Updated Post; Every Conference Championship Outcome: Playoff Possibilities
Early in the week, I posted all 32 possibilities based on the CCG outcomes. There are now 16 possibilities. Here are my projected outcomes for each scenario. Biggest controversy is the 1-loss Alabama vs 1-loss Texas debate. I think Alabama unseating 2-time defending national champion with a 29 game win streak should and will outweigh a head to head loss from September. Talk amongst yourselves.
For a Michigan win:
G win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Texas
G win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Mich 3) Wash 4) Ohio St
G loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU
G loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) Georgia
Michigan is by far the biggest favorite in their game, but here are these useless outcomes for a Michigan loss anyways:
G win, FSU win, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) FSU 4) Texas
G win, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) FSU
G win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
G win, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Ohio St
G loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Texas
G loss, FSU win, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) FSU 3) Alabama 4) Mich
G loss, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Texas 4) Mich
G loss, FSU loss, Texas loss: 1) Wash 2) Alabama 3) Mich 4) Georgia
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
I think overall resume is more important than head to head (which is why Oklahoma will not be considered despite beating Texas head to head). Alabama and Texas both had shaky wins against crap teams. Alabama's win over Georgia would give them the better resume, and I think that wins out over head to head consideration.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
So we should disregard that Texas literally beat Alabama to prove they are the better team and has the same record and both are conference champs?
That's not going to happen no matter the circular logic.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
You have GA in over OSU if GA loses in some scenarios but I don’t know man… GA’s loss would be to a lower ranked 1 loss team whereas OSU loss is to an undefeated top 2 team. OSU’s loss would look better. We really just need Texas and FSU to take care of business.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
The Georgia loss, Texas loss, FSU loss scenario.
In those cases, OSU/Georgia is definitely a tough call that wouldn't be without controversy. Slight edge for OSU in the "better loss" category, agreed. I think Georgia's dominant outings over Missouri, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are better than OSU's ugly wins over PSU and Notre Dame. I also think Georgia gets the edge as the 2 time defending national champ.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
This season is practice for a 12 team playoff. It's a 10 team playoff. Between yesterday and today, there are 5 games that are win-and-advance, lose and drop out.
It's awesome. Every game matters.
I cannot recall a conference championship weekend that was like this. Last year, for example, you had multiple teams that were in the CFP, win or lose their conference championship.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
It is awesome this year. But the weird thing is that next year we'll have the 12 team playoff, but still have these conference championship games.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:43 AM ^
They'll be playing for those first round byes. Or for teams like Iowa and Louisville, for a ticket to the playoff.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
I wonder how long that will last?
You will often be in a better position for the 12 team CFP as a team not making your conference championship and risking a loss.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Disagree which is why even with a loss a team like Georgia should get in over OSU. How do you penalize a team for playing an extra game against a tough opponent. You can't.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Two conferences rooting against Texas: The SEC and their own.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
Deleted. Misread the original
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Two conferences rooting against a team: The SEC and their own.
Hey, just like us!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
How are your figuring that Alabama winning would move them (or Texas) ahead of undefeated FSU if they win into the 3 spot? Seems possible, but like a total toss up to me
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
I figure undefeated FSU MUST be in the top 4, but I think they're only included begrudgingly. So FSU > Texas or Alabama when it comes to deciding who's in or out, but among any qualifiers, FSU is 4th. If anything, I think I should correct the two scenarios in which i had FSU ranked 2nd.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
If Bama can get in over Texas then the playoff field needs to be set before the season. Because clearly results don't matter.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^
Nobody will ever schedule a tough OOC game again.
Your schedule will just be non-conference tomato can teams and then your conference opponents.
Hey, just like us!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
"G loss, FSU win, Texas win: 1) Mich 2) Wash 3) Alabama 4) FSU"
Whoa, I really don't think you are on the right track here; I don't see how you can jump Alabama over Texas if they are both 12-1 conference champions. 1-Michigan, 2-Washington are clearly correct, but the next 2 teams in would pretty much have to be Texas and Florida State. FSU I think as #3, but I could see them swapping with Texas so #1 would have the easiest path.
Here's how I see the committee ranking the teams:
Georgia (with a WIN)
Michigan (with a WIN)
Washington
Florida State (with a WIN)
Texas (with a WIN)
Alabama (with a WIN)
Georgia (with a LOSS)
Michigan (with a LOSS)
Ohio State
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
This seems to line up with what I posted a few days ago, when subtracting out an Oregon win from the possibilities.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
For what it’s worth, I think this is the most likely scenario—I’d bet on this one.
G win, FSU loss, Texas win: 1) G 2) Wash 3) Mich 4) Texas
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
How do you get Washington jumping Michigan if both teams win?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
If you rooted for Washington to beat Oregon last night please don't complain when OSU backs in again. The first domino fell last night.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Maybe. I think OSU might have been in over 1-loss Washington anyway.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Washington losing last night should've been a bigger obstacle for OSU to get in, not a smaller one.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
You have it backwards, a Washington win locks in 1 of the 4 spots. OSU wanted Washington to lose. The ONLY way OSU gets in was for Washington, UGA, Texas, and FSU to all lose, then hope for some mind bending logic.
In this scenario, only 1 spot would be locked in, Michigan at 1. Then you would have 5 - 1 loss teams (UGA, Bama, Wash, Oregon, and OSU) debating for the final 3 spots. Texas would be out with 2 losses... I would suspect that 1 SEC team gets a ticket (the winner of the SEC Championship game) and 1 PAC12 (my guess would have been Oregon) team gets a ticket. That would leave OSU debating with the other SEC (Championship loser) / PAC12 (Washington in my scenario) team for the final spot. And even then, that would be far from a lock to get the final spot...
With Washington winning, that only locked OSU out of 1 of 3 spots to get in... Now OSU has to hope for a FSU loss, Texas loss and UGA loss...
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^
As you said, P12 has a locked up spot either way, so last night's game didn't change that.
OSU vs 2 loss Oregon is more favorable to OSU than OSU vs 1-loss Washington. That's the OP's point and you seem to disagree while confirming their logic.
OSU was likely in ahead of a second pac-12 team anyway, so I think last night's game was irrelevant.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
I'm not convinced Ohio State gets in if Fla State and Texas lose. Why would a team with their only loss is the Championship get in over one who didn't even play in one?
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Winning a conference championship is a +. Playing in one is not. I think they go back to complete resumes when comparing non-conference champions. OSU's is better than FSU's.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
TCU got in last year and was seeded above OSU, which tells me the exact opposite is true.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
Seeding OSU above TCU would've resulted in an immediate B10 vs B10 semifinal, which the committee considers when seeding. That should help explain the discrepancy you've identified.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Idk, I understand the point. But also head to head has to matter. Past year's results simply can't factor in, the Georgia team is a much different set of players.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
Beat Iowa!
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Still think if we get chalk the CFP committee does mental gymnastics to put Texas in over FSU. It isn't too uncommon in the NCAA tournament for teams to be punished for injuries and star player availabilities. I think the combination of a bad conference and no star QB will be weighed into FSU's placement.
Its a larger stretch when it comes to a Georgia loss and subsequently trying to put two 1 loss teams in over an undefeated conference champion. But you don't have to look that hard at the Florida/FSU game to see how this current construction of the Seminoles roster barely surpassed a sub .500 sec team.
As a Michigan fan I want FSU FSU FSU, lets go Noles! But thats also what Washington is saying. As well as Georgia. CFP hears and knows this. Im interested to see what ultimately happens. Beat Iowa.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Undefeated P5 teams are in. Period.
December 2nd, 2023 at 1:55 PM ^
That was two periods.
December 3rd, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
Sooooo
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
I think we all agree that given the choice we would like to play FSU round 1. I think the only spot FSU will get is #4. If Alabama impressively beats Georgia I think they jump to #3. Texas is the wildcard because if they also win impressively and say FSU wins an ugly one…the committee will have 3 conference champs vying for 2 spots. One team is undefeated. The other (Alabama) would have the most impressive win, the other is the only team to win a head-to-head. In that scenario I see it being: 1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. Alabama, 4. Texas.
I would say that our rooting interests today are FSU, Alabama, and Okie St
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
I know your predictions are probably more realistic, this is just me bitching.
IDC how or when Bama lost to Texas, Texas literally beat them, mano a mano...(on their own field, no less). The fact that it was "all the way back in September" (as if that was somehow a long time ago), is irrelevant. I absolutely despise CFP committee logic.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Would love to see Michigan V Fla St in round 1
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
We all would
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^
Not gonna lie, it's nice seeing the increased number of paths with a loss tonight. And Texas and Georgia will be knowns before kickoff.