Softball: Back to Earth
After last week's sweep at Indiana had the Wolverine atop the Big Ten and on a ten-game winning streak, it was fair to speculate that the young Wolverine offense was starting to click and the transition from legend Carol Hutchins to protegee Bonnie Tholl might be going more smoothly than previously thought.
This week: a bit of a course correction. The mid-week solo game at Notre Dame was frozen out and the three-game series at last season's conference tournament champ and regular-season winner Northwestern didn't go well. The Wildcats swept, 9-1 (five innings), 8-5 and 5-4. Sunday's game was moved into a second game today with Sunday's weather in Evanston looking iffy.
This drops the Wolverine record to 24-14, 6-3 in the Big Ten.
The opener yesterday was a mercy game. Northwestern took a 2-0 lead in the second. Michigan picked up an unearned run in the third, with Indiana Langford proving the lone Wolverine hit in the game on a nine-pitch battle against Northwestern starter and league MVP candidate Ashley Miller. The Wildcats put the game out of reach with a pair of home runs in the bottom of the third, chasing Lauren Derkowski. They walked it off with a three-run fifth.
In the second game, Kansas beat Indiana, kind-of. Northwestern second baseman (and other league MVP candidate) Kansas Robinson led off the bottom of the first with a home run, a five-run inning punctuated by a grand slam. She was 3-for-4, including a run-scoring double. Michigan second baseman Langford went 1-for-4 with a run scoring single.
Wolverine freshman Erin Hoehn calmed down after the first inning, and the Wolverines closed the gap to 6-5 with a five-run fifth, in which they had three of their six hits. That chased Northwestern starter Riley Grudzielanek (her uncle was in the professional baseball business - most notably with les decedee Montreal Expos des '90s). But they didn't get anything else going.
Miller and Derkowski faced off again in a back-and-forth nightcap. Michigan scored a pair of runs in the first, with left fielder Ellie Sieler providing the punch with a leadoff triple. Northwestern got one back in the second inning and three more in the third.
The Wolverines tied the game in the fifth when freshman designated player Ava Costales hit her second home run of the season. In the seventh, Northwestern notched another (more literal) walk-off win, two singles followed by two walks ending the game.
This week was a bit sobering. Northwestern hasn't been quite as good as last year, though the Wildcats and newcomer Penn State are getting votes in the latest top-25 (no Big Ten team has been ranked for the last month or so).
But let's not forget the dominating sweep of Indiana a week ago, last year's runner-up to Northwestern, both in the conference tournament and the conference standings. The Wolverines scored ten runs in three games against the league's best pitching. Unfortunately, Michigan's pitching didn't hold up this weekend. With the offense improved, the decline in pitching, evident last season after Meghan Beaubien graduated and Alex Storako transferred for her COVID grad year (and won a national championship), has become more notable.
This week is busy, with Central Michigan visiting Ann Arbor on Tuesday, a one-game series at Michigan State on Wednesday, and then a weekend series hosting Iowa. The Hawkeyes were 108th in RPI entering this weekend, MSU 112th (12th and 13th in the Big Ten) and CMU 232nd. Michigan was 51st. Time to build up some wins. At 24-14, they need three more to exceed last season's win total (they were 26-25, 10-13 in the Big Ten).
Thanks for the recap, I'd seen the scores. It looks like the squad is improved over last year's, but not quite yet at the level of Big Ten contenders. The stat at the end is eye opening. 51st seems like the wrong side of the bubble unfortunately, but there remains time to get in there, right?
The NCAA selection committee relies heavily on RPI and you need low 40s for an at-large bid.
It's not a stretch to say that the Big Ten might not get any at large berths. Penn State (28th) and Northwestern (40th) were the only two league teams in position entering the weekend, and RPIs tend to drop during the conference schedule because there are a lot of weak teams.
Michigan played a weaker non-conference schedule than usual, which is why they're lower than last season despite more wins. I think they need to win the league tournament to get in, and I don't think they have the pitching to do it. Derkowski is a solid #2, but you need an ace to carry you through in that all-or-nothing format.
The next week or so (there's a second mid-week game against MSU a week from Wednesday) is important in getting a good seed for the tournament. The back end of the schedule is tougher, with series against Nebraska, Penn State and Ohio State. Remarkable how short the schedule is.
Nebraska probably would be running away with the league if not for losing Jordy Bahl in the season opener. As it stands, they're off to a solid start in the league. They mercied Penn State today to move into second place behind Northwestern.
I was just looking at another interesting stat about Michigan pitching. They're downright mean. Maybe too mean.
Going into the weekend, they were fifth among the 296 Division I teams with 38 hit batters. The leader, Pitt, had 42. They plunked another seven batters this weekend. So, 32% of their free passes come with a bruise. That's a lot of unnecessary baserunners.
Interestingly, WHIP (which isn't as violent as it sounds) does not include hit batters. I think this has been a Michigan problem for a long time - I remember Beaubien brushed back far too many in her day.
How much is being "mean," and how much is not having the sustained control of a top pitcher?
Yeah, teams don't headhunt in softball. It's a control issue.
I remember that Beaubien, who had great control, hit a lot of batters (86 career HBP, 181 walks, 32% of free bases). This is the same ratio as the team's current ratio, and probably just about leads the nation.
I don't think it's a control issue. I think they throw inside more than other teams. Most umpires won't even call it if a batter is hit by a pitch and the pitch would otherwise be a called a strike. It's like Barry Bonds with the giant elbow armor with some players.
Honestly, I don't think they head-hunt. Getting hit hurts, but it's a bigger ball, so the impact is spread out more than a baseball, plus it's going about 30 mph slower, plus as far as I know, teams don't get angry about stupid stuff. Home run hitters dance around the bases and do organized plate celebrations, and it's just part of the game.
I think it's a conscious coaching decision to tell pitchers it's OK to hit a lot more batters in order to mitigate the advantage of a batter trying to take away the inside pitch. It should probably go hand-in-hand with getting on umpires every time an opposing batter leans over the plate.
Looks like each game was closer than the previous one.
I'm convinced we would have won a fourth game.
A 5-0 week would be really nice this coming week.
I greatly appreciate the updates as usual Mr. Sole!
Cant keep stranding runners and expect to win..The SB has taken a nosedive since Hutch left
Good recap. Definitely a wake up call but to their credit they did wind up playing better as the series progressed. It's a team still lacking top end talent but the offense is young and improving at least.
There are a lot of freshman and sophomores starting right now, so this is still very promising stuff. Hoehn, Conway, and Costales all have top end talent potential. Maddie Erickson may already be there.