Risk Day 33 - The Buckeyes Got A Bad Roll....But A Big Jump In Participation. We Need Another MGoSurge.
Last night was a pretty good night for the Good Guys. A somewhat confusing night, but a good night. We maintained our strength in the west and the northeast, and we kept our presence in Texas. We ended up +1.2 vs. expectations.
The real story of last night, though, was the Buckeyes' roll. They went from being in position to take over California, Nevada, Utah, and parts of adjacent states to....having just UCLA. They also weren't able to push us back in the northeast or stop our foray into Ohio (the state). In the end, they ended up -3.2 vs. expectations. Yay RNG!
On the other hand, Ohio State took back the lead for participation. They surged by more than 100 players to 1,221, while we actually lost a few players last night. Indeed, we seem to have plateaued at just under 1,200 players. Not great Bob.
If we're going to have a chance at winning this thing, we NEED another couple surges from our MGoArmy (i.e. you guys). As noted a couple days ago, Ohio State is going hardcore and they're going to keep recruiting to try to beat us. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has no natural enemies in the game and could easily win just by continuing to do their thing -- and no, the answer to Georgia Tech isn't to attack GT....that'd be a HORRIBLE idea. Thus, if we want to be the victors (and not just prevent Ohio State from winning), we need a big push over the next 18 days.
I know that feels like a big ask. And truth be told, it probably is. But how about let's do it anyway? Let's beat down the Buckeyes, assert some dominance, and win it for the Good Guys! Go Blue!
Steps To Play Every Day With Hyperlinks: Attached to this post is a PDF with easy to digest instructions and hyperlinks. Below is the same information written out.
- Sign up for a https://reddit.com/ account if you don’t have one already
- Visit https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team
- Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ - click “Login using Reddit” – Click “Get an Assignment”
- Return to https://collegefootballrisk.com/ – Scroll to the bottom of the page and execute your assignment (Note: Simply clicking action so that it becomes highlighted gray confirms the move. There’s no submit or confirm button needed)
April 24th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
Question about assignments:
1. How are these determined?
2. Should we always complete the assignment given to us? Is there ever a better move and how would we be aware of the better move to make?
April 24th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
I have a guess, but I don't know for sure.
1. One or more people who are very good at statistics come up with a plan every day for how to distribute the projected resources for that day.
2. If you take an assignment, then you should complete it. My assumption is that when you click on the button, it logs your response, checks your power, and updates a database or list with how stars have been allocated thus far.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
Pretty much spot on for both.
The mods typically figure out a general plan of what percentage of our power we want to devote to each region of the map.
We’ve been working with some of our users that have been able to develop an algorithm generates the ideal amount of power in each territory depending on a few variables to theoretically maximize our expected results.
point 2 is spot on. Taking an order and not executing just creates a discrepancy with the above noted ideal power for the territory and the actual power we have there.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
Thank you both for the clarification!
April 24th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
We’ve been working with some of our users that have been able to develop an algorithm generates the ideal amount of power in each territory depending on a few variables to theoretically maximize our expected results.
The Michigan Difference. Love it!
April 24th, 2020 at 11:50 AM ^
done. takes about 10 seconds. go blue. most of us have a few extra minutes these days, anyway.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:52 AM ^
Pleased to see that THE GARDEN HAS BEEN FENCED.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:58 AM ^
sadly, i don't think so. looks like massachusetts in the east and what i'll call 'contra costa' county in northern cal in the west are our only 2 'fenced' territories.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:14 PM ^
XM, you're hurting me, man. ;)
That's not Massachusetts. It's Connecticut (plus Rhode Island, which is why it looks weird).
And it's not Contra Costa County, either. The one you're looking at is actually bordered by OSU to the south (it's the Stanford territory and makes up the central and northern California coasts; there's no gap at the Bay Area, even though it looks like it is). But Contra Costa County is East Bay and part of the California territory. Marin County would have been a better choice, or Mendocino County or something. :)
April 24th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
hey now, this is what massachusetts looks like, a recruiting hot bed! i stand by my geography...
April 24th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
Indeed it is. :-) But the Boston College territory and UMass territories are both bordered by OSU's Syracuse territory. The protected territory is the UConn territory, which is Connecticut and Rhode Island. :)
April 24th, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
I think thats CT/RI in the northeast but yeah, we have very few safe territories. Getting Nevada would be a good start to fencing in Cali.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:21 PM ^
Does Chaos coordinate their plans?
April 24th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
It's really just a bunch of chickens in a room stepping on keyboards.
There has been a level of coordination amongst eliminated teams occasionally. Notably last time, Tennessee coordinated their users to bother Florida as chaos. We're seeing that with Oklahoma right now seemingly trying to eliminate Clemson, before presumably going for Texas.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
I just do what i'm told..... and i let my significant other cut my hair last night..... three more weeks of 'stay at home' so it'll mostly grow back before I can pop out and look for my shadow.
You know the difference between a good haircut and a bad one?
about three days
April 24th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
The way to deal with GT is to make a deal with the devil until say 5-10 turns left then slug it out with them.
otherwise GT will just be content to overpower the small teams in their area and beat both of us.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
Two more days until 4*. UNLEASH. THE FURY!!!!
April 24th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Hey, I'm up to 2 stars now, so basically just hand us the trophy.
No need to thank me. ;)
April 24th, 2020 at 12:50 PM ^
Also, hopefully we get a decent roll, but would be really nice to kick OSU out of the West now. Chaos too while we're at it. Nebraska gained some steam. Clemson, Texas, and Stanford holding on for dear life. However, we only have 1 protected territory from what I can see (Connecticut).
If it were me, I'd allocate very little to the Texas/Oklahoma region and really focus on our strongholds in the West and Northeast.
After reading these posts every day I finally broke down and figured I might as well jump in. Now that I'm paying more attention I have some questions.
1. How do you tell what moves were made the night before?
2. I thought we had a non-aggression pact with Nebraska but they just took parts of Nevada and Washington from us. Both of those territories would shelter some of our areas. Did they stab us in the back?
For what it's worth my priorities would be taking back the territories from NE, wiping out OSU and chaos in UCLA and USC, and Syracuse in the NE. The next priorities would be TaM in AZ and NM and OSU territories in the NE (PSU, Buffalo and Temple).
The moves from last night can be viewed by looking at team history, or on individual territories, depending on what you're looking for. There's also an API with stats and numbers that I personally don't understand but if you do, more power to you.
Things with Nebraska are a bit foggy right now, but we hope to have more clarity tonight.
I have to say I really appreciate your daily updates. I am curious about your view of the advances Nebraska has made recently, especially in the west.