Looking back at the Game Preview
So, just went back through Brian's game preview of the TCU game, as opposed to Alex's FFF. Suffice it to say, it wasn't exactly predictive.
In Brian's defense, on the offensive side the coaches did not try to involve JJ in the run game early, as he expected and thought they should. However, I think that has something to do with the fact that, like Brian, they thought that the blitzball which TCU used very effectively against Texas would not work against us. Spoiler, blitzball was in fact very effective against us. Our doubles and zone run game just didn't work at all, as Brian had expected.
Our pass protection was also a lot worse than Brian predicted. TCU's D-line was winning waaaay more than expected. Michigan also did not go to play action as early or often as Brian thought we might, which baffles me quite a bit, but probably a result of us being down so much so early and having such little success in the run game.
On defense Brian did not think that the TCU line was athletic enough to gash us with the run, and that our D-line would be good at collapsing the pocket and containing Duggan. This did not pan out. This may be because Morris was not fully operational, but even with that said, the veteran TCU line was very effective at swallowing up our tackles with double teams. And with our D-line more than neutralized, our linebackers were either too confused to fill gaps or were occupied with other concerns to the point that TCU had a field day in the run game.
Other predictions about what Michigan might be able to exploit just didn't materialize because of things like Dononvan Edwards still not being able to be a factor in the passing game and Luke Schoonmaker going down early. I also think that Brian underestimated how well TCU would prepare for us. He read too much into how much trouble TCU had with mediocre opponents during the regular season, perhaps underestimating the teams TCU played, and not giving Sonny Dyke's and his staff enough credit for how they could shore up some of their weaknesses with 4 weeks to practice.
Personally, I think we were not ready for TCU's speed. It caught us off guard and forced us to make mistakes. I also think that the month off really let some rust set in, and we did not get nearly as healthy with all that recuperation time as I thought we would.
Bottom line, we couldn't have really known what to expect given that we never play teams like TCU or the Big 12 style of play. And our coaches really seemed to either not know what to do with it, or just overlooked what TCU was capable of because they assumed our lines were just so much better than TCU's that they didn't get the team properly prepared. I believe that if we played them ten times we could win six or seven, and if we had a healthy Corum, and Schoonmaker, as well as a two-handed Edwards this would have been a different game as well. But coulda, woulda, shoulda. TCU caught Jim and company on the back foot and an unprepared team made way too many mistakes.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:28 AM ^
Football really is a box of chocolates which is part of why we love it. We blow away teams that are supposed to crush us and play like crap against teams we are supposed to beat. Wonders of the world.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
Well on the national stage, Michigan always seems to get the one filled with toothpaste.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
Just one of those days. Started with a horrible call on 4th and goal. Always get on the scoreboard first in such a game. All went to crap after that...and that is OK.
What a fantastic season. So grateful. Nothing like the first 6 years which were a so beyond disappointing and frustrating. I will take a year like this every year and be beyond grateful.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:40 AM ^
Agree, and surprising because Harbaugh is such an old-school coach. But this is an old-school tenet of football on the road. Get on the scoreboard first.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
You guys seem to suggest they should have kicked a field goal which would have been a very bad decision and you only say it in hindsight.
The mistake was the play call. It was awful. Going for it was smart. But good lord call a better play.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:43 AM ^
This really was a great season, the only disappointment is that on top of the bad things outside our control that happened in the last game, we gave it away as well, to a degree, doing so many baffling, uncharacteristic things at the finish line, so we'll be left imagining what could've been for this team, instead of what was.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
That is the most disappointing thing . . . the other 3 teams in the CFP played great games when it mattered most, while Michigan played one of its worst games of the year.
Six very bad Michigan plays represented a 42 point swing:
- The two Pick-6's,
- The two Blitz-6's,
- The fumble at the goal line,
- The Philly Not-So-Special.
And yet we still were driving for the win at the end of the game.
Change those six very bad plays to merely five very bad plays . . . and we win the game and are playing for the National Championship.
It was a bewildering, inexplicable loss.
It might be the worst loss in Michigan history in terms of what could have been versus what did not need to be.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^
So now we're calling out Brian for getting it all wrong in the preview because we have hindsight available?
WTF, man???
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
Relax.
I'm not calling him out. I'm just comparing his prediction to the outcome. If I'm calling out anyone it is the coaches for doing a shit job at preparing the team.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
I didn't read it that way, but I'll accept this and remove the neg!
I agree that the coaches (and scouting staff) did a shit job of prepping the game. IMO, they arrogantly underestimated the opponent and came out with a generic offensive plan similar to what they'd do against Rutger.
That they were able to change direction at halftime and buy into letting JJ and Roman play backyard ball is a credit. But it's not a plan...
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
They really didn't change direction enough at halftime though. JJ still only ran once...ONE single time on a designed run in the second half (not counting the 2 pt conv). And the most infuriating thing about it was that it was a 20+ yards TD run. After it happened, I was just angry that it took them three quarters do it. And then didn't do it again. Not a single zone read keep despite the edges being wiiiiiiide open.
Also, how many times are we going to watch other teams do QB sneaks against us before we realize, you know what, QB sneaks are pretty good at getting one yard?
Just a completely baffling offensive game plan. And the blitzs on defense were obviously bad. Not sure if that's just a hindsight thing (ie, were blitz's working well on other plays and just got burned twice, were there also blown assignments on those plays). I wasn't impressed with Duggan's ability to sit in the pocket and make throws and thought we should have let him do that, but just my two cents.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
The "month off" notion is no longer as accurate/applicable as it once was. Back in the Bo/Mo/Lloyd days it was almost always painfully obvious... our last game was normally the week before Thanksgiving and our bowl games were often Jan 1 (*over* one month between games). We always looked slow & rusty when playing against teams that had an extra 1-2 weeks in their regular season (sometimes we were able to overcome it, often not).
Yet now... it was still in the same calendar month between games and all of the other CFP teams had the exact same layoff period (officially anyway... I cannot speak about practice schedules and any other prep actions that may have been undertaken).
My two-day old assessment is still the same as my two-minute old assessment: they looked underprepared for this specific opponent and overconfident in their own strategies.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Ohio State did not play since November. Yet they still looked fresh as a daisy and ready to play.
January 2nd, 2023 at 2:06 PM ^
They had 1 more week off because 45-23.
45-23
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
I believe it was on the Mgopodcast where one of the guys (can't remember who) said the caveat was "outliers" in the form of turnovers, special teams scores, etc. Michigan suffered 3 catastrophic events in the form of two pick 6's and the goal line fumble. Effing up the first 4th down is not really a catastrophic event. With 3 catastrophic events, the game still came down to the last play. Michigan scored 45 points. The offense did their part aside from a couple eff-ups. They were not outclassed or too slow. Michigan outsmarted themselves a couple times and had some bad luck against a very determined, good team who gained extra fuel from DISRESPEKT and the momentum they had in the game.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
I wholeheartedly agree with this game assessment. Like everyone else, I was pissed about overthinking the first goal line situation. I would have liked to seen a field goal to assure points or if we go, a power run or run-pass option instead of the trick play there.
Had it worked, we would have been applauding the imagination to use it. Calling timeout made the choice less optimal. And it would be the start of three failed entries inside point blank scoring range with no TD's in the first half. Michigan killed itself and most of us acknowledge that.
I've read a lot since the game ended that if Michigan had only handled the ball properly from inside the one on the Wilson overturned score that the call would have made no difference. But the what if doesn't wipe away 6 points on the board, it's a backhanded slap saying prove it again.
But why?The Wilson catch was a TD and I was upset more about that reversal than with the fumble that ensued, and still am.
That call wasn't hard to make and it was called a TD on the field without sophisticated reasons for altering it. Wilson had to secure the catch before it could be considered one whether he was over the goal line or not. Which is what happened. And when he did, he was over the goal line. How hard is that?
Harbaugh had noted in his joint press conference on Friday with Sonny Dykes that momentum shifts would dictate play and performance. No truer words were spoken because McCarthy with the gunslinging appeal of a Cold Mountain optimist who relies heavily on the confidence of youth fired his second of two passes to the wrong team for scores which sent his school 19 points down late in the third quarter, only to miraculously revive comeback chances minutes later with his legs. If only the defense would have obliged the opportunity. But they were too busy not getting to Duggan on either blitzes or option runs, then allowing TCU's Oline gash Edwards-like runs for their second fiddle running back after their top guy was injured.
Michigan should have won but didn't and there are lots of reasons why, good and bad.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
I know they were not as "catastrophic" ( if that is a thing), but Michigan also benefitted from 3 turnovers.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
You aren’t beating many top 25 teams with 2 pick sixes and 2 empty trips from inside the 2 yard line. That’s a 24-28 point swing.
TCU was better than expected on the lines. We blew it on defense with some questionable over aggressive calls. I do believe if it’s a closer game at half, it doesn’t become a Big 12 track meet, as we wouldn’t need to gamble as much.
TCU took what was given and won, but the loss was more UM pissing itself than anything else, which is why it’s so incredibly painful.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
As someone wrote elsewhere, it seems like we had too much time to prepare for the game and the coaches got too fancy installing new things, like the weird 4th down play with Loveland as the passer, or the short handoff to Mullings on the half yard line on first down, instead of sticking with things we had done well all year. TCU did seem very fast on defense, but we scored 40+, so we seem to have adjusted to that. We just pissed away too many points with mistakes and the pick 6’s. Gave them 14 and gave away 10-14 of our own. Without those mistakes, it’s an easy win.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of the game in a few ways, and would like to see the UFR. Absolutely agree about the lack of QB run game, and didn't like that they were more effective running. But they didn't exactly kill us with sustained drives. We were stopping them enough to win the game without 2 pick sixes and two long TD's on foolish and telegraphed deep safety blitzes.
On the other side, our running game was killed by run blitzes for which there was zero constraint of read option. This was an abomination. And while JJ was under some pressure, there were many times he had plenty of time to throw. He still has a habit of bailing laterally on closing pockets rather than stepping up to throw, and I think that made it seem like he was under more pressure. TCU had their share of pressure, but we put more pressure on Duggan than they did on us.
6 apocalyptic plays, two pick-6's, Mullings fumble, 2 unnecessary zero blitzes and the foolish Philly special when we should have run our best 2pt conversion or just kicked it. Those 6 plays were a 38-42pt swing. Hats off to TCU for making 4 of those plays against bad gaffs by UM. Two of those were totally unforced errors.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
Don't throw two pick 6s and the Wilson TD go differently and perhaps we win by two scores.
The analysis should begin and end with turnovers.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
I think the analysis should include running repeatedly into stacked boxes. I think I'd be annoyed by that even if Michigan had won.
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^
At some point, 13 TFL's is a choice.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
I would say the analysis should start with our first four trips to the red zone, where we called two total pass plays, only actually threw the ball once on a wide receiver screen everyone knew was coming, not a single throw into the end zone, and came away with 6 points. The last of these occurred when we were down 21-6 in the third quarter. 10 total plays, a single pass and wasted points littered all over the field. Apparently saying this makes me a maniac because we did this all year and it worked against Rutgers.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
It’s over man. Let it go. Gonna have another great team next year. That was JJ’s first season and he got better as the season went a long despite missing all last spring. JJ as a JR >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>this seasons JJ.
Congrats to team 143 winning 13 games back to back titles and winning at Ohio State. While one goal wasn’t accomplished this team accomplished a lot. Only one team this season can be national champs it’s hard. Stay positive.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
If one doesn't want to keep discussing a game many of us are still emotionally recovering from, then one could choose to not read a football message board. If you want to render lifestyle advice, maybe open up a life-coach practice.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
I'm not really torn up or overly bothered by the loss. I stopped letting Michigan losses eat me up about thirty years ago. I am just curious as to why we didn't beat a team we should have beat and looking at why people expected the game to go one way when it went a very different way. I obviously understand every football game, especially college games, have lots of surprises and are by nature unpredictable to a large degree. But there seemed to be broad consensus about certain advantages UM had in this game and game plans that they would try to exploit TCU. So I am exploring it just to indulge my own curiosity. I agree it was a great season. I expect us to be a good team next year, but I mean, I can be a little disappointed and scratch my head some can't I?
January 2nd, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
Exactly! Just getting to the CFP is a big deal (at least under the current format). It's frustrating that this opportunity was pissed away by glaring errors (both play calls and officiating). Nothing wrong with taking a little time to get over the missed opportunity.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:48 AM ^
Unpopular take: the game plan was suboptimal, but the line execution was worse.
I am grateful to our OL and DL for the season. I really think they made the season.
But similarly, I think that if they each execute better, we get a much different result this past Saturday. Zinter's and Mazi's postgame comments lead me to believe that they know this.
On the whole, if I had to choose between winning The Game but losing the semifinal or losing The Game and winning the CFP, I would prefer to beat OSU.
Obviously, I would rather go 15-0, but if November 26th was our championship, that's fine with me!
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Poor coaching and execution. That’s that.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
It was not poor coaching. It was over coaching. TCU played better.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
This is where I think the month off thing comes in to a degree.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
I agree on the OSU take, but it sure helps that they lost too.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
On OSU: I wouldn't be surprised if some Georgians assumed, using some sort of transitive rule across years, that they'd pound Ohio based on The Game's score this year and the ease with which they dispatched Michigan last year.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Agreed. To me it came down to the interior lines. I'd love to see a UFR, but it seemed to me that our DTs were frequently getting pushed back, while Olu and the guards were getting beat on the other end. Combine that with our insistence on pounding it into the center of the line until late in the game and you have the difference.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
I only listened to the podcast and did not read the article. I think you are mostly on point and the coaches did not have a great day.
To be fair, it was an upset and I think a lot of previews don’t hold up in those games.
Brian and crew were right on about needing to limit the explosive plays. He did say they would happen and they did. He did not predict we would go with zero blitzes. No one did.
He also assumed the running game would open up once we made them account for JJ as a runner. I still find it inexplicable that they did not do that and allowed a free hitter into the backfield from the edge on what seemed like every damn play. (Except for one scramble for a big gain follower by a student body right QB run that went for a TD.) I think the coaches may have hoped to “save” JJ for a title game that is never gonna come this year. If so, that’s an obviously bad decision.
Brian was also clear that TCU would get points I don’t anyone could foresee that 14 points would come on two pick-sixes from a QB that was been good with the ball, aside from the double deflection against PSU and the playground throw against Purdue.
I believe that Brian and company may rely too much on the fancy stats and analytics and not factor in how random single elimination games can be. Shit just happens. Players get hurt, balls get fumbled and refs fuck up (boy, do they fuck up).
The playoffs will only add to that You’re gonna have two loss teams that get hot at the right time. There is going to be a lot more variance. I think this may catch Michigan fans off guard since many of us live in Michigan and, well, don’t have a ton of experience with the NFL playoffs.
All said, the previews are outstanding and the pods are more so. I thoroughly enjoyed them this year and in past years. They ain’t perfect and pointing that out is fair game. But, damn, they are really good. (To be clear, I don’t think we disagree there and don’t read your post as coming from a different place.)
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
also, teams will not have a month to prepare for one team.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
Good comments ... Also think they wanted to strategically save JJ for a Final. Throughout the year did not feel like had a proven backup necessarily. I also wonder if being so run focused we were maybe a bit easier to prepare for for the TCU defense. Maybe the Edwards first run was fools gold? Seems like it.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
I think your point about reducing JJ's exposure to injury in the semi (no chance in a final without him) "may" have entered into the coaches' thinking. (if that did enter into the thinking, then hindsight reveals that that was bad thinking). Every single analyst I heard including the Blog, thought our line could overpower them. The containment of Texas' star tailback was explained by : "yes, but Texas' offensive line is lousy (and ours is the best in the country)." There were plays where a keeper would have resulted in a chunk play (or at least it looked that way). Also tough to say how much we missed Schoonmaker's blocking (and his big target in our passing game.
The thing is TCU did not play anything like a perfect game. Their turnover deep in their own territory set up the short field which allowed us to cut the score to 41-38. Nowhere near as devastating as two pick 6s for sure.
Shortcomings were grave for us, but the fight in our team to keep coming back, when not once but twice, it looked like we were buried, is one thing that does speak well of the team. How many times have we seen other teams quit in similar circumstances? Quite a few times.
January 2nd, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
Other than Jim's first bowl game we have been out prepared the last 6. What is happening here? Are we trying to install too much new stuff instead of sticking with what we are best at? Are we too confident coming in? Or do we just suck as long term game planning?
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
Every bowl game under Harbaugh is playing catch up. Team always comes out flat or unprepared.
It falls right in line with his San Fran teams especially in the Super Bowl that they botched during the last play of the game after coming all the way back.
January 2nd, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
I’d say we were very prepared for 1) South Carolina, 2017, but then folded emotionally in the 4th quarter, and 2) Alabama, 2019, where we played well even though outmatched. Nothing would have helped against Florida in 2018. FSU, 2016, had similarities to Saturday.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
Don’t overthink it. TCU was a good team and when you play good teams, it’s tough to overcome two pick sixes, multiple missed opportunities in the red zone that left points off the board, poor timing on blitz calls that gave up huge plays to TCU, and the refs botching two video reviews (one that took points off the board and changed the dynamics of the game, and a second that took away one last, improbable crack at getting into the end zone). For Michigan to overcome all of that and be within six points of TCU was a borderline miracle, and shows a great culture and preparation to slowly inch back. The team was calm and resilient, and had a confidence that they could come back which only comes from great preparation.
Michigan probably wins if it throws one fewer interception, plays more conservatively on defense for one more play, gets one video replay to stand, or scores one more red zone touchdown. For me, that’s why it’s tough to stomach this loss. It truly was one more play going our way or a game of inches or whatever cliche you want to use.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
Can we please stop with the speed comment, MICHIGAN HAVE SPPED TOO. We should have scored 60 on their defense. MICHIGAN coaches STOPPED MICHIGAN damn. If people would have actually looked at TCU you would have saw that they were go give us problems but we should have scored 60. How would the score 60 -38 look because that is what I saw. Stop with the speed comment because MICHIGAN have speed too. This is not the 90s.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
I think this was the fastest team we faced and we weren’t used to it. The LBs got down hill and came off the edge in ways we just didn't seem ready for. 13 TFLs is a speed thing period. Sorry.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
Their backers were playing 6 7 yards deep, our linemen kept opening up the back gate, we stayed on blocks too long. We never made them uncomfortable. I think losing Schoonmaker kind of hurt the running game. Also, we should have got rid of the FB and put him in the HBACK position that would have taken care of that SPEED problem. The lineman were outnumbered due to alignment of offense on the backside.
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
To be fair to Brian, I am not sure if anyone would have predicted this...on the Athletic, out of like 20-25 writers, one predicted a TCU win.
Not sure if it was a case of not respecting TCU enough, or believing in your system so much that you didn't think you would have to change it wrt to running between the tackles as opposed to more counters, misdirection...also surprised that there were no RPOs in the first half.
It wasn't until the second half adjustments that they started to let JJ play more loose. Kid is a sophomore, so don't want to be too hard on him, but the second INT was just a bad play - it looked like there was a receiver at the second level that was more open imo...(the first INT was a great play by the DB, though a very, very tight window).
the Philly Special and Mullings fumble were examples of Michigan beating themselves - TCU didn't do anything on those plays...even if both were simply FGs Michigan would have taken the game to OT.
I was not surprised TCU was able to move the ball, as Purdue of all people was able to move the ball on offense and QJohnson is much better than Charlie Jones...Dykes coached under Mike Leach, coached Goff in college and Riley is Lincoln's brother...so that offense was going to be schematically dangerous...It was tough to know about personnel until they were running in phase on the same turf.
TCU was fast, but Michigan was equally fast imo...TCU certainly didn't blow Michigan's doors off with their speed like their fanbase said they would as Michigan figured things out in the second half to a degree and were able to go step for step with them.
The OLine struggles were very surprising though and TCU deserves a ton of credit for being able to negate the OLine
Its fair to say Michigan got outcoached in this one - it wasn't a lack of talent like last year. TCU was much better prepared, and their players didn't shoot themselves in the foot. They absolutely need to practice two and four minutes drills.. the lack of urgency on offense on the last two possessions were astounding to me, but par for the course under Harbaugh regardless of OC inexplicably
The Georgia game is going to contextualize this loss a lot for me....If TCU keeps it within 7 points, they "could" simply be the real thing...If Georgia paves them over, well, that brings up more questions for me.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^
Excellent points. However even though I didn't like the use of Mullings the last 3 games given his lack of experience, a slo motion replay of the fumble makes it difficult to blame on him. JJ never really got the handle on the snap and sort of bobbled the hand-off.
January 2nd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
thanks
I wasn't blaming Mullings per se, rather just pointing out Michigan errors that were not a result of anything that TCU did...I guess 'fumble at the goal line' would have been a more neutral identifier.
History is written by the victors; if the Philly special worked and the fumble didn't occur, we'd have a different perception of those plays and play calls
January 2nd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Im about halfway through the 2nd quarter right now and what I see as far as our oline play is tcu played a very similar defensive gameplan to osu with one stark difference. Instead of having all their lbs at the line they let them sit back 5 yards. I just watched hodges sit 5 yards deep for about a 2 count, he waited until zinter turned away from him to help olu on the nt and then he rushed and it led to a sack. Ive seen this happen multiple times so far on run and pass plays. They got free rushers by NOT SHOWING blitz. This is something i had not seen them do much of during the season. During the season they would line up at normal lb depth but on any run action they were crashing immediately.