A Look at Tanner Mangum
Thought I'd take a quick look at the very small sample size of Tanner Mangum to try to extrapolate what we can expect. Also for those interested in further reading a lot of nice nuggets from an ESPN article on the guy - he sounds very impressive off the field. Eagle scout, cello, choir....didn't have to serve a mission (Detmer, Steve Young, Bosco chose not to) but chose to. 22 month mission to Chile where you can only Skype 2x a year with parents and otherwise you are in your own world outside of 1 email a week - didn't have a hot shower for a year. It's a way to build mental toughness. He is 22 and only a freshman but in the same class as Winston who is now a rookie in the NFL; matched Winston at Elite 11, and was 3rd ranked composite QB in his class.
The other interesting part is what former BYU players were saying - it takes up to a year to build up muscle mass and memory when you come back from a mission ... which makes a lot of sense considering the lack of exercise. So it makes Mangum's work thus far that more impressive.
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In terms of style of offense there are not many Big 10 offenses who play like BYU as we are a run oriented league but it's sort of a mix of Indiana and MSU in terms of downfield throwing. More MSU in style except not as run oriented like MSU is. BYU is almost 180 degrees different from UM right now which emphasizes passes to TEs and running backs... the vast majority of BYU pass attempts go to receivers. Mangum himself is just a pure QB, not a dual threat like Taysom Hill was. But for being 3 games in and not playing a single bad team he has been efficient and a quality player, while showcasing the ability to get bombs down the field to tall receivers. He does throw INTs. He was sacked 4x by both Boise and UCLA.
He also apparently enjoys rolling right in the pocket:
Bruins defensive coordinator Tom Bradley saw on video that in the first two games, Mangum went 13-of-28 when he stayed in the pocket, and 9-of-11 when he rolled to his right. UCLA allowed Mangum to roll to his right only four times.
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[Averages below are yards per completion, not per attempt]
Vs Neb (in emergency duty when Hill went down)
- Stat line: 7-11 (63.6%), 111 yds, 15.9 ave, 1 TD, 0 INT
- Stat line minus Hail Mary: 6-10 (60.0%), 69 yds, 11.5 ave
- Distribution: All 7 pass completions to wide receivers
Note - Nebraska's pass D gave up 313 yds to South Alabama & 379 yards to Miami. Seems like a below par pass D.
Vs Boise
- Stat line: 17-28 (60.7%), 309 yds, 18.2 ave, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Stat line minus 2 bombs (70 & 84 yds): 15-26 (57.7%), 155 yds, 10.3 ave
- Distribution: 15 of 17 pass completions to wide receivers, 2 to rbs
Note - Boise's pass D gave up 150 yds to Washington & 262 yards (on a ridiculous 59 attempts) to Idaho State. Seems like a solid pass D.
Vs UCLA
- Stat line: 30-47 (63.8%), 244 yds, 8.1 ave, 1 TD, 1 INT
- No bombs this game, longest pass was 19 yds as UCLA did good job of not letting receivers go over the top.
- Distribution: 27 of 30 pass completions to wide receivers, 2 to rbs, 1 to self (assuming deflection)
Note - UCLA's pass D gave up 238 yds to Virginia & 56 yards to UNLV (Decker was hurt after 6 attempts and his backup is horrid). Seems like a solid pass D.
Composite
- Stat line: 54-86 (62.8%), 664 yds, 12.3 ave, 4 TD, 3 INT
- Excluding 3 bombs: 51-83 (61.4%), 468 yds, 9.2 ave
- Distribution: 49 of 54 pass completions to wide receivers (91%), 4 to rbs, 1 to self (assuming deflection)
Based on the pass distribution we will certainly have our first real ability to tell what we have in the secondary after this game.
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:44 AM ^
It's Mangum, but I like where your head's at.
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:48 AM ^
oops fixed. thx.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:10 AM ^
He may be a promising young quarterback, and I am not terribly excited for Michigan to face him this weekend, but no matter what happens, his name will always sound like a brand of malt liquor...
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
My fear is that Mangum will have a Robbie Bosco-like game. Check out this stat line from the last time we played BYU:
http://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/football/bowls/1984holi.htm
UM couldn't pass for shit, couldn't run the ball enough to make up for it, and couldn't hold Bosco in check when it counted.
September 23rd, 2015 at 2:34 PM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:49 AM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:57 AM ^
I would assume UM will try to mimic UCLA and try to keep everything underneath rather then allow the big plays he has quickly become famous for. If 19 yds is the maximum completion UM should be in solid shape defensively.
On the other side of the ball BYU gives up a lot of passing yds but also leads the country with 7 INTs.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:36 PM ^
Well now we know it's not gonna happen
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
this is still 'merica.
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
Thanks for this. The only thing I'd say is your "average" can be misleading since you're doing Yards per Completion instead of the usual Yards per Attempt metric, so those numbers look amazing, especially compared to Rudock's 5.6 YPA or whatever he had last week.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
Jake's ypc = 9.9 (it was 11.4 last year @ Iowa, and 11.7 two years ago)
There is no perfect measure because yards after catch can have a huge variance. Obviously Mangum didn't toss the ball 84 yds in the air in 1 of his completions.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
Right, was going to say Mangum's composite YPA of 7.7 is still very impressive.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
It's solid not great. 56th in the nation.
People who watch a lot of Big 10 football are more awed by these stats than if you watch a lot of Pac 12 football ;) Kessler is at 10.4, Goff is at 9.7, Browning (wash) 9.5, Adams 8.7. Only comparable guy in Big 10 is Sudfeld. Big 12 also has 5 guys north of 9.7! - Baylor, OK State, West Va, TCU,Oklahoma
I am a big believer you can't look at YPA or completion % in isolation. They have to be looked together.
Jake has a decent completion % (mid 40s) but putrid YPA (in the 90s nationally) as he is checking down and throwing to rbs a ton. Joey Harrington football at its best. Mangum has about the same completion % as Jake but but ypa is about 30 slots higher than Jake.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
The UCLA factoid about him rolling right -
If he was 9 of 11 on passes when he rolled right, that averages to 5.5 attempts per game. Then they stick in "UCLA ONLY allowed him to roll right 4 times." Well, Mr. Sportwriter, that is only 1.5 times fewer than his average. Stupid statistic. For some reason that irked me more than it probably should have.
September 23rd, 2015 at 1:20 PM ^
Mangum only played 1 quarter vs. Nebraska, so he had 11 rollouts in 5 quarters going into the UCLA game. You could say this is 2.2 rollouts to his right per quarter, which equals 8.8 per game, but I don't think this is the best way to look at it. Looking at it on a percent of passes he rolls to his right, he had 11 rollouts on 39 attempts before the UCLA game. With 47 attempts vs UCLA, one would expect roughly 13 rollouts to his right (11/39*47). The numbers can be manipulated to say UCLA held him to 9 less than expected, which I think would be pretty good.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
Oh, that's yards per completion? Yes, then that is very misleading, especially with a ~60% completion percentage.
OP - YPA is the standard. Either use that, or specify otherwise.
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
i'm optimistic about our secondary in this game. After 2 INTs last week and Mangum's 3 INTs in 2+ games I think we'll get at least one INT this week.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
I'm tempted to predict at least 2 INTs. He's going to be pressured a number of times. A seasoned QB takes the sack or throws it away. Freshmen QBs tend to try to chuck it up anyway.
The unfortunate thing is that all of BYU's WRs are 7' tall so chucking and praying has been working for Mangum thus far
September 23rd, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
be right, but it's hard enough for me to predict one INT!
September 23rd, 2015 at 3:10 PM ^
I'm not sure our road venue is much more of an advantage than other stadiums he's already played in this season.
I'm hoping we get one interception.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^
My concern is that BYU plays keep-away with this guy, slanting and fading down the field to receivers only the MBB team could cover.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
Is there a reason you prefer YPC and not YPA? I usually like the latter since it accounts for incompletions.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:07 AM ^
That can be useful as well, but it's hard to get a feel for what that really means because every other place will show YPA so comparing him against other QBs is difficult.
I have an idea what a very good, average, and poor YPA is. I don't know that for YPC.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
YPA does a better job of showing on how aggressive QB is at throwing the ball. Higher YPA means they're throwing downfield more.
YPC is misleading because you can throw a WR screen that goes for 90 yards. You think he's an aggressive thrower based on YPC, but it's really not if that's the case.
Generally anything higher than 8 YPA means the QB is successful and efficient.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
Not sure I agree with that theory. Both YPC and YPA are flawed due to yards after catchh. I could go 5 for 9 for 200 yards by throwing 5 six yard passes at my own 30 yard line that the receiver runs for 40+ yds. So that is a guy who "threw" for 30 yds but benefited from 170 YAC. Both YPC and YPA would be inflated by the YAC.
YPA will benefit a guy with a better completion % since by defintion less of his attempts are being recorded at 0 yards (i.e. incompletions)
I chose completions because I wanted to see how long the average completion was. Again noting it is not perfect because of YAC influence.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:45 AM ^
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September 23rd, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
How so? An incompletion affects a 30 yard pass with no YAC the same as a 5 yard pass with 25 YAC. Neither of them take YAC into account.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^
A fair counterpoint. YAC negated a bit by the 0 YPC created from incompletes in YPA.
All these acronyms make me feel like I am working for a Fortune 500 again.
September 23rd, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
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September 23rd, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
Right. But it does so proportionally to all yards... so...
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
I feel a stupid argument brewing so let me give an example.
QB1 goes 10/20 for 250 yards, with 150 yards being YAC.
If we measure his YPC - it is 25.0. If we measure his YPA - it is 12.5
QB2 goes 10/20 for 250 yards, with 50 yards being YAC.
If we measure his YPC - it is 25.0. If we measure his YPA - it is 12.5.
Am I missing something here, or is this a really dumb debate?
September 23rd, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
At QB play only (not the passing game as a whole) it does seem YPA vs. YPC is only relevant if you then adjust for YAC. At a high level I suppose YPA would give a better sense of efficency and YPC how aggressive/downfield the QB is.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:03 AM ^
He just got back from a mission trip and is 38 now.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
lol how long are these fucking mission trips?
September 23rd, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
You're on the mission till you lock in at least 3 wives. A lot of guys get hung up on #2 sadly
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^
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September 23rd, 2015 at 11:04 AM ^
From what I saw of Mangum is that if you take away his first read he tends to panic a little and start getting antsy in the pocket. This is to be expected as he is still a freshman. He struggles with intermediate throws and likes to throw it up to his tall receivers.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^
Would have posted a new Thread, but just created the account. Thought I would post under the most recent BYU topic.
Wanted to wish you guys good luck on Saturday. I am scared of your running game. After recently being thrashed by UCLA's run game, and seeing some of the highlights has me very nervous.
Anyway, I have never been to a game at Michigan, but my father and I are going to make the trip from D.C. We will have all day Friday to check out the area. Are their things that are must see, or places to eat that you would recommend?
Also, you feel like if we are respectful fans we shouldn't have any issues during or after the game? Tickets through BYU ticket office sold out very quickly so I believe I will be buried within Michigan Faithful.
Very excited to check out your school and stadium.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
You wont have issues with UM fans. This isnt an outhouse like in Columbus.
UCLA has Paul Perkins behind a very good OL. We do not. I actually think UM will have trouble running on BYU -BYU did a good job vs both Nebraska (126 yds) and Boise (64 yds). I'd say our run game is more at Neb level (post Abdullah) at this point than anything UCLA is trotting out. We struggled vs a very good run D at Utah and even in the 2nd half vs an awful UNLV while we did fine vs a bad Oregon state with a 3 man front. BYU doesnt look as good as Utah on run D but far better than UNLV or Oregon St.
You held Neb to 126 yds on 37 carries. I expect UM to try to run about that many times. hopefully for > 150.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
Hadn't heard that one in a while.
Anyway, I have never personally seen Michigan fans treat opposing fans poorly, especially non-rivals, so I doubt you'll run into problems. There is also a "where to eat in Ann Arbor" tab, under "Useful Stuff" at the top of the page, and it is only slightly outdated.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^
This is great, thank you.
September 23rd, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
Ann Arbor has a handful of decent microbreweries as well, some of which have decent food menus. If interested, just search on Ann Arbor Breweries and you'll find them. Enjoy your weekend!
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
When I was in school, the classic places that you "had" to go to eat as a student were Blimpy Burger and Zingerman's. Blimpy is the ultimate greasy spoon burger joint, Zingerman's is a deli type place. I also used to love getting breakfast at Angelo's since I used to live right by it.Since I've graduated, I've heard great things about Frita Batidos but I've never been there.
If you're a beer man, make sure to stop by Ashley's. It's been rated one of the best beer bars in the country and has an outrageous selection of beers on tap. I also loved Jolly Pumpkin Cafe and brewery as they have good food and great beer of their own.
As far as trouble from Michigan fans, I don't think you should have any as long as you're not obnoxious or rude. However, if you're walking to the stadium from campus (so down State St. and over on Hoover) you're going to be in a mass of UM students and walk past a bunch of house parties. The patrons of said parties have been known to start chanting "Asshole" when they see fans wearing the away team's clothing. But that's about as severe as I've ever seen it get.
Have fun in Ann Arbor! It's a great city.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
Excellent, thanks for the tips.
September 23rd, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^