Michigan is currently favored in EVERY game on their schedule
At the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas on their Game of the Year board. The Westgate is the #1 sports book in the United States. They takes the biggest bets, highest limits so these numbers are very legit.
Michigan -1.5 over Wisconsin
Michigan -10.5 over Iowa
Michigan -6 over Notre Dame
Michigan -11 over Michigan State
Michigan -2 over Ohio State
*-I have no idea why the game at Penn State is not on their board but messing around with the spreads against common opponents and adjusting for home field it looks like they would have Michigan around -4 or -5 at Penn State.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:49 PM ^
Can't wait until the bloggers start throwing the S&P+ stats and predictions at us.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:20 PM ^
"Well, S&P says we're really a top five team".
September 10th, 2019 at 9:12 PM ^
Right. Why trust a statistical model developed over a decade and has proven to be ~53% ATS (which is excellent and can make a fortune), when I can listen to the eyeball opinion of a data center manager, soccer dad like you?
September 11th, 2019 at 7:46 AM ^
when I can listen to the eyeball opinion of a data center manager, soccer dad like you?
This is from the paragon of civility calling people “internet tough guys”
Micro penis...errr sorry, “internet tough guy” confirmed
September 10th, 2019 at 4:25 PM ^
The creator of S&P+ has a table on the front page of this blog highlighting that the offense was pretty not great against Army. Not exactly sure what you're getting at beyond using the words "blogger" and "stats" as pejoratives.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
BS
Won't be favored at Wisc.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:56 PM ^
That's surprising given what we've seen from the offense so far.
September 10th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
Well they shouldn't be. Going 3-2 in those games is more realistic. 4-1 should lead to the third 12 win* season in program history!
September 10th, 2019 at 1:57 PM ^
Dog gone it I never want to bet against my team but this could actually be a lucrative opportunity.
Makes me sad, but $ is $
September 10th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
If you go by the ESPN win probability thing they have, we are
34 pct Wisconsin
28 pct Penn St
41 pct ND
45 pct OSU
Not saying I believe those numbers but they have 4 games we aren’t “expected” to win.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:18 PM ^
Sounds right based on what we've seen
September 10th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
They also have Michigan just 51% to beat Maryland on the road.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:03 PM ^
We might win a couple of these games, but no way are we covering in more than two.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
I would bet Wisconsin. We have not won there since 2001. Easy money
September 10th, 2019 at 9:09 PM ^
2001 - wasn't that the game Wisconsin fumbled a punt deep in their own territory late in the game, UM recovered and ended up kicking the winning field goal?
September 10th, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
I thought we were oh and two with Harbaugh hot-seatin' it.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
What are the odds that the Pitbull banner survives the entire season?
September 10th, 2019 at 11:16 PM ^
If we lose to Wiscy then take it down and burn the fucker.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:23 PM ^
September 10th, 2019 at 2:26 PM ^
Yea I just don't get this either. I gamble a lot, and I am not perfect by any means with my picks, but If I was not a Michigan Fan I would bet the house on the money line Wisconsin. I would actually bet all the other way against Michigan until they show something. I watched the LSU Texas Game and a little bit of the Clemson A &M Game this past Saturday, and just thought my gosh these teams are so much bigger/faster/better then where we are at right now. It's not just what is going on the past two weeks, but look at harbaugh's tenure away against solid opponents. Seriously what was his only nice win Last year at Michigan state? Maybe getting away from the big house will help but I'm pretty sure that if we continue to turn the ball over at this rate it does not matter who they are playing. They will not be able to turn the ball over against Wisconsin because they are going to ground and pound all day and eat clock. And I believe Wisconsin's a bit better then Army. I will probably talk myself into a million reasons before this Wisconsin game to bet Michigan and the under. "Its just growing pains, It was just playing against army its not easy, Shea was playing hurt and looked the worst I have ever seen him, but he was handicapped by play calling, we had a TD that was not called right from our D, etcc.." that is what will most likely happen, but I should not put any money on this team but sure do hope they get things figured out quickly.
September 10th, 2019 at 11:04 PM ^
Turnovers have been by far the number one thing that has hurt Michigan this season. If the coaches follow through with their promises to clean that up then I can understand Vegas' lines. Not sure if I would bet the house on the Wiscy moneyline because I wouldn't want to be pissed at Harbaugh for the rest of my life.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:34 PM ^
That is hysterical. As things stand right now, I don't think UM is capable of beating Wisconsin, Ohio State, and maybe Notre Dame. Thankfully, two of those three are at the Big House, but that usually doesn't mean shit when a good team is coming to town.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:35 PM ^
What worries me now is that SP+ and FPI both give Michigan roughly a 30% chance of beating Wisconsin in Madison. This probability has shifted dramatically since the start of season. Though I don’t know too much about the viability of these metrics through only two weeks, with one of the matchups against a very atypical opponent in Army.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:49 PM ^
What you saw on the field should worry you more if you watched the games.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:56 PM ^
We played MTSU and Army, two bowl teams from last year. Wisconsin played USF (currently on an 8-game losing streak) and CMU (1-11 in 2018). Analytics should favor Wisconsin going into this game. Why Jonathan Taylor was scoring touchdowns to go up 54-0 is a mystery. But I'm not worried about Wisconsin just because of the numbers they've run up.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
This really cannot be emphasized enough...there is a monumental difference between playing a winning team - regardless of what level they are good at - versus playing a losing team. Losing teams find ways to lose. Teams that are used to winning make plays and actually believe they can succeed, no matter the opponent. Maybe MTSU didn't think they could actually win, but they sure thought they could give us a run for our money and make a statement. And Army didn't looked scared to play Michigan, why would they? They took a Heisman-led CFP-level team to OT last year and have won every game ever since.
September 10th, 2019 at 8:03 PM ^
This worries me too. I took some solace in the fact that Connelly has repeatedly said his model is broken by Army. I think both models have a difficult time valuing Army (FPI has them #73, not sure where SP+ is published anymore), so the math is saying Michigan went to OT with a crappy team. Don't think that's true.
However I did look at the week by week FPI last year, hoping to see a big drop for Oklahoma after their OT win. But there wasn't one. That's because the models are built on efficiency. Oklahoma was efficient vs Army, Michigan was not. The offense definitely needs to be fixed.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
I've seen this exact same post the last 5 years.
September 10th, 2019 at 7:29 PM ^
Right. Like after the ND game. And... it would have been correct for 10 of the 11 remaining games, which is shockingly accurate. Even more so relative to posters here a year ago who were saying 7-5.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:42 PM ^
in football????
September 10th, 2019 at 2:44 PM ^
If anyone after having watching both teams play thinks UM is the favorite over OSU, then I'd ask you what you saw that lead you to believe that.
September 10th, 2019 at 7:33 PM ^
I think Vegas would say nah, we'd rather not tell you, but go ahead and take OSU and the points if you like.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^
These are home games. Road game @ PSU is judged to be 35% chance of winning.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:54 PM ^
Given Michigan's historical crappiness at covering spreads when it's a favorite, I'd take WI, Iowa, ND, PSU, MSU, and OSU. And MD and IU.
September 10th, 2019 at 2:55 PM ^
I think Michigan is one of the most enigmatic teams in all college football right now. It's really hard to judge how good our offense really is when we've fumbled so many times and turtled down because of them. And our defense has had only 1 meaningful game against a normal opposing offense.
So, I don't think I'd touch any Michigan betting right now, one way or the other.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:07 PM ^
I think Vegas is playing the gullible Michigan fan base. These odds should / will change once each game gets closer.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
If they were playing to the gullible Michigan fan base to make bets on Michigan, wouldn't it be the opposite? Wouldn't they want to start Wisconsin -3?
September 10th, 2019 at 5:04 PM ^
Gullible Michigan fan thinks Michigan is in the hunt for the CFP, with a Heisman Candidate QB. They assume they would beat everyone on that list because reasons and would take Michigan to win or cover.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:42 PM ^
Wisconsin will be favored over us by next week this time. Ohio state will be favored over us. PSU is a tossup. MSU, we will be 6 or 7 point favorites.
September 10th, 2019 at 3:47 PM ^
We ain't gon' beat Ohio.
September 10th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
We can't run the ball and we can't throw the ball. We are a one-dimensional team that can't do the one dimension worth a damn.
Meanwhile, we are asking the D to save the team again only this time, the team doesn't have NFL caliber talent all over the D line in the back 7.
This is a recipe for a disaster year.
- Michigan -1.5 over Wisconsin
- Wisconsin is going to roll this team. It's going to be Army again, but against a team that can actually score quickly. Leonard is a damn fine DC that will shut down this offense the same way Army's DC just did. I'd take Wisconsin.
- Michigan -10.5 over Iowa
- On the fence on this one, but I still lean Iowa as I don't foresee Harbaugh coaching a competent enough offense into beating a P5 school by double digits.
- Michigan -6 over Notre Dame
- ND all day and twice on Sunday. I would be shocked if Michigan gained 200 yards this game.
- Michigan -11 over Michigan State
- Dantonio simply get his guys jacked to play this game, especially when he can smell blood in the water. MSU wins going away.
- Michigan -2 over Ohio State
- There isn't a snowball's chance in hell UM wins this game. This is going to be the nail in the coffin for Jim. I predict UM loses by at least 28 and Jim quits for an NFL job the Monday after this game.
September 10th, 2019 at 4:37 PM ^
Vinny the Sparty! I look forward to you posting all of your betting slips on this site.
September 10th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^
Yup - I'm a sparty because you don't like hearing anything other than your echo chamber bullshit.
My god are you thin-skinned.
September 10th, 2019 at 7:19 PM ^
Let's see the betting slips Vinny. You are certain of yourself above, play it out.
Ps, "Jimmy" quitting for the NFL is an obvious Sparty tell
September 10th, 2019 at 7:26 PM ^
Why exactly do I need to show betting slips to have an opinion? Are you betting on the games and showing you slips?
My god are you a douche bag. How tiny is your penis anyways?
anytime anyone says anything you don’t like about Michigan IRL do you freak out this badly? I’m embarrassed for you.
September 10th, 2019 at 7:35 PM ^
We got a bona fide internet tonigh guy here
And I don't need to show betting slips because I think the lines are fine. If I was running around aggressively declaring "Michigan wins all day and twice on Sunday" (though of course I would never talk that way because I'm not a cartoon), you could ask for my slips.
September 11th, 2019 at 7:42 AM ^
The entire comment section in this post is people giving their opinions on the lines.
I gave mine.
Only my opinion triggered you. Not my fault you have such a inferiority complex and your manhood is tied up into Michigan football, that you had to demand I “show the betting slips.”
I feel eternally sorry for your wife or girlfriend - or mom. I am sure when the tendies aren’t deep fried to perfection, they feel your wrath.
Sad.
September 10th, 2019 at 4:35 PM ^
Penn State is probably not up because it hasn't been determined if it's at night or not? I imagine that's worth a point or point and half, but what the hell do I know.