NIL, Big 10 Expansion, and General Musings Q&A
Figured with all that is going on in college sports, I could stop by to help answer any board questions. For the folks who do not know me-- I have been around the board for a little while popping up when I have knowledge on specific subjects, or other general knowledge. I'm not an insider, and I don't claim to have inside info about the team. My knowledge comes from a long time working in the industry and is from people all over: agents, coaches, current/former players, and support staff. So it is mostly an amalgamation of all of that info and not just one specific thing that I am hearing.
- My knowledge of the team is more on a few specific players. So I don't know who's been getting reps, nor do I know any super secret breakout players.
- I imagine I will be getting the most questions on NIL, but I've posted extensively on this in the past, so I may refer to go back to some of my answers from last summer to avoid putting the same thing out there.
- One big takeaway from all things NIL is that the current system is untenable. What is happening right now will not be the way it operates going forward. I can promise you that-- the structure is going to change.
- NIL in general is great in getting kids money that deserve it, but there's a negative trickle down effect and without any regulations it has made teenagers ripe for exploitation.
- Big 10 and other college expansion is one big game of telephone. A few people know and those people certainly aren't telling anyone. USC and UCLA both didn't even know the other was applying to the Big 10 until a few weeks ago. So this idea that people have intimate knowledge of the landscape is whimsical. That being said there are people who know a few things about a few programs. Just be leery of someone who claims to know what the Big10 is thinking.
I'm happy to do my best to answer any questions throughout the day today. Feel free to leave them below and I will get to them when I have some breaks.
Thanks for the explanations! Really appreciate it!
Having thought about everything you said, if that is Harbaugh's mindset than I completely understand where he's coming from. It makes sense, there's definitely a sense of nobility to it, but is there still the concern of not even being in the conversation for the guys who will help you beat OSU, get you back to the CFP, etc. While I don't like applying blanket statements, I have to believe many of the top recruits in the country are now looking to see "who is going to offer me the most money?" I can't say I blame them, either. I know the 18 year old version of myself would be salivating at all those dollar signs as well.
I know we're dealing with a lot of hypotheticals here, but it does seem like Harbaugh is taking a gamble here. Maybe a justified gamble, but a gamble nonetheless. Shutting your program off from a lot of guys who are looking for $$ but could be the guys who help keep you over that OSU hump, get you back to the CFP, and instead taking your chances on the guys who will commit without the bags of money (oftentimes the lower-rated guys who can't command that kind of leverage) and hope they develop and perform well enough on the field to where eventually top recruits will sit there and say "Michigan is winning enough and sending enough guys to the NFL to where I'll take my chances with them anyway."
But I suppose the alternative is also a gamble as well. Let's go ahead and fire the money cannon, but hey, now this kid is coming in and making more a year than all my position coaches and coordinators. Now do I have to wonder about a jealousy issue in the QB room, a culture problem if that starts spilling over.
Just wonder what's going to happen if this is the approach he continues to take, but the losses start piling up and a lot of 8-4 seasons start heading Harbaugh's way.
So I don't want people to think he's noble or doing this sanctimoniously, because I don't believe he is. I think he's doing this because it's what he believes in-- competition. The man is wired different than almost anyone you've ever met. Ask some former guys what it feels like to be ranked on a big board and to be constantly judged on how well you compete. So I don't think it's in his ethos to say hey come to Michigan, here's $5mm!
Now with that being said, the public and media love to crap on Michigan fans because they think we're all high and mighty and pompous, which we definitely are. But this hasn't changed anything for us, we weren't paying kids before to come here (again not in the state sanctioned way) and we're not going to start now. What we can do is to make sure that you will be paid a lot of money by tying yourself to the Michigan brand. So I doubt Harbaugh sees this as a risk, because nothing's changed. But you're right this is all fine and dandy when you're winning, but much harder to pull off when you're losing.
Totally get all this, but I think the issue is that for a lot of people it's really hard to give up some guaranteed money up front with no guarantee for money later. It's sort of a "homo economicus" v. behavioral economics thing for me. Sure, if you ball out you can make a lot of money, but if you want/need money now I can see that being a factor that could tip you one way or another.
I agree with an above poster about having a relatively moderate base salary and then the potential for good earnings on top of that, as opposed to totally earning every cent you get.
So what everyone here is describing is group licensing, which Michigan just announced a deal with the leading group in the NCAA. It's a gamechanger that I haven't really seen mentioned anywhere.
It will essentially pool a bunch of money so that everyone gets some. Obviously have no idea on the dollar figures yet, but the potential here is immense. Brandr Group essentially acts as a third party and will set up licensing deals-- think trading cards, bobbleheads, EA Sports Video Game, and then handle the distribution of that money. Methinks that Michigan can smoke everyone else besides maybe ND and OSU on areas like this with the power of our brand.
Cade & JJ last year are a great example. Cade was unproven coming in as was JJ. Would it have hurt to have JJ making $5M and Cade to have been making $2M to start the season? They both helped the team. By the end of the season, hopefully Cade would have been earning more than $5M based on his performance. Regarding the LT (and whole O-Line), Ryan Hayes is a multi-year player at LT. In Harbaugh's world, wouldn't he already be earning good NIL money? He's already getting his, I would think he would be happy adding JJ to the QB mix to help the team be more competitive, even if it did cost some donor $5M.
Would it have hurt to have JJ making $5M and Cade to have been making $2M to start the season?
With JJ as the backup? Yes, I think so. That's a pretty huge imbalance.
By the end of the season, hopefully Cade would have been earning more than $5M based on his performance.
I think that's an unrealistic view of how fast things actually go. In this hypothetical, after game X (Wisconsin? OSU?), Cade and his people -- during the height of the season -- start negotiating new deals worth $3M (and presumably he also starts fulfilling obligations included in that deal)?
Every time I see a pro athlete in a commercial during their game, I think "maybe they should be focusing on their craft" before I remember that they filmed said ad 8 months ago. I cannot imagine college athletes fulfilling a lot of NIL obligations during the season. So I don't think there's any way guys are getting huge "raises" mid-season.
Maybe what we're talking about is performance bonuses after the season - not tied to NIL at all, just using that as the vehicle to get $ to those who have earned it.
Finally, in your hypothetical, would it hurt to have another 5* QB coming in next year making, say $6M? I'd say 'yes' again.
It seems inevitable that after the smoke clears there will be two superconferences with 20-24 teams each, and everybody else will be scrambling to find remaining chairs to sit in.
I predict that within a decade or so after that, programs in both superconferences will start grumbling about their unique institutional conditions and needs being ignored, and the disgruntled will start leaving to form their own more regionally-based smaller conferences. I wouldn't be surprised if Texas is among the first to bolt, and starts a new conference called the Southwestern Conference, with Arkansas, Baylor, TCU, Houston, Rice, SMU, and Texas Tech.
What happens, you know if money doesn't just keep going up and up and up? What if you build something so big and so unwieldy that people find it unpalatable? I don't understand this obsession with getting bigger conferences, but I may just be an old fuddy duddy who likes it the way it was.
I think you may be right-- the money looks good right now, but how is UCLA going to feel when they're the 12th fiddle in a league and are making trips to Piscataway and Happy Valley in November?
but I may just be an old fuddy duddy who likes it the way it was.
That's me. I think most of the conference switches and expansions have been ill-conceived, and USC/UCLA to the BIG is the dumbest yet.
how is UCLA going to feel when they're the 12th fiddle in a league and are making trips to Piscataway and Happy Valley in November?
I have yet to see any comments from Chip Kelly or Lincoln Riley.
That seem plausible because what goes around, come around. Things could revert back to what they were a decade ago but not in the same shape but similar.
Wasn't there a SW Conference in football? I could look it up.
The only hiccup would be the TV mega-contracts and even that house of cards will eventually fall. It's already amazing to see how many college football game are on TV at this time. Some west coast teams play at 10 PM (local time) so that there can be a post midnight game on the east coast to watch.
Or it'll go the other way. The new conferences will swell to a combined 64 teams and initiate a football version of March Madness. The reason I lean towards this outcome is because it would generate the most eyeballs and television revenue.
This is what will happen, but it will be more like 32 or 48 of the top teams. Cynically, more than that are too many mouths to feed that don't add economic value.
I thought it would come in the form of 4 super-conferences, but it may now come on the form of 2, perhaps 3, conferences.
It was the SEC's intent for it to just be 1 super-conference - them - that ran the entire big-time college football show, but the Big Ten and the non-ABC/ESPN networks have blunted that.
Nebraska!!! Please take Nebraska back!
What will I have for lunch?
I suggest something from your cooler.
Oh shit.
You’ll get nothing and like it!!
Are there any rules in these NIL deals that prevent the player from the transfer portal?
If I was a school and/or booster I wouldn’t be willing to give these kids a ton of money through an NIL deal to bolt to a different school, especially if some other school and/or booster is willing to give them another NIL deal (couldn’t blame the player for doing it if possible).
Maybe this has already been discussed and I just haven’t seen it yet. If so, let me know or ignore.
Yep, just answered it above but I'll add. There's nothing specific about transferring. They do that for a reason, but there are clauses that make it very unpleasant to transfer. Your rights would still stay with the collective, you have to pay a penalty, etc.
I think I could actually stop worrying and learn to love NIL. Face it: the college sports landscape of yore is long gone -- very solidly yore. Pro sports, meanwhile, are totally corporate featuring interchangeable venues, nationalized fanbases, mostly inaccessible personnel. Gone are the days when pro sports teams reflected the cities in which they were located, and allegiances to a team were based on the mutual identification with key common institutions and traditions between fan, players, and team management. (Think European soccer, perhaps, at least below the level of the Super League candidates).
My thesis: college sports of the near future is on the way to recreating some of the lost magic of pro sports of the past.
Thanks for doing this!
To your knowledge, is it true we apparently have several commits lined up for the end of the month BBQ? I read that on here, and it does seem like we usually pick up a handful the BBQ weekend so I'm hoping the same happens.
Also, do you have any input on QB recruiting? It really seems like Dante Moore or bust for 2023, and if we don't land him we will probably take some lower level guy(Dan villari type) just to get a QB recruit. As for 2024 seems like Jadyn Davis is the big fish, but I doubt we are officially out for Carr since a verbal commitment means nothing.
Hey so not that dialed in on immediate day-to-day recruiting. It changes too much for me to keep up with it. I will say the Carr thing is much ado about nothing. I don't see 5-stars with him at all. He's old for his grade and playing against very average competition. I love what his grandad did for the University but I don't see it honestly. Think fans should just let a kid go to ND and get away from the Carr legacy.
If I'm Michigan, I am taking the kid committed to Purdue or the kid committed to Baylor. Think those two guys are big timers. I don't want any part of the Tik Tok QB's.
Maybe someone can find me the link, but the 5 star OL, Kadyn Proctor, who just committed to Iowa, just had a really good interview that I think people should watch. He was saying about how he turned down million dollar NIL offers, but was so nonchalant about it because he knew that he was going to make his money by being the best football player. I'd bet you a dollar that kid plays for a long time in the NFL, and I bet you he's the next great Iowa OL based on absolutely nothing more than his attitude and dedication (probably helps he's a mountain of a man as well).
This NIL isn't a zero-sum game. If you don't take a boatload of upfront cash it doesn't mean you're not going to get paid. I do think the Tik Tok generation is all about instant fame and getting that bag, but picking a school for money now and not looking at the rest of your life is foolish. You can have both if you are actually a good football player.
I have a question about the future of "the rules." You and a lot of people say the current system is unsustainable. OK, what sort of rules/limitations would be enforceable? Who would do the enforcing? How? I think we all agree that the NCAA is out of that business. What might a different system look like?
The conferences. You saw the omerta get broken pretty quickly in the SEC when coaches started throwing out barbs at each other when they felt like teams were violating rules. That process of change has already started. But that won't formally happen until they split off into their own autonomous group. I would imagine that happens in the next 12 - 24 months.
I think as soon as that happens each conference will have their own set of rules. I think coaching limits go away, I think the recruiting calendar gets completely re-organized. I think the transfer period will be limited to only a few small windows. And in a lot of ways this will be a bit of coopetition with the few remaining conferences.
The other shoe to drop will probably be some type of federal legislation. I'm not going down explaining this route, because there are about 10 million better things for them to be doing and I don't do politics. But that rule when it's enacted will probably shut the door to pay for play and standardize a lot of the rules. Who knows though? They could totally mess it up and make it even worse.
A lot of great NIL talk in here, but I guess I'm more interested in if we anticipate any changes on how we handle inbound transfers (e.g. admissions, transferable credits, etc.)? And should we be making any changes, or are we doing it 'right' already?
Where are Washington, Oregon, and Utah likely to go?
I’ve heard a lot of people saying it doesn’t make sense to bring in Washington or Oregon or others. It’d probably be similar for the SEC. If Oregon or similar could show they could bring 70MM to the conference and everyone else is getting 100MM on average, would it make sense for them to have their agreement be for 70% of the rest of the members’ share? Just so they aren’t in a mid American conference? Then maybe a booster could supplement the rest. If they dropped to whatever the level below the B1G and SEC will be, it seems they would probably die a slow death since people would slowly stop caring about them outside of Oregon.