Most people are thinking about the conf expansion in the wrong way
I know, do we really need yet another thread on expansion? Probably not. But I just want to have a different kind of discussion.
Most of the discussions have been starting from the B1G operational point of view and protecting B1G. But I think we really should be looking at it from the other way; College Football Championships and Playoffs.
I don't think it is a coincidence that Texas/OU move came soon after talks of playoffs expanding. If the college football playoff expands to 10, 12 or 14, adding such heavyweights to already a top heavy conference will give them enormous leverage to make sure that at least half of those playoff spots are basically reserved for SEC teams. Which will allow them to get better recruits and TV money and ensure their dominance for the forseeable future. I think this is the real danger of the SEC expansion. And I don't think even adding USC to this equation changes this.
But rest of us don't have to play this game. We can jujitsu the hell out of this and make this into a ESPN vs FOX battle.
In this scenario, there is no need for expansion (although there is no need to forbid it either). We just get every conference other than SEC to sign joint operational agreement and get them to join FOX Sports. This would include B1G, PAC12, left over BIG12 with some additions (I will get to ACC later). Once we are joined at the hip, we will exit the current CFB and we will host our own playoffs. Our champion can then play SEC champion in the national title game.
This will ensure that all of us outside the SEC will have maximum playoff exposure and FOX should make enough money to pay the schools very very well.
To me, this is the best way to preserve the current rivalries and deal with time zone issues while making the most money. It really is a win win.
I know, I know, this sounds all well and good, but ESPN just signed a 20 year deal with ACC. Doesn't that still tilt the deck for ACC?
While this is true, there are several ways to break this.
First, SEC decides to poach Clemson, FSU, Miami, etc, and all bets are off and ACC will crumble. This is actually the most preferred scenario for us as it will bring us all big chunk of east coast to our alliance. It will be everyone against SEC/ESPN at this point.
Second, even if ESPN is wise enough not to let above happen, we might be able to leverage ND.
We can offer ND to keep their NBC contract and still join our playoffs. Sure, SEC can offer the same, but if you are ND, which playoffs would you rather join? One where you just have to avoid OSU or one where you are going to get headbanged by LSU, Alabama, etc.? And if ND joins our alliance, that playoff is going to draw pretty big numbers in east coast.
I think we need to stop thinking small. Conferences are not the issue here. The foe we have to fight is the fully operational death star of ESPN/ACC. There are still enough rebel alliance to make the fight an interesting one, but only way to do that is divorce from CFB and go on our "own" with everyone who hate SEC, which is pretty much rest of the country.
"Once we are joined at the hip, we will exit the current CFB and we will host our own playoffs. Our champion can then play SEC champion in the national title game."
While I don't think there's any chance your overall scenario will happen, I confess I like your idea of the Fox-BIG-PAC-Big12 league champion playing the ESPN/SEC-etc champion at the end of the year.
I bet the TV ratings would be through the roof, with interest rivaling that of the original pre-merger Super Bowls featuring the NFL champion vs the AFL champion.
I like this idea much better than expanding the BIG to some unwieldy number of teams poached from the PAC 12 and the Big 12.
I don't think there is any chance of forming a 20 or bigger B1G either, because at that point, you are just rebranding existing conferences under B1G and that is just logistically too cumbersome. It is just better to keep the conferences as is and just form alliances.
But whatever we do, what we cannot allow is expansion of the playoffs as is. That will eventually lead to B1G as a second class citizen.
Our best bet is to grab USC and try to leverage that - perhaps by threatening a scheduling moratorium - to pull ND into the conference.
Now would USC go along with that? Prolly not. But losing the rivalry game with them might just be the only thing that would convince ND to give up their independence.
And, realistically, that's the only reasonable expansion that doesn't bring in a bunch of dead weight and at least matches the sec expansion - IMO.
I just don't get the whole superconference idea. At 20-24 teams and assuming divisions what the heck is the difference between a superconference and two conferences that make some sort of deal on regular occ games?
The next best thing would be to just make a deal with the pac 12 that included some ooc guarantees and culminated in the rose bowl. Which would have it's own value - Alabama folk are *still* bitter about being shut out of the rose way back when so I know it would at least get them at least a little pissy.
Then just tell everyone else to gth - there are plenty of people across the country who *hate* all these expansions and going old school would have it's own draw.
Cheers.
the super conference idea means that all the schools together are negotiating tv rights
So, how is the SEC Champion vs. the Everyone Else Champion any different from half of the playoff spots going to the SEC? The only difference I can see is that your proposal will guarantee the SEC will get a team in the Championship Game every year.
I logged into say what you said. Conceding a spot in the championship to the SEC is weak. I can't wait for global warming to ravage the South like William Tecumseh Sherman on an ornery day. Population moves back up North for some fresh water, dental care and science and we're back on top. I'm bald and I'm using two cans of hair spray a day just to spite the SEC. /s
One additional nice thing about this is we can screw SEC is other ways like baseball. They can keep their winter league. Rest of us can play baseball when it is meant to be played, in the summer. Their champion can play our champion when our season is over.
Hell, if we REALLY wanted to be mean, we can start our own basketball tournament and get rid of March Madness. This will eventually destroy Kentucky as if you are the top prospect are you going to want to play everyone minus SEC tourney or SEC tourney only?
I doubt this would ever happen but I'm pretty intrigued by the idea.
I don't have the slightest clue regarding the details of how this might play itself out, but your basic assumption is on point.
The SEC and ESPN are one side of the equation, creating a recruiting and revenue behemoth. For competitive balance, you need Fox, the rest of the P5/G5, AND ND/NBC to join forces on the other side. I hope it happens.
You can add CBS to that equation as well. I would think CBS has a better way in with our alliance than ESPN.
I agree, I think that's the only way to keep things competitive
Great points. It would not be unprecedented. Up until 1997 there was something similar called the College Football Association that had 63 member schools including most of the conferences (SEC, Big 8, ACC, old SWC) and ND and most of the independents. Guess who were not part of it? That’s right the BIG and the PAC. Your plan would be like a repeat of the CFA and the later Bowl Alliance, only this time the BIG and PAC would be part of the consortium and the SEC would be the exceptional holdout. Everything old is new again.
(25% SEC) = 3 SEC teams
12 teams
6 top raked conference champions
No more than 3 from any conference
(5 Wild cards)... assuming all 3 SEC teams make it
The PAC, B1G, Big XIII*, ACC & Notre Dame should ALL insist up this. Grow some balls.
ESPN already has the SEC network, just picked up the rights to the other the SEC games AND the championship. It is in ESPN's best interest to keep the interest nationally and the best way to do that is ensure some type of parity in the post season, while still being fair to the SEC... instead of the SAME teams every year or a single conference dominating it.
or
(33% SEC) = 4 SEC teams
12 Teams
5 top ranked conference champions
No more than 4 from any on conference
(4 Wild card cards)... assuming all 4 SEC teams get in
* Allow the Big XII a conference delegate every year thus stabilizing that conference, but also make any additional money from Texas/OU's buy out plus media rights if they leave before 2015. Maybe add: Cincinnatti, UCF, maybe Houston/SMU.
B1G and PA-C do a 2/3 non-conference home and home schedule... or a 1/3 with both PAC and ACC
The chance of SEC agreeing to that is zero.
Do they have the votes to say no?!
If so then rest can have their own championship (FOX?) and then two can compete.
The semifinal and championship games thus far in the CFP have been non-competitive blowouts.
What makes anyone think increasing the playoff to 12 teams will make games more competitive?
Parity, it allows the teams just one step below OSU, Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama a chance to play in a meaningful bowl game... thus increasing the ability of the university ability to recruit, increase their athlete's ability to make money on their likeness... etc
Teams like: Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Washington etc. Essentially the #2-4 team in the PAC, B1G and ACC have a reachable chance to get in on a semi-regular basis.... So that power does not become too concentrated in one school (ie. Monopoloy) in each conference and the SEC overall, that increased parity over time should increase the odds of competitive games. Spreads out the Blue Chips more. Pay attention to the process and not the results and the results will come.
I love threads that start out basically saying the OP is smarter than most people
Username sorta checks out.
Another option is to be one of the 20 teams in the new super SEC.
FOX has done enough damage to our country. Now they're going to contribute to the ruination of college football. Great.
Take the politics crap out of here.
I didn't say a thing about politics, but since you mention it......
FOX is destroying the country with its treatment of the pandemic, which is a matter of public health for most sane individuals. THEY politicize everything.
It's incumbent on all of us to understand that and fight back.
To be fair to Fox Sports, their take on ruining college football is to do it with excessive advertisements, which is almost worse than ESPN just ruining it with a bunch of blank checks being tossed around. I understand that they need to make money in this fashion, but for the 1,657th time this game, I am not going to switch to GEICO and I really am not interested in a Mustang Mach E or whatever. I would like to see another 30 seconds of game inaction, like the punter blowing his nose into his towel from the skycam's point of view, before we take another break, thank you.
Anything the Big Ten does needs to focus on two things. Generating NIL for the players and getting the players exposure to improve their draft stock.
While it is always about the money, I think people solely looking at conference expansion are focused on the wrong money and who gets it. The best players will want to earn as much through NIL as possible and get the highest draft position as possible.
The conference with the most national exposure will be who calls the shots. That is why the SEC would add Texas and Oklahoma. They have more marquee conference games now while still getting easy wins against the likes of Vandy, Kentucky, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina, the Mississippi schools. They will also have their easy slate of non-conference games because they need the inflated records to look good for the playoffs.
My assumption is the Big Ten will do something dumb and create an alliance with the PAC-12 creating a worst of both worlds. A harder overall schedule, no better conference games, and not significantly changing exposure for the kids to increase NIL earnings or draft exposure.
What about... a 1/3 of nonconference game be between the PAC-B1G and the other two you'd be able to adjust difficulty of opponent accordingly. Still supports the lesser conference too. Or perhaps a 1/3 of the B1G west with the PAC (travel distance) and the B1G east do one from the ACC (travel distance)
You could also dispense the pot the way they do the in the NCAA men's basketball tournament. You get a point for each game you win and it's divided at the end... maybe more points the farther you advance... this would allow the SEC the make some serious coin if their teams advance far.
You could have the top half of the conference (over the last say 5 years) in one conference play the the bottom half of the other conference and vice versa...
Watch the B1G merge with the PAC to form a mega conference with divisions named "leaders" and "legends."
ESPN has the ACC and SEC locked up but I doubt they won't also want a part of possible shared rights deal with the B1G and/or Pac-12 who's contracts are up in 2023 and 2024.
The Big 12 is probably DOA but I would imagine that Fox Sports wants to stay involved in college sports as they own the majority of the B1G network. Does CBS now get more involved with B1G football now that they lost the SEC contract? Does NBC or other media network make a play?
We'll probably know sooner than later.
We don't even know who will have the TV rights to the expanded playoffs ------ I find it very doubtful, however, that FOX won't be a substantial player in those bidding process.
Until that piece of the puzzle is solved, it's kind of difficult so solve for the other pieces of the puzzle.
"Most people" who reference the ACC/ESPN media contract and declare that "there are several ways to break this" would list at least one of those "ways". You begin: "First, SEC decides to poach... " Then we arrive at: "Second, even if ESPN... " whereby you admit that the first "way" isn't really plausible. I'll help you out with some "ways" that might actually happen.
ESPN owns ALL of the media rights to ALL of the ACC content until 2036. ACC teams could leave the conference and join the SEC and ESPN would be fine with that because they own SEC content as well. The only dispute would be internally in the ACC. Litigation, to be sure. But in the end those renegade ACC schools would become well-paid members of the SEC. But the impetus for these moves must not be viewed, at least overtly, as SEC poaching.
If, however those teams chose to move from the ACC to The B1G, ESPN and the ACC, together, would set upon them in an ungodly way. The motives for this move may not be strong enough to justify the unavoidable legal war. But here are the motives: The impending B1G media auction will bring riches to Maryland and Rutgers beyond any hopes that Clemson, UNC, or Virginia can dare to dream. The discrepancy will be somewhere in the low gazillions. Any schools who are willing to fight their way out of the ACC/ESPN harem would need to be extremely resentful and mistrustful of ESPN, and harbor a longing for a place in a more academic oriented conference. Who fits that bill? Who has the courage to start that fight?
The most peaceful path is for the ACC to ask ESPN to void the GoR in exchange for safe passage for selected schools to the SEC and for big, fat financial considerations for the weaklings who remain. Maybe that means just leaving the media payout at the current level for the duration of the original contract. But, again, this idea has to come from the conference, not from ESPN.
There might be other "ways" but "SEC decides to poach" isn't one of them.
I got to thinking earlier, this moving conferences thing really started about 9 years ago, and have any of the programs that left where they came from been better for it? I dont think a single one has won a conference title in their new conference. Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Missouri, and I know damn well none of the Big East schools have won anything.
At what point does the "money" gained from going to a new conference even matter when no one's gonna care to watch because A. There's no tradition anymore and B. The program sucks
Well, the four schools you named have at least APPEARED in a Conference Championship Game in their new conference, which is better than we can say for certain teams who have stayed...
Keith Jackson doesn’t mind repetitive threads.
I don't fight or compete anymore, but I still had to say you spelled jiu jitsu wrong
Looks like espn doesn’t care about the big, so have to something. Can’t just sit around and wait to be fed to the pigs. Im for an aau conference, you can dream.
At this point it is very easy to squash the NCAA and break away once and for all:
1) 3 major conferences: SEC, whatever the B1G/PAC decide, and another conference TBD. Gets us to ~60-65 teams.
2) Each of these conferences has their own major network deal. CBS-ESPN-FOX?
3) Tell the NCAA to GFY, we're out, period. The big schools are going to do things their way, from here on out.
At this point, the party's over for the NCAA.
I don't think it is a coincidence that Texas/OU move came soon after talks of playoffs expanding. If the college football playoff expands to 10, 12 or 14, adding such heavyweights to already a top heavy conference will give them enormous leverage to make sure that at least half of those playoff spots are basically reserved for SEC teams.
What makes you believe that Oklahoma and Texas is going to make sure that the SEC has 6 playoff spots? First up is that the SEC is going to have to play at least 9 conference games a season now. That means one less cream puff win and for some teams an extra loss on the season. If anything, Oklahoma's schedule just became a lot more difficult with the move out from the Big 12.
So do Alabama and Auburn move to the SEC East now and Oklahoma and Texas in the West? That means that Bama would have a steady dose of Florida, Georgia and Auburn every year.
It is going to be just like ncaa baseball where half or more of the teams are from the sec/espn conference
The SEC/ESPN are not done here. They will look to add more schools like Clemson, FSU, etc. They are looking to reach critical mass and eventually go their own way on college sports.
The Big Ten can not stand on the sidelines or it will eventually get boxed out into permanent "Group of 5" status.
If getting Fox/CBS/NBC more deeply involved is an effective to counter SEC/ESPN, then we need to look at it in terms of Big Ten expansion, both east and west.
August 1st, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
M-Dog, calm yourself. The SEC can add Clemson, Florida State, and "The U", for all we care. That doesn't hurt The B1G, beyond the fact that those schools are then not available to us. Remember that adding programs to your conference isn't free. Once they're in, you have to pay them a full share of media money. Will Clemson/FL ST enrich the conference enough to justify the move? Maybe, but it is up to the media companies who buy the content. In truth, if the SEC adds a school, the move has likely been pre-approved by their media overlords at ESPN.
The B1G occupies a geographical footprint that is impossible to ignore if you are a media company selling ads to national advertisers. ESPN absolutely MUST have some amount of B1G content in their national ad package. The B1G, under Jim Delany, understood that and played appropriate hardball vs ESPN and Fox.
Texas, in particular, and Oklahoma improved the value of the SEC ad footprint. But it, in no way, diminished the value of the B1G footprint. The B1G need not rush in to anything. Deliberate consideration of expansion with PAC schools or eventually with ACC schools is something they have been kicking about for at least three decades. They know the territory and they are looking for the right deal. Feel better?
i say do away will ALL conferences. We just don't need them.
think about this: NO CONFERENCES WHATSOEVER! Would that be so bad?
Major college football as the country has known it is dead, we are watching the the body getting shocked repeatedly right now. Let it die. What is next may be a good product or it may suck. Take up some Autumn hobbies and in 4-5 years come back and see if its worth watching. Thats my plan. admittedly I'll continue to read articles and watch the occasional duscussion of the evolution of the sport, but the product of yesterday is dead. The current product isnt worth watching and has not been for a while...its like watching pro wrestling...doesnt come off as a real sport with real competition right now. Feels scripted.
in 4-5 years (as it is planned currently) Texas and Oklahoma will have just started playing games as an SEC team. You may want to extend your absence from the "sport" a bit longer if you're wanting to wait out all the shifting of conferences and changes to the post season.
August 1st, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
Why is all the talk about USC. Playing games in LA is a huge problem if you are Maryland or Penn State. Why not make runs at Virginia,Duke,NC and maybe Clemson or ND
All great academic schools that fit the profile of the conference. Heck in BBall the conference champ should get an automatic bid to the final four. Would lock up a buge piece of geography an TV sets all year long
August 1st, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
It's because of the expiration of media right for the PAC is like 2024-25, the ACC is 2036. Otherwise, we would mostly agree with you.
August 1st, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
It's because of the expiration of media right for the PAC is like 2024-25, the ACC is 2036. Otherwise, we would mostly agree with you.
August 1st, 2021 at 11:13 AM ^
Maybe Georgia Tech for market and recruiting, plus being AAU is top of my list. FSU too even if they are not AAU, access to Florida recruiting and recent success allow us to overlook that in this case.