OT: Saban - "Alabama is no longer elite", reference to team and personnel

It's obvious the only REAL problem they have is not having an elite QB. Their defense is still lights out with a better than average but not great QB. That's a stacked roster with one fatal flaw.

The modern game is more QB driven than any other aspect. Look at the Patriots for proof. Belichik is elite. But it don't matter if you don't have a great QB.

So, you are relying on recruiting rankings of 20 year old kids who live in their moms basement, vs. a coach who has won countless national championships and makes tens of millions a year from overwhelming experience gained from coaching for decades.

Why do people insist recruiting rankings are accurate?  Look at the kids who make these lists up.  Offers are way more important than an evaluation made by a kid, most did not even play the sport!

I've been saying this for a while now, but I'll bet the issue is the scouting industry is getting polluted by mismanagement and NIL.  Yes, it's conjecture, but if you work in businesses long enough, capitalism gets stupidly predictable.

First off, even without NIL in the picture, MGoBlog has been lamenting the hollowing-out of scouting services for years now.  They're increasingly relying on centralized camps instead of sending scouts to HS games, making fire-and-forget reports without following up, and not even bothering to visit large swaths of the country.  They want more for less, like any other late-stage business.

But now add NIL to that picture.  Show up to a camp with elite measurables and you walk away with a rating worth potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars.  Oh, I'm sure the over-the-table papers all look like they're on the up-and-up, but scouting services would be leaving millions on the table if they weren't demanding some form of kickback over what's essentially free money they're handing out.

Programs like Alabama have bagmen fully integrated into this cycle.  So I mean, again no proof, what do you think's gonna happen when you put all these sleazebags into one place?

• Scouting services trying to centralize with exclusive camps
• Recruits (and their relatives!) wanting NIL money up front
• SEC bagmen ready to start a bidding war over any 5-stars

Good old-fashioned conservative values, I'm sure someone will insist.  Yeah, I've been around long enough to know what happens when every handshake at a party reeks of money.

Granted you can't lie about your measurables and get away with it (I doubt a single P5 program is buying a self-reported 40-time), so they can't exactly hand out sham ratings, and a WR with gecko hands that runs a 4.3 is still likely a legit star.  We will never be in an era when 5-stars don't matter, in that sense.  But class rankings are turning into garbage, making Alabama's reign there all fool's gold, because this process is insular.  It inflates the asking prices for players who ARE scouted, and the class rankings of the programs that yoink them.  Meanwhile, if there's a 4.3 guy with gecko hands in Podunk MA, Alabama doesn't know about him because there aren't camps there.  Programs like Michigan are increasingly relying on their own scouting, because the centralized process is badly overvalued.  (But Michigan recruits will often get a "Michigan bump" so the scouting services can maintain an illusion of legitimacy.)

There's some player greed involved, to be sure.  OSU isn't really getting their money's worth from their expensive DEs because they seem primarily interested in turning their elite measurables into paychecks.  But this is mostly a bubble.

Honestly, it's hilarious to me, because it means Alabama's "greed is good" business model is now largely working against them. . . because of greed.

Time to blame the players again, though.

Saban has a weird way of motivating his players........and I think this is just one of those attempts.

They are still elite, look at the last few years recruiting. Now maybe Saban needs to adjust the way he coaches that talent, but the talent is still there. One thread up is about how Harbaugh has transitioned from 2015 to now, and he cartainly has. Maybe Nick has to do the same type of thing.

Or Nick is sad about stuff because NIL (Now Its Legal) 

There are two things that have stood out to me while watching 'Bama this season and last season: 1) they're no longer as dominant in the trenches as they once were, and 2) they play sloppier and commit more penalties than they used to.

Given that their recruiting and level of raw talent haven't really fallen off, both of those issues seem to point to some kind of erosion of discipline in the program. That's what put 'Bama in a class by itself. Saban was known for his obsessive adherence to systems and processes, to the point that he could turn over an entire staff and not miss a beat. He had every detail within the program down a a science to such a great extent that his assistant coaches were essentially plug-and-play modules. My sense is that age combined with inertia has caused Saban to lose a step on maintaining the entire system. It's no longer as finely-tuned or well-oiled a machine as it once was.

He's always been a mediocre coach who coasted on having the best talent by a mile which he acquired via dirty tactics.

Nick Saban has (had?) two superpowers:

1) In a league full of cheaters and bagmen, he managed to be the best at it.

2) He had an incredible ability to recognize or predict when his approach needed to change. Saban changed up offensive systems at EXACTLY the right moments, sometimes even mid-season. Sure, his roster full of 5* athletes made this easier, but he never, ever, dug in his heels and said “we shall win by doing X” if Y was a better strategy, and his ability to identify and implement Y was amazing.

If either of those two superpowers has abandoned him, he won’t get the most out of his roster of still-very-talented athletes 

All dynasties come to an end. They at least go in cycles.

NIL has changed the landscape. It's not the be-all-end-all as Texas A&M is a good example. The bottom line is that is more parity than ever across the Power-5.

Michigan has the rare blend of great assistant coaches and recruiting players that will fit their system and culture.

Nick Saban has had a lot of assistant coaching changes and the current staff just isn't getting it done. They're good but it looks like a step down from the prior years.

Alabama really hasn't fallen off much. It's just that Georgia really took off suddenly.

Seems like a fair amount of Alabama's "decline" is just the function of turnover.

They turn over players at a higher rate than other programs when it comes to guys leaving for the NFL.  At least that's the perception.  So the starters are younger, see, e.g., freshman left tackle.  Five star, sure, but freshman.

And they turn over the coaching staff as well.  Go down the list of assistants and it's crazy how many of them were hired in 2022 and 2023.

Saban is eternal, but everything else around him is shifting.

I do think Bama misses Matt Rhea, who is now doing great work for the New Orleans Saints.

This is so obvious. Alabama was what it was because they cheated. They were leading when they could pull these kids in with bags of cash under the table. Now that everyone does it, and donors who wouldn't want to be involved with doing things that would get the school in trouble can freely do what they want, is Alabama really attractive any more? Can Alabama's alums really keep up financially with the NIL punch of alumni bases like USC and Texas and Texas A&M now that its all above-board? The answer is a definitive no.  It was one thing when you could get a top 100 recruit to come to your school with $100,000 in a brown paper bag. Now the expectations have a few more zeroes on the end placed in a car and possibly some endorsement deals in the glove compartment for good measure ( I don't mean at Billy Bob's Bait & Tackle or Cooters Used Car Lot). Alabama can't keep up. Its just that simple. Its not like the State of Alabama puts out gobs and gobs of talent so they don't have the "play for the local team" angle to bolster them either. Their bag just isn't big enough now that everyone can offer one. 

You are accepting Saban's comments at face value. He is trying to rally his guys. It becomes hard, I am sure, when a program has such sustained success to maintain an edge. To motivate. Bama still has perennially the best talent and coaching, from the head coach and especially the coordinators. They are the gold standard. 

Michigan has had two outstanding years, and is off to a great start. Michigan is on a lower tier than Alabama. 

Bama's deficiencies are not in recruiting talent. They're still the best there. Their deficiencies may include retaining talent, with the transfer portal and NIL being what it is. However, their biggest issue the last few years is definitely in coaching. Saban can't get and retain the top assistant coaches like he used to. Will he be able to again? Possibly. Will he have a run of national title dominance like he's enjoyed over the years? I doubt it.

I personally believe a lot of the high four star talent and a few of the five star talent is based on stats that are inflated by playing weaker competition than what is assumed at the high school level. Many of those players don’t really learn the basics as well and rely more on their athleticism to make the plays that get the stats that lead to higher rankings. 
 

When teams like OSU and Alabama get that talent it’s harder to develop properly than the guys Harbaugh and Michigan are getting. Then their actual current talent level is equaled by teams like Michigan’s once Michigan players get to be upperclassmen. 
 

Michigan would have the same issues if they were the ones getting OSU level “talent”, no matter who the coaches were. I like how Michigan is doing things as it seems more sustainable over time.

Well boo-effing-hoo! Alabama is no longer recruiting head and shoulders better than the team with the #2 recruiting class. They're on par with not just one, but the next two teams in recruiting. (gasp) If that's your definition of "elite," wake up and realize everyone is allowed to match your bag operation with NIL. Sucks when you have been used to that systemic advantage.

If you use a normal definition of "elite," Alabama still belongs in that category, and comfortably so.

Their OL isn’t at the same level it’s been previously and they’re trying to Brady Hoke their round mobile QB into a square pocket passer hole.

If they had an elite QB it changes everything. The end.

It’s almost like Saban is admitting that recruiting advantages are the only way to outperform. Not scheme or development. Maybe his mediocre results at MSU prove that point.

On the other hand, I hope that JH gets a recruiting advantage for just a couple of years.  Give UM guys like Justin Scott, Aaron Scott, etc - all the top tier recruiters that he truly wanted and would fit the team culture. Mix in the current 2024 class and watch the results.

Between the team buying in to what we wanna do and Herbert and Abigail transforming skinny and or chubby 18 yr olds into lightning eating and thunder shitting grown men. I’d say yes, our development is better at this point. Plus Sabans getting long in the tooth and has earned the right to slow down and enjoy the sun on his face on his own terms. I just hope he lets the program know and can go out on his own, head held high. My company has an office in Birmingham and regardless of what people think of Bama, their fans are really some good people and very un OSU like. 

I think he’s trying to make an excuse for his coaching efforts.