 2017 at 12:09 PM ^
Just need to get to 20 wins. That is all. In for sure.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
I'd say 3-1 with a win over Purdue and we're off the bubble. Win a game in the first round of the BTT after that and I'd say you're a lock at that point.
The most likely scenario at this point, I'm thinking, is 2-2, beating Rutgers and Nebraska but losing to Purdue and Northwestern. I think Purdue will be close, but I think their size will just be way too much to overcome and we will (once again) get manhandled on the boards.
At 19-12, my gut says we're going to need two wins in the BTT to get in. So not getting upset by a PSU-esque team, and then knocking off a Maryland, Wisconsin or Purdue in the second round. If that doesn't happen, we're sweating out Selection Sunday. And I could see us being knocked out because we don't have a lot of quality wins, and we're too wildly inconsistent. There's no evidence of this team "peaking" or "getting hot at the right time," which is what the committee looks for first when they view teams in our range.
February 20th, 2017 at 12:46 PM ^
and one win in the tournament. Then I think we are in. What I'm hoping for is an upset win against Purdue at home and road wins at Rutgers and NE.
February 20th, 2017 at 1:06 PM ^