OT: Oh look, a Harbaugh has to speak when nobody else will - John calls out the NFL's Covid policies
On a local radio show yesterday, John said the NFL's policies, which essentially mirror societies Covid-19 policies, are not really workable for football. He said there's no way to enforce distancing in huddles, or the showers, and that communication is paramount. The implication there being face masks and zoom meetings are not workable for football.
None of this is a surprise, nor has it not been thought of. And maybe some other coaches have said things locally to their fans? Nonetheless, the national news (Yahoo, in this case) picked up a Harbaugh voice - again. Personally, I'm glad the Harbaugh family is joined at the hip with Michigan football...
I do agree that the NFL (and college, as it were) should shape it's public story to fit how the game will actually be played. I'm not really interested in hearing the NFL talk about distancing, while seeing it's players shoulder to shoulder in the huddle. Tell me what you're doing, NFL. Be honest - tell people you're going against Covid-19 protocol to play the game. We won't care, we'll tune in to watch, and we'll turn a (mostly) blind eye when our multi-millionaire hero players get sick. (Or don't...)
Yes, I will watch. Just be honest with what you're doing!
It's more just a general thought as schools and offices open back up and activity moves inside.
Although I do think reduced air travel will help a lot, if it can be maintained at current levels.
This is setting up for a very ugly scenario this Fall
- Southern/Western states just now getting the first wave.
- Mass evictions (families and small businesses)
- Layoffs when PPP money runs out (thankfully this was extended but most will have used up the loan before August)
- Reduction in unemployment benefits (extra $600 a month ends July 31st)
If the Stock Market remains high/overpriced the Senate will not be motivated to pass any additional stimulus.
user name not checking out.
Nice to see you are only using one these days
i only have one. and i was just pulling your chain a little, no offense intended.
if its any comfort, yesterday i had a conversation with the head of pathology for spectrum health here in michigan and i asked him what he thought about all the restrictions for C-19. his quote, "I think it's bullshit" he also said he doesn't trust the numbers.
It's pretty easy to always be able to find at least one person who agrees with your own POV on this situation.
But, the overwhelming evidence is that this isn't bullshit.
We've got many friends who are doctors. As a group, they work in every major healthcare system in SE MI. Every single one of them thought the restrictions were necessary for keeping the healthcare system from being overrun. And every single one of them thinks the numbers are undercounting the number of cases and number of deaths caused by Covid-19.
We also have friends and family members who work at nursing homes, assisted living, etc...and they've all said it's been like a war zone since mid-March.
And pretty much every funeral home operator will tell you they've never been busier than they have been over the past three months.
Just wait until all those empty office towers fill back up, then we'll really be off to the races. Each one has 100's or 1,000's of people in it, sitting on top of each other in cubicle farms, with windows that don't open, and HVAC systems that's aren't designed to filter out any pathogens.
Personally, I think that moving most people out of those buildings and into work from home situations, probably slowed the spread more than anything else.
Ugly like 62-39 or ugly like "defeat with dignity"?
I think the death rate will be closer to 1k/day for the coming months, but I largely agree.
The problem is that with all of the economic uncertainty in the fall, people will push themselves back to work. That will necessitate some form of child care, and so the schools will be open in some ad-hoc capacity, likely with a mixture of in-person and distance learning for district/parents that can afford to do so and even more uncertainty for those that can't.
It seems like the end result will be similar to Sweden in that the US is just going to try to wait out the virus until something resembling a treatment or vaccine is readily available. What the government has to hope and pray is that one of the vaccines they have pushed through works out and becomes generally available by early 2021. If not and they have to start from the ground up again, it's going to be insane.
If we go the Swedish route and taking their deaths at 4,854 from March 12 to June 11 which averages to approx 53 a day, taking into account that the US has 32x higher population than Sweden, then we'd be looking at upwards of 1,700 deaths a day which would account for approx 50k deaths per a month.
The Swedish population, while slightly older than the the US as a whole, are or at least seem to be in far better shape than most Americans.
I would strongly advise against going the route Sweden went but, unfortunately, the US doesn't seem capable or willing to go the route you see in parts of Asia and Europe that really did bend the curve all the way down (at best the US just made it plateau a bit early on). And there were stretches over the past couple of months where the US averaged 2k deaths a day, so 1700 isn't remotely out of the picture even though larger population centers along the East Coast, for example, have had their explosion and might be better prepared for a resurgence.
But yeah, I think a lot of people got sort of lulled into a false sense of security when places seemed to dodge that first wave. But the virus doesn't "stop" if it misses a population once, and it seems like some areas may not be as lucky again.
Would you advise against going the route Japan did? They are not testing, they are not locking down, their numbers are quite good. They are all wearing masks and have other smaller restrictions, but that's it.
I feel like a lot of what Japan is trumpeting is what states like GA, FL, TX, etc. claimed were "victories" months ago (low positive rates, few deaths, limited closures) that are now looking more like dumb luck/lack of infections/poor accounting for deaths that may not be reproducible. Maybe Japan, which is old but also has pretty strict adherence to certain norms that may help mitigate disease spread, did just get it right and survived. But I also wonder if they won't be hit by some other wave and have to impose more draconian measures.
My general feeling is that shutting everything down wasn't a long-term solution; we as a society have to weigh the risks of disease spread with the costs of trying to put the toothpaste back into the container, as we are, via shutdowns and restricted movement. And frankly, we weren't all that good about shutting down outside of certain areas; Boston and NYC were way more restrictive than, say, Florida, and so even if the northeast cut down on transmission you apparently had other pockets fire up. And I'm not saying FL did it wrong or MA did it right; thousands of people died in Boston and the rate isn't that low. But I do think if everyone in the country consistently wore some form of face cover, thoroughly washed their hands, and did consistent testing we'd probably be better off than we are now.
This is a nuanced view that I appreciate. Having said that, you are mistaken that Florida and Georgia are now looking like mistakes or dumb luck. The numbers in all three states you mentioned are still quite good, all have lots of available hospital beds, the so called "surge" in their numbers are all from very low bases, which I know you know about statistically, for example the recent increase in Florida numbers the media is pushing has them at the same per capita as NY right now, after NY has "crushed" the curve according to Cuomo. As for waiting two weeks, GA has been open for almost five weeks now, and the exact same (public) people that said that GA was going to kill people and let's see what happens in two weeks are now trying to reclaim their reputations by warning us about a new surge IMO. Another example: we are reading about the death increase in Texas and Houston- it has increased to 151 deaths over the week, well, it was 221 deaths the last week of April there. Last example: many reports this week about the increase in cases in (depending on the media outlet) either 19 or 21 states, which has been termed "alarming" in the media. Unreported is that numbers are falling in another 19 states at the same time.
No one, including me, knows anything for sure. It will take a year from now after all the studies are done and the vaccine arrives (which interestingly, Fauci "guaranteed" this week in an interview that got far less attention than his comment in the same interview that we are still at the beginning of Covid). But I think it's clear for now that the full lockdowns were counterproductive. I think the mandating of masks in public is probably the right way to go too.
Makes sense to me. I've found many rules about Covid quite arbitrary. They seem to be willing to make exceptions to best practice in some areas while not in others. As an avid gym goer this has irked me. So, it's safe to get 100 people in a grocery store, but we can't get 20 people in a gym to workout?
That's not arbitrary.
Some of the biggest outbreaks (e.g., the choir practice in Washington; packed stadium soccer match in Italy) were places where people were yelling, singing, breathing hard -- essentially expelling breath (and virus) at a high rate. For example:
https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-superspreader-singing.html
A COVID-19 superspreader unknowingly infected 52 people with the new coronavirus at a choir practice in Mount Vernon, Washington, in early March, leading to the deaths of two people, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) report finds.
I don't know what you do at a super market, but most people I see barely talk, let alone yell. But when you work out, you breathe heavy for quite a long time as a natural part of working out. That spreads any airborne virus dramatically more.
If you put 10-20 people spread out in a large commercial gym, you're not very close to anyone else.
How are those things even comprable? Do you physically exert yourself to the point of heavy open breathing while grocery shopping? I hope not.
Most people don't do that when they lift weights or stretch either unless they are doing circuit training. That's more akin to cardio, which I can understand making restrictions to.
So is your concern that people working out might get the virus, or spread it to the vulnerable? Because the vast majority of ppl at the gym are not vulnerable to any serious consequences of CV.
The NFL is worth billions. I can't believe that with all that money, they can't afford to give everyone the same earpiece technology that's in QB helmets and add some extra showers as well. And those are bare minimum steps to provide player safety.
What's interesting is that I haven't heard anyone mention the refs. They're typically older than the players and interact with both them and the coaches. Do they think the refs will be okay with just a mask and gloves?
You could have posted this without he righteous "Oh look, a Harbaugh has to speak when nobody else will." That just makes you look like an asshat who is trying to jerk off the whole Harbaugh family.
First - What should be done
Second - My personnel opinion (worth shit, I know)
First - All employees of an organization (such as the NFL) should vote as to whether the season should commence. If a sufficient threshold (TBD) of votes are "yes", then the season commences like normal and those not wanting to participate are laid off until they wish to participate. If the sufficient threshold is not reached, the season is cancelled and all employees are laid off. If the season commences, fans either attend or not attend at their own discretion, with fan allotments dictated by the amount of participation offered by the employees. (E.g. if 70% of all employees want to work, then stadiums may be limited to 70% capacity. It's not this simplistic, but a rough order of process.) My guess at the sufficient threshold TBD = 60%.
Second - My opinion, like it or not, is the national response to Covid-19 has been severely overblown. Yes, the virus should be taken seriously, but not to the point that the country should've shut down. I won't get into all the reasons I feel this way after months of reading facts and statistics, but in summary: this virus isn't the black death. It primarily impacts the elderly, which, yeah, like most other diseases do. And driving a car has a comparable national death rate to Covid-19. I feel the national response to Covid-19 is due to one underlying reason: Nobody wants to be the one to put their neck on the line to say "it's ok to do things" and then have someone die under their watch. Nobody wants to risk being wrong, less they may lose their job. So the CDC, governments, school systems, etc, play things ultra safe. Which, I mean, I get it. It's hard to swim against the current/popular opinion. Everyone has their own opinion, of course, and should make up their own mind. But that's mine.
Interesting post. What is interesting is that I think playing it "ultra safe" as you put it, is actually swimming against current popular opinion. I think your opinion is actually a really common opinion, and is shared by most people that I know, and likely far more than anybody realizes. People in my community are literally beating down the doors of camps and other recreational and educational opportunities for kids. It does not seem that way because popular media is actually engaged in very real censorship of people who articulate a stance like yours.
Of the people that I know who are not elderly, nobody really even talks about Covid anymore.
It's a classic issue of counter-factuals. Maybe the response has been totally overblown. Maybe the response has kept a lot of people from dying. We will probably never be able to say which is true with any confidence, even in retrospect.
NFL? Honest? LMAOOO!
Sports is really in fantasy land with thinking they can open without issues. N.C. said today they may need to shutdown again. Watch TX and AZ closely because they are in the same boat.
https://www.charlottestories.com/nc-officials-warn-of-possible-second-shutdown-due-to-recent-surge-in-covid-19-cases/
Wait till MI opens up more, seems to be the pattern of rapid rise in cases. Whitmer will have tough decisions with a 2nd shutdown.
Normalcy is not happening without a vaccine.
I follow this web site, it tracks the changes in R on a per-state basis.
Importantly, it controls for the fact that there are increases/decreases in testing, and how confirmed cases may be rising because of that.
So --- North Carolina. Yes, their daily cases are increasing. Their R, on a daily basis, however, is basically 1.
E.g., --- the increases are nearly completely accounted for by accounting for testing increases.
You probably are right --- we will never get to normal before the vaccine. But I'm also a bit disappointed by the inability of some, including state health directors, to put numbers into a greater context.
The call was for more testing. We GOT more testing. But then we don't consider that context very well when analyzing numbers.
R is important - yes. However, 2k fatalities per day, with a new estimate of 200k fatalities by September, does not seem encouraging that re-opening isn’t going to be anything more than a mess.
We haven't had 2000+ deaths from COVID in America on any single day since 7-May. Our (7-day moving average) daily deaths have actually dipped below 1000.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Now, that's still a significant amount of deaths. But the trend is down.
As for an estimate of 200,000 deaths by September -- yes, that's possible. September 30, 2020 is 109 days away and we have 116,626 total deaths now. Thus, an average of 762 days/day gets us to 200K.
But: given that (1) R should theoretically be a leading predictor of downstream deaths, (2) R is still below 1 in a majority of states per the web-site I linked, and (3) daily deaths are now below 1000 per day and has shown a downward trend over time ---- I do not view it as certain we get to that 200K number by end of September.
It's possible, but I wouldn't be betting on it just yet. Time will tell.
1. Cases across the US are rising rapidly in many states. [AZ, NC, SC, GA, TX, AK, TN, etc.] Some states may execute a 2nd shutdown. These are predominately states that re-opened.
2. Hospitalizations have moved up across many states - particularly the ones listed above.
3. Fatalities are projected to rise. Numbers range from 160k-200k by September
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
R has been low in a number of states since this started - due to states with low population density. Aggregated R is meaningless when populated states are being overrun with multiple waves.
Even some NBA Players are questioning the decision to move forward.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/12/coronavirus-live-updates-us/#link-SDSOCWKTO5GRNCPKJVAM4ZW54M
my personal opinion, I could give a shit whether there's an NFL season this year or not, I'd definitely miss college sports (if fball or basketball or hockey were cancelled) much more so than pro sports ... and for the record, I've got/had 6 NFL season tix (and PSL's) for the past 16 seasons... and 'no' they're not Lions season tix
to be clear, I thoroughly agree that professional & college sports do provide a sense of community, entertainment and many other positive things for the public (including jobs!); but over the past 4 months (my mother passing away and our country facing covid-19, economic and racial challenges, etc), I've recalibrated my view on sports ...especially professional sports