St. Mary's still in?
In Brian's most recent post, he voiced his opinion that St. Mary's could be in even with a loss tonight. He also mentioned that Mills's return from injury was a major factor. With the Zags rolling all over St. Mary's and Mills going 2 for 16 shooting, does St. Mary's still look to be in the field or no?
March 10th, 2009 at 12:09 AM ^
I think they're still ahead of us. Joe Lunardi had them as a 10 seed (ahead of Mich) before the game and losing to a good team like Gonzaga shouldn't really drop them. But hopefully we're ahead of them.
St Mary's RPI: 46
Vs. RPI Top 50: 2-3
VS RPI Top 100: 3-4
Looks pretty similar to our resume, I'd put us slightly ahead based on more quality wins.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:54 AM ^
their SOS is pretty weak. I think that their SOS is 168 or something like that.
Team's RPI doesn't really matter at all. The only thing that it matter is the RPI top 25, 50 and 100, SOS, bad losses, road record and last 10-12 games.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:59 AM ^
That's it?
March 10th, 2009 at 11:14 AM ^
That's what they claim. They claim to not look at conference record, how many teams from that conference are in, or overall RPI.
March 10th, 2009 at 12:14 AM ^
Were completely out of the game early and in a nationally televised game. Gonzaga or not, St. Mary's was not impressive and lost by 20+ (I didn't watch the very end). They should be sweating.
Lunardi updated after last night's games and the Gaels were in the last 4 out according to the SportsCenter broadcast.
So, it looks like it could be a tossup on Selection Sunday.
I think St. Mary's is still in, albeit as like a 13 seed instead of a 10 seed, unless something interesting happens in conference tournaments to teams that are already thought to have fallen off the bubble. So many bubble teams have honked it up in the past couple weeks that there's still room.
It all depends on how the committee viewed Patrick Mill's injury made an impact on St. Mary's. Based on the resume, I'd say no. It's would've been moot point if they had beaten Gonzaga in the WCC final and Gonzaga would get the at-large bid. But it didn't happen. St. Mary's are squarely on the bubble. It'd take a lot going on for them to fall in their way in order for them to get the NCAA bid.
Note that last night is not the last impression -- they added a game to their schedule this week. It's not against a good team (Eastern Washington, RPI around 230 so it could drop St Mary's RPI), but it gives them an opportunity to finish with a win and for Mills to get another game in. Could help them more than the RPI damage would hurt them.
I saw that as well. What I'm wondering is, will this/should this late addition to the schedule have any effect whatsoever on how they are viewed? If St. Mary's blows Eastern Washington out, they beat a team in the bottom 2/3 of the roughly 300-team RPI base, which isn't saying anything. If they beat them badly, ok, they hammered a helpless team, and maaayyybe the committee says that Mills could make the difference in the tournament and thus uses that as justification for putting them ahead of us, but I just don't see that as a rational decision.
Of course, whoever said that the decision-making of the committee was necessarily rational...
March 10th, 2009 at 10:08 AM ^
Granted I'm not the most avid college hoops regular season follower, but is there a precedent for teams scheduling games AFTER their conference tournament?
I thought the point of the conference tournament was that it was the conclusion of the regular season and the final chance for teams to try to get a bid to the tourney. I think it's pretty bush league for St. Mary's to schedule some wack crappy ass opponent who Patty Mills can obviously light up to try to enhance their resume when they just got obliterated by an actual good team in Gonzaga.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:14 AM ^
My first reaction when I heard that was that it was unfair to schedule another opponent. The conference tournament is the start of the postseason, not just another tournament.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:56 AM ^
..it's a really weak opponent and if anything will hurt their RPI. It is just a chance to have a quasi-exhibition to re-integrate him to the team. As far as the football analogy goes, I really doubt that beating Slippery Rock 150-0 (or a WAC team, or whatever) would help out a team for being #1.
Technically, RPI is used for "seeding purposes", so that's irrelevant as to whether or not they get in. (As to whether this is true in practice, I'm not sure, but that's what they said on ESPN last night.)
I could see a scenario where some of the sting of the whipping they were dealt by Gonzaga wears off if they go blow out another team after the fact. If they were to win by 30 points, I could see someone in the room arguing, "Hey, their best player was hurt, they just showed that they can win when at full strength (assuming Mills did well), let's give them a shot."
March 10th, 2009 at 12:48 PM ^
I don't think the selection committee will care too much about this last game for St. Mary's - in fact, it might hurt them a bit because it looks a little desperate. The Gaels have a decent resume (maybe not as good as some bubble teams, but certainly not the worst), and will be in the discussion toward the end. They lost to Gonzaga, but losing to a top-15 team in your conference final is not some massive pock on their record. If you are on the bubble in the Big 10, Big East, or SEC, I know I better win at least 1 tournament game (preferably 2) or I'll be sweating about St. Mary taking my spot on Sunday.
March 10th, 2009 at 10:45 AM ^
I hope this trend doesn't catch on in other sports. Can't you see a team like Texas or Alabama scheduling Slippery Rock the week after their conference championship game, leaving the starters in the whole game and winning 150-0, and then claiming that it justifies them being in the National Championship game??
March 10th, 2009 at 10:53 AM ^
that it won't happen in football because the teams are already at the max requirement of the game played in regular season.
St. Mary's is one game short of the maximum requirement. If that's bush league, NCAA would not allow for it to happen but since they okayed that move, it's not that big of a deal.