What's the next big offense formation trend - and why?
I for one am sick of all the gesticulating on this board given Michigan's woes so how about something different? What in your opinion will be the next ubiquitous offense fomation trend across college football *after* the spread?
We've seen, for example, single wing, double wing, T- and wing T, wishbone, pro style all have their day ... now the spread in various incarnations has become virtually ubiquitous across college football (I'm guessing 90% of FCS run a version of it). These cycles seem to run in 1-2 decade durations.
My opinion for the little it's worth, and not to be Debbie Downer but, until the passing game is discouraged (e.g. more restrictive pass blocking, more illegal man downfield calls), I don't see the spread ever going away. I would love to say, "Behold, what's old is new again" when the Wing T or Triple Option comes back into fashion but an effective passing game is too difficult out of those formations and history has proven that if you can pass easily, you will pass easily or suffer your doom (if we could ask Bo, I'm sure he'd agree in hindsight about all those Rose Bowls).
It's too easy and effective to build a decent offense with zone blocking, simple route combos and wide splits. Plus, in college you can use the QB as another runner since passing schemes are currently simplistic and a spread doesn't demand a franchise QB to protect at all costs. We've all witnessed Michigan's pain and suffering involved in rebuilding a pro style power / gap blocking offense. While IMO the pro style offense is the most efficient and brutally effective contemporary offense, it comes at a painful implementation cost ...
By the way, if you want to see just how brutally efficient and demoralizing a good pro style offense can be, watch the St. Thomas D3 playoff game tomorrow (D3football.com). You'll be hooked watching good power football online with no commercials. While I bleed maize and blue, I also became a St. Johns, MN fan when they beat Mount Union in 2003 for the National Championship and I consider St. Johns and St. Thomas THE gold standard for pro style power offense. St. Johns runs mostly the mid 80s Michigan I formation and single back sets, including my beloved sprint option.
November 25th, 2017 at 12:00 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 12:00 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
To rob f and SFBlue: I agree but Stitt and Chip Kelly are merely evolving the spread. Theirs is evolution not revolution. I would throw Guz Malzan in with them.
One cool thing I saw on Youtube was a triple option out of the shotgun spread. If I were a HS or college coach I'd at least do a long analysis of this. Actually I'd also keep the shotgun spread and consider doing Wing T and Single Wing concepts from it. Making a defense account for 2-3 backs with the ball EVERY play is very effective, plus you keep the natural passing game intact
November 25th, 2017 at 12:09 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 12:51 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 1:09 AM ^
about DCs at the NFL level worried about the multiple TE offense and yes, I'm talking about 2 wide and two in the slots. They felt this would be impossible to defend and when I thought Harbaugh was headed this way due to just how difficult it could be and how much you could simply abuse opposing DCs with an accurate qb I did some research and found the piece. I tried to copy and bring it up for a gentleman i was discussing it with on Touch the Banner but I could not do so for some reason.
There are so many obvious advantages, especially with the speed of many of our TEs who, in fact could be considered Dual Threat, I guess. Many of them can block and catch and we've seen the speed of both Eubanks and Gentry. I believe the major concern is there just would not be enough dbs to adequately defend a heavy formation like this. That is how I referred to it as Heavy. Hell you could flip the field with just one TE playing solo on one side. The running out of this would be entertaining as well, and yes, you could use a TE or two in the backfield.
I thought if anyone would do it at the college level, it would be our HC.
November 25th, 2017 at 2:04 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 7:06 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 7:58 AM ^
He was on the receiving end of a targeting call against Purdue. Hasn't been seen since... Really hope the kid is okay.
November 25th, 2017 at 12:16 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 8:59 AM ^
Please, please, please run it just once today, even if they call the penalty.
It will be on Sports Center highlights for the rest of the year.
Might as well have some fun.
November 25th, 2017 at 12:13 AM ^
But no seriously, I want the power game and strong passing attack and have nice trick plays and wrinkles, execute that well with the talent we'll usually have and we'll be fine no matter what gimmick offense is en vogue.
And a damned good Don Brown type defense!
November 25th, 2017 at 3:11 AM ^
I'm sure passing was once considered a gimmick.
"Why are they throwing the ball? They're supposed to RUN the ball dammit. Don't they know this game is called FOOTball?!?!?"
November 25th, 2017 at 12:21 AM ^
a11 lwith 2-4 linemen wont work with speed of college and pro.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/A-11_offense
November 25th, 2017 at 12:28 AM ^
Spread will continue to evolve and player skill sets will to adapt. I think you'll see a lot more positionless players at skill positions. RB/TE/WR all rolled into one will become frequent and they'll all be able to line up all over the field and in the backfield. Maybe incorporate a lot more old school triple option but out of a shotgun spread look with these types of players. So, run pass options taken to a much higher level will be a next trend.
November 25th, 2017 at 12:38 AM ^
The next trend will be the binary offense, that is an offense that only runs two formations, where the two formations run are almost opposite in nature. A very rudimentary run heavy triple option or single wing type formation on some plays, and on other plays basically an air raid style spread setup. Two quarterbacks that are always in on every play so you can run tempo, and most of the receivers need to be tweener WR/TE types. The challenge would be to find a good passing quarterback that can either block or run so he can execute the air raid plays, while not being useless in the run heavy set. A guy like Gentry might be perfect. Or I guess you could sub the different QBs in and out with the play calls if you want to grind clock. You'll obviously tip your hand, but in both systems separately you pretty much know what's coming anyway.
November 25th, 2017 at 12:53 AM ^
Triple option with three simultaneous dual threat qb's, and a nightmare of wrinkles and players leaking out...
November 25th, 2017 at 12:55 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 1:10 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 3:09 AM ^
A few teams have adapted plays from the A-11 offense for 2 point tries.
That said, I think to maximize any future (exotic) offense you'll need an elite dual threat who excels at passing - someone like Deshaun Watson. (He was tearing up the NFL as a rookie.)
A QB who can escape/evade the rush, scramble for yards, or extends plays challenges the defensive integrity of even elite NFL defenses.
November 25th, 2017 at 7:33 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 7:50 AM ^
1. The pro game seeing a lot of spread run-pass QBs becoming available changes their approach and becomes more like the college game. Teams rather than seeking a "franchise" QB like so many have sought the Holy Grail, the head waters of the Nile, the Northwest Passage over the pole to East Asia and an easier route than the Oregon Trail, instead have on their roster 3 QBs and play all three during the year. They don't expect one QB to be able to run and pass and survive a whole season. This will then change the college game as well.
2. Defenses have yet to find a consistent answer to the spread based attacks. Attacking defenses and players in the "viper" role seem to be the trend - there will always be someone sent on every play against the QB.
Go Blue!
November 25th, 2017 at 8:13 AM ^
A few NFL team have made it work, but I'd stop short of saying that it's caught on, yet. Russell Wilson, DeSean Watson, Cam Newton, and a couple others, have done very well. But they're pocket passing first, then running. They don't have a lot of called runs, and most of the yards are on delayed draws and RPO type stuff. Aside form the RPOs, I wouldn't call them a RR style spread offense.
I just don't think enough of the spread QBs in college are good enough throwing the ball to make iti in the NFL. Barrett is a great QB - in college. He won't play there in the NFL because he can't throw it form the pocket to save his life.
Honestly, Dylan McCaffrey might be the type of QB that can run Carolina's offense like Newton does. He ran a heavy run offense, with a LOT of called runs, in HS. He's got the legs to run a fair bit, but is bu no stretch a RR QB. Can't wait to see what he can do with Harbaugh. But he's got to beat out Peters, first...
November 25th, 2017 at 8:15 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 9:15 AM ^
I was watching a video of the 1954 Michigan-Ohio State game when i was trying to figure out when they switched to home color and away white unis for The Game (best guess: 1956).
I watched Michigan's first drive on offense. I was surprised how much it looked like a modern offense: shotgun snaps, some RPO's, some read and handoff's, and a bunch of counters off of that (watch the play at 3:17, it's awesome. I had to watch it twice to see what was actually going on.)
Offenses from 60 years ago looked more similar to today's offenses than offenses from 20 years ago.
The point of this is that things evolve in cycles, as a counter to what is currently going on.
People think that the Manball offenses of 20, 30 years ago were just the natural state of football until we evolved from that. But those offenses themselves evolved from previous offenses.
My guess as to the next big thing is an offense that counters the smaller speedier LBs and DBs that have evolved to defend spread offenses.
Of course, each new evolution adds in its own new twists as well. Each cycle does not just repeat a previous cycle.
Manball 2.0 anyone?
November 25th, 2017 at 8:55 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 9:13 AM ^
I sort of wonder if we're at the platonic ideal for college offenses right now. The rules are set up to encourage passing, recruiting is such that every team has access to the type of speed and athleticism that used to be far more concentrated at the top end of college athletics, and with coaching turnover more common, installing some uncommon, recruiting-dependent system isn't viable.
If I had to guess, I could see some of the more elite teams going a bit bigger. With a finite number of Mo Hursts in the world, the top teams would stock up on first-rounder types and then run some of the hybrid spread/pro style sets where you leverage having some mobility at QB but also just use your 5* back and stacked offensive line to grind someone down the field. You see it now with defenses getting smaller to better compete with athletes in space, so if you suddenly went bigger then you force these guys who stand up to larger bodies they simply can't. This isn't news or anything (we heard about teams going big when Bert went to Arkansas, for example). But Wisconsin, Stanford, etc. have sustained sucess with moderate recruiting strengths with approaches similar to this (Stanford moreso than UW, which seems content to have a passer-only QB), and I could see that being a bigger trend.
But these are all changes at the fringes. I don't think we'll see a return to the Wing T or anything.
November 25th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 10:41 AM ^
November 25th, 2017 at 10:48 AM ^
It has to be the RPO. Teams are starting to line up for RPOs. You can tell it is a big point of influence in the offseason.
November 25th, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
I don't see why you wouldn't favor a pass heavy offense at any level right now. The bulk of targeting calls are on the QB and "defenseless" receivers. So there's a lot of 15 yard penalties and automatic first downs out there. Plus a lot of ticky tack PI calls. A consistent running attack has none of those built in advantages. But I think rush heavy football is safer frankly. Most of the knockout hits you see are on pass plays both offense and defense. I'd like to see offensive PI called more consistently, and especially illegal pick plays which are spotty calls.
November 25th, 2017 at 11:41 AM ^