TCU or Baylor?

Submitted by superstringer on

What's our impartial consensus -- if there is to be a BigXII team in the playoffs for the national championship trophy that looks like a female body part, should it be TCU or Baylor?

If you saw the news today, the BigXII has decided that it won't name it's conf champion (=Baylor) but will "submit both teams" to the Committee to pick which should go to the playoff.  The BigXII claims it's not the BigXII's business to determine who the BigXII champion is, but the national committee should do that.  Yikes.  BUT, if one team (=TCU) goes to the playoff, then the other team (=Baylor) will then be declared by the conference to be the conference champion, guaranteeing it a spot in another big bowl.  There's a term for this:  trying to have your cake and eat it too.

Anyhoo, I am strongly believing that Baylor deserves to go b/c it beat TCU.  Otherwise it's certainly not recognizing the conference champion (even if the conference won't say those words, yet), and it's really minimizing the impact of the most key evaluation -- head on head.

Sure TCU might have had the better season against common opponents and played a tougher nonconf schedule, BUT, they played a round robin in the conference, so to me, head to head should decide it.

Now, watch K-State klunk Baylor next week and moot the point.

Wolverine91

December 1st, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^

Purple is nicer than the shit green color that Baylor runs out with. But, they're both good teams.

Avon Barksdale

December 1st, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^

I'll take:

Alabama
Oregon
Florida State
TCU (Baylor will lose to KSU)

Alabama beats TCU 37-17
Oregon beats Florida State 39-33
Alabama beats Oregon 27-21 (and we all cry having to hear "SEC SEC SEC" all winter again).

93Grad

December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^

Can you imagine how upset you would be if we had the same record as OSU and beat them head to head, but the committee chose OSU?  Hell, we don't even have to go that far back to a time when the Big 10 basically did that to Michigan and Michigan fans are still upset about it.

Humen

December 1st, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^

I think a 2-loss Arizona would be more deserving (and would be at 11 wins, like them assuming both win). It really is hard to separate TCU and Baylor though. I like TCU for the OOC and victory margin. TCU's loss to Baylor was one of those coin flip games.



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Muttley

December 1st, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^

The criteria for selection is described in a manner giving the committee great discretion:

They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings

Still, they do cite conference championships, and in practice, IMO for two teams from the same conference to be chosen would require an overwhelming perception that the 2nd team is head-and-shoulders above the alternatives.

My guess as to the repercussions of various upsets:

1. Ariz(11-2) over Ore(11-2)
   1a. OSU(12-1) (Playskool good) replaces Ore
   1b. Ariz replaces Ore (Playskool shaky)
2. GT(11-2) over FSU(12-1)
   2a.OSU(12-1) replaces FSU(12-1) (Playskool good)
   2b.Ariz(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1)
    2c.GT(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1), or not
3. KSU(10-2)/ISU over Bay(10-2)/TCU(10-2)
   3a.OSU(12-1) replaces Big12(10-2) (Playskool good)
   3b.Ariz(11-2) replaces Big12(10-2) spot
   3a.KSU(10-2) takes Big12(10-2) spot
4. Mizz(11-2) over Bama(11-2)
   4a Everyone screams "Nooo!!!"
   4b OSU(12-1) replaces Bama (Playskool good)
   4c.Ariz(11-2) replaces Bama
   4d.GT(11-2) replaces Bama
   4e Mizzou replaces Bama if Mizz is dominant
   4f Bama stays if close game
5. Wisc(11-2) over OSU(11-2)
   • Wiscy needs to find an unfilled slot above

ESNY

December 1st, 2014 at 8:51 PM ^

The only teams in my mind that have a shot are

Bama

Oregon

FSU

TCU
Baylor

OSU

Arizona

Very slim but unlikely GT or Wisconsin

I'm thinking that if any of the top 5 or 6 teams lose, they are out.  Zero chance of a loss and still making it, even for the blind Bama/SEC boosters unless all the top lose.  If Bama, FSU, Oregon, TCU, Baylor and OSU lose, I think Arizona would replace Oregon, Baylor may stay up, doubt GT or Wisconsin could sneak in and think they would keep Bama and FSU

UMgradMSUdad

December 1st, 2014 at 6:33 PM ^

Definitely TCU.  If not, then don't count OOC games at all, since Baylor's OOC schedule is a joke. Their best OOC opponent was a MAC team that lost to EMU and just fired its coach.

Lampuki22

December 1st, 2014 at 6:58 PM ^

When Sparty was ranked above Oregon after losing to them on the road by 19?

That drove me nuts. Glad the season sorted that out. Sparty is still overrated in the top 10-12.

Turn Texas Blue

December 1st, 2014 at 7:15 PM ^

This is, of course, assuming they both win this weekend. With the round robin format of the new Big 12, head-to-head is king. While TCU may actually be the better team, with the same record, Baylor has to be the Big 12 champs. If leagues/committees start making subjective decisions based on feelings ball, there isn't why take anything into consideration except how you feel about a team?

UMinSF

December 1st, 2014 at 7:43 PM ^

To me, Baylor deserves to get screwed because they chose to fill their schedule with crap. If there are consequences, then hopefully we will see much better OOC schedules.

DFW_Michigan_Man

December 1st, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^

Is better than Baylor. I understand that Baylor won the H2H, but that was a 3 point game in Waco. With the exception of Florida State who somehow remains undefeated, everyone else has a H2H loss against somebody, and TCUs lone loss is to 6th ranked Baylor.

Jack Harbaugh

December 1st, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^

This. College football is an amateur sport. Why do we need a professional system to determine who the best team is? The thing that was unique about it is fading away into the distance. What makes NCAA BB unique? A single elimination 64 team tournament. What makes NCAA FB unique? The bowl system. Rewarding GOOD teams for their work all season by going to a warm area and playing a team similar to them. Bring back the B1G vs PAC-12 Rose Bowl over this any day of the week. These players will have years of determining who is better when they're in the NFL playing for a contract and not for a team.

bronxblue

December 1st, 2014 at 8:26 PM ^

The issue is who is better now, not 2 months ago.  I get why it applies when teams are playing multiple times against each other or a game is a blowout, but a 3-point win/loss early on in the year doesn't tell me much about either club as it pertains to games in January.

They are both very explosive teams with some holes in their game, so I guess it comes down to whether or not you think Baylor will have a healthy Petty (he left with a "mild" concussion) and which team better stacks up based on the full body of the season.  Baylor will have a better final opponent in K-State, but if TCU blows out ISU and Baylor struggles then I could hear an argument for TCU peaking a bit more.  Gun to my head, I like TCU more because I think their defense is better and they have a bit more of a pedigree, but either team would be fine provided they win out.

MGoRusty

December 1st, 2014 at 9:27 PM ^

It's not about one game, but a body of work. TCU's only loss is to a top ranked team. TCU has a stronger all around resume. Baylor has a terrible loss. TCU easily for me. By saying Baylor deserves to be in, makes TCU's resume even better. If the Big 12 would get over themselves, and have a conference championship, this wouldn't be a topic.

BLHoke

December 1st, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^

I'd take TCU. I know the whole head to head thing, but that game was more about TCU letting it slip away than Baylor being the better team, and it was at Baylor. TCU had a much tougher non conference schedule (The Minnesota game looks like a dominant win over a game top 25 team, deserving of that moniker with losses coming to TCU, OSU, Wiscy, admittedly the other was an ugly L, but most top teams have one.). They each have 1 ugly nut cuttin win vs Kansas and Texas Tech, but TCU reeled the Jayhawks in much sooner in the 4th. And nearly every other common opponent TCU won more impressively. TCU, Explosive offense, above average defense. Baylor, Explosive offense, ZERO defense. Also, each received an opportunity on the big stage prior to this season... TCU upset a very good Wisconsin team in the Rose Bowl and Baylor lost to another scrappy upstart big last year. I know that show really have no bearing on this season... But I think it shows that Patterson is more likely to have his team prepared for all of the hoopla, and whatever kind of team they might be matched up with.

BLHoke

December 1st, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^

BCS, this new "playoff"... It still won't be fixed until they do away with preseason rankings and undeserved conference bias. Before this past week Georgia was ranked #9 ahead of #10 Michigan St. Now, I'm no Sparty apologist... But their 2 losses came against 2 explosive teams squarely in the playoff picture, and they were very much in those games until late 4th quarter. Georgia's previous 2 losses were to a South Carolina team that lost everything that mattered to graduation and the NFL draft, and a Florida team that is best known for their own players blocking each other. Florida failed to surpass 100 yards passing several times this season, all but screaming, "Hey, we're going to run the ball!" Like we did in Denard's last game vs OSU... And Florida still rolled up a record setting performance on the ground in a dominant thrashing. But Georgia is from the Mighty Mighty Essssss Eeeeee Seeeee, and was coming off of a dominating win over one of the many overrated SEC West teams. Auburn had a rabbits foot wearing a horse shoe up their ass last year, and SHOULD have lost 3 more games this season (KState missed several FGs and dropped a wide open TD.)... Then, the SEC goes 0-4 vs the same ACC conference that their supporters have been bitching about FSU being undefeated against. That South Carolina team that beat constantly over ranked and over valued Georgia, just got thoroughly dominated by the same Clemson team that FSU beat.... Without their best player and Hesiman Trophy winning, NC last drive orchestrating QB. It's just a farce... SEC teams lose and barely fall, with 2/3rds of the league being thrust into the top 15-20 each and every season... Then you see 3-4 loss SEC teams consistent ranked ahead of 2 loss or less teams from other conferences... Or if a top ranked team takes an L, they tumble outside of the playoff/BCS convo for good unless several teams ahead of them choke and lose. Missouri is going to their 2nd straight SEC championship... They've won both of the SEC West matchups they had this year, and 1 of their 2 losses is to Big Ten cellar dweller Indiana... BTW, A&M & Mizzou are still Big 12 teams that haven't even put in a full recruiting cycle in the SEC... In the first 3 seasons in the nations "top" conference, A&M went 12-2 upsetting perennial power Alabama, while Johnny Fuckin Football shredded the "superior" SEC defenses all the way to the Heisman... Then Missou finishes as one of the conferences top 2 teams in back to back seasons... Neither of these teams consistently gave Texas, OU, Nebraska, KState or OK State much resistance while in the Big 12.... Meanwhile Nebraska, a program that thoroughly dominated the conference along with OU and Texas over the past quarter century.... Moves to a very down Big Ten Conference.... Even to the "weaker" division.... And still can't win a conference championship or even throw its name into the hat with regularity. Anywho, I'm sorry for the random rant... Just had to get that off of my chest.

Maized and Confused

December 1st, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^

H2H>everything else in my opinion. Although TCU looks more impressive right now. So how does this system work again??

I think it's about time to add a play in game to the playoff system... We can call it the first round



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BLHoke

December 2nd, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^

I could easily see that happening. They have a great coach, great playmakers and a very good QB with running ability (not a full on dual threat or scrambler in my book with a ypc under 4.). Also, I fully believe that they should have beaten an Auburn team coming off of a NC appearance before they completely folded this season on D. They missed multiple FGs and dropped a wide open TD, either scenario going the other way and they get the upset and we're likely talking about the winner of Saturday's game getting the Big 12's playoff spot. BTW, TCU beat them by 3 TDs... I think Baylor is obligated to put on a similar performance if they want to leapfrog TCU, all sort of pun intended.