TCU or Baylor?
What's our impartial consensus -- if there is to be a BigXII team in the playoffs for the national championship trophy that looks like a female body part, should it be TCU or Baylor?
If you saw the news today, the BigXII has decided that it won't name it's conf champion (=Baylor) but will "submit both teams" to the Committee to pick which should go to the playoff. The BigXII claims it's not the BigXII's business to determine who the BigXII champion is, but the national committee should do that. Yikes. BUT, if one team (=TCU) goes to the playoff, then the other team (=Baylor) will then be declared by the conference to be the conference champion, guaranteeing it a spot in another big bowl. There's a term for this: trying to have your cake and eat it too.
Anyhoo, I am strongly believing that Baylor deserves to go b/c it beat TCU. Otherwise it's certainly not recognizing the conference champion (even if the conference won't say those words, yet), and it's really minimizing the impact of the most key evaluation -- head on head.
Sure TCU might have had the better season against common opponents and played a tougher nonconf schedule, BUT, they played a round robin in the conference, so to me, head to head should decide it.
Now, watch K-State klunk Baylor next week and moot the point.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^
Alabama
Oregon
Florida State
TCU (Baylor will lose to KSU)
Alabama beats TCU 37-17
Oregon beats Florida State 39-33
Alabama beats Oregon 27-21 (and we all cry having to hear "SEC SEC SEC" all winter again).
December 1st, 2014 at 6:22 PM ^
Can you imagine how upset you would be if we had the same record as OSU and beat them head to head, but the committee chose OSU? Hell, we don't even have to go that far back to a time when the Big 10 basically did that to Michigan and Michigan fans are still upset about it.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^
If you're refering to 1973, UM did not beat OSU that year.
December 1st, 2014 at 11:00 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 6:33 PM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 6:43 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 6:24 PM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 8:43 PM ^
The criteria for selection is described in a manner giving the committee great discretion:
They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents.
http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/about-the-rankings
Still, they do cite conference championships, and in practice, IMO for two teams from the same conference to be chosen would require an overwhelming perception that the 2nd team is head-and-shoulders above the alternatives.
My guess as to the repercussions of various upsets:
1. Ariz(11-2) over Ore(11-2)
1a. OSU(12-1) (Playskool good) replaces Ore
1b. Ariz replaces Ore (Playskool shaky)
2. GT(11-2) over FSU(12-1)
2a.OSU(12-1) replaces FSU(12-1) (Playskool good)
2b.Ariz(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1)
2c.GT(11-2) replaces FSU(12-1), or not
3. KSU(10-2)/ISU over Bay(10-2)/TCU(10-2)
3a.OSU(12-1) replaces Big12(10-2) (Playskool good)
3b.Ariz(11-2) replaces Big12(10-2) spot
3a.KSU(10-2) takes Big12(10-2) spot
4. Mizz(11-2) over Bama(11-2)
4a Everyone screams "Nooo!!!"
4b OSU(12-1) replaces Bama (Playskool good)
4c.Ariz(11-2) replaces Bama
4d.GT(11-2) replaces Bama
4e Mizzou replaces Bama if Mizz is dominant
4f Bama stays if close game
5. Wisc(11-2) over OSU(11-2)
• Wiscy needs to find an unfilled slot above
December 1st, 2014 at 8:51 PM ^
The only teams in my mind that have a shot are
Bama
Oregon
FSU
TCU
Baylor
OSU
Arizona
Very slim but unlikely GT or Wisconsin
I'm thinking that if any of the top 5 or 6 teams lose, they are out. Zero chance of a loss and still making it, even for the blind Bama/SEC boosters unless all the top lose. If Bama, FSU, Oregon, TCU, Baylor and OSU lose, I think Arizona would replace Oregon, Baylor may stay up, doubt GT or Wisconsin could sneak in and think they would keep Bama and FSU
December 1st, 2014 at 6:33 PM ^
Definitely TCU. If not, then don't count OOC games at all, since Baylor's OOC schedule is a joke. Their best OOC opponent was a MAC team that lost to EMU and just fired its coach.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^
Hope FSU loses to GT and then take both. But if they're both 11-1 and there's only one spot, take Baylor. They won the game against TCU.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:47 PM ^
Baylor. They beat TCU, its common sense.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:55 PM ^
I've heard the defense of "but TCU blew a large lead late in that game" as somehow being a defense of TCU. Yes, that's called losing. They lost that game.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:56 PM ^
I've heard the defense of "but TCU blew a large lead late in that game" as somehow being a defense of TCU. Yes, that's called losing. They lost that game.
December 1st, 2014 at 8:41 PM ^
is also called losing.
December 1st, 2014 at 6:58 PM ^
That drove me nuts. Glad the season sorted that out. Sparty is still overrated in the top 10-12.
December 1st, 2014 at 7:07 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 7:11 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 7:13 PM ^
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December 1st, 2014 at 7:15 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 7:43 PM ^
To me, Baylor deserves to get screwed because they chose to fill their schedule with crap. If there are consequences, then hopefully we will see much better OOC schedules.
December 1st, 2014 at 7:49 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 7:50 PM ^
And the answer is....
December 1st, 2014 at 8:26 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 8:33 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 8:26 PM ^
The issue is who is better now, not 2 months ago. I get why it applies when teams are playing multiple times against each other or a game is a blowout, but a 3-point win/loss early on in the year doesn't tell me much about either club as it pertains to games in January.
They are both very explosive teams with some holes in their game, so I guess it comes down to whether or not you think Baylor will have a healthy Petty (he left with a "mild" concussion) and which team better stacks up based on the full body of the season. Baylor will have a better final opponent in K-State, but if TCU blows out ISU and Baylor struggles then I could hear an argument for TCU peaking a bit more. Gun to my head, I like TCU more because I think their defense is better and they have a bit more of a pedigree, but either team would be fine provided they win out.
December 1st, 2014 at 9:25 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 9:27 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 10:01 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 10:27 PM ^
December 1st, 2014 at 11:51 PM ^
I think it's about time to add a play in game to the playoff system... We can call it the first round
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December 2nd, 2014 at 7:41 AM ^
count on it (they actually have a semi-defense which Baylor does not).
December 2nd, 2014 at 8:18 AM ^