Preseason SP+: UM #4 and OSU #1
The full rankings are behind a paywall, but here are some relevant numbers:
1. OSU is ranked #1 (30.8)
2. UM is ranked #4 (21.5)
3. MSU is ranked #17 (15.3)
The gap between Michigan and Ohio State (9.3) is the same as the gap between Michigan and the #33/34 teams. You can probably guess the other two teams in the top-4.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:53 AM ^
#4? We've got a lot to get accomplished to live up to that.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Technically we just accomplished enough to become ranked number three, so it is a little step down from our current status
February 9th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
I take all of these early season polls with a grain of salt. We know both UM and OSU will be very good but all of these polls right now are nothing more than click bait. I'm going to wait till after the first few games in 2022 as we replace some super talent on defense and will have two new coordinators - that's HUGE !! And OSU #1 ? As with us, I want to see their new defensive look and results first. Like I said - nothing more than clickbait
February 9th, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
Their scheme from last year was a 4-2-5 if I am remembering that correctly, which is what Knowles likes to run. Scheme won't matter much if they cant develop their LB's. I can't remember their last big time LB since the days of Shazier, Hawk and Carpenter.
February 9th, 2022 at 2:07 PM ^
I thought Darron Lee ('14-15) and Raekwon McMillan ('14-16) were pretty good. But I'm probably biased.
February 9th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
They were good, but I couldn't remember the last Big name. Until just now that is.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
14-15 were dark days, but I don’t remember Lee at all…
February 9th, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
this isn't a poll, this is a mathematical evaluation of teams based on a wide range of metrics. Its far from perfect but its certainly not clickbait.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:58 PM ^
Right. Reminder for everyone that his projections are a combination of returning production that I talked about yesterday, performance in recent years, and recruiting talent. It's definitely not clickbait, and it's not a poll, but it's also not gospel because it doesn't account for things like coaching changes, injuries, etc.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
not sure why you are being negged.... it's a true statement since we have significant coaching turnover and some key defensive players to replace
but our QB, receiver, running back and O line situations are reasons for hope.... OK our entire offense is a reason to hope in 2022
Maybe the BIG gets 2 into the playoff this year if our defense holds up?
I think we are more like at top 10 team that should be in the top 5 when we play OSU
February 9th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
Have you looked at our schedule?
February 9th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
Beat OSU -
let’s make Ryan Day the modern John Cooper
February 9th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
day is cooper 2.0 i think he's a decent coach with a great roster.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^
I hope that is true. Cooper recruited Ohio very well but his offenses were very one-dimensional, maybe because of his poor QBs. They were:
- Greg Frey: Not drafted and never played in NFL
- Bobby Hoying: Drafted in 3rd round and had one good season in NFL
- Stanley Jackson: Cup of coffee with Seattle as UDFA
- Joe Germaine: Drafted in 4th round and was basically a backup for a couple of years
- Steve Bellisari: Drafted in the 6th round as a safety
Day's most recent QBs are all likely high draft picks and now OSU recruits nationally, of course mostly due to his predecessors. Although he may not be any better than Cooper, he's starting from a dramatically better spot with brand and talent. Where have I heard that before?
February 9th, 2022 at 3:15 PM ^
Something, something, third base.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^
Shouldn't Kirk Herbstreit be on that list of poor quarterbacks under Cooper?
February 9th, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
I saw people on Twitter already calling him Ryan Cooper after UM beat them, cant say i don't want this to be true
February 9th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
Honestly I would rather just stick to calling him Eddie Munster.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:26 PM ^
Well played
February 9th, 2022 at 11:54 AM ^
I'd like to see the balance of SEC and B1G schools in that top 20. Is our conference creeping toward something like parity?
February 9th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
I believe there is parity between the conferences outside of Bama and Georgia.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:46 PM ^
Yeah, I think that was the general conclusion at the end of last season. But if OSU is preseason one and we are #4, with Alabama and Georgia presumably sandwiched between us. . . that's what invited my question.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
So basically last year about the week before Thanksgiving?
February 9th, 2022 at 12:03 PM ^
Did you know that the Saturday after Thanksgiving, Michigan put a 42-27 physical beatdown on Ohio St? A lot of people don't know that.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:06 PM ^
Don't you know?
February 9th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
I’m sure he does. But it’s always nice to hear again!
February 9th, 2022 at 1:40 PM ^
Apparently he doesn't. YOU'VE GOT TO PUMP IT UP.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
Pump it up?
February 9th, 2022 at 2:33 PM ^
We could use some more details. I mean, did Haskins hurdle any fools? Did Hutchinson truck any 5-star OLs? Did Ross have any perfectly timed run blitzes?
We're working on some important stuff here.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
Gonna miss those guys.
*sniff*
February 9th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
OSU's 2021 and 2020 classes were historic. So it makes sense that any metric accounting for recruiting will inflate them. But this is where we find out if Ryan Day is really just a pinch runner on 3rd base.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:22 PM ^
Be careful with what you say. His grandpa is a vampire...
February 9th, 2022 at 12:25 PM ^
I also read - like you stated - that OSU's 2021 defensive 2-deep had 14 out of the 22 players from their 2020 and 2021 classes - and it showed on the field throughout the year - not just against us. I don't think OSU's success in 2022 comes down to Day and their offense - they'll be excellent - quite possibly the best in the country. All eyes will be on that defense to see if they've improved any from their shitty 2020 and 2021 units
February 9th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
Yep. The D is gonna turn on whether they find some DEs. Harrison was a project that didn’t meet expectations last year. He was a massive drop off from the Bosas then Young.
February 9th, 2022 at 8:05 PM ^
They're almost surely going to improve. It depends how much, and hopefully the offense has a bit of a dropoff with a couple WRs gone, but I wouldn't count on it. It's really funny how one win turned everyone from being unable to believe we could possibly beat OSU to we're clearly going to kick their ass again because their 4 and 5 star talent was young last year and they got rid of their mediocre DC. OSU wasn't a bad team last year. It's just that Michigan was better. I'd bet money OSU will be a better team this year and favored into The Game, but that doesn't mean Michigan can't win.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^
He could have gotten a hit by a pitch, sacrificed and bunted over
February 9th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^
or reached on an error and advanced on a wild pitch......
February 9th, 2022 at 12:54 PM ^
what about that hair color, is that a third base start, also? only his hairdresser knows....
February 9th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
Jack Sawyer is going to be a future first round pick.
OSU's big problem defensively is that they are an air raid offense. You are what you practice day in and day out. Same reason Texas and Oklahoma could load up on 5* talent year after year and give up a 50 burger to Texas Tech on any given Saturday.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
I don’t think I’d call Ohio State an air raid offense. They definitely are pass first, but their play selection isn’t nearly as imbalanced as you see in true Air Raid systems like Mike Leach’s.
That said, I do agree that their offensive style makes their defense’s job tougher. Their roster, even the scout team, is built to run a pass-first spread and can’t adequately replicate our power running scheme in practice. Also, the quicker you score, the more possessions each side gets, and and higher PPG allowed by the defense.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:55 PM ^
The other two: Slippery Rock and Little Sisters of the Poor?
February 9th, 2022 at 1:12 PM ^
Don't refer to Colorado State and Connecticut that way!
February 9th, 2022 at 1:54 PM ^
That's cold re CSU. But +1 because I laughed all the same/it is a fair statement these days
We are hoping the new coaching staff can get the Rams pointed in the right direction and return to respectable in a season or two.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
I'll take it.
Going to be a hard road to win at OSU this year; I think our defense is going to struggle at times. We might lose a game we shouldn't.
But I have high, high hopes for the offense. The assistant hirings aren't big-name spectacular on either side fo the ball, but they keep the same systems, giving the talent on the roster a strong base to grow from. The defense is going to take some work, having lost crucial talent, but as others are observing, the schedule lines up well for the team to figure things out.
We had an excellent season in 2021. We don't have to make the playoff to keep the run of success going; show that the trend continues upward, grow on offense, upgrade the NIL program, land a great recruiting class... the future is bright.
February 9th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
A helluva lot brighter than it was at this time last year, at any rate.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:13 PM ^
Does anyone know what "SP+" stands for? OP? Straw Poll+?
February 9th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
From Bill Connelly, the creator himself, the answer is S=success rate and P=eq. points per play
What goes into S&P+?
My original S&P ratings, derived long ago, were based on two measures: Success rate and equivalent Points per play. It was an attempt at an OPS-style measure for football, a look at both efficiency and explosiveness. As so many things do, however, it has grown more complicated.
In its current state, S&P+ is based around the core concepts of the Five Factors of winning football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers.
Since efficiency is by far the most replicable and least random aspect of football — big plays and turnovers decide games, but are incredibly random by nature — my success rate measure is the single biggest contributor to the S&P+ ratings.
Explosiveness does play a role, and to emphasize the importance of finishing drives, a team’s success rate during scoring opportunities (first downs inside the opponent’s 40) is given slightly more weight. Special teams efficiency plays a role in both field position and finishing drives, and sack rates are one of the only reliable, non-random factors that contribute to a team’s turnover margin. They’re thrown into the blender as well.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:17 PM ^
TY!!!!!!! +1