OT - Detroit Tigers Sign Justin Upton

Submitted by Stringer Bell on

6 year deal, per Jon Heyman of CBS.  Money hasn't been announced yet.

 

Love the move personally.  Only 28 years old, very good bat and serviceable in the outfield.

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WMUgoblue

January 18th, 2016 at 9:46 PM ^

Well we're certainly going to be over the luxury tax, so credit Illitch for paying for a winner. Risky move but Upton is a solid player, who likely will never live up to his potential, but can still be a valuable asset to this team.

Thoughts: Overpay, but the internal options weren't good.

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Stringer Bell

January 18th, 2016 at 9:50 PM ^

Ilitch clearly hasn't given up on this team's championship window.  Pitching is still a question mark, but good lord that lineup with Kinsler, Miggy, JD, Upton, V-Mart (assuming he bounces back), Iglesias, and with potential improvements from McCann and Castellanos.  Defense should be solid.  Definitely looking like a contender again.

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WMUgoblue

January 18th, 2016 at 9:56 PM ^

I think the rotation is in far better shape than others do. JV, Zimmerman, Sanchez (health is the big question) and Norris is a good 1-4 and Pelfrey can eat some innings ala Porcello 2010-2013 until Fulmer, Boyd, or Greene develop. Actually fielding a competent bullpen with also help the rotation out.

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Stringer Bell

January 18th, 2016 at 9:59 PM ^

I like the rotation too actually.  JV and Zimmermann is a good 1-2, I assume Sanchez will return more to his career norms next year (much improved over his past season), and Norris was looking pretty good last year.  Pelfrey as a 5 is pretty solid as well.  Plus they got K-Rod to upgrade the bullpen.  Still some question marks but the pitching looks much better than it did last year.

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the fume

January 19th, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^

Ian, Miggy, JD, Upton all hit RHP very well. Maybin actually has reverse splits, and Gose will see ABs anyway.

McCann hits RHP poor but Salty will see a good amount of ABs if that continues.

Nick and Iggy are the trouble areas against RHP for 2016, based on 2015.

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Quailman

January 18th, 2016 at 11:41 PM ^

I don't Maybin is a leadoff hitter. Probably will go back to Kinsler at the top. Would love to see Miggy get some time at the 2-hole from time to time, but I think Upton slots in there nicely.

Kinsler-Upton-Cabrera-JD-Victor-Castellanos-McCann-Maybin-Iglesias  (or Iglesias-Gose)

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redjugador24

January 19th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^

You can't judge value 1 day into a 5 year contract, but if you told me the tigers signed a strikeout machine to a $132 million contract I'd sure hope you were talking about a starting pitcher.  Good Pitching > Good Hitting  Upton could still turn out to be a stud (see JD Martinez, who has a high K rate himself) but I'd rather see them invest that $ into a dominant pitcher and live with a cheaper, high OBP left fielder to compliment JD, Miggy, Victor, etc.

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Michigan4Life

January 18th, 2016 at 9:53 PM ^

Don't like the fact they're paying him 20 mil per when they could use it on a pitcher and platoon OF. The team would be better IMO. Upton is such a streaky hitter so it's hard for it to justify the contract



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Stringer Bell

January 18th, 2016 at 10:11 PM ^

Well none of these players are worth the money.  Baseball players are overpaid, that's nothing new.  I would've preferred Gordon, but it came down to either Cespedes or Upton.  Both come with risks and both have serious upside, but the Tigers added a nice middle of the order bat to put around Miggy and are definitely a better team.  And yeah, it might be desperate, but it's no secret that Miggy, JV, Victor, etc. are getting up there in years.  Gotta go for it while you can with those guys.

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mbrummer

January 18th, 2016 at 11:05 PM ^

But if you expect him to suck in his two peak years?  Then who are you going to sign?

A 5 WAR player is definitely worth 20 per by going rates.  Plus the tv contract is up.

Name some names that improve the team?  This magical platoon for Maybin and relievers that improve a team at more than 4 WAR this year?

Ian Kennedy just got 14 million a year.  Chris Davis just got 23 per, at 250 average 45 homers and playing 1b.

Baseball teams make money.  Free agency is expensive.

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mbrummer

January 18th, 2016 at 11:36 PM ^

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml

WAR was 4.4  last year?  WAR cost is about 6-7 per on the free market.  

Upton has problems.  But Illitch has shown time and time again, he doesn't go small.  He goes big and sells tickets.

Worst case this contract is done by the time he's 34.

Feelingsball...I think he plays better when in contention.  

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Maize_Nation

January 18th, 2016 at 11:44 PM ^

The Tigers franchise value grew 65% last year. The average MLB franchise grew 48% last year. The cost of WAR is going to jump. And in the Tigers situation, where they will be fighting for the pkayoffs, each additional win becomes more valuable. And I would imagine, given he is entering his prime years, that he will outperform 7 WAR over the next two years. If he does that, he will opt out, because that will be his last chance at a long term contract. And with the inflating contracts, he will get more opting out after 2 years than he would by taking the option. This is a 2 year contract, on a player in his late 20's. It improves the Tigers chances greatly for the next two years, and will most likely be off the books for when the 2018 FA class hits.

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mbrummer

January 18th, 2016 at 10:33 PM ^

So he might opt out after 2 years.  May cost the Tigers only 50 million for 2 years.  I assume its front loaded.

You can't cry over spilled milk.  Fielder was bad, but Dombrowski did a magic trick.

Yes in 6 years, it might be more and he's worth.   But he will be still only 34.  All contracts look bad at the end.

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BuckNekked

January 19th, 2016 at 9:44 AM ^

So .251/.336/.454  with 26 HRs and an 11% walk rate. Isnt the defender that Cespedes is but he was better than league average over his 2 years in left field and his walk rate and speed pushes him past Cespedes at the plate. Hes been worth 3.4 WAR and 4.0 WAR over the last two years. His salary is right in line with his WAR. His wRC+ of 120 is  very good. As a comparison an average players wRC+ is 100. Slotted in front of Miggy I expect all of his offensive numbers, except maybe walk rate, to improve. He will see a ton of fastballs.

This is a good signing, especially with the opt out after 2 years. And he is 4 years younger than Gordon so even if he doesnt opt out Id rather have this guy. And it fills a gaping hole in left. This move makes Detroit a contender IMO.

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mbrummer

January 18th, 2016 at 10:09 PM ^

A platoon Rajai Davis type is 5 million per.  Leaving you with 15 per for a pitcher.

Which is basically what Ian Kennedy got.  Yikes

JV, Zimmy, Sanchez, Norris, Pelfrey is a decent rotation.  Heck the last two WS winners won with less in the rotation.

Upton is a 1st half player though.  I agree.

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