Reading the tea leaves: it'll be Gattis
The evidence:
1. Harbaugh supposedly was transparent and told recruits that he would entertain offers from the NFL, yet we pulled in a really good recruiting class - on early signing day, no less - despite that uncertainty. Why would you sign early if you knew the HC was planning to explore going to the NFL? Why not wait and see, knowing you can always sign today? Perhaps those recruits were reassured, confidentially, that Gattis would get the job if Harbaugh left. Gattis is apparently a very good recruiter and quite charismatic, so recruits might have been ok with that as the back up plan.
2. Gattis is the Broyles award winner and the OC on a team that won the B1G and made the CFP, putting up 42 points on OSU and Iowa along the way (both had good Ds, despite OSU having a down year for them). Despite the fact that we were in the CFP, you'd think there would have been some rumors that he's a candidate at a variety of places, but there really weren't (other than a few posts here). And being in the CFP didn't stop Dan Lanning from talking to and eventually accepting the Oregon job. Perhaps that's because Gattis had already been given the reassurances that he's next, and he wouldn't talk to anyone as a result?
3. MacDonald left. Sure, being the DC of a team in the NFL was probably more appealing to MM than being DC for us, but he was under contract for another year, iirc. I can't imagine that John would steal back MacDonald that fast if Jim hadn't told him he was looking around, and the assistants clearly knew anyway (see #1 above). If Macdonald had been told Gattis is getting the job and he wouldn't, all the more reason to go, and all the more reason for U-M to do the right thing and let him talk to the Ravens.
4. Harbaugh's legacy. It's rather late for a college team to be starting a search for a new HC, so leaving U-M without a coach at this point would hurt the program. Would JH do that to U-M? If his successor is already in place, not so much of a problem.
Not a lot of evidence and all of it circumstantial, but there it is.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:37 PM ^
Or nuclear pile--that was the first fate of Chicago's; now it's the site of the main campus library.
It held 50,000; it wasn't small. I'm not sure people now realize what a shocking move Hutchins pulled off. It had after all been "Stagg's University," pioneer of using a football program to brand a school, sort of the way Canham was the pioneer of marketing/monetizing one. Pulling the plug on it was like Notre Dame suddenly announcing "we're a Catholic university, damn it, and this football stuff is distracting us from our mission. Tear it down."
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:34 PM ^
Agree that it would probably be Gattis. There's a lot to be said for continuity within a program that is doing well. The team will also have an absolutely loaded offense next year -- great opportunity for an offensive coach who already knows the players well to come out of the gates firing
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:21 PM ^
I'll just throw this out there.
There is more continuity if Gattis is still the OC. It's asking a lot of anyone to get their start as a head coach at Michigan. It's a huge job with a lot of responsibilities that have nothing to do with being the OC. He's going to be learning on the job.
If the new OC is promoted from within too, say Sherrone Moore, it's going to be someone with no experience as an OC. Will he have the freedom to run his own offense or will Gattis still be doing part of that job too?
I don't know who would make the better head coach, but the transition would be easier with Mike Hart.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
maybe pair gattis with a phil martelli type like juwan did. not sure i have a good name for that tho.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:50 PM ^
When we hired Juwan, he hadn't been in college in 25 years. If Gattis or any other assistant is promoted, he shouldn't need his own "Martelli" to help him adapt.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
Fuck, this is Sherlock Holmes level detective work!!! ?️♂️
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
Don't think so unless any/all of Warde's potential external hires turn him down, which I think is unlikely. He's going to go after (probably has already started) someone with HC experience. It's obviously late the college hiring cycle for next season but we're not Podunk St. after all.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
But is that really what’s best to keep the roster and team chemistry together? We hired Lloyd Carr and Moeller internally as well and both turned out pretty good products on the field although one had a bit of a problem with the bottle.
The more I let my emotions settle down the more Gattis makes sense, especially with all the talent returning on offense and having a possible generational QB who would run a full on RPO offense extremely well, as well as a loaded receiver room and 2 amazing running backs.
Also, the schedule next year is as easy as it’s been probably since 2011 or maybe easier, and we could easily be 11-0 going into the OSU game as long as we can keep the current players on the roster bought in. Gattis could get them to buy in I think.
My only real fear with Gattis isn’t that he won’t win at least at the clip Harbaugh did. I think, as long as he recruits well, should have not much problem doing that. My concern is that he exceeds expectations like Lincoln Riley did and gets an offer from Bama in 4-5 years when Saban retires, an NFL offer of his own, or another big southern school with lots more recourses in recruiting. (What if Kirby Smart decides he wants a crack at the NFL?) That’s certainly a problem I can live with. Likely at least wins 70% of games due to talent and scheme remaining the same, with the possibility of exceeding expectations quickly.
But it seems to me, for immediate success with the current roster, Josh Gattis makes a lot of sense.
Hiring externally I think just begins yet another 5 year rebuild because so many guys will likely transfer, several recruits will back out, and possibly enough new idiosyncrasies in the philosophy that it takes more time for current guys to adapt. At that point we will all be so frustrated at being mediocre/decent as we were with Harbaugh that we will run that guy out of town.
The time is still NOW for Michigan to be successful, and Matt Rhule, Bill O Brien, or Matt Campbell probably aren’t going to come in and have immediate success the way someone who already knows the systems, players and operations would. I know Gattis isn’t a big splash guy, but internal promotions have worked enough times in the past when a great coach leaves, that in this situation where we might looking for a coach in February, certainly makes the most sense.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:55 PM ^
I hear you and don't necessarily disagree. But...I think we (collective for us fans) are much more focused on keeping the roster/recruiting class(es) and coaching staff intact than Warde is. In other words, we're looking at the immediate/short term (me too) and my guess is that Warde is looking at the bigger picture/intermediate term. He wants what's best for Michigan over the next 5 or so years (or ideally longer) whereas we're all staring at NOW. Just my opinion and of course if Gattis gets the job and succeeds, and stays a while, it's a win-win-win (no pun intended).
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:13 PM ^
I think it is beyond funny that you are worried about losing Gattis to some SEC blueblood program because of his stellar achievements as the Michigan Head Coach. Maybe see if he can blow the whistle at practice first.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:47 PM ^
I mean, if he does really well and the right job comes open in 3-5 years it’s certainly a possibility. Gattis has no deep roots at UM and I’m sure would love to be able to recruit the best of the best and get paid 10+ mil a year. Brian Kelly had no problem leaving.And of course this is all hypothetical, and I was saying that is my only real concern and that it’s a good one to have as it means we did well. Downvoted for needless snark and double post.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
I think it is beyond funny that you are worried about losing Gattis to some SEC blueblood program because of his stellar achievements as the Michigan Head Coach. Maybe see if he can blow the whistle at practice first.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
Or it could be Hart. Or none of these could mean anything about either one of them.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:39 PM ^
I thought the coaching search pre-Harbaugh was a bad time here. We haven't even begun and I want to just bang my head against the wall over and over again.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:47 PM ^
Well, from a moderation standpoint, this is a major lose-lose:
1) Harbaugh isn't gone for the time being, but the speculation and hand-wringing over legacy / state of problem / everything else in anticipation of a potential announcement (if he actually accepts a position elsewhere) is suffocating right now.
2) If he in fact leaves and they quickly (if temporarily perhaps) move to make Gattis the HC, then the endless speculation about how the remainder of 2022 / the staff / the class will pan out will suffocate the board.
3) If there is a protracted gap and the position of head coach remains vacant for any stretch of time....oh holy shit, this place will end up ablaze somehow.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
1. Drive to Kentucky
2. Purchase gallons of bourbons not found in Michigan
3. Consume heavily during moderation stints.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:11 PM ^
So many people always ask me to pick up bourbon for them. My boss, my brother in law, random aunt. Just because I live in Kentucky doesn’t mean I know where all the bourbon is.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:51 PM ^
You just won't tell us.
February 2nd, 2022 at 10:18 PM ^
Most of the bourbons n ryes from Willets is pretty fine stuff and you can’t get it Michigan. Priced not bad but they keep on rising as people find out how good they are. We make a trip or two to their distillery every year.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
I think it’s all theories and speculation. Two weeks ago everyone was confident he was staying at UM and Minnesota wasn’t even in the picture. Fast forward, and he is now going to be the coach for Minnesota. Maybe those were contingency plans, but I do not think anything was in the works like this.
My question, why is everyone so down on Gattis taking over? First, most fans bitched about the offense having Harbaugh’s fingerprints all over it at the beginning of his arrival. Now, coming off winning the Broyles award, and having a great offense, he’s now a bad choice and Hart is the preferred choice? Hart has a bright future but that is feeding him to the wolves imo. Personally, I am cool with UM rolling out with Gattis and seeing what he does as an interim or whatever you want to call his title. Maybe we see a better offense? In any case, I don’t think BoB or Rhule are better options.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
Let's pray that it is not Gattis.
We saw his offense 2 years ago. Not great Well below average, actually.
This past year was primarily Harbaugh's offense. Unless you think that Gattis put "pin and pull" into "speed in space." You have to be blind not to see Harbaugh's fingerprints all over this offense. There are so many Harbaugh prints on this offense that I don't think Gattis should have even been a Broyles finalist.
Gattis only has a couple of years of "just OK" OC experience. What makes all the people on this board think he is qualified to be a Michigan HC is beyond me.
The Michigan HC job is just too damn important to do an experiment like this.
Gattis is fully qualified to be a HC at......Western Michigan.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:49 PM ^
I agree with your post except it is certainly possible that Gattis figured out how to add the Harbaughfense aspects to his speed and space more or less on his own.
By all accounts he's supposed to be a bright guy. He could have realized his offense wasn't working as-is.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:55 PM ^
And if the possibility that you suggested is true - he just might be qualified to be HC at Western Michigan after all.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:43 PM ^
You’re positing that 25 recruits all kept this secret. Conspiracy fan?
February 2nd, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^
Ha, this was my first thought. I’m sure every recruit can keep the secret just like every person in the deep state.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
Gattis would probably be Harbaugh's pick (programs decide on one assistant each to nominate for the Broyles award) but this would not be a Jim decision.
Also Gattis did interview for Virginia.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:46 PM ^
LSD 84 is mind blowing.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:57 PM ^
Very well-played. I was thinking early eighties admissions must have been generous, but looking at the circumstantial evidence - a misspelling of the username seems quite possible.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:15 PM ^
They accepted me in 1983, so yeah, it was a little lax back then.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:51 PM ^
I hope it is. Might be the only way we keep the current roster together
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
Decent post, not sure why the downvotes except for “shoot the messenger”.
My take?
Harbaugh is as good as gone.
Who would I like to replace him?
Luke Fickell, 100%
Sue me.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:57 PM ^
Lol those aren't tea leaves.
That's just finding events to fit your narrative. Which is fine, just not even close to the same thing.
February 2nd, 2022 at 4:59 PM ^
I doubt it. Not based on what I've heard, which is that Hart is better liked by the remainder of the staff and generally thought to have the better human and team management skills (read: emotional IQ). Gattis is mostly straight Xs and Os. Might not be either, but I'd be moderately surprised if it was Gattis.
Also, JH wasn't a done deal as of this morning FWIW. Will probably go that way soon but probably isn't definitely.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
I've heard its someone that can learn a southern draw overnight.
Seriously though, we could do worse than Hart I'd give him a shot.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:32 PM ^
Given that the college coaching carousel is done for 2022, I'd be fine with someone (like Hart) getting an interim tag (or maybe a silent one to avoid tanking recruiting for the cycle) and going into next offseason ready to pounce on whoever comes available, or just make the interim permanent if it's working out.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:09 PM ^
I am also good with Hart. He is a Michigan man and has some fire in his belly. The Lloyd coaching tree is pretty sparse, but he is part of it. He is young enough to connect with recruits and do whatever it takes to win.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:09 PM ^
I think you mean smoking the leaves.....and those aren't tea leaves.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
I would agree. I think it’s lined up for him.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
The biggest concern should be limiting damage to recruiting and transfers. Michigan has a cake schedule and perhaps a more talented team this up coming season. A real shot to repeat.
I think promoting Gattis would help with that short term. As for defense I would try and find a guy who has a similar mindset and style so the team isn’t learning a new D for a 2nd straight year.
If they do decide to go with a outside hire I would like either David Shaw or a younger hungry coach that enjoys the grind, knows how to recruit, and wants to embrace NIL.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:18 PM ^
I was thinking about Shaw. Also, Fleck, but folks neg me for saying that.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
I love your brainstorming. Brainstormers have always been outcasts. Keep brainstorming , Brainstorm 93.
February 2nd, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^
I wondered about Fleck too. Don't know if he'd actually be available but if he was I might prefer him to Matt Campbell.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:22 PM ^
The biggest concern should be limiting damage to recruiting and transfers
The biggest concern needs to be getting the best coach possible. If there are short-term costs, you live with them.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:58 PM ^
I agree with this 100%. Need to look beyond the Now to the next 5+ years if at all possible.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
Maybe we go coach-by-committee next year?
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:17 PM ^
Maybe we go coach-by-committee next year?
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:25 PM ^
I agree with this. Gattis has earned his wings. Need to find a DC but otherwise keep this group intact and keep the momentum going.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
Agreed. No idea how it could not be Gattis. Broyles winner, it's his offense, fluidity, not to mention the minority hire. Young guy, would have incredible energy for the gig, likely would be great on the recruiting trail. Hopefully doesn't turn into another RichRod, aka a glorified offensive coordinator parading as a head coach.
February 2nd, 2022 at 5:29 PM ^
why would he be great on the recruiting trail? Is he that way now? why would it be diff?