I don't have enough confidence in Michigan to beat ND. Change me,

Submitted by Braylon1 on

Do I want to feel this way? No. Not at all. I want to see Michigan beat ND so badly that that they can't even see straight. I loathe Notre Dame this time of year. I have respect for their program and tradition but not when they play Michigan. Michigan is the better school, has better history, a better fanbase, and so on and so fourth.

Unfortunately, I'm struggling to find enough reasons to make me believe Michigan beats ND this Saturday.

One can't deny what's working in our favor. Denard. Improved scheme defensively, etc. Healthy Woofolk. Big House, at night at home, etc. I'm aware of those things.

Some things working against us..

  • No Hagerup
  • Very questionable kicking game along with special teams issues last week (although I do think adjustments will be made for kickoffs)
  • Change in offensive scheme that in my opinion will limit the offense enough to the point where Michigan can't keep up its pace under what would be another year in RR's spread. I think last years offense allowed a comfortability for Denard in the passing game when we ran the ball effectively. I get nervous when I think about Denard going through read progressions.
  • ND had a good grasp on the game last year before their starting QB suffered injuries. Now, both are healthy
  • ND defense did very well last week despite the offense turning the ball over 5 times. Coupled with our change in scheme, and yes it is a change despite trying to play to Denard's strengths, I am nervous here.
  • ND gained over 500 yards of offense in bad weather.
  • Michigan LB play is in question. Demens is doing what he can but the loss of Mouton was significant when you consider current depth.

I did enjoy hearing from Borges in this week's press conference that Michigan barely got into the offense. So, I'm not writing off our offense based on what we've seen. At the same time, the offense will need to really come through because ND is going to move the ball.

I have faith in the coaching staff and this football team. I can't help feeling like the underdog in this one for the reasons listed.

Please make me wrong.

 

MGoBoard

Blue boy johnson

September 9th, 2011 at 4:19 PM ^

Michigan has the most improved defense of the Millennium, plus it's at home and a night game and ND's quarterback will melt under the spotlight.

Also, in case you forgot, we gots Denard! Remember last year vs UConn, Denard had no big plays (by Denard's standard), but busted out some long ones on the ground and through the air against ND.

For the third time in recent history Michigan 38 ND 0

Joined: 03/15/2009

MGoPoints: 6668

mfan_in_ohio

September 9th, 2011 at 4:55 PM ^

1.  ND's punts were worse than ours in Week 1.  Also, Denard == not much punting.

2.  ND missed a chip shot FG last week.  Also, it's not like our placekicking can be worse than the two missed FGs Gibbons had last year. /furiouslyknockingonwood

3.  Our non-Denard running game should be dramatically improved over last year.  Remember that ND didn't really know what to expect from Denard, so they focused on taking away the RB in the read option, which opened everything up for Denard.  Expect more RB runs and more success.  Also, Denard's passing reads are not as complicated as you would see for a senior pocket-passer with multiple years of experience in a system.  After looking at two or three receivers, he should be trained to take off.  Think Terelle Pryor 2008-2009.  One-two reads, then run.

4.  Crist could not have had a "good grasp of the game" since he got injured at the end of the first drive.  By the same standard, Carder had a good grasp of the WMU game halfway through the first quarter.  Crist was not as dominant in the 2nd half as we sometimes think.  His drives in the 2nd half were as follows:

Long TD pass on Cam Gordon derp 1.

66-yard drive for a chip-shot FG.

GRITty first play INT by Kovacs

One 1st down, then punt.

One 1st down, then punt.

Three-and-out on 3 straight incompletions.

Long TD to Rudolph on Cam Gordon derp 2. 

Two completions to Floyd as the clock expires.

That's seven meaningful drives, with two derps by Gordon and a single sustained drive.

Verdict: competence at deep safety might have resulted in ND only scoring 3 to 10 points in the second half.  Meanwhile, Michigan missed two makeable FGs (GIBBONS AARGH) and manufactured a scoring drive when they needed it, and won.

5.  USF's offense is atrocious.  Here were the points they scored against BCS competition last year, even assuming that the Big East qualifies as a BCS conference:

at Florida: 14 pts. (loss)

vs. Syracuse: 9 pts. (loss)

at West Virginia: 6 pts.(loss)

at Cincinnati: 38 pts. (win)

vs. Rutgers: 28 pts. (win)

at Louisville: 24 pts (win in OT)

vs. Pitt: 10 pts. (loss)

at Miami: 23 pts (win in OT)

 vs. UConn: 16 pts. (loss)

vs. Clemson: 31 pts (win)

That's under 20 points per game in a conference not known for defense, and including two OT games.  They are not good.

6.   Half of the game was played with USF in a prevent defense playing not to lose.  Also, almost 20% of their yardage came on a fairly meaningless late-game drive where USF was protecting a 10-point lead with under 2 minutes to play.  Also, with USF's offense being as bad as it was, ND had thirteen drives.  They ran exactly twice as many plays as we did last week.  They should get over 500 yards if they have the ball that many times. 

7.  Michigan LB play should not drop off much (if any) from last year.  Demens is starting full time, Ezeh graduating is a net plus, and Mouton had well-established issues with keeping containment.  The current LBs already seem better-coached (judging by Brian's picture pages on Herron), and Jake Ryan has already made a massive contribution.  However, of the seven things you mention, this is the only one that still seems like a real concern. 

Now look at ND's concerns:

1. Our QBs keep throwing picks, and our "best" one isn't playing Saturday.

2. Our coach keeps turning purple and yelling mean things.

3.  We couldn't stop Denard last year, and nothing about our defense has changed, except maybe it got worse.

4.  Michigan isn't playing Cam Gordon at safety anymore, so the source of 58% of our points from last year is gone.

5. Under the Lights at the Big House is a little tougher environment than home against crappy Big East team.

Convinced yet?
 

 

 

Joined: 01/26/2009

MGoPoints: 18216

MichiganMan2424

September 9th, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^

I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.

Joined: 03/09/2011

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