Pickin' and Grinnin' - AFC/NFC Championship Games
Mates,
Down to 4 teams left with the Super Bowl in 2 weeks. Tom Terrific v. Manning for the 412 th but final time is the first game, starting at 3:00 on CBS. Weather supposed to be a high of 50 with a chance of rain.
The Panthers vs. the Cards in Carolina is the second game, starting at 6:40 on FOX. Sunny and 35 degress for the Carolina game. The spread and over/under for each are as follows:
New England 3 @ Denver
Over/under = 44 1/2 pts.
@ Carolina 3 Arizona
Over/under = 47 1/2 pts.
Who are you picking, and why?
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:00 PM ^
Carolina 28 - Arizona 17
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January 24th, 2016 at 8:20 AM ^
Carolina 34 AZ 14
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:00 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:16 PM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 11:14 AM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:01 PM ^
Pats to cover. Chris Harris (Denver's best slot corner) is playing with one arm, will not be able to get a jam on Edelman, set's the table to the Pat's spread offense.
Carolina to cover. Cam get's the headlines, but their D has been amazing.
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:02 PM ^
NE to cover, under.
Car to cover, over.
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:03 PM ^
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January 23rd, 2016 at 11:04 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:14 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:07 PM ^
Panthers 34 Cardinals 27
Patiriots 24 Broncos 20
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:09 PM ^
Broncos - 21
Brady gets the best of Manning again. Manning just isn't the same QB anymore, and Brady is seemingly ageless.
Cardinals - 21
Panthers - 24
Two of the best teams in the NFL, but Panthers have a big time edge in the QB department. And this time of year that's the position that matters most.
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January 24th, 2016 at 1:53 AM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 8:12 AM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 10:40 AM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:09 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:18 PM ^
and i assume you are going to tease it?
January 24th, 2016 at 12:54 AM ^
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January 24th, 2016 at 7:22 AM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 10:24 AM ^
Are the biggest sucker bet you can make, the casinos best friend. Only time you should even considering parlay is some type of small wager high return combination (like 4-5 team combo for $5, or parlaying two underdog money lines). Or even smarter, just don't do it.
Here's a link (wizard of odds is the best data on the internet for this content) http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-parlay/
Teasers in the NFL (never tease college) can be profitable, if you're betting them properly. Teasing across key numbers (3, 7, 10). Most sharp guys I know bet mostly single games with the occasional teaser.
However, in dealing with a sport with as much random variance as football, betting single games is still the best strategy.
January 24th, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^
I only do them if I feel there is a tie-in. So, in the AFC you might say Broncos win only if it is low scoring, so parlay Denver +3 and under. If it is different games, might be better off doing single bets.
January 24th, 2016 at 2:30 PM ^
And my record on parlays this year would certainly affirm this to be true. But I bet for fun and entertainment, not to change my standard of living, so a parlay with a nice payout is more "fun" even though the odds are stacked against me. So I put down $100 on a Pats/Panthers parlay.
Hopefully my bet is still alive for game 2
January 24th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^
but if they're a 2-team correlated parlay (meaning if one side of the parlay wins than the other side of the parlay is more than likely to win now also) you have a tremendous edge and any sports book nowadays with a pulse will not allow one of these plays to go thru.
For example say early in the CFB season Baylor is playing Louisiana Monroe and the line is -38 and the total on the game is 50. That's a correlated parlay.
There's a specific math formula out there that off the top of my head I can't remember as it's been so long since I've done one of these but trust me long-term wise these carry as big of an edge that a sports bettor can find.
January 24th, 2016 at 8:01 AM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:11 PM ^
Patriots and Panthers in Super Bowl C.
A rematch of the b00bz bowl.
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:17 PM ^
please explain...
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:21 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:21 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:24 PM ^
i get it now. thanks.
we actually turn off the commercials and halftime b/c of the kids so we never saw it. in retrospect we were wiser than we knew.
January 24th, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
The Super Guides do not contain that information.
January 24th, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
The Super Guides do not contain that information.
January 24th, 2016 at 2:09 AM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:13 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:15 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:20 PM ^
Well, thats a lyric from a 2 Chainz song. " Watch Out"
So.....
He probably just likes 2 Chainz.
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:18 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:20 PM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:27 PM ^
Smart man.
January 24th, 2016 at 8:37 AM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 10:31 AM ^
Rarely will there be any advantage in high profile NFL games, most sharp guys mostly avoid NFL playoffs and college bowl season. Denver has value but I wouldn't make a big wager against NE in this spot. Arizona has some small value, but it depends how much stock you put into Palmer looking pretty poor last week and the defense not being the same without Honey badger.
In sports gambling, the higher profile the sport/event the less edge you will find. For example, there's very likely a random small school college basketball game today that has significantly more edge than any NFL game, its just the general public wants to wager on the NFL.
The smart play is mostly avoiding these games, I have a couple small wagers and some player props. I will be betting on whichever NFC team advances for the SB.
January 24th, 2016 at 11:38 AM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 11:50 AM ^
January 23rd, 2016 at 11:23 PM ^
Wouldn't want to bet on either game.
I want the Pats to crush Denver but I think it will be a close game. The more people I see say the Pats are going to win by a lot, the more concerned I get.
New England doesn't have a great run defense. If they can limit the run then I think it's all good.
NE should have hired Phil Niekro to toss the DB's passes this week to ready them for Peyton.
I hope Arizona wins but Carson was bad last week. If he doesn't improve on that Arizona is done. If Carson is still like last week Carolina will kill them. The Pack dropped 5 picks in that game last week.
January 24th, 2016 at 10:06 AM ^
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January 23rd, 2016 at 11:55 PM ^
January 24th, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^
Lotta people have counted Peyton out. If you watched their last game closely he easily throws for 300 without the 8 Drops. Call me crazy I actually thought he threw the ball extremely well, didn't look like earlier in the year.The only thing that loses them this game is Kubiaks extremely conservative play calling and inability to run an offense that plays to its strengths. The run game has been sub par at best and they seem to be content with running their heads into a brick wall. Almost the opposite of harbaughs philosophy this year.
And just gotta guy feelin on Zona
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January 24th, 2016 at 3:28 AM ^
And a 'guy' feeling on Arizona... You might want to get that checked out
January 24th, 2016 at 4:07 PM ^
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January 24th, 2016 at 7:53 AM ^
(this is not a compliment)
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