OT Navigating the Zika panic
I literally have not posted on this site in 3 years and 41 weeks (though I read it daily). I know that Zika virus has been mentioned on this site previously, but with The Games starting in a couple of days, I wanted to share an article that I just published called "Navigating the Zika Panic." The hype about the virus and the Olympics has been filled with over-speculation and fear-mongering, some at the fault of "experts", but mostly by the media. Even some of the comments posted on this site were totally off base. Here are my assessments (from someone who actually studies the Zika virus epidemic and has spent 7+ years researching mosquito-borne viruses):
- Yes, the Zika virus epidemic is a major public health concern.
- There is a risk for athletes and visitors traveling to the Olympics to become infected with Zika virus, though it is astonishingly low (like 1:30,000 to 1000,000 people during the three weeks).
- While the individual risk to become infected with Zika virus is low, women who are pregnant or are expecting to become pregnant should not travel to any Zika virus endemic area (essentially, any non-zero risk for a developing fetus is too high). This includes men with pregnant partners, though we are not sure if sexual transmission of Zika virus can result in birth defects. This is justifiably why Harbaugh cancelled his camp in American Samoa.
- With only 5 to 80 visitors expected to become infected (based on some really good models), the impact of the Olympics to further spread Zika virus in minimal.
- There is currently no evidence that the Zika virus strain circulating in the Americas is more severe than any other strains circulating in Asia and Africa. The reason for the severe pathologies are likely the size of the epidemic - rare events require a large sample size.
If you would like to read more, here is the full article:
http://f1000research.com/articles/5-1914/v1
And the "CliffsNotes" version (an online interview):
http://blog.f1000research.com/2016/08/04/the-games-must-go-on-navigatin…
Go Blue!
Nathan D. Grubaugh, M.S., Ph.D.
1) The epidemic is severe becuase over the last couple of years, and going into the future, lots of people have/will become infected (like 1-2 million, or more). About 1% of babies born from women who get infected in their first trimester will develop a severe pathology. At any given time the risk is really low for a person to become infected. It's all about how long you are exposed to the risk. If you like in Brazil, you are exposed for a long time and will likely get infected at some point. For three weeks in the winter, probably not.
2) Entire population using measures of expected numbers of infections. So not just for the horrible outcomes.
3) More numbers of infected people at one time. No Zika virus outbreak before now included more than ~20,000-30,000 people. It's likely about 1,000,000 in the Americas. Rare events become apparent with lots of infections. Plus, retrospectively people are associating microcephaly and GBS with past outbreaks.
Remember when we were all going to die from the bird flu or ebola?
I made a little money off ebola. Invested in a little company that makes hazmat suits. The panic tripled the price in like a week and then I got out.
So is there a Brazilian mosquito spray maker that I should be targeting?
I would definitely not take any of my advice on stocks though. I don't play with much money and treat it more like sports gambling.
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And any of 1000 other end-of-days warnings through the media over the last 50(?) years. At about 40 I just decided to ignore it all. I'm still planning on avoiding the Middle East in general, and the Caribbean in the summer, but everything else I just consider noise.
If you are concerned, and want to avoid something, I don't blame you, but I'm just over it.
Not all of the data is from Brazil and most of it comes from Universities and public health organizations. There is, however, lots of estimation going on.
Are we all supposed to put our titles after our posts?
At least it was for a professional piece of work he authored. It'd be worse if he shared a cat meme and did it.
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Here is info I have found on this ..
The Zika virus has been around it seems for more than 70 years, yet all the sudden its a thing.
The whole Brazil thing, well it seems the whole skull / brain issue followed very shortly after they started spraying heavily the chemical "pyriproxyfen" which is a growth inhibitor. This results in generating malformations in developing mosquitoes and killing or disabling them. After that it seems (from the research I did awhile back looking into it) is when also the rise in
Pyroproxyfen is also extremely toxic to all forms of life that have a nervous system.
So, I think there could be an issue directly with that and not so much the Zika.
Zika virus is almost completely harmless to nearly everyone.
CDC which says:
http://www.cdc.gov/zika/about/overview.html
• "Many people infected with Zika virus won’t have symptoms or will only have mild symptoms." (most people won't even experience any ill effects)
• "People usually don’t get sick enough to go to the hospital, and they very rarely die of Zika."
• "Once a person has been infected with Zika, they are likely to be protected from future infections." (Your body will most likely self-immunize against Zika)
It doesn't seem really any more dangerous than like the Flu per say. In other words to me anyway it doesn't seem like as bad of an issue as it's being made out to be. Many things can make us sick mildly and or worse. Again it's been known about and around for 70+ years. The Brazil thing brought it to the forefront.
"Zika virus has been around for seven decades, and it has infected up to 75% of the populations in some countries during those decades. No increase in microcephaly has ever been documented from Zika infections alone."
are hot enough to forego concerns such as these. I mean they are among the best batches in the world.
One writes in a very verbose style and reads like a guy that's about 55-65 y/o. The other writes like a 20-something brah. Very confusing.
Zika virus is not likely to cause severe disease in adults - but that is not the issue. LOTS of new evidence shows that Zika virus alone can cause microcephaly. Is this a new feature of the virus? Probably not. Could other factors, such as a toxin, also be involved? Yes. But there is no evidence to support pyriproxyfen is causing microcephaly, only over-speculation.
http://www.who.int/emergencies/zika-virus/articles/rumours/en/
This has been debunked
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/health-experts-dismiss-claims-larvicide-linked-to-microcephaly/
Zika is NOT harmless to pregnant women. That is just completely not true.
I know, isn't it great!
What about the turds in the water? How does that rate on the Olympic major public health concern meter?
I was kinda being serious...
but I like your take better!!!
Awesome post... a couple of quick questions:
1. Do you think traveling to Miami while pregnant will be a problem in December - I figured the worry was during summer months.
2. If you go to an area that may have Zika (i.e. Panama) is there anyting to do except wait 2-3 months before trying to get pregnant? I am going down there for a weekend next month and I asked my doctor about doing a test and they said no unless I have symptons, but only 20% of people with the virus show symptons.
Thanks
1) december should probably be fine. Ask again in November.
2) That's tough. I travel to these places a lot for work AND my wife and I are wanting about having another baby in the next couple of years. Luckily, I can [cough cough] test myself to see if I could give Zika virus to my wife. You are right that if you did get infected, likely you wont have symptoms. Hopefully with more research we can give more specific advice as to how long to wait. 2-3 months waiting is a good idea at this time.
Thanks, hopefully things are good in December to travel to Miami as I hope we will be pregnant by then.
Re: Panama - it has been so frustrating not to be able to get tested and to now show symptons... even if I wait two months I am going to be freaking out in month 3 or 4 - how do we know we are ok?
Honestly, I would be freaking out too (there is something inherently scary about even the potential to cause harm to a baby, versus if it is just a risk to myself, i'm like "no big deal"). I am going to test myself several times to make sure that there is NO Zika virus in my semen. So, I'd stress this importance to your doctor to get tested when you get back - unfortunately that is the only way to know. My email is linked to the article, send me a message if you have questions in the future. There may be private clinics that will offer testing.
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LOL. So much for their having fun playing the beautiful game. The enormous pressue on them will just increase exponentially. When will they crack?
Can't this thing be passed through sexual activity? Isn't the Olympics basically a gigantic orgy with people from all over the world who are then going to travel back home and have more sex when they show off their awesome medals at the local pub? Have you factored this into your study?
"Direct human-to-human transmission is another possible route of Zika virus infection. These routes notably include transmission from mother to child during pregnancy and sexual transmission from a man to a woman69. Other forms of human-to-human transmission scenarios also appear to exist70. Therefore, could sustained Zika virus transmission occur without mosquitoes and should this be a concern for further spread of the epidemic? Again, let’s use an example: an infected man returns home from the Games and has sex with his partner. There are numerous reports of Zika virus infection associated with sex with a man (or woman71) returning from an endemic region72–74. Therefore, in this scenario, there is immediate risk to his partner. Importantly, however, in each of these reports, Zika virus spread was limited to just those single contacts. Thus, sex and other modes of direct contact with an infectious individual is highly unlikely to lead to sustained transmission in a new population. It has also been estimated that the role of sexual transmission in Brazil is minimal compared to mosquitoes75, and without mosquitoes, transmission would dissipate. The single most compelling piece of evidence to support that Zika virus is primarily mosquito-borne is that it is only known to occur in regions with Ae. aegypti67. Therefore, Zika virus is still considered to be primarily transmitted by mosquitoes and sexual transmission (or other yet-to-be-discovered human-to-human means of transmission) will likely not expand the expected range of the Zika virus epidemic."
Thanks. I did not read it as I'm sure you correctly assumed.
But I have to confess, I'm not a doctor.
You'll be just fine.
Go below it and the risk is considerable in certain countries.
CDC Warning for Mexico:http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/alert/zika-virus-mexico
I think the best you can hope for is a refereed rejection, if it even makes it past the editor's desk. I mean, how is any knowledgeable reader supposed to take your work seriously when the first reference you cite is by someone named Dick?
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3 fairly recent Zika podcasts done by some of the best molecular biologists can be found on 'This Week in Virology'. Great site and info, can be understood fairly well by laypersons.
Their take- Not a lot to worry about.