What is a P5 conference championship worth?
While looking at the criteria the CFP Selection Committee has created to rank teams, two items caught my eye. Those two criteria are: 1) Conference Championships, and 2) margin of victory should not influence any decisions.
My view is - "Yeah, sure. What are they smoking? And, could they possibly be less consistent in applying their criteria and reaching a decision?"
It will be December 4th before we understand how the Committee will actually apply the Conference Championship criteria, but - based on the discussion and talking heads - it could be very interesting, and inconsistent, to say the least.
In the SEC, if LSU somehow defeats Georgia in the SEC CCG - what will they do? Probably seed LSU 4th and drop Georgia to 2nd - depending on what else happens elsewhere. LSU will have one more regular season loss than Georgia will - but, LUS would be the conference champ. In other conferences, the Big 12 - most likely, if TCU is not an undefeated conference champion, they'll be on the outside looking in. In the Pac-12, they'll be watching the CFP unless USC wins their next three and winds up as a one loss conference champ (that one loss being by one point on the road against Utah where the difference was a two point conversion in the last minute of regulation).
It appears that the Selection Committee wants to promote Tennessee to the CFP - and, they definitely win not win their conference, or even their division.
So, do conference championships matter? Should they? With each action of the CFP Selection Committee, I am more convinced that this four team CFP format is nothing more than a beauty contest - period, and the term "conference championship" only applies when it serves their justification of SEC teams selected.
And, point two - margin of victory not being considered. Yeah - I'm buying into this one too. Just take a look at Tennessee over the next two games and let me know whether you think the Vols agree. They be up big, throwing the ball all over the field, and putting up six every chance they get.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
It depends entirely on the conference. B1G, PAC, Big 12 & ACC the conference champ will need to be either undefeated or have one loss to the make the final four.
SEC? Shit a team with three losses could probably get in given that in the mighty SEC all wins are quality wins and all losses are even higher quality losses - you know because of SEC. They've created an insiders game where even when they lose, they win. Or as Mastercard might say:
SEC Championship?
Priceless.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:38 AM ^
SEC teams in the playoffs will have to start losing games to non-SEC teams—especially in the championship game—in order for the pro-SEC bias to lessen. And even if they lose, non-SEC teams have to be more competitive than 34-11.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
There is a reason why Clemson is a honorary SEC team. It is a system where they continue to give advantage to certain teams. So eventually they will win and the theme goes on. Up until now, that team was Alabama. This year it is Georgia. It is sad that the committee is supposed to be full of people from different conferences. Yet, SEC dominates the narrative.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:42 PM ^
And even if they lose, non-SEC teams have to be more competitive than 34-11.
Does 27-13 count?
Because when you say "SEC teams in the playoffs" you really mean Alabama and Georgia (and LSU that one year). Admittedly those have been great teams. But is it fair to assume that Tennessee deserves benefit of the doubt because they happen to reside in a conference that is top heavy with those elite programs?
November 16th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
In all fairness, mGrow - The BIG overall has truly been weak this year compared to the SEC, the disparity between the two much larger than in years past.
With that being said - a one loss OSU or Michigan is a stronger candidate than Tennessee, IMO. But as you noted, the SEC bias will likely carry the day.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
Seth tweeted about this yesterday, the bottom of the B1G is really bad but the top 10 of each conference match up fairly well with only 2 games that would have a line of 3 or more on a neutral field (using SP+). Only Michigan and Illinois would be favored though.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
Bottom of B1G Mike, yes, weak as shit. Top of conference, no. I guess here's my point re the SEC bias:
Georgia loses SEC title game to LSU so they have one loss - they're definitely in
Tennessee wins out so they have one loss - they're probably in
OSU loses to Michigan so they have one loss - 50/50 they're in
Michigan loses to OSU so they have one loss - they're probably out
TCU loses in BIG 12 title game so they have one loss - they're out
USC wins out so they have one loss - they're probably out
Clemson wins out so they have one loss - they're probably out
SEC teams with one loss almost always get in. Everybody else it's either a coin flip depending on what other teams do or they're out. Watch - Tennessee will get in if they win out even though they wont have won their freaking division, much less their conference. And the committee will harumph and talk about how great their schedule was, you know, because SEC.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
The SEC bias is real and, as Don noted, it will continue until other conferences begin to beat SEC teams in the playoffs with some frequency. Of course, it is easier to win playoff games when you are invited to the playoff.
Last year was set up to fuel the bias. The SEC was handed favorable matchups and faced a non-power 5 team and first time playoff team in the first round. Putting two teams in the championship game last year will serve as a partial rationale for including multiple SEC teams this year.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
We already saw what happens when Tenn Plays Ga. They got crushed. Their vaunted offense had to score late to not make it look like a total blowout. Nobody wants a rematch of that.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
right... except for the fact that no 2-loss team has ever been selected, so this is ridiculous. Even #5 TAMU was left out in 2020
November 16th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
It dawned on me while watching the Tennessee v. Georgia game that the LOSER of that contest would have the easier path to the playoff: The usual SEC late-season FCS game, lop-sided rivalries, and no elite opponent to face in a Championship Game.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Onas,
Just in case you weren't aware, Tennessee played three "non Power 5" teams this season. Those three teams were: 1) Akron, 2) Ball State, and 3) UT- Martin (FCS).
Your perspective about the loser of the Georgia v TN game having an "easier" path - well, candidly, I'm "50/50" about that. And, my rationale is - the winner of the GA / TN game was basically "in" the SEC CCG, and - even with a loss in the SEC CCG (and the Selection Committee's approach) - that the team would be in.
My look at the moment is - assuming Georgia doesn't lose to either Kentucky or Georgia Tech these next two weeks, then Georgia, win or lose in the SEC CCG, will be in the playoff.
As for TN, they have to "hope" for the following: 1) Michigan and Ohio State don't "tie" their game, and 2) Georgia defeats LSU in the SEC CCG. If TCU and/or USC loses one of their next three - count them out, and Tennessee steps in.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:16 PM ^
I mean an "easier" path really because it involves less drama. Their work is done. My feelings are certainly biased by the fact that we Michigan fans always have our hardest game at the end of the season. Win or lose, it will be magnified right before selection time.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
If UM loses by a large margin, I can live with them not being in playoff. But I worry that UM loss, even by 1 point, will disqualify them because of SEC narrative. Georgia was given a chance to regroup last year. The same consideration not being given to B1G teams is not fair. OSU will probably be given special treatment because they have won NC in recent decade. You have to be in the in-crowd to be considered.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:47 PM ^
Good point about Georgia last getting another shot. Going into the playoff they had a weak schedule outside of the Alabama game, which they lost by 17. Their best win was a 10-3 win (sans offensive TD) over 9-3 Clemson, or maybe a Kentucky team that was about as good as Minnesota.
November 16th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
For Life - "special treatment because they have won an NC in the past decade".
Your point is fair, and I think this is part of how the Committee works - "the historically (or recent history) indicates they are a good team." However, with just four teams in the CFP - this shouldn't be a factor - the emphasis needs to be on THIS season - not how teams have performed in the past.
My view - Georgia was very strong last year, and though their D may not be quite as strong this year as they were in 2022 - they are a very good team. But, last year shouldn't matter. And, of course, we can't forget about Clemson. Clemson's had a solid record over the past six years (or so) - but, they weren't strong in 2021 and, IMO, don't look impressive this season either. Saban's built a dynasty in Tuscaloosa - but, this Bama squad is not as strong as its been in year's past.
I can only hope the selection committee doesn't look at this historical context - and evaluates the teams for their performance in 2022, and only 2022.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:44 PM ^
I believe the committee will actually be very kind to Michigan if they play well yet lose. "The Committee" has always trusted their eyes over every other consideration. Indications are that they believe that Michigan is more of a 2/3 team than they are a 4/5 team. At this point in the season, no team should expect to be able to get in if they have a bad game. I think the committee would be very pleased to have things work out so that their final ranking is 1. Georgia 2. OSU 3. Tennessee and 4. Michigan...and they would be fine with Michigan and OSU swapping places. This would be perfect for the committee.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:40 PM ^
The teams in will be the SEC Champ
B1G champ with 1 or zero losses
Undefeated champ from ACC, Pac12, Big 12.
If there are not at least 4 teams from above, the remainder of teams will be 1 or 2 loss SEC teams.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:35 AM ^
I agree conference championships should matter. I'll take it a step further than that and say the Power Five conference championships should be considered as a defacto first round of the CFP itself.
Group of Five teams shouldn't be in the running in this 4 team beauty contest. Yeah, the very best GoF teams can upset mediocre to good P5 teams on the right day when stars align, but no, those same teams wouldn't survive the week to week grind of a B1G or SEC....or even P12 slate.
The rough logic the CFP committee should use IMHO:
1) If all 5 conference champions have 0 to 1 loss, then take the top ranked 4. You'll have a championship of champions in that case. Note: Notre Dame is not in contention since they're not in a conference.
2) If 2 or more of the conference champions have 2 or more losses, then that opens the door to consider Notre Dame and/or non-conference champion teams with 1 loss for one of the slots not filled by a viable conference champion.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:27 AM ^
the Power Five conference championships should be considered as a defacto first round of the CFP itself.
So if Iowa somehow pulls off the upset in Indy, they should go to the CFP, despite having four losses?
November 16th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
No, because two losses , per step 2 in the logic, would disqualify that champion from representation in the CFP. B1G would be the odd conference out of consideration.
CFP would be made up of champs form ACC, SEC, P12 and B12.
If another conference had a similar situation, then that would open the door for Notre Dame or a highly ranked non-champion team to take the open slot...
November 16th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
haha so you'll take it one step further to say that conference champ games are de facto playoff games... but then you'll immediately take it one step back to say "not if they have 2 losses"
November 16th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
Yes. A good yet imperfect solution for an imperfect system - and - they system still worked as a defacto first round playoff (but not exactly as it would in the NFL) in your 4 loss Iowa win scenario because Iowa knocked off either Michigan or Ohio State from the semi-automatic bid (4 slots for 5 champs) and bumped them into the pool of 1 loss teams for consideration if four 0 to 1 loss conference champs are not available to fill all the slots.
Follow?
November 16th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
jm, I'm of the opinion "yes, a four loss B1G team from the West Division that wins the B1G CCG should be the first B1G team selected in the playoff".
This year, with a four team structure - that would likely mean - the B1G isn't selected to participate.
In the future, in a 12 team format, Iowa would be in - but, most likely, not be seeded 1 through 4, or receive a first round bye.
November 16th, 2022 at 1:29 PM ^
the Power Five conference championships should be considered as a defacto first round of the CFP itself
"Power Five" is a narrative that we really need to examine. It's a group that is based on general perception of TV coverage etc, but it's pretty fluid year to year as to how much those teams should be grouped together on quality level. Consulting SP+:
1. SEC: 11.7 average SP+ (33.4 average offensive SP+, 21.9 average defensive SP+)
2. Big 12: 11.5 average SP+ (35.7 offense, 24.3 defense)
3. Big Ten: 8.6 average SP+ (28.4 offense, 19.9 defense)
4. Pac-12: 5.1 average SP+ (33.3 offense, 28.2 defense)
5. ACC: 2.3 average SP+ (27.7 offense, 25.4 defense)
6. AAC: 0.7 average SP+ (30.5 offense, 29.8 defense)
7. Sun Belt: -2.2 average SP+ (25.1 offense, 27.3 defense)
8. Conference USA: -7.4 average SP+ (26.7 offense, 34.2 defense)
9. MWC: -10.8 average SP+ (18.2 offense, 28.9 defense)
10. MAC: -12.2 average SP+ (21.8 offense, 33.8 defense)
The ACC is much closer to the G5 conferences than they are to even the next-worst P5 conference. They are much closer to the Sun Belt than to the Big 10 (let alone Big 12 / SEC). As much controversy as undefeated Cincinnati generated for making the playoff as the AAC champion, the 2022 ACC is just 1.4 pts ahead of the 2021 AAC.
Additionally, Cincinnati beat a #7 SP+ Notre Dame on the road. Clemson lost by 21 in the same building to a much worse (#36 SP+) ND, and their best win right now is #19 FSU. Next best is #38 Louisville.
If we want to break it down by division for 2022, the ACC Coastal has a lower rating than the Sun Belt East. Even the far superior ACC Atlantic (where Clemson resides) is barely above the dreadful Big 10 West. It's not in the same universe as the SEC West, Big 10 East, and SEC East.
Therefore while I would be fine with a 13-0 (albeit winning unimpressively) Clemson sneaking in to the playoff at #4, a decisive loss to a mediocre ND should effectively eliminate them, sans 2007-level chaos.
There is also a narrative that the Big 10 is really awful this year, which by the popular power ratings isn't really true. SP+ has them 3rd at 8.6 (yes, down from 2nd/9.5 in 2021) but still well ahead of the Pac 12 and ACC. PiRatings has the Big 10 as their 2nd ranked conference, just ahead of the Big 12 and not too far behind the SEC. It generally gets bashed by dumber football fans/pundits because it isn't as great on offense (despite having the best defense).
All of this is with the caveat that every schedule should be examined independently without being fully conflated with "conference strength." E.g., Alabama has a much tougher schedule than Georgia this year, despite both having "SEC schedules."
November 16th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Newton, great analysis - thanks for sharing...
November 16th, 2022 at 3:35 PM ^
I'm a big believer that stats can say whatever you want, but that chart is pretty damning of the ACC.
I said a couple weeks ago that I thought Penn State would split against the 2nd 4 best ACC teams, but I believe I was wrong then. Not just by this analysis, just additional information since that poor statement. I now wonder if Penn State and NC/Clemson might be similar instead.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
If you're in the ACC, not a whole hell of a lot.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
I have been told that the correct answer is about 350.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:01 PM ^
Damn Loch Ness monster.
November 16th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
how many of these threads do we need? It's the same whining over and over again about a perceived beauty contest or about how the SEC gets all the teams in the playoff, but none of them have any real evidence to debate.
Can OP or anyone else share a previous CFB selection that proves their point? Is this just about frustration with how SEC teams are ranked and how that plays out into end-of-year scenarios?
Are we mad about Tennessee at 5? Should USC be higher than them? Clemson? UNC? No one else is 9-1. Should an 8-2 team be higher?
All this speculation about LSU beating UGA and both getting in over other conference champs is just speculation until it happens. It's also starting to look a lot like every other year where other conferences cannibalize their only CFB hopefuls like UCLA and Oregon last week.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
K,
If you wish a data point - then, I offer this. A few years ago, maybe 2016, Penn State won the B1G East Division and the CCG. During conference play, Penn State defeated OSU.
When the CFP made their selection - the first (and only) B1G team they selected for the playoff was Ohio State. And, in this case - Ohio State not only failed to win the division, failed to win the conference, but also lost "head to head" to Penn State.
Yes, Penn State was a two loss team - and Ohio State was a one loss team. However, Penn State, as noted above - defeated OSU "head to head" and won the division / conference.
IMO, this set a very poor standard.
My view is - if the Selection Committee invites a team from a conference to participate in the CFP, the first team they should select from that conference is - the conference's champion. If not, why bother even having a conference. We can just schedule FCS games for 11 weeks, have one conference game - and, go right to the beauty contest also known as the CFP - since, conference play doesn't seem to matter. Well, it doesn't matter if you're not a member of the SEC. IF you are a member of the SEC - then, you are given as many "do overs" as necessary.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
I think Ohio State went on to get blasted 31-0 in the Playoff too. Oof.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:36 AM ^
I think it gets messy because 1 loss teams are almost always going to be ranked higher than the 2 loss teams. If the committee starts caring more about the conference champions instead of the rankings, they would say so. (Not that I’m defending Ohio State. I wish nothing but pain for them.) If you select the conference champions, it makes the rankings useless.
2016 Penn State is a lot like LSU this year. A close loss to a very mediocre non-conference foe and an absolute ass kicking from one conference opponent. Why should a conference title erase that?
November 16th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Historian, When the playoff gets to 12 (or more) teams, this will probably be a moot question - since there will be "enough room" for conference champions (even if they are two loss teams) as well as other one loss teams who didn't win their division.
In 2016 - you are correct, Ohio State was selected and lost a very close game to Clemson, 31-0. It's worth noting that the Buckeyes were only down 17-0 at halftime, and 24-0 after the third quarter. The score is not indicative of how close the game actually was. (Yes, I 'm being sarcastic.)
I believe conference championships have value. And, regardless of whether the team that wins a conference championship is undefeated, or a "multiple loss team" from the other division - that: the first team selected to participate in the playoff from a conference MUST be that conference's champion.
In the case of ND and the ACC, I have always held the following perspective. The ACC AD's meet on the Saturday evening / Sunday morning after regular conference season play concludes - and, the ACC AD's decide which two teams will play in the ACC CCG. Those AD's have three options / choices - and will pick two. The three choices are: 1) ACC Coastal Division champ, 2) ACC Atlantic Division champ, and 3) ND. It would be quite an interesting choice if this was the option this year - because ND (should they defeat Boston College this weekend) - would have defeated both the division champs during the course of the regular season. ND has "made their bed" with the ACC; they play five (5) games against ACC member schools every season - whether they like it or not, there IS a conference affiliation - it's not formal, and - there isn't an eight (8) game conference schedule - but five games is enough for the AD's to figure this out.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
2016 Penn State is a lot like LSU this year. A close loss to a very mediocre non-conference foe and an absolute ass kicking from one conference opponent. Why should a conference title erase that?
Yeah. It's a very good comparison, actually, and if anything, LSU might have an even stronger case. Prior to the BTCG, PSU had the one, very fluky win over OSU, had a win over a (surprisingly) fringe top-25 Temple, and their only other win over a team with a winning record was a thumping of 8-4 Iowa. Plus they lost to a mediocre Pitt, and got annihilated by us (49-10). While Bama isn't as good as OSU was that year, LSU's win wasn't what I would called fluky--they were in it the whole game, while PSU was thoroughly outplayed and pulled it out on the back of two blocked kicks. Plus LSU has wins over a good Ole Miss team (PSU had no comparison in the regular season), in addition to Miss St. and Florida (vs. Temple and Iowa for PSU).
The fact of the matter is that PSU had no business making the playoff that year. A fluky win over OSU and a BTC don't negate a 39 point loss to us and a loss to a mediocre non-con team.
November 16th, 2022 at 3:56 PM ^
I shouldn't still be triggered by this 6 years later --- but the meme that has taken hold among some over the years that "PSU was thoroughly outplayed (by OSU in 2016)" just isn't true.
For the record, you are correct on one thing --- there WERE 2 blocked kicks in that PSU/OSU game. But PSU didn't block 2 kicks. PSU blocked one FG and so did OSU. OSU also got an "easy" 5 points off of 2 PSU self-committed errors ("fluke plays?") on separate punt plays.
All that said, PSU shouldn't have made the playoffs in 2016. But that's because of the Pitt game --- not because of either OSU or U-M. If PSU had beaten Pitt, they would have been in.
November 16th, 2022 at 9:19 PM ^
Couple things. On the outplayed comment, I'm just going off memory from watching the game (my memory was that PSU was getting thoroughly outplayed until the blocked kicks got them ahead at the end), and then looking at the box score stats. And the stats seem to back that up. For example, total yards (413 to 276), 3rd down efficiency (9 of 22 to 2 of 13), time of possession (37:19 to 22:41), etc. But look, I don't have a dog in this fight, so if you think PSU wasn't as outplayed as the stats seem to imply, I'm not going to fight you on it.
But PSU didn't block 2 kicks.
You're wrong here, PSU absolutely blocked two kicks, on consecutive possessions in the 4th quarter. They blocked a punt for a short field that set them up for the FG that cut OSU's lead to 21-17, and then on OSU's next possession blocked the FG and returned it for the TD that put them ahead for good.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/400869645
4th & 7 at OSU 28
(11:42 - 4th) TEAM punt blocked by Cameron Brown
1st & 10 at OSU 28
(11:10 - 4th) Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 8 yds to the OhSt 20. . .
4th & 0 at OSU 16
(9:33 - 4th) Tyler Davis 34 yd FG GOOD
Embed doesn't seem to work with the start time, but go to 24:40:
November 16th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
OK, thanks for a specific case. I think a lot of people would disagree with your take, which seems (to me) not to say "conference champs matter" but instead "conference champs matter more than anything else, & if they don't, they're pointless" - in which case, why then have the non-conference at all?
I think the better approach factors in everything, which is why we have humans trying to wade through all of the factors. In 2016, OSU lost at PSU by 3. They also didn't lose to an 8-5 Pitt or get crushed by UM. I'm all for conference champs getting a tiebreak, but I don't think those teams were equivalent.
All of this is irrelevant, of course, given the 12-team model. Which is another part of why I'm confused about all these threads.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:30 PM ^
ke, I can certainly accept that my view is not the "commonly held view" - and, this is something which, obviously, many people have a perspective about. I respect different views.
What I have the greatest issue with is - there is no consistency. The Selection Committee has been "all over the place", and this season is no exception. In week one, IIRC, TCU was "knocked down" because they had been behind in several games this season. And, in fact, other teams - notably Georgia and Clemson, who were ranked ahead of TCU - were "behind" in games earlier this season as well. So, it was a double standard - and, THAT was / is an issue I have.
The 12 team model will solve a lot of this, I agree - and, it can't be implemented soon enough, AFAIC.
As for 2016 - you are correct - Penn State did have two losses. A close loss to Pitt (3 points in an away game in Pittsburgh), and though Penn State defeated OSU during conference play, Penn State also lost handily to Michigan. Michigan defeated them 49-10 in Ann Arbor.
Your point about "why have a non-conference at all". Hmm. I think OOC can be very enjoyable for fans. I think there is something to be considered - but, perhaps not weigh it "super" heavily - especially for opening games. This season is an example of the OOC schedule impacting how teams are perceived - three games immediately come to mind - 1) Oregon at Georgia (though it was technically, a neutral site game played in Atlanta), 2) Florida State vs LSU, and 3) ND at Ohio State. In all three cases, IMO, the team that lost those games has improved noticeably during the course of the season - Oregon (until last Saturday) and LSU - would be two of the teams with the biggest improvement.
This improvement leads to another point of discussion - and that is - does the Committee really understand that teams improve during the course of the season - OR - do they discount it, and "never forget" that OOC loss. Again, my view is - the Committee has selective memory and applies what it wishes to support its desired ends - and, that inconsistency creates an issue for me.
Thanks for the exchange of thoughts / perspectives.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:03 AM ^
Important to win the SEC championship, unless you don't qualify for it, in which case your failure to win it is no problem.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:18 AM ^
SF - if I may ask you to confirm... the logic may be as follows...
IF <your team> is a undefeated P5 conference champion - you are a "maybe" for selection.
IF <your team> is a one loss P5 conference champion - you will not be selected.
IF <your team> is a member of the SEC - you are automatically considered for participation in the CFP - even if your conference record is 0-8, you're still entered into consideration.
And, the general guideline is - a conference's limit of participants is one: unless, you are a member of the SEC, in which case the "team limit" in the four team CFP is "four". When the CFP expands to 12, the "team limit" for SEC teams will increase to.. "twelve".
November 16th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Oh, I get it, you're a troll. Above you gave a specific case, and now this blather...
1. Wrong. No undefeated P5 team has ever not made it
2. Wrong. A P5 11-1 champ may be left out. It happened in 2014 (Big 12 shared champs before conference champ game) and in 2018 (Big 10 12-1 champ OSU behind 3 undefeateds and 12-1 OU)
3. ???
November 16th, 2022 at 2:08 PM ^
ke,
Please don't interpret my comment as trolling. However, I do feel that there is a great deal of attention to the SEC.
It was certainly either "tongue in cheek", or sarcastic in nature.
If I had a wish - it would be the following. The CFP would be 8 teams. P5 champions regardless of their record, or how they were determined, are automatically invited - and, there would be three "other" teams invited as well. The Selection Committee would determine the "other three".
My suggestion for the "other three" would be - A) strongest Group of Five conference champion, and B) two (2) additional "At-Large" teams. Those two additional At-Large teams could include - another Group of Five conference champion or other teams who did not win their conference.
The point I would drive is - every P5 team controls their own destiny at the beginning of a season. That destiny is - "win your conference, and you're in the playoff". My view - it's objective, not subjective. In my model, the two At-Large teams can participate in a beauty contest - the P5 champions are objective.
November 16th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
I wouldn't mind having one
November 16th, 2022 at 12:09 PM ^
Chaos scenario:
- LSU (2 losses) beats UGA (1 loss)
- USC (1 loss) wins out
- Clemson (1 loss) wins out
- TCU (0 loss) wins out
- Michigan (0 loss) wins out
So you have 2-loss SEC champ LSU who just beat #1 - has to be in the top 4, right?
But former #1 UGA only lost once to the SEC champ - has to be in, right?
And undefeated Michigan wins the B1G - has to be in, right?
But TCU is also undefeated - has to be in, right?
But 1-loss USC won the Pac over ranked UW, UO, UCLA, and ND - how do you keep them out?
and 1-loss Clemson wins the ACC - how do you keep them out?
If they favor championships, would it be LSU, UM, TCU, and one of USC/Clemson over UGA?
Or do two 1-loss conference champs get beaten out by 1-loss non-champion UGA? That's not great, either, if conference championships should matter. But how do you justify dropping #1 UGA to #5, at best?
What I think should happen in that scenario:
- LSU is out - their losses were bad losses, especially getting stomped by TN.
- UM, TCU are definitely in at 1/2
- USC is in - good ranked wins
- UGA is in - Clemson's loss to ND was pretty bad. Sure, they don't take into account margin of victory, but the eye test don't lie in this case. They have major issues at QB while UGA... does not.
1 UM vs 4 Clemson
2 TCU vs 3 USC
That would be an interesting playoff.
November 16th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
agree this is the worst scenario for the selection committee. A 1-loss P5 champ has been left out before, but not for a 1-loss non-champ.
It would be hard for me to say LSU is a better team than UGA if they beat them in a fluky fashion, given the losses.
I don't think your slate of 4 is possible though
November 16th, 2022 at 12:28 PM ^
So you have 2-loss SEC champ LSU who just beat #1 - has to be in the top 4, right?
I don't think LSU would have to be in. The way I see it, undefeated M (or OSU) would be #1, undefeated TCU would be #2, and 12-1 USC would be #3 (with additional wins over UCLA, ND, and either Oregon or avenging their one point road loss to Utah, USC would be in).
That leaves 12-1 UGA, 12-1 Clemson, 11-1 Tenn and 11-2 LSU fighting for the last spot. My money would be on UGA at #4 (what a prize for getting the #1 seed, unless the committee took pity and put them #3 with USC #4), with Clemson having a decently legitimate gripe that would ultimately fail because of how shitty they've looked all year.