Michigan Football has 4th Best Odds to Win National Championship per FanDuel
https://www.on3.com/news/teams-with-best-odds-to-win-college-football-playoff-national-championship-revealed/
Top National Championship Odds...
+220 – Georgia
+500 – Alabama
+700 – Ohio State
+1000 – Michigan
+1600 – USC
Not sure how many times we'll have to beat Ohio State to move ahead of them. Keep making us the underdog. It's been working well so far!!
"If every future prediction hinges on the last game only, then it makes sense."
Before I go further, I want to make it clear that I am NOT contesting that Michigan is or will be highly-regarded going into next season—we obviously should be. We're a legit contender. What I am specifically responding to is the complaint that we're not regarded higher than OSU.
I've been closely following college football in general and Michigan football in particular for over 50 years. The connection between how a particular team finishes its season—in most cases meaning how they do in bowl games—and how they're regarded going into the following season has been clear and entirely predictable, especially if the team in question has not already established a record of post-season success. If program #1 has recently won a national championship and continues to excel in subsequent seasons, it will frequently be given the benefit of the doubt in pre-season rankings over program #2 that consistently loses its bowl game, even if program #1 has lost its regular season game to #2.
I'm not saying this kind of valuation based on immediately preceding results is infallible—it certainly isn't—but it's commonplace.
Just as one example, in 1971 Michigan went 11-0 during the regular season, won the conference, and went into the Rose Bowl ranked #4 as a prohibitive favorite against #16 Stanford. Alas, Michigan stunk up the joint in an ugly 13-12 loss.
If Michigan had won that game to finish 12-0 as the only undefeated team besides Nebraska, we would have finished the season ranked no worse than #3 and very possibly #2, and it's extremely likely we would have been ranked within the top five to begin the 1972 season.
Instead, we began the season outside the top ten at #11.
That ugly Rose Bowl loss was the second of the 29 bowl losses we've suffered since Schembechler arrived, and no other major program has as many losses. Unfortunately, this has continued under Harbaugh since he arrived 2015.
In the same time frame beginning in 2015, OSU (which won the NC the year before Harbaugh arrived) has had multiple playoff appearances, including the NC game after the 2020 season. OSU's previous record of success—particularly its NC after the 2014 season—has, in the minds of the oddsmakers, given it an advantage in the pre-season estimation of who has the best chance to win the NC because the oddsmakers don't have as much faith that Michigan can win a bowl game as they do OSU.
IF in 2023 we beat OSU, go to the playoffs, and at least win one game, this dynamic between Michigan and OSU will begin to change.
I like your deep reply. I actually value UM as the underdog, and think it's always the best place to be. Mark Dantonio made an entire career out of it. Having said that, I don't think, even if we beat OSU this year and win a college CFP semifinal, that it will halt the hype-train for OSU. People are obsessed with recruiting rankings and individual stardom, as well as the projection of talent to the NFL. OSU will continue to outpace us in all such regards, because the best player on Harbaugh's Michigan teams will always be "the team" itself. The reason Harbaugh is a transcendent coach is because his teams play beyond the sum of their parts. OSU will blow out people and look the unstoppable juggernaut until Thanksgiving weekend every year. Rinse and repeat. I'm very, very happy to keep living the last two years again and again.
I think a real fact that many Michigan fans are missing is that Bama, Georgia, and OSU have all won titles in the last ten years, while our coach hasn't won a bowl game since the 2015 season. There is for sure a trend that Michigan is struggling in bowl games for whatever reason. This has happened when we are the underdog and the favorite.
Bingo. The bowl game performances have been ... not great Bob. It's time to get over the hump and win a CFP semifinal at minimum.
It's not Bob's fault!
---(signed) Bob
The college football world - "Bowl games dont matter!"
Also the college football world - "Harbaugh stinks in bowl games? BOWL GAMES MATTER!"
Hey at least he has hurdled the preseason coaching ranking articles where he is 20 spots behind Ferentz, Fitzpatrick, and Franklin. Although I knew as soon as those were wrote post covid season they were shit articles.
Bowl prep is abyssmal under Harbaugh and the Harbaugh staff. That's pretty clear at this point. Harbaugh has made excellent strides in many aspects of his coaching, and now he needs to take this leap as well. I hope he can, because this year presents a huge opportunity to surpass the outcomes of the last two years.
That said, we were by no means even close to fully healthy against TCU, and that played a huge role. If TCU's QB would not have played, how much would that have changed the game?
Their RB1 missed much of that game too - just saying
I can’t believe all the “experts” who continue to suck OSU’s dick. Guess we’ll just have to whip that ass again to continue their education.