Matt Hinton from Last Year: 5 Ingredients of a Title Contender.
Matt Hinton re-upped this article on twitter recently, and I dove back in with fresh eyes. Last year, when it was published, it didn't seem to have much Michigan relevance...
But this season it is very much worth checking out. I won't duplicate the content here, but these ingredients in particular were notable:
2. A First-Term Coach
Read to see just what he means. But yeah, we've got that. And it makes the importance of this season all the more significant.
3. A Defensive Line of Doom
Check.
4. A Stellar Secondary
Check here too.
It really is quite insightful and worth reading the whole thing with Michigan-tinted glasses. Also notable: Read the section on "Having a Proven Quarterback." Spoiler: It's not where you think it is at all.
Is it September yet
I'm excited for the season. I guess I need to count sheep until September.
unhealthy obsession with sheep.
A variation on that is
Just because I built a brick barbeque grill that doesn't make a brick layer, but...
decorum prohibits me from finishing that.
Unhealthy is in the eye of the beholder. I think our obsession is at the right level given their potential for comedy and the fact that our colleagues at Michigan Agricultural College are, undoubtedly, having sex with them(y'know for research) even as we speak.
I expect Michigan to be #1 in scoring defense. They don't face offense with a pulse except for Indiana and OSU (to some extent Iowa because of Bethard and their running game, but Michigan match up well against Iowa defensively. However, Iowa always seem make the game a lot closer than it should be). If Michigan defense struggles against Indiana, we can probably expect the same against OSU.
for over a year now, so he should be ahead of early season Ruddddock. He should be similar to late season Rudock form after the Hawaii game.
That's presuming O'Korn is the starting QB.
I'm looking forward to football!
I still think Brandon Peters has a chance to win the job. Because he is coming in new, he may progress more than anyone else in the offseason. We'll see whether he progresses past everyone else or not. I am rooting for O'Korn to win the job, though, cause it would suck to transfer and then just sit on the bench.
Either way, I think Speight, O'Korn and Peters will all be competent by September due to great coaching and the amount of effort they are putting in.
and...can throw the bomb along with settling for the checkdowns. I think Peppers should be the checkdown 93% of the time too... :)
EDIT: Or at least on 2nd or 3rd and longs but what do I know!
I'd say we grade out pretty damn given those requirements. Couple more TD's on D & ST this year and I'd dare to say we would be the highest graded team.
If you win in the redzone, win on third downs, and win on special teams you are going to win a ton of ball games.
delete.
Is Hinton writing anywhere now?
Grantland had just really started to cover college football extensively when it was killed. It's too bad. Michael Weinreb isn't missed, but both Hinton and Holly Anderson (who seems to be politics editor at MTV News) were good reads.
And UM would seem to get 3 clear checks (First-term coach, DL of Doom, and Elite Secondary). Don't think we'd clear the elite recruiting bar given the two down years under Hoke (players that will be sophomores and juniors this year... apart from Peppers). Might be mitigated, though, by the fact that Hoke's best classes are redshirt seniors and seniors this year.
Agreed on recruiting. The lower average of the class speaks to the challenges of next season; this year looks pretty good.
I liked that part and we will be just fine!
has future NFL players on OL in Backus, Hutchinson, and Jansen. Something that this year Michigan don't have. Mason Cole is the only one that we can be certain that is a NFL player as an interior OL. I'm not sure on Mangusson because of his inconsistencies as blocker.
on the team is with the OL. They at least return 4 starters and have the coaching transition behind them.
The o-line depth is the real scary part. If the line sees any significan injuries, they're plugging in either players who have failed to impress (Kugler, Dawson) or redshirt or true freshmen.
The OL really SHOULD be fine this season. Yeah, some of its components haven't developed as well as we had hoped. And the history is not great. But this line is now both experienced and unquestionably well-coached. They should be fine.
Apart from that, the '97 comparisons are inevitable and in one form or another have been used on every single Michigan team since, with the possible exception of 2008 (though I didn't follow the preseason discussion that closely). From a strong D standpoint that is correct; I actually think our offense has more potential than the 1997 offense by a good margin. 1996 and 1997 were actually Lloyd Carr's least talented offenses in the skill positions by a significant margin.
This year's offense has a first-round draft pick at TE and a future NFL player in Chesson. And real strength everywhere else, given the questionmark at QB. And it is much better coached.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol
The results there (especially ranking 107th in opportunity rate) leaves the question of being well-coached an open one.
I'm a believer in Drevno and think we'll make big strides in run-blocking this year but there is very little depth once again. The OL remains a OK-at-best unit and possibly an injury away from playing another true freshman.Butt is no lock for the 1st round and his weakness is blocking which exacerbates the OL issue.
I do think the receivers are potentially far better than '97, but even the best case scenario for the run game isn't nearly as strong.
The "unquestionable" fact was the coaching of the offense as a whole, where Harbaugh/Drevno are an upgrade over anything offered in the Carr years. Obviously, Michigan's OL play was excellent for most of the Carr era, but Drevno has both the pedigree and the track record to suggest that his OLs will be as good as any in the country going forward.
The 1997 running game featured Chris Howard and Clarence Williams with freshman Anthony Thomas getting occasional cameos. It was adequate; it was not awesome. They spent a lot of time just running the ball into the line. Our memories of 1997 are so (rightly) fond that we forget how limited the team was on offense. Games against substantially inferior opponents were theoretically "in touch" far longer than one would expect.
The key is that the 1997 team was the one instance in Carr's career where the offense never needed to be anything more than that. When you have that defense bearing down on the opponents with Woodson at the back, punting was almost never a bad idea.
I expect this year's offense to perform at a consistently higher level. Some of that has to do with the era, but I would be surprised if they ranked as low in points-per-game as 1997 did (48th out of 112).
If by "going forward" you mean "at some point down the line" - I will agree the OLs can be elite. At this point the Michigan OL ceiling is competance. The best case scenario is "not holding the offense back". The worst case scenario is doom. That's not Drevno's fault (yet) but his share of the responsibility will go over 50% starting next year.
You are correct that the 1997 team was not a great rushing unit - yet. I agree that my memory has probably overrated that offense and time has blurred the 99 and 00 teams with the '97 team. That one did have a great deal of OL talent, but it was young still.
Indeed the combination of dominant D and don't-mess-up O is appropriate for 2016 (as it was in '97). I'm not sure we have an impact freshman like Anthony Thomas on the way (though I really like Johnson or Mcdoom to inject life into the offense) but I think the WRs and Butt are more dangerous than Streets/Knight/Shaw/Tuman.
BTW, that 1997 team against Hinton's calculus?
1. Great recruiting classes. Unverifiable but evident: Check.
2. First-term head coach: Check
3. Killer DL: Check
4. Great Secondary: CHECK
5. Creative scoring: Check
Caveat about the myth of experienced quarterbacks? Griese had started before, of course, but was never the first-choice guy until 1997. Kind of check there, too.
I was going to say we have Harbaugh now and, much as I love Carr, that's an upgrade. But it's worth noting that the assistants on that 97 team were pretty dang impressive in hindsight:
Bobby Morrison, As Michigan's recruiting coordinator, he helped Michigan secure recruiting classes ranked in the top ten nationally in seven of eight years 1996-2002
Greg Mattison, (NFL DC, etc. -- pretty good)
Vance Bedford, (current Texas DC)
Brady Hoke, (current Oregon DC)
Jim Herrmann, (NFL LB coach since 8-year run as Michigan DC)
Mike DeBord, (current Tennessee OC - say what you want but Tenn went from 51 to 22 in offensive FEI, finishing 11 spots above Michigan last year)
Terry Malone (current Purdue OC after long run as NFL TE coach)
Erik Campbell,Fred Jackson, (elite college position coaches whose NFL resumes speak for themselves)
Stan Parrish (not a stirring resume but presumably he had a significant role in developing Griese and Brady)
It'll be interesting to see what becomes of the 2016 staff in the years to come.
Mattison wasn't on that staff. He left in the offseason to go to ND. Herrmann was the DC.
Given all our veteran DLmen, I think you can argue he made a major contribution. But you are right.
on "creative scoring" too. The offense is pretty unique and creative, though it's much harder to see our offense as creative compared to Oregon.
Be sure to read the content. Hinton is referring to the ability to produce scores in ways not covered by base offense, such as special teams and turnovers.
An above post mentioned the Chesson return, but neglected the Lewis Pick-Six. I am hopeful that the defense's talent and aggression translates into a lot of "creative" scores, as it were. The potential is there, we'll have to see what happens on the field.
I missed that. Thanks!
Just think if our LB play is better than expected! This will be a lights out defense. All we will need is a running game and an average QB who will not make big mistakes.
As soon as he left Dr. Saturday it became garbage almost immediately. Probably tied with Brian for my favorite blogger-type guy