Joaquin Update (Promising)

Submitted by SugarShane on

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/235910.shtml?5-daynl

 

Latest projections have moved back the northward movement by one day.  The storm projects to be well south of the DC area this weekend, and now has a late Monday/early Tuesday projected impact on DC area.

 

  

 

 

Predictions of precipitation aren't even nearing 50% Saturday afternoon/evening, and we're now close enough to make a decent prediction of weather that day.  Can't see any way this game gets cancelled.  Even an earlier kickoff would be overkill, IMO

MGoBoard

LSAClassOf2000

October 1st, 2015 at 7:10 AM ^

Even with the plots for Joaquin changing, they threw Flash Flooding Watches out there all over the DC area, as far south as about Virginia Beach and all the way up towards New York City. The NWS office out of Sterling, VA is looking for four inches - four more inches rather - Friday night into Saturday. Even with Joaquin's weather added to the mix, getting to Byrd Stadium sounds like it could be an experience.

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130816

DreisbachToHayes

October 1st, 2015 at 7:33 AM ^

I live in the area.  Even if the hurricane doesn't hit the coast and runs parallel, or if it hits way south or way north, the area is still screwed due to the tons of rain that will come anyways (some predicting up to 10 inches locally)...on top of the good amount from the last few days.  Ground already saturated.  Will get some winds too.

Flooding, downed power lines, etc.

I think the main concern isn't going to be the field conditions, it is whether or not Harbaugh and his team of men will be able to get in and out of the city in a timely manner.  Looks pretty unlikely with an 8pm game time.

FWIW, my best guess is that it will be at an alternate location.  Not that I know anything.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 9311

Blue Crab

October 1st, 2015 at 7:39 AM ^

That's when the latest US global model (GFS) results become available and the latest Nat'l Hurricane Center's "complete advisory" comes out. The last two runs of the GFS model have Joaquin farther east and slower as mentioned earlier. If the next model run continues tht trend, that is good news, indeed!

Joined: 10/27/2014

MGoPoints: 669

Brick in The Wave

October 1st, 2015 at 7:49 AM ^

These names don't strike fear in the hearts if human beings. Joaquin, Sandy, Isabel? No wonder people refuse to evacuate during a hurricane. Got to name them things like Death, Caranage, Sodomy that gets people running.

Joined: 05/17/2011

MGoPoints: 2421

BlueinLansing

October 1st, 2015 at 7:54 AM ^

this is more about being able to fly in and out of the airport.   The 8pm kickoff means Michigan won't leave the area until 2am, previous forecasts put that right around the time of the heavier winds arriving.  Worst case would be the team being stuck waiting out a 2 day storm or having to drive home or drive further inland to another airport to get them home.

 

If moving kickoff up to noon gets Michigan out of the area before the bigger winds they'll do it.

 

I'm not positive but I'm pretty sure Big Ten teams fly into Baltimore when playing the Terps.  Dulles and Baltimore are almost equidistant from College Park.  Unless there is another airport that can handle, say a 737 or 757, closer that I'm not familiar with.

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 23532

BlueinLansing

October 1st, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^

DCA because of the curfew, and because its frankly just harder to get to from College Park than Dulles or BWI.

 

For airports I'm not aware of i was thinking more military like.  ie.  OSU flys out of Rickenbacker instead of Port Columbus.

 

I'm almost certain athletic teams use BWI when flying to Maryland.

 

Joined: 09/01/2009

MGoPoints: 23532

switch26

October 1st, 2015 at 8:21 AM ^

This was forecasted yesterday that it was not going to rain til after the game.. Yet everyone on here said it was going to be a disaster

Joined: 02/04/2010

MGoPoints: 8309

SpikeFan2016

October 1st, 2015 at 8:24 AM ^

They also decreased the amount of expected precipitation from the the "normal", non-tropical rain system currently in the area.

 

Now it says 1-2 inches instead of 3-4 inches. Big improvement. Only a 40% chance of light showers on Saturday too.

 

Also, I know it has been raining a bit this week, but the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast had very, very dry Augusts and Septembers, meaning that the ground can hold a bit more water than usual without flooding. 

 

Not worried anymore!

Joined: 04/03/2015

MGoPoints: 6659

BlueMyself

October 1st, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^

This is actually correct. In fact, it may be BETTER to fly home on Sunday (at least under current forecasting) than Saturday evening. The front currently hammering the East Coast will be much worse Friday - Saturday midday. Saturday Night may actually provide the best window to play the game, especially since Joaquin's arrival (and any additional storminess) is continually being pushed back (Monday eveing at the easliest). This is important for plane's attempting to leave on Sunday because the wind is projected to be almost 10 mph less than on Friday or Saturday (or Monday or Tuesday if Joaquin hits).

Joined: 06/05/2013

MGoPoints: 161

ChalmersE

October 1st, 2015 at 8:43 AM ^

Here's the latest from the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/01…

Notwithstanding Joaquin's delay, etc., I'd bet on a noon start for several reasons:

-- It's already started to rain in DC and the flooding appears to be a significant and likely potential.

-- Saturday night is predicted to be worse than Saturday day.

-- They're not going to want 30,000 people hitting the roads after lots of rain near midnight when it's difficult to see flooding, etc.

-- If they play at noon, the team can fly back to Michigan before things get worse.

-- And, finally, they have to decide essentially now. They can't wait until Saturday morning and say let's play at noon.

Joined: 11/19/2008

MGoPoints: 5196